Lecture 2: Serial correlation -...
Transcript of Lecture 2: Serial correlation -...
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Lecture 2: Serial correlation
Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics
Andrzej Torój
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 1 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Outline
1 What is serial correlation?
Variance-covariance matrix
Consequences of serial correlation
Exercise2 Testing for serial correlation
Testing
Exercise3 Dealing with serial correlation
Robust standard errors
Generalised Least Squares estimator
ExerciseAndrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 2 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Outline
1 What is serial correlation?
2 Testing for serial correlation
3 Dealing with serial correlation
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 3 / 37
![Page 4: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Variance-covariance matrix
Variance-covariance matrix of ε
E(εεT
)= E
ε1ε2
.
.
.εT
[ ε1 ε2 . . . εT] = E
ε21
ε1ε2 . . . ε1εTε1ε2 ε2
2. . . ε2εT
.
.
.
.
.
....
.
.
.
ε1εT ε2εT . . . ε2T
=
=
E (ε1 − E (ε1))
2 E (ε1 − E (ε1)) (ε2 − E (ε2)) . . . E (ε1 − E (ε1)) (εT − E (εT ))
E (ε1 − E (ε1)) (ε2 − E (ε2)) E (ε2 − E (ε2))2 . . . E (ε2 − E (ε2)) (εT − E (εT ))
.
.
.
.
.
....
.
.
.
E (ε1 − E (ε1)) (εT − E (εT )) E (ε2 − E (ε2)) (εT − E (εT )) . . . E (εT − E (εT ))2
=
=
var (ε1) cov (ε1ε2) . . . cov (ε1εT )
cov (ε1ε2) var (ε2) . . . cov (ε2εT )
.
.
.
.
.
....
.
.
.cov (ε1εT ) cov (ε2εT ) . . . var (εT )
OLS assumptions=
σ2 0 . . . 0
0 σ2 . . . 0
.
.
.
.
.
....
.
.
.
0 0 . . . σ2
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 4 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Variance-covariance matrix
Spherical disturbances
σ2 0 . . . 0
0 σ2 . . . 0.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0 0 . . . σ2
a spherical matrix
more general than identity matrix
more restrictive than diagonal matrix
zero non-diagonal elements (if broken: serial correlation)constant diagonal elements (if broken: heteroskedasticity)
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 5 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Serial correlation in data
no serial correlation positive negative
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Residual Actual Fitted
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Residual Actual Fitted
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Residual Actual Fitted
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 6 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Does serial correlation cause bias?
E(β)
= E((XTX
)−1XTy
)=
= E((XTX
)−1XT (Xβ + ε)
)=
= E((XTX
)−1XTXβ
)+ E
((XTX
)−1XTε
)=
= β +(XTX
)−1XTE (ε) = β
unbiasedness of OLS proved did we use the assumption of
spherical disturbances ε?
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 7 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
NO!
...but note that
serial correlation can be a symptom of misspecication......which in turn can bias the estimates
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 8 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
NO!
...but note that
serial correlation can be a symptom of misspecication......which in turn can bias the estimates
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 8 / 37
![Page 10: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Does serial correlation cause ineciency?
Recall: β = β +(XTX
)XTε (do the previous derivation without
the expected value operator)
Var(β)
= E
[(β − β
)(β − β
)T]=
= E((
XTX)−1
XTε · εTX(XTX
)−1)
=
=(XTX
)−1
XTE(εεT
)X(XTX
)−1
= ...
under spherical disturbances: E(εεT
)= σ2I
... =(XTX
)−1
XTσ2IX(XTX
)−1
= σ2(XTX
)−1
XTX(XTX
)−1
=
σ2(XTX
)−1
(square roots of diagonal elements are standard errors of estimation)
under non-spherical disturbances: E(εεT
)= Ω
... =(XTX
)−1
XTΩX(XTX
)−1
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 9 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Does serial correlation cause ineciency?
