Lecture 1 the Challenge of Energy for the 21st Century

8/7/2019 Lecture 1 the Challenge of Energy for the 21st Century

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Energy Technology for theFuture

How will energy systems be

developed for the increased demandsand changing requirements?


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The Key Questions about Energy for the

Next Century

How much energy do we need? What is the role of energy on human activity?

How much energy is available?

What is the impact of energy production

and use on the future?


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What resources do we need?

Transportation

Liquid fuels (petroleum)

Agriculture

Natural gas, coal (fertilizers)

Liquid fuels (farm equipment)

Manufacturing

Electricity (coal, nuclear)

Chemical feedstocks (petroleum) Housing

Electricity

Heating/Cooling


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Engineering Issues with Energy

Development

Primary Source of Energy

Fossil Fuels

Nuclear

Renewables

Disposal of Waste Heat Thermal pollution of aquatic environment

Economies of scale

Why are large power plants more efficient than smaller plants? Environmental Impact

Carbon emissions? Air/Water pollution?

Water requirements

Food production

Community/industry integration


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What do we expect for increased

energy consumption?

5http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf


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Energy Use by China is the major

contributor to increased carbon emissions

6http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf


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Electricity Generation

7

Coal will be the major source of fuel for electricity for the next

20+ years. Hydro will continue to be the major renewable source.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf


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How do we assess how much

energy we need?

What is the essential energy requirement forthe population?

Can we limit and control the use of energy?

8


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http://hdr.undp.org/en/

Index Measure Minimum value Maximum value Formula

LongevityLife Expectancy

at birth (LE)25yrs 85 yrs

Education

Literacy rate

(LR)0% 100%

Combined gross

enrollment ratio

(CGER)

0% 100%

GDPGDP per capita

(PPP)

100 USD 40,000 USD

HDITotal humandevelopment

index

0.000 1.000

Human Development Index


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10http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf


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Human conditionshave improved as

measured by the

HumanDevelopment Index

HDI Historical Trends


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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

GDP per capita (2005 US$)

HDI vs GDP

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Per capita electricity consumption (kWh)

HDI vs Electricity Consumption

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes)

HDI vs CO2 emissions

HDI goes up with

income, but alsowith electricity

consumption and

carbon emissions

Correlating HDI with Human

Activity


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We need energy to provide a

satisfactory standard of living

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Energy Resources and

Sustainability

How much energy is available and

how long will it last?


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Why did coal become the fuel of

choice in the 18th century?

England, France, Germany, and even theUS had deforested much of its land to use

wood for fuel.

Discovery of coal provide a source of

energy to permitted population to grow

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Fast forward to 20th century

Petroleum replaced coal for manyapplications it was easier to recover,

cheaper to transport and made the

automobile possible

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Oil consumption and its future

How much oil is available? How long will it last?

What will be the impact on the future?

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http://www.worldalmanac.com/blog/2008/01/world_oil_reserves_and

_consumption.html


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When will the oil run out? 1930s Domestic reserves

were seen as finite and

US searched elsewhere inthe world

1960s Projection of oilresources and use

indicated 25 years ofresources

2000 Projection of oilresources and use

indicate 25 years ofresources (maybe 50under favorableassumptions)


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Hubbards Peak

History of Oil Production

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Jan-1900 May-1927 Oct-1954 Feb-1982 Jul-2009 Nov-2036

USCrudeProduction(thousand

barrels)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1900 1927 1954 1982 2009 2036

USCrudeReserves(millio

nbarrels)


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History of Oil Production Historical growth

was 25% per yearfrom 1880-1985.

Oil production anduse growth slowed

down in the1980s.

What level ofincreasedconsumption anduse of oil willpersist?


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Are we using petroleum in the most

beneficial manner?

What do we use oil for?


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Technical Conflicts in Fossil Fuel Use

Choice of Fuels Environmental Impact

of Fossil Fuel

recovery Oil spills

Strip mining

Land reclamation

High T for efficiency lower T for NOx

reduction

Cost of clean up offuel versus clean stack

emissions

CO2 emissions

NOx and SOxemissions


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How about other resources?

