Lec 14_Full
Transcript of Lec 14_Full
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IE 343 Engineering Economics
Lecture 14: Chapter 5 – Evaluating a Single Project
Instructor: Tian Ni Sep.23, 2011
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New Plan: 5th Week Sep 19 Sep 21 Sep 23 (Quiz 3&Chap4, 5) (Hw4 due &Chap 5) 6th Week Sep 26 Sep 28 Sep 30 (Table&Excel&VBA (Quiz 4& (Exam 1 &Chap 4 Problems) Review 1) &HW5 out) 7th Week Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 7 8th Week Oct 10 Oct 12 Oct 14 (Oct Break) (HW5 due
& HW6 Out) IE 343 Fall 2011
Exam 1 Date Change!
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No homework next week. Homework 5 will be assigned next Friday Sep. 30
after Exam 1. Homework 5 is due Oct. 14 Exam 1 will have two parts: (Chapter 1 – 4) Part 1: Old problems randomly picked from Homework,
Lecture Notes and Textbook. (Just like Quizzes) Part 2: New problems to test your understanding
Details will be announced next Monday You can start to review Homework, Lecture Notes
and Textbook now! IE 343 Fall 2011
Announcement
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Textbook Tables (Appendix C) Excel VBA Solve some Practice Problems in Chapter 4 Note: Monday’s class is part of review 1. I will
teach how to use textbook tables (appendix C), Excel, and VBA to simply the computations, which is very useful in the Exam 1.
IE 343 Fall 2011
Next Class … Monday (Sep. 26)
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Question: What is the corresponding present equivalent value of the cash flow diagram below under a nominal interest rate r = 12% compounded annually, monthly and continuously? Is it a good investment?
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*Example 4.22*
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IE 343 Fall 2011
*Example 4.22*
0 1 13 14 15
A = 3,000
….. 22 23 24 ……..…... 12
$19,000
2 3 4 5
A A 1.06A A06.1 2
A06.1 9
A06.1 10
A06.1 11
EOY
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*Example 4.22* - Decomposition
0 1
$19,000
2 3 23 24
0 1
A = 3,000
………... 2 3 4 5 12
A
Single Cash Flow
Deferred Annuities Start at EOY 3
23 24
PS
PD
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IE 343 Fall 2011
*Example 4.22* - Decomposition
Geometric Gradient Series Start at the end of year 13
13 14 15 ….. 22 23 24
A 1.06A A06.1 2
A06.1 9
A06.1 10
A06.1 11
0 1 PG
12 ……..
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Basic Idea: Evaluate the present equivalent value of the three decomposed cash flow diagrams separately and then sum them up.
Notation: PS : Present Value for the single cash flow PD : Present Value for the Deferred Annuities PG : Present Value for the Geometric Gradient Series iA : Effective interest rate with annual compounding iM : Effective interest rate with monthly compounding iC : Effective interest rate with continuous compounding
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*Example 4.22* – Solution
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General Solution: PS = -19,000 PD = 3,000(P/A, i%, 10)(P/F, i%, 2) f = 6%, r = 12%, f ≠ r PG = (P/F, i%, 12)
P = PS + PD + PG
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*Example 4.22* – Solution
06.0%)]12,06.0,/)(12%,,/(1[000,3
−−
iPFiFP
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Solution: Annual Compounding iA = r = 12% per year PS = -19,000 PD = 3,000(P/A, 12%, 10)(P/F, 12%, 2) = 13,513 f = 6%, i = 12%, f ≠ i PG = (P/F, 0.12, 12)
= 6,205 P = PS + PD + PG = 718 It is a good investment since P > 0!
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*Example 4.22* – Solution
06.012.0)]12,06.0,/)(12,12.0,/(1[000,3
−− PFFP
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Solution: Monthly Compounding r = 12% per year iM = > iA = 0.12 PS = -19,000 PD = 3,000(P/A, 0.126825, 10)(P/F, 0.126825, 2) =
12985 f = 6%, i = 12.6825%, f ≠ i PG = (P/F,
0.126825, 12) = 5,569
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*Example 4.22* – Solution
06.0126825.0)]12,06.0,/)(12,126825.0,/(1[000,3
−− PFFP
126825.011212.01
12
=−
+
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Solution: Monthly Compounding r = 12% per year iM = > iA = 0.12
P = PS + PD + PG = -446
It is a bad investment since P < 0!