Recall: β = β +(XTX
)XTε (do the previous derivation without
the expected value operator)
Var(β)
= E
[(β − β
)(β − β
)T]=
= E((
XTX)−1
XTε · εTX(XTX
)−1)
=
=(XTX
)−1
XTE(εεT
)X(XTX
)−1
= ...
under spherical disturbances: E(εεT
)= σ2I
... =(XTX
)−1
XTσ2IX(XTX
)−1
= σ2(XTX
)−1
XTX(XTX
)−1
=
σ2(XTX
)−1
(square roots of diagonal elements are standard errors of estimation)
under non-spherical disturbances: E(εεT
)= Ω
... =(XTX
)−1
XTΩX(XTX
)−1
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 9 / 37
![Page 12: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Does serial correlation cause ineciency?
Recall: β = β +(XTX
)XTε (do the previous derivation without
the expected value operator)
Var(β)
= E
[(β − β
)(β − β
)T]=
= E((
XTX)−1
XTε · εTX(XTX
)−1)
=
=(XTX
)−1
XTE(εεT
)X(XTX
)−1
= ...
under spherical disturbances: E(εεT
)= σ2I
... =(XTX
)−1
XTσ2IX(XTX
)−1
= σ2(XTX
)−1
XTX(XTX
)−1
=
σ2(XTX
)−1
(square roots of diagonal elements are standard errors of estimation)
under non-spherical disturbances: E(εεT
)= Ω
... =(XTX
)−1
XTΩX(XTX
)−1
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 9 / 37
![Page 13: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
YES! The assumption of spherical matrix used explicitly in the
derivation!
If broken...
loss of eciencydistorted statistical inference based on variance-covariancematrix of the error term, including t-tests of variablesignicance recall from previous lecture:
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 10 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Sources of serial correlation
inertia and persistence of economic phenomena:
serial correlation approach (accept the serial correlation andtry to improve the eciency and statistical inference)
specication error (misspecied functional form, misspecied
dynamics, omitted variables)
re-specication approach (modify the model specicationuntil serial correlation vanishes)
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 11 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Sources of serial correlation
inertia and persistence of economic phenomena:
serial correlation approach (accept the serial correlation andtry to improve the eciency and statistical inference)
specication error (misspecied functional form, misspecied
dynamics, omitted variables)
re-specication approach (modify the model specicationuntil serial correlation vanishes)
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 11 / 37
![Page 16: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Consequences of serial correlation
Re-specication approach: idea
True model: yt = β0 + β1x1,t + β2x2,t + εtEstimated model: yt = β0 + β1x1,t + εt
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 12 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Exercise
Exercise (1/3)
Gasoline demand model
Our regression model explains the log-demand for gasoline percapita (log_Q_gasoline) with the following variables: log fuelprice (log_P_gasoline), log per capita income (log_Income)and log prices of new and used cars (log_P_new_car andlog_P_used_car , respectively). Model should contain a constant.
1 What is the consequence of using logged variables for theinterpretation of the regression results?
2 Which signs of the estimates do You expect? How do theseexpectations relate to familiar microeconomic theories?
3 Write down the estimated equation.
4 Were the expectations from point 2 fullled?
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 13 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Outline
