Legislatures in the 21st Century(North of the Border)

Prepared for the Border Legislative

Conferenceby Thad KousserAugust 26, 2005

State Legislatures in the U.S.: Changing Faster Than Ever

Who Do We Want Our Leaders to Be?•Professional politicians or citizen lawmakers?

•Short-term servants or veteran experts?

The Consequences of Institutional Change•Who goes to the capitol?

•What goes on in the capitol?

•What comes out of the capitol?

Party Polarization: Causes and Effects of a Clear Trend

Legislative Professionalism:Making Public Service a Full-Time Career

The History of the Idea•In ancient Rome’s Republic, Senators had

to quit their day jobs

•By contrast, legislators in Renaissance Florence maintained their outside careers

Legislative Professionalism in the States•Starting with California’s bipartisan Prop.

1A in 1966, some states began to turn their part-time legislatures into professional bodies that operated like the US Congress

Legislative Professionalism: Not Every State Wants It

California’s legislature became the most professional in the nation by the 1980s:•High salaries made service a full-time job

•Sessions grew from two months to all year

•Staff assistance enabled the legislature to stand up to lobbyists and governors

New Mexico is still a proud citizen legislature with short sessions, a small staff, and no annual salary.

Legislative Professionalism: Not Every State Wants It

Legislative ProfessionalismProfessional (10)Hybrid (28)Citizen (12)

Legislative Professionalism: Not Every State Wants It

California Texas Arizona New Mexico

Session Length

22 months 12 months 13 months 6 months

Total Salary $93,200 $19,550 $19,900 $8,645

Staff per Legislator

20.9 10.9 5.2 0.4

Source: Karl Kurtz, National Conference of State Legislatures.

Term Limits: Can We Take the “Career” out of “Career Politician”

The History of the Idea•Aristotle argued for “All over each and each

in turn over all,” and Athens had term limits.

•America’s Articles of Confederation had term limits, but the Constitution rejected them.

Term Limits in the States•In the early 1990s, nearly all states with

initiatives followed the lead of Mexico, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and the Philippines by enacting term limits.

Wherever There is Direct Democracy,

There are Term Limits

Term LimitsStates without term limits (29)States with overturned limits (4)States with term limits (17)

Consequences of Institutional Change: Who Goes to the Capitol?

Professional bodies attract a different type of legislator•Members are more likely to come from

government (local office or state staffs)

•Members are more likely to keep running

Term limits did not succeed in turning back the clock to re-create citizen legislators•Post-term limits legislators are even more

likely to come from local government, and they try to stay in office

Who Goes to the Capitol?Term Limits Accelerated Demographic

ChangeRacial and Ethnic Composition of the California Assembly, 1990-2002

69

63 6258 57

5154

7 6 74 4 4 44

10 10

16 1722

16

0 1 1 2 2 36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Num

ber of

Ass

embl

ymem

bers

White

Black

Latino

Asian

Data collected from appropriate editions of the California Journal’s Roster and Government Guide.

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Goes On in the Capitol?

Compared to citizen legislatures, professional chambers:

•Have more stable and more powerful leaders, with Speakers and Senate Presidents lasting longer and exerting more influence

•Give more power to committees, their chairs, and their staffs

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Goes On in the Capitol?

After term limits, leaders serve for short periods and committees lose power•“There has been an essential evisceration of

the hearing process … Nothing dies anymore, and there are no rules.” – Former California State Senator who chaired various committees

•“Since term limits, there is less scrutiny of legislation and less quality in both houses, but a much steeper decline in the Assembly.” – California Senate committee consultant.

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Goes On in the Capitol?

Gatekeeping in California’s Policy Committees

Percentage of Bills that Fail in Committee

Before Term Limits

After Term Limits

Assembly Committees

26.6% 18.2%

Senate Committees

21.0% 14.8%

Total 23.8% 16.5%

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Comes Out of the Capitol?

“Innovation” is an important function of state governments in a federal system

•Citizen legislatures produce fewer “innovative” laws than professional bodies

•Term-limited legislatures produce fewer “innovative” laws than they did before term limits

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Comes Out of the Capitol?

Average CSG “Innovation Award” Winners, by type of legislature.

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1987-88

1989-90

1991-92

1993-94

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

Professional

Hybrid

Citizen

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Comes Out of the Capitol?

The Legislative vs. Executive Branch Balance of Power

•Professional legislatures were designed to stand up to governors, and they appear to be more powerful in key areas like budget negotiations

•Term limits has reduced the role of legislatures in budget negotiations and in oversight of the executive branch

Consequences of Institutional Change: What Comes Out of the

Capitol?

Total Changes Made to Governor’s Budget Proposal

16.2

3.5

10.3

6.1

26.5

2.1

6.7 6

2.14.0

19.2

5.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

California($99,250)

Illinois($52,527)

Colorado($22,186)

Oregon($19,678)

Maine($12,920)

NewMexico($6,612)

State (Salary)

% C

han

ge

in G

ove

rno

r's

Req

ues

t

BeforeTermLimits

AfterTermLimits

Partisan PolarizationA Clear Trend Since the 1960s

California Federation of Labor Scores in the Assembly for the Median Member of Each Party, 1933-1999

0

20

40

60

80

100

1933 1941 1949 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997

Democrats

Republicans

Partisan Polarization:Potential Causes

Voters’ and legislators’ ideologies now match up with their party labels

Professionalization makes leaders more powerful, allows them to keep members in line

Campaign finance rules make social interactions more rare

Term limits reduce familiarity

National politics is polarizing

Partisan Polarization:Potential Effects

Members of the minority party are not able to pass as many bills•Majority members “batting averages” are usually

over 0.500, while minority party members bat around 0.300.

Compromise is rare and gridlock is typical when legislators no longer have common interests

The stakes of redistricting battles are even higher than ever

Partisan PolarizationWere the Good Old Days All That Good?

"And how are you today, Mr. Legislature?"

– California lobbyist Artie Samish, quoted in Colliers Magazine, August, 1949.