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Transcript of LATINO EDUCATION AND THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES National Association of Latino Elected and...
LATINO EDUCATION AND THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES
National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials
6th Annual National Summit on the State of Latino Education
Sept 27-29, 2010
Paul E. Lingenfelter, President
Differences in College Attainment Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD Countries, 2006
2Source: OECD. Table A1. 3a. Education at a Glance, 2008
Jobs in the last 4 decades increasingly have required postsecondary education
79%
41%
High School or Less
Some College and AA
27%
10%
BA and above
11%
32%
0
15
30
45
60
75
1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Current Population Survey, Various years.
Education and the U.S. Labor Force, 1973-2018
Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, 1973 & 2009; Anthony Carnevale, Help Wanted: Projections of jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018, June 2010
Jobs
(in m
illio
ns)
Challenges: College participation by socioeconomic status
College Participation By Achievement Test and Socioeconomic
Status Quartile
SES Quartile
Lowest Highest
AchievementQuartile
Highest 78% 97%
Lowest 36% 77%
Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001.
Challenges: Degree attainment by SAT scores and socioeconomic status
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1200-1600 1100-1199 1000-1099 800-999 400-799
SAT Score
BA
+ A
tta
inm
en
t R
ate
Top SES
2nd SES
3rd SES
Bottom SES
Source: Anthony Carnevale, Liberal Education, Fall 2008, p. 58.
Latinos in a national context
Source: Chronicle Analysis U.S Department of Education Digest of Education Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division; NCES Education Projections to 2018
1998-2008 Enrollment Growth Latino Percent of Population and Enrollment 2008-2018
WICHE Projections of High School Graduates
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
Latino high school graduate population will grow substantially in Western and Southern states
WICHE Projections of High School Graduates
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
Latino high school graduate population will not be as dramatic in Midwestern and Northeastern states
Latino High School Seniors (2008-09)
WA 2%
OR 1%
CA 35%
AK
NV 1%
MT
CO 2%
OK 1%
WI 1%
NE
HI
ID
WY
AZ 5%
KS 1%
ND
IA
AR
UT 1%
NM 2%
TX 20%
MN 1%
MO
LA
SD
MS
KY
IL 4%
MI 1%
NY 5%
GA 1%
SC
VA 1%
MD 1%
AL
TN
IN 1%
OH
PA 1%
FL 7%
NC 1%
WVDE
NJ 3%
ME
VTNH
MA 1%RI
CT 1%
District of Columbia (not shown)
Un-shaded states = 0% - 0.5%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data, 2009
Out of 100…
White Kindergartne
rs
Black Kindergartne
rs
Latino Kindergartner
sGraduate from high school or get a GED
94 88 68
Complete at least some college
67 51 36
Obtain at least a Bachelor's degree
37 20 12
Source: The Education Trust. Analysis of U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2008, in The Condition of Education, 2009.
Composition of Total State Expenditures by Function, Fiscal 1987 - 2008
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, 2008 State Expenditure Report
State General Fund Expenditures, FY 1990 & 2008
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, 1990 & 2008 State Expenditure Report
-0.5 -1.0-1.0 -1.6 -2.1 -2.3 -2.8
-2.9-3.0 -3.3 -3.8
-3.9 -4.2-4.2-4.3-4.3-4.4-4.4 -4.8
-4.8-4.8 -5.1
-5.2-5.2-5.3 -5.6
-5.6-5.7-5.7
-5.8-5.8-5.9 -6.2
-6.3 -6.5 -6.7-6.8-6.9-7.0-7.0 -7.4 -8.0 -8.2
-8.9 -9.3-9.3 -9.8
-10.5-10.7
-5.7
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
UtahM
ontana
New Hampshire
DelawareNew Jersey
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
WisconsinVerm
ontO
hioNorth Dakota
ConnecticutKansas
ArkansasVirginia
NebraskaO
klahoma
MinnesotaColorado
West Virginia
KentuckyM
ichiganArizona
New YorkG
eorgiaHawaiiIllinois
PennsylvaniaAlaska
Rhode IslandU
nited States
New Mexico
CaliforniaIowa
IndianaNorth Carolina
FloridaIdaho
South CarolinaSouth Dakota
Missouri
Washington
OregonTexas
NevadaTennesseeM
ississippiLouisianaAlabam
a
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005.