Coal resources could be expanded do weplan for 100s of years rather than 10s?

Nuclear is available for 100s of years, but

can we handle the waste?

What can we expect from solar, wind, etc.


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Renewables?


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What is the long term impact of

energy production?

Energy production does more that justdeplete a limited resource it alters our

environment.

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Billions of Tons

Carbon Emitted per

Year

Historicalemissions

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Historical Emissions

1.6


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1.6

Interim

Goal

Billions of Tons

Carbon Emitted per

Year

Historicalemissions Flat path

Stabilization

Triangle

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

The Stabilization Triangle

~850 ppm

Easier CO2 target

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.


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CO2 Emissions

31http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/graph-showing-each-countrys.html


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ElectricityTransportation

Heating,

other

Allocation of 6.2 GtC/yr 2000 global CO2 emissions

CO2 Emissions by Sector and Fuel


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1.6

Billions of Tons

Carbon Emitted per

Year

Flat path

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Stabilization Wedges

16 GtC/y

Eight wedges

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.

Historicalemissions

Interim

Goal


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Energy Efficiency

Decarbonized

Electricity

Fuel Displacement by

Low-Carbon Electricity

Forests & SoilsDecarbonized

Fuels

2007 2057

8 GtC/y

16 GtC/y

Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges

Methane

Management

Triangle

Stabilization


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Priority #1: Invent a Smart-Carbon

Post-industrial Society

The post-industrialized age features unprecedented

private consumption. In industrialized countries more

than 60% of oil is used in vehicles, more than 60% of

electricity in buildings.

Curbing global CO2 emissions will require major

changes in the post-industrial social envelope.

Effi i U f F l


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Efficient Use of Fuel

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1

ton of carbon.

2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl

Video-conferencing

Effi i t U f El t i it


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Efficient Use of Electricity

lightingmotors cogeneration

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use incommercial and residential buildings

Target: Commercial and multifamily buildings.


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Priority #2: Redirect the Rush to Coal

The IEA Reference Scenario projects the construction of 1800

GW of new coal capacity world-wide by 2030.

700 GW, with CO2 vented, will emit a billion tons of carbon

as CO2 each year. So, one electricity-carbon wedge results

from not building these plants.


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Wind Electricity

Effort needed by 2055for 1 wedge:

One million 2-MW windmills

displacing coal power.

2006: 75,000 MW (4%)

Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany

(Danish Wind Industry Association)


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ElectricityEffort needed by 2055 for 1

wedge:

700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing

coal power.

Nuclear

Graphic courtesy of NRC

Phase out of nuclear power creates the

need for another half wedge.

P i h C b C d S


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Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

Effort needed by

2055 for 1

wedge:

Carbon capture and

storage (CCS) at 800 GWcoal power plants.

CCS at 30 million barrels

of per day fuels- from-

coal plants.

Output of Wabash gasifier: CO + H2. Gases go directly to turbine.

Add for CCS power: CO + H2O CO2 + H2; then CO2 - H2 separation;then H2 to turbine, and CO2 handoff from coal industry to oil and gas industry.

Power with Carbon Capture and Storage


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Carbon Storage

Effort needed by 2055 for 1

wedge:

3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr

900 Carson refinery projects @ 4 MtCO2/yr

100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR

A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flowof oil out of the Earth today

Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins

Sleipner project, offshore Norway


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Factoring Global Changes into

Local Decisions Resource allocation and utilization has a global

impact

Environmental, economic and social equitable use ofnatural resources

Choice of technology has both immediate andlong term consequences

Long term effects are frequently not known

Are people willing to sacrifice for the benefit offuture generations?

Tragedy of the commons?


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What will we do when the oil runs

out?

Global Change and Energy: A PathForward, Paul E. Dimotakis

Out of Gas. The End of the Age of Oil,

David Goodstein

Lecture 1 the Challenge of Energy for the 21st Century

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Transcript of Lecture 1 the Challenge of Energy for the 21st Century