1 What is serial correlation?
2 Testing for serial correlation
3 Dealing with serial correlation
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 14 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Durbin-Watson (1)
Durbin-Watson test
H0 : error term has no serial correlation of order 1
H1 : error term does have serial correlation of order 1
DW =
T∑t=2
(εt−εt−1)2
T∑t=1
ε2t
≈ 2 (1− ρ)
where ρ correlation between εt and εt−1
Test statistics has its own distribution tables.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 15 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Durbin-Watson (2)
Limitations:
model with a constant
...without lagged dependent variable
...with normally distributed error term
detects serial correlation of order at most 1
inconclusive range
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 16 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Durbin-Watson (2)
Limitations:
model with a constant
...without lagged dependent variable
...with normally distributed error term
detects serial correlation of order at most 1
inconclusive range
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 16 / 37
![Page 22: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Durbin-Watson (2)
Limitations:
model with a constant
...without lagged dependent variable
...with normally distributed error term
detects serial correlation of order at most 1
inconclusive range
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 16 / 37
![Page 23: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Durbin-Watson (2)
Limitations:
model with a constant
...without lagged dependent variable
...with normally distributed error term
detects serial correlation of order at most 1
inconclusive range
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 16 / 37
![Page 24: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Durbin-Watson (2)
Limitations:
model with a constant
...without lagged dependent variable
...with normally distributed error term
detects serial correlation of order at most 1
inconclusive range
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 16 / 37
![Page 25: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
h-Durbin
DW test biased towards rejecting serial correlation when
lagged dependent variable is a regressor
see e.g. Nerlove, Wallis (1966)
Durbin proposed a modication to take account of that:
h-Durbin test
H0 : error term has no serial correlation of order 1
H1 : error term does have serial correlation of order 1
hd =(1− DW
2
)√T
1−T ·var(βy(t−1)))∼ N (0, 1)
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 17 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Lagrange multiplier
Step 1: regression equation estimated via OLS
yt = xtβ + εt β =(XTX
)−1XTy εt = yt − xtβ
Step 2: auxiliary regression for residuals from step 1
εt = xtβ + βk+1εt−1 + βk+2εt−2 + . . .+ βk+P εt−P
Under no serial correlation up to order P, the R2 of auxiliary
regression should be low.
Lagrange multiplier test
H0 : error term has no serial correlation of order up to P
H1 : error term does have serial correlation of order from 1 to P
LM = TR2 ∼ χ2 (P)Attention! Asymptotic test (short samples may distort the
inference).
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 18 / 37
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What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Lagrange multiplier
Step 1: regression equation estimated via OLS
yt = xtβ + εt β =(XTX
)−1XTy εt = yt − xtβ
Step 2: auxiliary regression for residuals from step 1
εt = xtβ + βk+1εt−1 + βk+2εt−2 + . . .+ βk+P εt−P
Under no serial correlation up to order P, the R2 of auxiliary
regression should be low.
Lagrange multiplier test
H0 : error term has no serial correlation of order up to P
H1 : error term does have serial correlation of order from 1 to P
LM = TR2 ∼ χ2 (P)Attention! Asymptotic test (short samples may distort the
inference).
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 18 / 37
![Page 28: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Lagrange multiplier
Step 1: regression equation estimated via OLS
yt = xtβ + εt β =(XTX
)−1XTy εt = yt − xtβ
Step 2: auxiliary regression for residuals from step 1
εt = xtβ + βk+1εt−1 + βk+2εt−2 + . . .+ βk+P εt−P
Under no serial correlation up to order P, the R2 of auxiliary
regression should be low.
Lagrange multiplier test
H0 : error term has no serial correlation of order up to P
H1 : error term does have serial correlation of order from 1 to P
LM = TR2 ∼ χ2 (P)Attention! Asymptotic test (short samples may distort the
inference).
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 18 / 37
![Page 29: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Testing
Ljung-Box
Ljung-Box test
H0 : error term has no serial correlation of order up to P
H1 : error term does have serial correlation of order from 1 to P
Q = T (T + 2)P∑j=1
1T−j ·
T∑t=j+1
εt εt−j
T∑t=1
ε2t
High values of Q imply serial correlation (reject the null).
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 19 / 37
![Page 30: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Exercise
Exercise (2/3)
Gasoline demand model
Look at our model.
1 Are the residuals serially correlated of order 1? Can we use
Durbin-Watson test?
2 Are they serially correlated of order up to 2? Use LM and
Ljung-Box test.
3 Is there serial correlation of order 2? Can we give a
conclusive answer?
4 Would the residuals be serially correlated if we considered a
model with additional lag of the dependent variable?