IE 343 Fall 2011
*Example 4.22* – Solution
126825.011212.01
12
=−
+
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Solution: Continuous Compounding r = 12% per year iM = > iM = 0.126825 (> iA = 0.12) PS = -19,000 PD = 3,000(P/A, 0.1275, 10)(P/F, 0.1275, 2) = 12,934 f = 6%, i = 12.75%, f ≠ i PG = (P/F, 0.1275,
12) = 5,510
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*Example 4.22* – Solution
06.01275.0)]12,06.0,/)(12,1275.0,/(1[000,3
−− PFFP
( ) 1275.0112.0 =−e
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Solution: Continuous Compounding r = 12% per year iM = > iM = 0.126825 (> iA = 0.12)
P = PS + PD + PG = -556
It is a bad investment since P < 0!
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*Example 4.22* – Solution
( ) 1275.0112.0 =−e
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Chapter 5 - Evaluating a Single Project
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Time value of money - Application
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We will learn how to evaluate the profitability and liquidity of a single problem solution (or alternative). Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) is useful for this analysis. MARR ("hurdle rate") is usually organization-specific and determined based on the following: – Cost of money available for investment – Number of good projects available for investment – Risks involved in investment opportunities
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Time value of money - Applications
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How to use MARR? Use it as an interest rate to convert cash flows into
equivalent worth at some point in time. The proposed problem solution (project or alternative) is profitable if it generates sufficient cash flow to recover the initial investment and earn an interest rate that is at least as high as MARR.
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Time value of money - Applications
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Methods to evaluate profitability Present Worth (PW) Future Worth (FW) Annual Worth (AW) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) External Rate of Return (ERR)
Methods to evaluate liquidity Simple payback period Discounted payback period
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Methods
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Present Worth method (PW)
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Discount all cash flows to the present time by using the MARR as the interest rate.
IE 343 Fall 2011
Present Worth (PW) method
NN iFiFiFiFiPW −−− ++++++++= )1(...)1()1()1(%)( 2
21
10
0
∑=
−+=N
k
kk iFiPW
0)1(%)(
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: represents future cash flow at the end of the compounding period k;
i: is the effective interest rate (MARR) per compounding period, which is assumed to be constant;
N represents the number of compounding periods in the planning horizon (i.e., study period).
IE 343 Fall 2011
Present Worth (PW) method N
N iFiFiFiFiPW −−− ++++++++= )1(...)1()1()1(%)( 22
11
00
∑=
−+=N
k
kk iFiPW
0)1(%)(
kF
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Rule: If PW(MARR) ≧ 0, the project is profitable If PW(MARR)< 0, the project is not profitable.
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Present Worth (PW) method
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Consider a project that has the following cash flows over a study period of 5 years: Initial investment: $100,000 Annual revenues: $40,000 Annual expenses: $5,000 Salvage value: $20,000 MARR: 20%.
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Present Worth (PW) method - Example 5.1
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Example 5.1 - Cash Flow Diagram
0 1 2 3 4
$100,000
5
MARR = 2%
$40,000
$5,000
S=$20,000
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Solution: PW(20%)=-100,000+(40,000-
5,000)(P/A,20%,5)+20,000(P/F,20%,5)=$12,709. Is this a profitable project? Yes! Because: We recovered $100,000 (investment). We
earned an interest rate of 20% which was desired. We even made a profit that has a present equivalent value of $12,709, which is beyond what was required.
IE 343 Fall 2011
Example 5.1 – Solution
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Suppose we had an interest rate higher than 20%. For example, 20% nominal interest rate
compounded continuously. Then, the effective interest rate is
PW(i=22.14% discrete compounding) = PW(r= 20% continuous compounding) = $7,285.7 Still profitable but PW is lower when the effective
interest rate increases.
IE 343 Fall 2011
Example 5.1 – Cont’d
%.14.2212.0 =−= ei
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Note: If the first cash flow of a project is negative and its subsequent cash flows are positive, then PW is a decreasing function of the effective interest rate i.
For a general pattern of cash flows, PW may not be the decreasing function of i.
IE 343 Fall 2011
Example 5.1 – Cont’d
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Future Worth method (FW)
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Find the equivalent worth of all cash flows at the end of the study period by using the MARR as the interest rate.
Note that FW and PW of a project are equivalent at the interest rate of i%, i.e., FW=PW(F/P,i%,N).
IE 343 Fall 2011
Future Worth (FW) method
022
110 )1(...)1()1()1(%)( iFiFiFiFiFW N
NNN ++++++++= −−
∑=
−+=N
k
kNk iFiFW
0)1(%)(
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Rule: If FW(MARR) ≧ 0, the project is profitable If FW(MARR)< 0, the project is not profitable.
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Future Worth (FW) method
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Back to Example 5.1 with the following project: Initial investment: $100,000 Annual revenues: $40,000 Annual expenses: $5,000 Salvage value: $20,000 MARR: 20%. N: 5 years.
