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Joint Air Power

History of the Scientific Method

Operations research – short form OR – was created out of ne-cessity in World War II, when a small group of British scien-tists attempted to optimise the conduct of operations by means of statistics, stochastics and data analysis. These first attempts soon proved successful, for instance by optimising the positioning of air defence and radar sites, ad-justing the processes to search for and engage submarines and improving the employment of air-delivered cluster weapons. This use of scientific methods, novel at the time, was soon ap-plied widely in all sectors of the economy, where it has continued to play a prominent role to date.

The Bundeswehr has been using OR since the 1950s and has since mark-edly increased its OR per-sonnel. These personnel have the expertise necessary to support the Bundeswehr with scientific meth-ods in all areas and processes. Their anal-yses provide another piece of the puzzle that deci-sion-makers need to expand the overall picture that underpins their decisions.

German Contribution

in a Multinational Coalition

Not too long ago, after the terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 No-vember 2015, the German Bundestag decided to provide mil-itary support to the international coalition against the “Islam-ic State” terrorist organisation. Bundeswehr military person-nel are serving in the headquarters of the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) to support

the international alliance. Among these is a Bundeswehr OR specialist.

He works in the CJ-5 Analysis and Assessment Branch (CJ-5 A&A) in the CJTF-OIR headquarters together with ten other OR specialists of the coalition – referred to as Opera-tions Research & System Analysis (ORSA) personnel in U.S. terminology. Under the technical command of a U.S. colonel, ORSA personnel conduct numerous short analyses or work on deep-dive projects which have a longer processing time. Their work focuses on: • providing supplementary information that may support

the conduct of operations in terms of ongoing decision-making and

• supporting the commander in assessing his current cam-paign (campaign assessment).

OR Products from

and on Operations

As part of the campaign assessment, the OR specialists routine-ly prepare products such as the monthly campaign assessment report, the weekly running assessment and the assessment in the context of the Joint Effectiveness Board. These documents provide information on whether the desired effects of the on-going operation are being achieved and whether the current ap-proaches are viable. In addition, they are a means of commu-nication inside the headquarters, but also a means of reporting to higher organisations. The challenge when conducting cam-paign assessments lies in translating the existing campaign plan into measurable metrics that facilitate evaluative comparisons and display successes or lack thereof on a simple, comprehen-

sible and transparent scale.

Assessing Things

that are hard to

measure

The objective of “improv-ing security in Baghdad” will be used as an example of the numerous objectives of a campaign plan. This

quite simple goal is hard to measure so that a transparent

assessment is difficult. Even be-fore such an objective is defined,

ORSA personnel consider which indi-cators could serve as a basis for assessment,

who has the required data and how this data can be collected. This advisory support for the conduct of operations already takes place during the formulation of objectives to avoid subsequent assessments based on gut feeling.

Indicators that allow statements on the development of the security situation can be found in the above-mentioned example. These include, for instance, the number of attacks, number of people wounded or killed in action, the distance of the attacks from the city centre and from the checkpoints, and the types of attacks (direct fire, indirect fire, improvised explo-sive devices). Supporting data available from other organisa-tions can also be used: the number of internally displaced peo-

Lieutenant Colonel dr. Christian K

Operations ResearchAnalysis, Assessment, Enhancement

anyone who sets foot in a modern supermarket or takes a look at the

shop floor of a car factory will unknowingly witness the results of op-

erations research. The way goods in the supermarket are placed in the

shelves corresponds to the customers’ previously analysed purchas-

ing behaviour. The checkout area is designed in a way that ensures

that customers pass through swiftly while as little staff as possible

are employed. in the car industry, production and delivery of parts are

planned in such a way that they are available at the production line

just in time for installation without any unnecessary storage. wherev-

er the aim is to analyse systems, assess risks, increase efficiency and

save costs, mathematical methods and computer modelling are em-

ployed and subsumed under the term “operations research”. The au-

thor is oR expert at the Bundeswehr office for defence planning.

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ple, for instance, is a measure of the sense of security among a country’s population. This data can be retrieved and updated through UN organisations or other relief organisations. The task of the OR specialist is to finalise the analysis of this da-ta, which can sometimes be extensive and vary substantially in quality. At the end of the day, those in charge of conducting operations are only interested in a summary trend statement on the development of the security situation in Baghdad. Not only must ORSA personnel identify this trend but also be pre-pared to provide hard facts to substantiate their findings. This will include extensive numerical and analytical data.

To understand, question,

model and assess Options

While the focus of campaign assessment is more on the past and could be compared to a sort of management control sys-tem, many analysis projects of CJ-5 A&A focus on the future and serve to inform decision-making in specific cases. Opera-tions research can use targeted analysis to reveal facts and high-light or assess possible courses of action. Let’s look at the train-ing of Iraqi forces, for example, which is implemented at differ-ent training facilities and in different ways. The fundamental question of the commander is whether the training activities are sufficient; the OR specialists in turn approach this ques-tion in terms of numbers. How high is the output of this train-ing system, that is, how many combat-ready soldiers does this system produce per time unit? To answer this question, factors such as the capacities of the individual training facilities and their success rates need to be taken into account. Some training blocks are based on previous ones. This is in addition to uncer-tainty arising from the fact that not all of the trained soldiers will be deployed without restrictions for the operation (this de-cision lies with the Iraqi military leadership). In short, the sys-tem quickly becomes complex and confusing.

