lecture1-s - Computer Science · – Design systems to achieve desired outcomes • Economic...
Transcript of lecture1-s - Computer Science · – Design systems to achieve desired outcomes • Economic...
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CS286r: Topics at the Interface between Computer Science and Economics
Fall 2008
Social Computing
Coursewebsite:h9p://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/
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Computer Science
• is the study and the science of the theore@calfounda@ons of informa@on and computa@on andtheir implementa@on and applica@on in computersystems.[Wikipedia,Sep.2008]
– Buildingsystems– F(x)=?– Howfastcanwegettheanswer?– Focusoncomputa@onalandinforma@onalconstrains.
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Economics
• isthesocialsciencethatstudiestheproduc@on,distribu@on,andconsump@onofgoodsandservices.[Wikipedia,Sep.2008]
– Economies(systems)
– Manyself‐interestedagents– Agents’preferences/u@li@esoveroutcomes
– Agents’informa@onandbeliefs
– Agents’decisionmaking– Game‐theore@cinterac@onsofagents
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The Interface • Computersystemsareincreasinglybeingdevelopedand
usedbymul@plepar@eswithdifferentpreferences– Predictsystemoutcomes– Designsystemstoachievedesiredoutcomes
• Economicproblemssome@mesare(hard)computa@onalproblem– Resourcealloca@on– Pricediscovery
Theories, algorithms, and systems that satisfy both economic and computational constraints.
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Lots of Compelling Applications
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• InternetMone@za@on:
Google,Yahoo!,MSNareusingauc@onstosellads
• SocialnetworkandSocialTagging:Facebook,MySpace,LinkedIn,Flickr,LibraryThing
…
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This Course
• Rota@ngtopiccourse– Fall2008.SocialCompu@ng
• Previous– Spring2008.Computa@onalFinance
– Spring2007.Computa@onalMechanismDesign– Spring2006.Mul@‐agentLearningandImplementa@on
– Spring2004.Itera@veCombinatorialExchanges…
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Social Computing
• hastodowithsuppor@ng“computa@ons”thatarecarriedoutbygroupsofpeople,anideathathasbeenpopularizedinJamesSurowiecki'sbook,TheWisdomofCrowds.[Wikipedia,Sep.2008]
• Relatedterms:Collec@veintelligence,Web2.0,Folkonomy,…
Undertherightcondi:ons, crowdsaresmarterthanexperts.
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Crowds Are Smarter…
• Whowantstobeamillionaire?– Fiky‐FikyCorrect50%ofthe@me
– Phone‐A‐Friend
– AsktheAudience
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Crowds Are Smarter…
• Jelly‐Beans‐in‐the‐JarExperiment– ProfessorJackTreynorrantheexperimentinhisclass– withajarthatheld850beans– thegroupes@matewas871– onlyoneofthe56peopleintheclassmadeabe9erguess
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James Surowiecki
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VideoSource:youtube.com
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Are Crowds Smarter?
• Noalways– Badcommi9eedecisions– Endlessgroupmee@ngs
• Inthiscourse,wefocusontheanalysisanddesignofInternet‐basedsystemsthatsupportcrowdstoachievesome“computa@onal”goals.
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Structure of the Course
• Introduc@ontoGameTheory(4lectures)– Normalformgame,extensiveformgamewithperfectinforma@on,extensiveformgamewithimperfectinforma@on,andBayesiangames
• CurrentResearchPapers– Predic@onmarkets (Aggregateinforma@on)– SocialChoice (Aggregatepreference)– PeerProduc@on (Buildknowledgesources)– HumanComputa@on (Makehumandothework)– Reputa@onSystems (Determinera@ngs)– ScriptSystems (Facilitatetransac@ons)
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Enrollment & Prerequisites • Enrollmentislimitedtoabout20students.Complete
Surveyatendofclass!• Prerequisites– Mathbackgroundisimportant!Atleastabasiccourseinlinearalgebra(suchasM21b,AM21b,orequivalent)
– Basicunderstandingofprobabili@es– Atleastanalgorithmcourse(CS124,orequivalent)– [email protected]/gametheorycourse.
Advancedcourseinalgorithms,microeconomics,gametheory,orlinearprogrammingarehelpfulbutnotrequired.
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Grading
Problemsets 25% 2‐3homeworkproblemsets
Par@cipa@on 20% Readingpapers,submiqngshortsummariesandques@onsbeforeclass,andpar@cipa@oninclassdiscussion.(Note:Absentstudentsrarelycontributetodiscussions.)