Projected state and local budget deficits as a percent of revenues, 2013
Composition of Spending as a Share of GDPAssuming Discretionary Spending Grows with GDP
after 2005and All Expiring Tax Provisions are Extended
Federal Budget – Comptroller General
National Academy of Public Administration
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-
2,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
8,000,000.0
10,000,000.0
12,000,000.0
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000 $
6,62
1
$7,
385
$7,
756
$7,
892
$7,
887
$7,
769
$7,
725
$7,
510
$7,
079
$6,
824
$6,
905
$7,
134
$7,
217
$7,
450
$7,
670
$7,
858
$7,
931
$7,
961
$7,
667
$7,
140
$6,
661
$6,
573
$6,
893
$7,
099
$7,
220
$6,
904
$2,
147
$2,
245
$2,
341
$2,
403
$2,
469
$2,
518
$2,
575
$2,
657
$2,
866
$3,
043
$3,
146
$3,
230
$3,
343
$3,
375
$3,
387
$3,
384
$3,
293
$3,
278
$3,
289
$3,
360
$3,
525
$3,
718
$3,
891
$3,
982
$4,
027
$4,
106
Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment (millions)
Pu
blic
FT
E E
nro
llmen
t (M
illio
ns)
Do
llars
per
FT
E
Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service are included in the above figures. Constant 2009 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA).
Source: SSDB
Public FTE Enrollment and Education Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1985-2009
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
24.5%
30.1%
34.7%
37.4%
Recession
5 year
10 year
25 year
Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service is included in net tuition revenue, but excluded from total educational revenue in calculating the above figures.
Source: SSDB
Net Tuition as a Percent of Public Higher Education Total Education Revenue, U.S., Fiscal 1984-2009
Distribution: $/FTE and Enrollments
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Average Full Educational Cost per FTE Student Total Headcount EnrollmentAverage Full Educational Cost per FTE Student Total Headcount Enrollment
Tota
l Head
cou
nt E
nro
ll-m
en
t, 20
06
Source: Delta Cost Project IPEDS Database (Full Ed Cost from 10-year matched set; Enrollment from unmatched set)
Full
Ed
uca
tional C
ost
per
FTE
Stu
dent
(in 2
00
6
dolla
rs)
% Growth in Appropriations per FTE 1994 to 2009 constant 2009 dollars
Source: SSDB and SHEEO SHEF FY 2009Notes: All constant 2009 dollars have been adjusted by the Higher Education Cost Adjustment, EMI and COLA2009 State and Local Support and Educational Appropriations include about $2.3 billion of ARRA Funds
% Change in Total Revenue per FTE, 1994-2009 constant 2009 dollars
Source: SSDB and SHEEO SHEF FY 2009Notes: All constant 2009 dollars have been adjusted by the Higher Education Cost Adjustment, EMI and COLA2009 State and Local Support and Educational Appropriations include about $2.3 billion of ARRA Funds
Cost per FTE by Carnegie Grouping, 2007 (public institutions)
Source: SHEEO, Degree Production and Cost Trends; A National Analysis, 2010
Cost per Degree by Carnegie Grouping, 2007 (public institutions)
Source: SHEEO, Degree Production and Cost Trends; A National Analysis, 2010
Wrong Ideas about Money
There is a “right” amount
The only way to get better results is spend more money
We can get the results we need without spending more money
Right Questions about Money
What do we need from higher education?
What can we do better with the money we have?
What do we need that justifies additional funds?
It takes more than money…
Support K-12 Common Core State Standards for Math and English
Insist that postsecondary institutions set ambitious goals to increase the number of students completing degrees and certificates
Encourage students to study full-time or nearly full-time. Too much work while pursuing postsecondary education is a poison pill
Support higher tuition in community colleges in California, while insisting on sufficient state and federal student aid and user-friendly application processes.
Contact Information
Paul LingenfelterPresident, SHEEO
[email protected](303) 541-1605
SHEEO, the national association of state-wide higher education executives, focuses on public policy for higher education in the U.S. It was founded in
1954.