In the context of Operation Counter Daesh and in the liberation of Iraq, trained Iraqi forces are employed against the “Islamic State” terrorist organisation. A certain number of available forces are constantly required to keep up the op-eration’s momentum of attack. Meanwhile, the liberated re-gions are not left to fend for themselves. Troops referred to as hold forces are employed to provisionally maintain law and or-der. The requirement for hold forces can be established rela-tive to the ongoing operation. This requirement must be met

by the training system within a prescribed timeframe. Based on requirements described beforehand, the task of the OR spe-cialists is to model the training system on the appropriate as-sumptions and simplifications. The model thus developed will then be used to collect data through simulations. The simu-lation findings enable the specialists to draw conclusions as to the capacity of the real training system. By means of a proc-ess referred to as sensitivity analysis, that is, by changing dif-ferent parameters of the model, OR specialists are able to de-velop different courses of action that improve the output of the system. In this specific example, expanding the training capacities, shortening training dura-tion or establishing additional training fa-cilities are possible options. Based on the simulation findings, the solution optimised for the operational condi-tions can be found. After the find-ings have been prepared in the deci-sion-maker’s parlance, he or she can make a scientifically sound decision as to whether there is a need to take action, and may change the priorities as regards the training and deployment of hold forces.

Identifying Cases of Application –

calling up Expertise

Training is only one example of many OR projects conducted in the context of OIR, some of which are classified as Secret. Oth-er projects, for instance, examined the impact of weather on dif-ferent aspects of combat action, optimised the use of resourc-es such as air transport, or prepared predictions and projec-tions related to the possible impact of the imminent Ramadan.

The U.S. armed forces in particular make extensive use of operations research, which is evident in the high number of U.S. ORSA personnel in CJTF-OIR. The Bundeswehr, too, has now established a remarkable pool of German OR spe-cialists. Points of contact for OR can be found at the com-mand echelon of all major organisational elements. At the Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning, two divisions of

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Joint Air Power

Facit

The Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning aims to pro-mote the use of operations research in the Bundeswehr and demonstrate the advantages and possible benefits of using the method.

Directorate  IV (Scientific Support and Interoperability) are equipped to support all organisational elements, processes and decision-makers with scientific methods. In addition, a dedi-cated laboratory can be used to conduct analyses in Germany for all Bundeswehr contingents.

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HENSOLDT expands “Xpeller”

counter-UAV product family

HENSOLDT, the new sensor house, has en-tered into a collaboration in the area of counter-UAV with sensor provider Squarehead Tech-nology AS, Oslo. HENSOLDT signed a col-laboration agreement with Squarehead which adds its acoustic sensor “Discovair” to HEN-SOLDT’s “Xpeller” counter-UAV portfolio.

The modular “Xpeller” product fami-ly consists of HENSOLDT’s own products – radars, infrared cameras and long-range jam-mers – and close-in RF detectors from Dan-ish partner company myDefence. With Dis-covair, the acoustic signature of drones can be used to detect and track such threats with a high grade of certainty up to a distance of several hundred metres. “Xpeller” offers very

high effectiveness by combining sensor data from different sources with latest data fusion, signal analysis and jamming technologies. It uses radars, optical and other sensors to detect and identify the drone and assess its threat potential at ranges from a few hundred me-tres up to several kilometres depending on the type of drone. Based on an extensive threat li-brary and real-time analysis of control signals a jammer then interrupts the link between drone and pilot and/or its navigation. RSe

RUAG qualifies CAST-easy

for TORNADO platform

securing sale to the German

Bundeswehr

The RUAG Aviation CAST-easy (Counter-measure Advanced System Test Equipment)

chaff and flare simula-tor solution is marking a milestone, twice over. The self-protection test equip-ment has successfully qualified for flight on the TORNADO jet platform, as confirmed by partner Airbus Defense & Space. This success allowed RU-AG Aviation to secure a

significant mandate for CAST-easy from the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, In-formation Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) for use with the TORNADO fleet operated by the German Bundeswehr. CAST-easy is an unique, economical and re-usable testing solution specifically designed to allow for safer testing of chaff and flare dis-penser deployment, relying on electronics in-stead of pyrotechnics.

CAST-easy supports all chaff and flare dispensers, independent of the original equip-ment manufacturer (OEM) model.

The electronic CAST-easy unit is highly durable, allowing for well over 2,000 testing cycles, and the absence of pyrotechnics en-sures safe operations, as well as deployment flexibility in terms of civil airspace. Lower op-erating costs are the result of a significantly lower logistical footprint. The ensuing deliv-ery of CAST-easy simulator units to BAAIN-Bw, on behalf of the German Bundeswehr, reinforces the existing partnership between RUAG Aviation and the Bundeswehr which goes back several years. BAAINBw has al-so purchased missim threat simulator test-ing units for the TORNADO fleet as part of their efforts to bolster electronic warfare self-protection systems. RSe

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