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 20 / 37
![Page 31: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Outline
1 What is serial correlation?
2 Testing for serial correlation
3 Dealing with serial correlation
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 21 / 37
![Page 32: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Robust standard errors
What are robust standard errors (and what they are not)?
formula for variance-covariance matrix of β, Var(β)= σ2
(XTX
)−1,
true only when errors are spherical
under serial correlation it is false, in particular:
the standard errors of estimation s(β0
)from the diagonal
Var(β)...
...t-statistics t = βis(β1)
...
...and conclusions concerning the signicance of variables
robust standard errors alternative way of estimating s(β0
)Choosing robust standard errors does not aect estimation results...
...but only the assessment of standard errors and the resulting conclusions as
regards the signicance of variables.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 22 / 37
![Page 33: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Robust standard errors
What are robust standard errors (and what they are not)?
formula for variance-covariance matrix of β, Var(β)= σ2
(XTX
)−1,
true only when errors are spherical
under serial correlation it is false, in particular:
the standard errors of estimation s(β0
)from the diagonal
Var(β)...
...t-statistics t = βis(β1)
...
...and conclusions concerning the signicance of variables
robust standard errors alternative way of estimating s(β0
)Choosing robust standard errors does not aect estimation results...
...but only the assessment of standard errors and the resulting conclusions as
regards the signicance of variables.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 22 / 37
![Page 34: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Robust standard errors
What are robust standard errors (and what they are not)?
formula for variance-covariance matrix of β, Var(β)= σ2
(XTX
)−1,
true only when errors are spherical
under serial correlation it is false, in particular:
the standard errors of estimation s(β0
)from the diagonal
Var(β)...
...t-statistics t = βis(β1)
...
...and conclusions concerning the signicance of variables
robust standard errors alternative way of estimating s(β0
)Choosing robust standard errors does not aect estimation results...
...but only the assessment of standard errors and the resulting conclusions as
regards the signicance of variables.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 22 / 37
![Page 35: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Robust standard errors
What are robust standard errors (and what they are not)?
formula for variance-covariance matrix of β, Var(β)= σ2
(XTX
)−1,
true only when errors are spherical
under serial correlation it is false, in particular:
the standard errors of estimation s(β0
)from the diagonal
Var(β)...
...t-statistics t = βis(β1)
...
...and conclusions concerning the signicance of variables
robust standard errors alternative way of estimating s(β0
)Choosing robust standard errors does not aect estimation results...
...but only the assessment of standard errors and the resulting conclusions as
regards the signicance of variables.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 22 / 37
![Page 36: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Robust standard errors
Newey-West robust SE
Newey and West (1987) robust to serial correlation (and
heteroskedasticity):
Var(β)
= 1T
T∑t=1
ε2t xtxTt
(XTX
)−1+
+ 1T
L∑l=1
T∑t=l+1
(1− l
L+1
)εt εt−l
(xtx
Tt−l + xt−lx
Tt
)whereby L arbitrary (L ≈ T
14 ).
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 23 / 37
![Page 37: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Generalised Least Squares estimator (1)
y = Xβ + ε ε ∼(E [ε] = 0,E
[εεT
]= σ2Ω
)With well-dened, symmetric matrix Ω...
...there is a unique decomposition Ω−1 = VTV.
Pre-multiply both sides of equation with V:
Vy = VXβ + Vε
The error term in this model is spherical:
var (Vε) = E[(Vε) (Vε)T
]= E
[VεεTVT
]=
= VE[εεT
]VT = Vσ2ΩVT =
= σ2V(VTV
)−1VT = σ2VV−1
(VT)−1
VT = σ2I
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 24 / 37
![Page 38: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Generalised Least Squares estimator (1)
y = Xβ + ε ε ∼(E [ε] = 0,E
[εεT
]= σ2Ω
)With well-dened, symmetric matrix Ω...
...there is a unique decomposition Ω−1 = VTV.