Presenta@onofoneortworesearchpapers
15% [email protected].
Project 40% Projectproposal,classpresenta@on,andfinalreport.
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Project
• Goal:developadeepunderstandingofaspecificresearchareaandtotheextendpossibletoworkonanopenresearchproblem.
• Canbetheore@calorexperimental.• Canbealiteraturereview,butneedsnovelty!• Alistofhigh‐levelprojecttopicswillbeprovided.Youareencouragedtoproposeyourowntopicforapproval!
• ProposalsduearoundThanksgiving.Presenta@onsduringreadingweek.Projectreportsattheendofreadingweek.
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Logistics
• TFs– ShailiJai– DimitriosAntos
• OfficeHours– Yiling:Wed11‐12,Thu3‐4,MD339– Shaili:Tue2‐4,MD2ndfloorlounge– Dimitrios:TBD
MissedcoursematerialsfromtheTFs
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Overview of Course Topics
• Predic@onmarkets
• SocialChoice • PeerProduc@on • HumanComputa@on
• Reputa@onSystems • ScriptSystems
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CNBC Features Intrade, 8/25/08
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Bet = Credible Opinion • Q:WillObamawinthePresiden@alelec@on?
• Beqngintermediaries– LasVegas,WallStreet,Bewair,Intrade,...
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McCainwillwintheelec:on
Info
Ibet$1000Obamawillwintheelec:on.
Info
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Prediction Markets • Apredic@onmarketisafuturesmarket(beqngintermediary)thatisdesignedforinforma@onaggrega@onandpredic@on.
• Payoffsofthetradeditemisassociatedwithoutcomesoffutureevents.
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$1ifObamaWins
$0Otherwise
$1×Percentage of Vote Share That
Obama Wins
$1 if Patriots win
$0 Otherwise $f(x)
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Prediction Markets
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PM Problems to Discuss
• Socialinfluenceoninforma@onaggrega@on
• Newmarketmechanisms
• Manipula@onofmarketprices
• Combinatorialbeqng
• Distributedcomputa@on
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A Combinatorial Betting Example
• 251outcomes,2251combina@ons
• Allowpar@cipantstobetonlogicalformulas– Createcontractsonthefly:$1ifOhioANDFloridaORNewYork,$0otherwise
– Specifybuypriceandquan@ty• Thematchingproblem:howtoclearthemarket• Computa@onallyhard!(co‐NP‐complete)
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Voting
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> >
> >
SocialChoiceMechanism
> >
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Social Choice Problems to Discuss
• Hardnesstomanipulate– Almostallreasonablevo@ngrulesaresubjecttomanipula@on
– Computa@onalcomplexitybecomesagoodthing
• Fakediden@ty– New7WondersoftheWorld:“Jordan,withapopula@onof7million,managedtocastover14millionvotesfortheirarcheologicalsitePetra.”
• Rankingsystems
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Manipulate Voting
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> >
> >
SocialChoiceMechanism
> >
?
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PageRank as A Social Choice Problem • PageRankisattheheartofsearchengines
• Nodesasagents;linksasvotes;PageRank=>findasocialranking
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€
PR(u)∝ PR(v)L(v)v∈Bu
∑
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Peer Production • Alargenumberofpeoplecoordinatedintocomple@ngmeaningfulprojects.
• Crowdsourcing
• Whatareregulari@esofpeerproduc@onsystems?• Howtokeepgoodstuffinandbadstuffout?
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Human Computation • CoinedbyLuisvonAhn.• U@lizingthecomputa@onalabili@esofhumanbeings• Anexample:ESPGame–LabelingtheWeb
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CAPTCHA: Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart
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Reputation Systems
• FacilitatetrustinInternetinterac@ons
• Examples– eBay– Epinions– BizRate
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Reputation Systems Problems to Discuss
• Valueofreputa@on
• Whitewashing
• Elicithonestfeedback
• Sybila9ack– PageRankcanbeconsideredasareputa@onsystem
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Script Systems
• Ar@ficialcurrencysystemsthatcanbeusedingroupdecisionmaking,peer‐to‐peersystems,andetc.toachievebe9erefficiency.
• Howdoscriptsystemschangetheefficiencyandbehavioroftheoriginalsystems?
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Next Class
Gametheory!
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