9/27/2017

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Santa Fe What is driving Multi-family Housing?

Guest GuideTodd Clarke CCIM

tclarke@nmapartment.com

Laying the Foundation

Numbers, darn numbers!

Guest GuideTodd Clarke CCIM

tclarke@nmapartment.com

A tale of 2 ½ cities…

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Multi-family Housing Conference

Facilitated by Todd Clarke CCIM• 30 years selling apartments – listed/sold over

11,000 units and $450M• Development consultant (ABQ Uptown, ABQ High

School Lofts, etc.) or property tax protest consultant on another $2.5B

• International Award Winning CCIM instructor• Fellow SFAR member• Former AANM industry champion• Maintain database on every apartment

2 units and up in NM• Total data geek and policy wonk

Multi-family Housing Conference

This morning’s presentation

I. Demographic

DriversII. Calculating

Gap

III. Millennials

(and boomers)

IV. How do we move forward?

Today

Steps To do

on Viability of Santa

Fe

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Multi-family Housing Conference

GAP analysisSimple three Step process:

1. Determine demand2. Determine supply3. Subtract Demand from Supply = GAP

DetailsInfluenced by:

- geography chosen- definition of multifamily

Multi-family Housing Conference

Apartment Metrics

10 people = 1 apartment unit

= Apartment Unit

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Multi-family Housing Conference

City #1 of Santa Fe – all multifamily

Multi-family Housing Conference

City #1 of Santa Fe – demographics

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Multi-family Housing Conference

City #1 of Santa Fe – all multifamily

Game over? Is that the full story?

Multi-family Housing Conference

City of Santa Fe – all multifamily rental

In 1990’s/2000’s Santa Fe converted 1,428 apartments to Condominiums (most owner occupied)

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Multi-family Housing Conference

City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – all multifamily rental

Multi-family Housing Conference

City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – demographics

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Multi-family Housing Conference

City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – all multifamily rental

• HUGE! But wait, show me that geography again?

Multi-family Housing Conference

City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – all multifamily rental

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Multi-family Housing Conference

Timeout for a geography adjustment…• Create a trade area based on economic

interactions• Eliminate native American lands• Eliminate federal lands• Eliminate national forests• Eliminate those areas that are closed to ABQ

than SF• And you get….

Multi-family Housing Conference

Santa Fe Proper

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Multi-family Housing Conference

Santa Fe Proper

Multi-family Housing Conference

City #2.5 of Santa Fe Proper – all multifamily rental

• This is the gap if we built to 100% occupancy.

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Multi-family Housing Conference

But wait…• Where are these 6,484 residents living now?

– Albuquerque– Espanola– Southern Santa Fe County (trailers)

Multi-family Housing Conference

Today’s focus:• Santa Fe’s amazing

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Multi-family Housing Conference

Additionally…• 23% of the supply of Santa Fe

multifamily rental is affordable

To cater to this audience

6,484 reasons…

But who are they?

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Multi-family Housing Conference

Today’s predominant renter

Meet the consumer of the next decade –84 million strong

Millennials - lifestyle• Lives out of a backpack• Never knew a day without

Google• Asks Facebook friends for

advice• Pursues experiences more

than “things”• Needs constant feedback• Multitasking (crams 28

hours into a 24 hour day)• Has more tie to Facebook

than their country

• Asks their employers “what can you do for me?”

• Marries later• More likely to stay at

home with parents• Highly transient• Not likely to buy homes

• Cares about global more than local

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A millennial profile

• The top 10 jobs in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004

• 10 to 14 different jobs before 38

• 20% of their college education was irrelevant by the time the graduated

• 12%+ met their spouse online

Gig Economy - Meet Fiverr.comGigs or jobs start $5• Logos• Videos• Narration• Data Entry• Programming• Virtual Assistant• Database Creation

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Gig’s- LogosCORE Course Logo

Millennials live in the Gig Economy

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One of my favorite examples of a millennial

• 35• Started in Video with campaign to

complain about Apple service on iPod• Gained international recognition• Had small HBO special• Used that to launch YouTube

videos_blogs or Vlogs- 18 months straight – one every day

• Started App, then tech company around APP

• Just (11/27/2016) sold tech company to CNN

Favorite Santa Fe Millennial – Meow Wulf

• 100 artists• Opened in 2016• Started by Vince Kadludbek• Crowd funded investors include George Martin• International Recognition

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Transportation

Multi-family Housing Conference

We are driving less

• US – Per Capita VMT (annual) • MSA – Per Capita VMT (daily)

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Multi-family Housing Conference

Less Drivers

Multi-family Housing Conference

Less miles traveled

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Multi-family Housing Conference

• 45%!

KRC Research – reduce driving

Multi-family Housing Conference

• Walkscore.com• 27%!

NAR – importance of walking

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• 22%!

NAR Survey – importance of BRT

Multi-family Housing Conference

Millennials use alternative modes more

Nationally, Millennials are over 4 times more likely to use transit then Gen-X

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Dissatisfied with transportation options

Level of satisfaction increases with age.

Younger RespondentsFewer transportation options

Multi-family Housing Conference

A change in values is at play…

Change in behavior of 18 – 34 Year Olds, 2001 & 2009