Pre-multiply both sides of equation with V:
Vy = VXβ + Vε
The error term in this model is spherical:
var (Vε) = E[(Vε) (Vε)T
]= E
[VεεTVT
]=
= VE[εεT
]VT = Vσ2ΩVT =
= σ2V(VTV
)−1VT = σ2VV−1
(VT)−1
VT = σ2I
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 24 / 37
![Page 39: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Generalised Least Squares estimator (1)
y = Xβ + ε ε ∼(E [ε] = 0,E
[εεT
]= σ2Ω
)With well-dened, symmetric matrix Ω...
...there is a unique decomposition Ω−1 = VTV.
Pre-multiply both sides of equation with V:
Vy = VXβ + Vε
The error term in this model is spherical:
var (Vε) = E[(Vε) (Vε)T
]= E
[VεεTVT
]=
= VE[εεT
]VT = Vσ2ΩVT =
= σ2V(VTV
)−1VT = σ2VV−1
(VT)−1
VT = σ2I
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 24 / 37
![Page 40: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Generalised Least Squares estimator (1)
y = Xβ + ε ε ∼(E [ε] = 0,E
[εεT
]= σ2Ω
)With well-dened, symmetric matrix Ω...
...there is a unique decomposition Ω−1 = VTV.
Pre-multiply both sides of equation with V:
Vy = VXβ + Vε
The error term in this model is spherical:
var (Vε) = E[(Vε) (Vε)T
]= E
[VεεTVT
]=
= VE[εεT
]VT = Vσ2ΩVT =
= σ2V(VTV
)−1VT = σ2VV−1
(VT)−1
VT = σ2I
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 24 / 37
![Page 41: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
GLS estimator (2)
Vy = VXβ + Vε
Assume that V (and, hence, Ω) is known. Then the estimation of
the original equation with GLS is equivalent to the estimation of
the above equation with OLS (using transformed data):
βOLS
=(XTX
)−1XTy
βGLS
=[(VX)T (VX)
]−1(VX)T (Vy) =
=[XTVTVX
]−1XTVTVy =
[XTΩ−1X
]−1XTΩ−1y
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 25 / 37
![Page 42: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
How to nd matrix Ω?
unknown and cannot be estimated in general (contains T 2
parameters under T observations)
but can be expressed as a function of a low number of parameters
this requires some assumption about the stochastic process for εt ,
e.g.:
εt = ρεt−1 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2I
), then Ω = Ω (ρ)
εt = ρ1εt−1 + ρ2εt−2 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2I
), then
Ω = Ω (ρ1, ρ2)etc.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 26 / 37
![Page 43: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
How to nd matrix Ω?
unknown and cannot be estimated in general (contains T 2
parameters under T observations)
but can be expressed as a function of a low number of parameters
this requires some assumption about the stochastic process for εt ,
e.g.:
εt = ρεt−1 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2I
), then Ω = Ω (ρ)
εt = ρ1εt−1 + ρ2εt−2 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2I
), then
Ω = Ω (ρ1, ρ2)etc.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 26 / 37
![Page 44: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
How to nd matrix Ω?
unknown and cannot be estimated in general (contains T 2
parameters under T observations)
but can be expressed as a function of a low number of parameters
this requires some assumption about the stochastic process for εt ,
e.g.:
εt = ρεt−1 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2I
), then Ω = Ω (ρ)
εt = ρ1εt−1 + ρ2εt−2 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2I
), then
Ω = Ω (ρ1, ρ2)etc.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 26 / 37
![Page 45: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
AR(1) example: Ω = Ω (ρ) (1)
Suppose: εt = ρεt−1 + ηt η ∼(0, σ2ηI
)var(εt) = var(ρεt−1 + ηt) = var(ρ2εt−2 + ρηt−1 + ηt) =
var(ηt + ρηt−1 + ρ2ηt−2 + ...
