Lean Analytics Overview Webinar - aspe-sdlc.com _Webinar... · Lean Analytics Overview Webinar ....
Transcript of Lean Analytics Overview Webinar - aspe-sdlc.com _Webinar... · Lean Analytics Overview Webinar ....
Topics
• Set the stage: What is Lean Startup?
• So – What’s Lean Analytics?
• Lean Analytics Concepts
• Innovation Accounting
• Metrics
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“Lean” Concepts
• Relentlessly eliminate anything that isn’t adding value
• Eliminate time spent on what “we know” we’ll need in
future
• Eliminate inefficient ways of working
• Optimize the whole system
• People doing the work know best how to do it
• Mapping processes and improving
• WoMBaT: Waste of Money, Brains, and Time
Lean Start-Up takes a lean thinking approach
to developing new products. Lean.org
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What is a Startup?
Start-Ups: Human institution
designed to create new
products and services under
conditions of extreme
uncertainty
• Catalyst that transforms ideas into products
• Includes Entrepreneurs and Intrapreneurs
• Examples: – New Innovation
– Scientific discoveries
– Repurposing existing technology for new use
– New business model
– Product/Service to new location
– Address underserved set of customers
– New internal service
Eric Ries, The Lean Startup
Start-Up: A startup is an
organization formed to search
for a scalable and repeatable
business model.
Bob Dorf, The Startup
Owner’s Manual
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What is Lean Startup?
• Application of Lean thinking to
the process of innovation
• Adapts Lean ideas in context
of entrepreneurship
• Principled approach to new
product development
• Guidance on how to make
trade-off decisions
• Focused on Validated
Learning
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Lean Startup Principles
1. Entrepreneurs are everywhere
2. Entrepreneurship is management
3. Product Success depends on learning
4. Leverage Build-Measure-Learn Cycle
5. Measure Learning
Lean Start-Up is a set of practices to help
entrepreneurs increase their odds of building a
successful Product.
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What Lean Start-Up Is Not --
• Not your traditional way to
create new products
• Not a collection of individual
tactics
• Not a rigid, lockstep process
• Not a lack of discipline
• Not a software development
methodology
• Silver Bullet – Doesn’t fix
everything
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So – What’s Lean Analytics?
• Advanced work in Lean Startup
• Focused on “Measure” phase of
Build-Measure-Learn Cycle
• Measure and Analyze to:
– Validate problem
– Find the right customer
– Decide what to build
– How to monetize it
– How to spread word
• Core Idea:
– Type business
– Analytics Stage
– Optimize One Metrics That Matters
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Types of Innovation
• Sustaining Innovation
– Improvements to existing product
– Serving existing customers
– Most companies are good but…
• Disruptive Innovation
– Breakthrough new products
– New sustainable sources of growth
– Companies struggle
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Lean Startup Overview
Vision
Strategy
Business Plan
Assumptions
Learnings
Product Iterations
Growth
Experiments Sustain
ability?
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Lean Analytics Stages
Empathy
• Are you solving a problem people care about and will pay for?
• Identify a real problem and real solution
• Get out of the Building, Interviews, Surveys
Stickiness
• Will the dogs eat the dog food?
• Leverage the solution with a small, friendly audience
• Test before going after the masses
Virality
• Will people spread the word?
• Acquisition, Onboarding processes
• Force multiplier for paid promotion
Revenue
• Will they open their pocketbooks?
• Monetize Product, Can you make money?
• Focus on maximizing and optimizing revenue
Scale
• Can we grow the market with sustainability?
• Acquire customers, expand verticals and geographies
• Channels, ecosystem, sustainability
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Stage Example – Restaurant
Empathy
• Owner learns about diners in area
• Desires, trends, foods not available
• Gets out of building and talks to diners
Stickiness
• Develops menu
• Lots of tests on customers, frequent changes
• High costs, variation, uncertain inventory, giveaways
Virality
• Starts loyalty programs to entice return customers
• Encourage customers to share with friends, friend coupons
• Leverages social media
Revenue
• Work on margins
• Fewer free meals, tighter cost controls
• More standardization
Scale
• Proven sustainability
• Spends on marketing and promotion from revenues, broader advertising
• Launches second restaurant
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Sample Business Models • E-commerce: Sell things to
customers e.g. Amazon
• SaaS: Software on demand e.g. Salesforce
• Free Mobile App: In-game content drives revenue e.g. Angry Birds
• Media: You create content, make money from advertising e.g. Google’s Search Engine, cNet Home Page
• User-Generated Content: Users create content e.g. Facebook, Wikipedia
• Two-sided: Buyers and sellers come together e.g. eBay, Dating Sites
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Build-Measure-Learn Feedback Loop
Eric Ries, The Lean Startup
• Minimum Viable Product (MVP)
• Fastest full turn of cycle
• Minimum amount of effort
• Minimum development
• Start learning as quickly as possible
• Answer product design or technical questions
• Test fundamental hypotheses
• Usually overestimate needs for MVP
• Are development efforts leading to
real progress
• “Metrics are people, too”
– Represents breathing, thinking,
buying individuals
– Behavior is measureable and
changeable
• Are you making your product better?
How do you know?