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Future Worth (FW) method - Example 5.1
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IE 343 Fall 2011
Example 5.1 - Cash Flow Diagram
0 1 2 3 4
$100,000
5
MARR = 2%
$40,000
$5,000
S=$20,000
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Solution: FW(20%)=-100,000(F/P,20%,5)+(40,000-
5,000)(F/A,20%,5)+20,000=$31,624. Since FW(20%) ≧ 0, the project is profitable.
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Future Worth (FW) method - Example 5.1
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Capitalized Worth method (CW)
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Definition: Capitalized–Worth method involves determining the PW of all revenues or expenses over an infinitely length of time.
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Capitalized – Worth (CW) Method
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CW of a perpetual series of end-of-period uniform payments A, with interest at i% per period is A(P/A, i%, ∞)
IE 343 Fall 2011
Capitalized – Worth (CW) Method
0 ∞
A A A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . …
1 2 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ….
To find P?
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CW of a perpetual series of end-of-period uniform payments A, with interest at i% per period is A(P/A, i%, ∞)
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Capitalized – Worth (CW) Method
=
+
−+=
∞==
∞→
∞→
iA
iiiAiCW
iAPAPWiCW
N
N
N
N
1)1(
1)1(lim%)(
)%,,/(%)(
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A practical approximation of “forever” (infinity) is dependent on the interest rate i%
E.g.1: i=8% (1/i = 12.5000), (P/A,8%,N) = 12.4943 when N = 100. So a good approximation for infinity when i=8% is N ≧ 100
E.g.2: i=20% (1/i =5.0000), (P/A,20%,N) = 4.9966 when N = 40. So a good approximation for infinity when i=20% is N ≧ 40
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Capitalized – Worth (CW) Method
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Annual Worth method (AW)
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The AW of a project is an equal annual series of dollar amounts, for a stated study period, that is equivalent to the cash inflows and outflows at an interest rate that is generally the MARR. AW(i%)=R – E – CR(i%) R: Annual equivalent revenues E: Annual equivalent expenses CR: Annual equivalent Capital Recovery cost
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Annual Worth (AW) method
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CR includes the loss in value of asset and interest on invested capital.
The CR can be computed by: CR(i%)=I(A/P,i%,N)-S(A/F,i%,N) I: Initial investment S: Salvage value.
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Annual Worth (AW) method
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The above formula of CR can be interpreted in the way that the annual equivalent of the initial capital investment minus the annual equivalent of the salvage value.
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Annual Worth (AW) method
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Back to Example 5.1: Initial investment (I): $100,000 Annual revenues (R): $40,000 Annual expenses (E): $5,000 Salvage value (S): $20,000 MARR (i%): 20%. N: 5 years.
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Annual Worth (AW) method - Example 5.1
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Back to Example 5.1: I = $100,000 R = $40,000 E = $5,000 S = $20,000 MARR = 20%. N: 5 years.
CR(20%)=100,000(A/P,20%,5)-20,000(A/F,20%,5) =$30,750.
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Annual Worth (AW) method - Example 5.1
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CR cost calculation - Example 5.1
Year
Value of investment
at BOY
Uniform loss in value of
year (A)
Interest on BOY (B) investment
(i=20%)(B)
CR cost for year
(A+B)
PW of CR amount at
i=20% 1 100,000 16,000 20,000 36,000 30000 2 84,000 16,000 16,800 32,800 22777.78 3 68,000 16,000 13,600 29,600 17129.63 4 52,000 16,000 10,400 26,400 12731.48 5 36,000 16,000 7,200 23,200 9323.56
Sum= 91962.45
Assume that the loss in value is uniform per year. So loss per year is (I – S)/N = (100,000 – 20,000)/5 = 16,000
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BOY stands for Beginning-of-Year. PW of CR cost= 36,000(P/F,20%,1)
+32,800(P/F,20%,2)+...+23,200(P/F,20%,5) =91,961.44
Uniform annual equivalent of CR cost =91,961.44(A/P,20%,5) = $30,750
IE 343 Fall 2011
CR cost calculation - Example 5.1
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AW(i%)= R – E – CR(i%) AW(20%)=40,000-5,000-30,750=4,250 Since AW(20%) ≧ 0, the project is profitable.
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Annual Worth (AW) method - Example 5.1
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Note that AW, PW, and FW are equivalent measures of profitability of a project: AW=PW(A/P,i%,N), AW=FW(A/F,i%,N), PW=FW(P/F,i%,N), FW=PW(F/P,i%,N). (Check that these expressions hold for the project in
Example 5.1.)
Therefore if PW ≧ 0, then FW ≧ 0, and AW ≧ 0.
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Annual Worth (AW) method
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