From: FDRA tcrockett@fdra.orgSubject: Footwear & Politics: Washington Update

Date: October 15, 2015 at 3:45 PMTo: tcrockett@fdra.org

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October 15th, 2015

Latest TPP Update: Clinton Opposes TPPDuring a PBS NewsHour interview last week and the Democratic PresidentialDebate Tuesday night, Hillary Clinton said she no longer supports the Trans-PacificPartnership (TPP) that she promoted as Secretary of State. Criticizing theagreement for not being tougher on currency manipulation and pharmaceuticalcompanies, Clinton said "as of today" she is not in favor of TPP. Although theposition distances her from the Obama administration, and Vice President JoeBiden should he enter the race, her opposition to TPP could make it difficult forDemocrats to support the agreement when it comes before Congress. Clinton haspreviously said that "TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements." Numerousmedia outlets and commentators have questioned the policy shift, including the TheWashington Post, Bloomberg, Politico, The Wall Street Journal, and David Brooks(NY Times). CNN also featured an article earlier this year on the 45 Times ClintonPushed the Trade Bill She Now Opposes.

For those worried that bipartisanism no longer exists in Washington, the Republicanfrontrunner has also come out in strong opposition to TPP. On the announcementof the historic 12-nation agreement, Donald Trump tweeted, "The incompetence ofour current administration is beyond comprehension. TPP is a terrible deal." DonaldTrump may define the debate on trade and force the other candidates to respondas he has done for immigration, which could make passing TPP difficult for someRepublicans.

McCarthy Drops Out of Speaker Race Chaos in House as Republicans Try to Find Next Leader

Just two weeks after Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) shocked Washington byannouncing he would step down and retire from Congress at the end of October,the person to succeed him as Speaker withdrew from the race. Republicans met onOctober 8th to confirm Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as their nominee for Speaker, butduring the meeting, he told them he was not the one for the job.

McCarthy's recent comments, suggesting the House Benghazi Committee hadbeen successful because it lowered Hillary Clinton's poll numbers, created a majorheadache for Republicans who have assured the public the committee is notpolitical. In addition, the approximately forty-member conservative FreedomCaucus pushed for greater control in House Leadership and threw their supportbehind a challenger, Daniel Webster (R-FL), currently serving his third term inCongress. This ensured that McCarthy, once nominated, would have a difficult timegetting the 218 votes he would need to become Speaker in the full House electionon October 29th. After withdrawing from the race, McCarthy told the press that hethought a new face was needed to unify the party.

Will Paul Ryan Run for Speaker Now? House Republicans are urging Paul Ryan (R-WI), the 2012 Republican vicepresidential candidate and current chair of the powerful trade and tax-writingcommittee in the House, to run for Speaker. Ryan has said repeatedly he is notinterested in running for Speaker because the job would take time away from hisfamily, but he may be reconsidering. Ryan is one of the few Republicans who canunify the party, but trying to manage a fractious party and becoming the face of anunpopular Congress carries huge political risk, especially if he wants to run for

unpopular Congress carries huge political risk, especially if he wants to run forpresident in the future. The last time a former Speaker became president was 1845with James K. Polk, relative of FDRA vice president Andy Polk.

Who Else Could Be Speaker? More than 12 members of Congress may be mulling a run to be Boehner'sreplacement should Paul Ryan announce (again) that he will not enter the race.The leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee, Bill Flores (TX), isrunning, as is Daniel Webster (FL), a candidate backed by a group of conservativesthat broke away from the Republican Study Committee earlier this year to form theHouse Freedom Caucus. Jason Chaffetz (UT) entered the race before McCarthy'sdeparture. Other names that have been mentioned this week as possiblecandidates include Marsha Blackburn (TN),Darrell Issa (CA), Mike Conaway (TX),Michael McCaul (TX), Pete Sessions (TX), Lynn Westmoreland (GA), Greg Walden(OR), John Kline (MN), Tom Cole (OK), Pete Roskam (IL) and Mike Pompeo (KS).The Wall Street Journal reported that a freshman member,Ryan Zinke (MT), is evenconsidering a run. Zinke, who has been in Congress for ten months, told the WallStreet Journal, "I don't think the résumé should necessarily be built upon statusquo."

FDRA Analysis: During his three terms as Speaker, John Boehner was able tosuccessfully navigate multiple trade deals through Congress and convince enoughRepublicans to support Trade Promotion Authority even though it gave PresidentObama a political victory. It is critical that the next Speaker has enough leadershipand support to push the Trans-Pacific Partnership across the finish line, which willbe an incredible challenge in an election year. We will keep you postedon this important race.

Defense Secretary: TPP Makes 'Strong Strategic Sense'The Trans-Pacific Partnership provides an opportunity to significantly benefit theU.S. footwear industry, but the historic 12-nation agreement is also strategicallyimportant to the United States according to the Secretary of Defense. "TPP alsomakes strong strategic sense as a critical piece of our rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific," Defense Secretary Ash Carter stated on October 5th, "Our strategy is topromote an Asia-Pacific regional security architecture where everyone rises andprospers. By building partnerships through principle, openness, and highstandards, TPP will help reduce regional instability and cement American influenceand leadership in this fast-growing region in the world." In April 2015, SecretaryCarter said, in terms of the rebalance, TPP is more important to him than anotheraircraft carrier.

FDRA has also worked to communicate such ideas to gain the support of Membersof Congress on defense and national security committees, who many not oftenwork on trade issues. You can read our editorial in one of Washington's top nationalsecurity websites about how important TPP is to America's national security.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks as FDRA launches our next bigadvocacy campaign: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

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