)= σ2η + σ2ηρ
2 + σ2ηρ4 + ... =
σ2η1−ρ2
cov(εt , εt−1) = cov (ρεt−1 + ηt , εt−1) = ρvar(εt−1) = ρσ2η
1−ρ2
cov(εt , εt−2) = cov(ρ2εt−2 + ρεt−1 + ηt , εt−2
)= ρ2var(εt−2) = ρ2
σ2η1−ρ2
...
Ω =σ2
η
1−ρ2
1 ρ ρ2 · · · ρT−1
ρ 1 ρ. . .
...
ρ2 ρ 1. . . ρ2
.... . .
. . .. . . ρ
ρT−1 · · · ρ2 ρ 1
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 27 / 37
![Page 46: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
AR(1) example: Ω = Ω (ρ) (2)
Under such circumstances, one can show that:
Ω−1
= 1σ2η
1 −ρ 0 · · · 0
−ρ 1+ ρ2 −ρ. . .
...
0 −ρ 1+ ρ2. . . 0
.... . .
. . .. . . −ρ
0 · · · 0 −ρ 1
V =
√1− ρ2 0 0 · · · 0
−ρ 1 0. . .
...
0 −ρ 1. . . 0
.... . .
. . .. . . 0
0 · · · 0 −ρ 1
Proof: Compute ΩΩ
−1(should be equal to I ) and V
TV (should be equal to Ω
−1).
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 28 / 37
![Page 47: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Feasible GLS in practice
Ω ← ρ
↓↑ε
Start: ↑βOLS → βGLS → y
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 29 / 37
![Page 48: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Feasible GLS in practice
Ω ← ρ
↓↑ε
Start: ↑βOLS → βGLS → y
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 30 / 37
![Page 49: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Feasible GLS in practice
Ω ← ρ
↓↑ε
Start: ↑βOLS → βGLS → y
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 31 / 37
![Page 50: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Feasible GLS in practice
Ω ← ρ
↓↑ε
Start: ↑βOLS → βGLS → y
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 32 / 37
![Page 51: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Feasible GLS in practice
Ω ← ρ
↓↑ε
Start: ↑βOLS → βGLS → y
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 33 / 37
![Page 52: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Generalised Least Squares estimator
Cochrane-Orcutt's method
Special case of GLS: 1st order serial correlation assumed.
yt = xtβ + εt εt = ρ1εt−1 + ηt
yt−1 = xt−1β + εt−1 ηt = εt − ρ1εt−1
Subtract both sides with second equation multiplied by ρ1:
yt − ρ1yt−1 = xtβ − ρ1xt−1β + εt − ρ1εtyt − ρ1yt−1︸ ︷︷ ︸
transformed independent
= (xt − ρ1xt−1)︸ ︷︷ ︸transformed dependent
β + ηt︸︷︷︸spherical error
Generalized Cochrane-Orcutt: serial correlation of higher orders.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 34 / 37
![Page 53: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Exercise
Exercise (3/3)
Gasoline demand model
Look at our model again and compare the estimates (and their
signicance) obtained with.
1 OLS
2 OLS with robust standard errors
3 Cochrane-Orcutt method
Discuss.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 35 / 37
![Page 54: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Exercise
Readings
Greene: chapter Serial correlation
Greene: chapter Nonspherical Disturbances The Generalized
Regression Model (sub-chapter about feasible GLS)
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 36 / 37
![Page 55: Lecture 2: Serial correlation - web.sgh.waw.plweb.sgh.waw.pl/~atoroj/econometric_methods/lecture_2_3_sc.pdf · Lecture 2: Serial correlation Econometric Methods Warsaw School of Economics](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081523/5fce61185191ac2f9b14574c/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
What is serial correlation? Testing for serial correlation Dealing with serial correlation
Exercise
Homework
Gasoline demand model
Write manually an R programme performing the GLS estimation
with AR(p) residuals, for any sensible value of p. Use it to estimate
the version of the model with AR(2) residuals.
Other models
Do the exercises specied in the comments of the R code.
Andrzej Torój
(2) Serial correlation 37 / 37