• Vital function is learning
• Learn truth of what works in
strategy
• What customers really want
(vs. what they say/think they
want)
• Are we on the path to a
sustainable business?
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Experiments to Test Strategy
• Leap-of Faith Assumptions: – Riskiest elements of startup’s plan
• Identify risks and assumptions before building anything
• Test those assumptions experimentally
• Devise experiments: – Learn to move numbers closer to those
expected in business model
• Products are an experiment,
MVP is a process
Once clear of leap-of-faith assumptions,
enter Build phase quickly with a
Minimum Viable Product (MVP).
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Minimum Viable Product
• Fastest full turn of Build-Measure-Learn cycle
• Minimum amount of effort, Minimum development
• Challenges traditional notions of quality
– MVPs sometimes considered low quality by
customers
• Start learning as quickly as possible
– Any work beyond is waste
– Learn what attributes customers care about
• Answer product design or technical questions
• Test fundamental assumptions/hypotheses
• Usually overestimate needs for MVP
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Early Adopters
• Visionary early customers
• First to adopt
• More forgiving of mistakes
• Expect, even prefer, an 80% solution
• Suspicious of anything too polished
• Features/polish might be a waste of energy for them
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Validated Learning
• Demonstrated by positive improvements in core metrics
• Synthesis between vision and what customers will accept
• Startup Productivity Metric: – Not – How much stuff we built
– But – How much validated learning we’re getting
• Validate Assumptions (hypotheses)
• Validate Changes
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Innovation Accounting
• Quantitative approach to view
results of tuning product
• Geared towards measuring
disruptive innovation
• Answers questions like:
– Are we actually achieving validated
learning?
– Are we learning how to grow a
sustainable business?
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Pivot or Persevere Decisions
• Does progress show our strategic hypothesis is correct?
• Do we need to make a major change?
• Pivot: structured course correction designed to test a
new fundamental hypothesis
– Product, strategy, growth engine
– Keep one foot rooted in learnings so far
• Persevere: Maintain current path
– Misguided decisions to persevere can destroy creative potential
– Product neither growing nor dying, consuming resources
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Choosing the Right Metrics
• Qualitative versus Quantitative
• Vanity versus Actionable
• Leading versus Lagging
• Correlated versus Casual
Key Performance Indicators:
Specific metrics that drive
the business
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Qualitative vs Quantitative Metrics
• Qualitative
– Messy, subjective, imprecise
– “Why”
– Not easily measured
• Quantitative:
– Easy to understand
– “What” and “How Much”
– Ranked, counted, or put on a scale
– Aggregate, extrapolate, put in a spreadsheet
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Vanity vs Actionable • Vanity:
– Often at a gross up level,
makes things look good
– Ex: Total Signups
• Actionable:
– Analyze customer behavior
– What will I do differently
based on this metric?
– Ex: Percent of users who are
active
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8 Vanity Metrics to Watch Out For
1. Number of Hits
2. Number of Page Views
3. Number of Visits
4. Number of Unique Visitors
5. Number of Followers,
Friends, Likes
6. Time on Site/Number of
Pages
7. Emails Collected
8. Number of Downloads
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Cohort Analysis
• Instead of cumulative totals, look at each group
of customers
• Break down these groups
• A/B Testing
• Segmentation
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Growth Hacking
• Data-driven guerilla marketing
• General technique:
– Find early lifecycle metric as Leading
Indicator (e.g. # friends invited)
– Understand how that metric correlates
to business goal (e.g. driving long-term
engagement)
– Build predictions based on current
Leading Indicator (e.g. engaged users
in 90 days)
– Modify User Experience today to
improve that outcome (e.g. suggest
friends)
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Leading vs Lagging Metrics
• Leading Metric/Indicator – Tries to predict future
– Relate to early engagement activities
– Tied to business model
– e.g. qualified customers in sales funnel
• Lagging Metric – After the fact
– Indicates that you had a problem
– e.g. Churn
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Leading & Lagging Indicators
Sales Funnel:
• Sales Team
Leading
indicator,
potential new
customers
P&L:
• Stockholder
Lagging
indicator on
company
performance
Revenue Earned:
• Finance Lagging
indicator, revenue
• Stockholders
Leading indicator
gains/losses
Contracts Signed:
• Sales Team
Lagging Metric,
deals closed
• Finance Leading
indicator, potential
revenue
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Correlated vs Causal Metrics
• Correlate
– Help predict what will happen
• Causal
– Cause of something happening
– Prove Causality thru Correlation
• A Correlated, Leading Indicator can
predict the future
• A Causal, Leading Indicator can change
the future
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Lean Startup Overview
Vision
Strategy
Business Model
Assumptions
Learnings
Product Iterations
Growth
Experiments Sustain
ability?
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Analytics Lessons Learned
• Accounting takes on a different role in the uncertain world of Startups
• Know your customer
• Numbers can’t explain everything
• Get out of the building
• Moving targets
• Define what success looks like then: experiment, experiment, experiment
• Use quantitative data to “what” and “how much”
• Use qualitative data to understand “why”
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Lean Startup References
The Lean Startup
by Eric Ries
Lean Analytics
by Alistair Croll & Benjamin Yoskowitz
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