Lecture 15 Environmental Kuznet_s Curve_001
Transcript of Lecture 15 Environmental Kuznet_s Curve_001
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Will China Go the
Way of Easter
Island?
Lecture 15 (or so)
Environment and
Development in
China
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Plan
Review the case of Easter Island
Examine other cases
Understand challenge of managing resources
Will China succeed:
Introducing the Environmental Kuznets Curve
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Lecture 15
Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve Operating in China?
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The Kuznets Curve
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Environmental Kuznets Curve
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Environmental Kuznets CurveThe Bad Times!!!
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Question: What is this?
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Question: What is this?
Answer: The View of Beijings Fragrant Hills
from my mountain view apartment!
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0
200
gangtu
oqia
ogu
oguo
guagongsha
n
luxianshou
payan cu
ntan
tuokou
sha
iwangba
nan
jinguan
jinjiangko
u
lucheng
hukou
jinjip
o
wanh
ekou
siheshan
jiaoshanwe
i
xiaolixian
g
/
1 5 0 /
Level of Silt Build up, Yellow River
bad
Downstream Upstream
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Question: What is this?
Answer: Beijing on a day of a severe sandstorm (somesay are made worse by desertification)
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Are There Good Times?
What Will Lead to Them?
?
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1990 1991 1992 1993
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SO2 Concentration
Percentage of Population
with Acc ess to Gas %
SO2 mg/m3 Percentage %
Year
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Location City 1991 1995 1999
Northern
Qinhuandao 0.045 0.064 0.040
Huhehaote 0.035 0.093 0.048
Yinchuan 0.056 0.085 0.090
Lianyungang 0.049 0.024 0.018
Southern
Suzhou 0.065 0.071 0.043
Nantong 0.05 0.046 0.032
Ningbo 0.043 0.027 0.021
Wenzhou 0.061 0.037 0.025
Hefei 0.046 0.050 0.020
Xiamen 0.008 0.011 0.030
Shenzhen 0.016 0.015 0.014
Zhanjiang 0.037 0.032 0.011
Nanning 0.05 0.07 0.035
Guilin 0.085 0.026 0.017
Haikou 0.004 0.005 0.008
Average 0.043 0.044 0.030
SO2 Concentration in Medium and Small Cities ( Population < 1 million)
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Class I-II III-IV V
Northern rivers
Liaohe 11.1 33.3 55.6Huaihe 22.2 66.6 11.1
Haihe 21.0 17.0 62.0
Songhua River 0 47.1 52.9
Yellow River 8.3 25.0 66.7Southern rivers
Yangtze River 31.3 53.1 18.6
Pearl River 31.0 54.7 14.8
Comparison of WaterQuality: South (Rich) versus North (Poor)
POO
R
RICH
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Forested Area
This is not to saythat ChinasLogging Policywas working still stripping oldgrowth forests,but in richerSouth
(remember themountainousSouth?), begin toplant massivetracts of trees
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1950s 1980 1993
1970s 1988 2000
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What is mechanism forimprovement?
Not Environmental Groups!
But it is happening: Government response (to rising direct and social
costs)
E.g., Ban Leaded Gasoline (state provides health care)
Grain for Green (see below)
Citizen response (to rising direct costs)
Confronting Chinas water shortages
Relate to the Easter Island lessons so: maybe works / maybe not
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Case Study:
Response of the Government
Grain for Green:Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness and
Sustainability of ChinasConservation Set-aside Program
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1950s: Lots of forests highdemand for 1950s Big Push/ for 1950s/1960s Great
Leap Forward / for1960s/1970s industrializationby Mao (Walking on TwoLegs) and for Dengs1980s/1990s Reform
deforestation
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Huge Floods Causedabout 20 billion dollars ofdamage
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Grain for Greenpilot1999 scale up starting in
2000
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Mechanism of Grain for Green
Farmers set aside all or part of certain types ofland and plant seedlings to grow trees
US$1 = 1.78 yuan(PPP)
$1,180
$169
$421
$1,770
$169
$421
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
US$
Yellow River Yangtze River
Compensation (US$/ha/year)
Seedlings (initial year)
Cash payments
In-kind grain
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Mechanism of Grain for Green Fifteen times the average rental payment under
Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in U.S.
(US$/ha/year)
$1348
$1938
$113
0
500
1000
1500
2000
$USperha
Yellow River Yangtze River
Basin
U.S. (CRP)
Comparison ofCompensation (PPP)
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Scale of Grain for Green
Largest conservation experiment in thedeveloping world
14.7 million hectares by end of program 4.4 million on slope of at least 25 degrees
20 provinces, 400 counties, 27 thousandvillages, 15 million farmers (2001)
US CRP: 13.6 mil ha, $1.7 billion/yr (2000)
GFG: 2 mil ha, $0.8 billion/yr (2002)
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Issues
Cost-effectiveness Is the program achieving the policy objective at the
lowest possible cost?
Environmental benefit (objective): control of soil erosion Opportunity cost: forgone net revenue from cultivation
Sustainability of program achievements Concerns over welfare impacts to participants
Post-program land use decisions
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Changes in Real Income
per Household
Sustainability (1): Short-term welfare impact
Change in Real Income perHousehold
(Guizhou)
2361 23002506
87 36297376
487 500151
222 183175
206 183314
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1995 1999 2000
Yuan
LCP subsidy
Grain
Veg/fruit/oil
Other ag
Livestock
Remittance
Other
Off-farm
Change in Real Income perHousehold
(Ningxia)
1326 15631751
141130
203241
303
494345
278
103424
374281
1828
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1995 1999 2000
Yuan
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Change in Number of Households with
Revenue from Off-farm Labor/Business, Livestock,and Remittance
Sustainability (2): Change in income source
1 LQJ[LDQ
2IIIDUP /LYHVWRFN 5HPLWWDQFH
* XL]KRXQ
2IIIDUP /LYHVWRFN 5HP LWWDQFH
In fact, in new paper: document G4G poverty reduction andmigration by young and educated (retirment by old and uneducated)
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Much Cleaner Water Less Siltation BetterFlood Control More Electricity Generation
Mechanism: perception of loss (all caused by myopic managers) govt takes over(using correct informationmostly) forests recover / floods abate
But: any unforeseen consequences? Drying up of Yellow River? Food shortages?
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What still to worry about?
Pollution from cars? [incentive NOT to regulate!]
Irreversible problems
Water pollution [the irreversible part contamination
of groundwater] Wildlife destruction
Tropical forests (cant be replaced by fruit trees)
Carbon and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions
But who should pay?
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Will China Go
the Way of
Easter Island?