Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P ...

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:30 Initial Claims 266 11/4 -7 0.42

8:30 Continuing Claims 2110 11/4 -45 0.42

8:30 CPI 0.6 10/13 0.1 0.30

8:30 Core CPI 0.4 10/13 0.0 0.30

10:00 Wholesale Inventories 1.2 10/27 0.1 -0.51

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

6:00 NFIB Small Business 100.0 10/12 99.5 99.1 -0.4 -0.24 C Disc Tel Svcs

8:30 PPI 0.6 10/14 0.6 0.5 -0.1 1.71 Mat. C Disc

8:30 Core PPI 0.5 10/14 0.5 0.2 -0.3 1.71 Mat. C Disc

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

CNK Credit Suisse Neutral Outperf

COTY Ray James Neutral Buy

FATE Citigroup Neutral Buy

NEWR JP Morgan Underwgt Overwgt

NEWR JP Morgan Mkt Wgt Overwgt

VGR Oppenheim Mkt Perf Outperf

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

MCFE Mizuho Buy Neutral

NUE Citigroup Buy Neutral

OYST JP Morgan Buy Neutral

VLDR Citigroup Buy Neutral

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

BPOP Wells Fargo Initiated Overwgt

FSR Credit Suisse Initiated Outperf

INGR Barclays Initiated Overwgt

INKT Wlm Blair Initiated Outperf

MRNA Wolfe Initiated Outperf

UP M Stanley Initiated Underwgt

- US Futures Mixed as 10-Year Yield Drops to 1.46%.

- Crypto Rallies as Bitcoin and Ethereum Hit Record Highs.

- Fed's Brainard Still in Running to Replace Powell As Fed Chair.

Trading Up ($):

NEWR (25.16), RBLX (19.75), TSLA (8.39), GE (8.19), COIN (8.05), MARA (5.35)

Trading Down ($):

FRPT (-21.94), PYPL (-13.02), LMND (-4.2), NVAX (-3.87), CROX (-3.53), TRIP (-3.06)-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow and Beyond

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Key Earnings Reports

Key Major Economic Indicators

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AMC Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues but traded down 5% afterhours.

BA 9% of company's workforce has applied for vaccine exemptions.

BNTX Stock higher in pre-market after reporting better than expected EPS and sales/

CAH Reported weaker than expected EPS on stronger revenues; sees inflationary pressures in Q4.

CMPS Trading higher by more than 10% following positive data from depression treatment trial.

DHI Reported better than expected EPS and sales; raised guidance; supply chain issues continue.

DOOR Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues; lowered guidance.

EVGO Announces expansion in partnership with GM to build out charging stations.

GE Announces plans to split into 3 separate companies focusing on aviation, energy, and HC.

HAIN Reported inline EPS on stronger revenues; reiterated sales guidance.

HOOD Disclosed unauthorized access to personal information of some of its customers.

MRK US exercises options to purchase 1.4 mln doses of molnupiravir.

PLTR Reported inline EPS on slightly stronger sales; raised sales guidance; stock down 3%.

PYPL Reported better than expected EPS on weaker sales and lowered guidance; stock down 5%.

RBLX Stock up over 25% after reporting narrower than expected loss and 31% increase in DAUs

SANM Down 9% after reporting weaker than expected EPS on weaker revenues; lowered guidance.

SDC Sock down 20%+ after disappointing earnings and lowering guidance.

TREX Report earnings triple play; sees signs of strong finish to 2021.

TRIP Down 8% after reporting weaker than expected EPS and revenues and CEO departure.

WRK Reported better than expected EPS on slightly stronger revenues.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.16 0.33 0.59

Technicals 0.11 0.24 0.57

Fundamental 0.21 0.38 0.87

Overall 0.18 0.35 0.69

Average (all days) 0.17 0.33 0.67

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

i -0.8 %

i 0.0

h 0.2

# 0.0

Oil 82.28 h $0.4

Gold 1825.9 i -$2.1

$/Euro 0.864 h 0.00

$/Yen 113.07 i -0.2

Bitcoin 67,827 h 1,689

10-Yr 1.46 i -0.03

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Market and Sector Seasonality – Last 10 Years

Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales

ADNT 11/10 AM 63% 58% 11% - 6. 85929648 2. 744680851 5. 093910074 - 2. 1575985 - 14. 4183506 2. 835921675 33. 07453416 5. 744680851

AER 11/10 AM 76% 78% 0% 1. 809083911 - 0. 52770449 - 2. 08333333 7. 852807284 2. 533969886 2. 764521968 1. 460711887 8. 154761905

ENR 11/10 AM 73% 65% 6% - 0. 6127451 0 2. 849303504 - 14. 7944044 - 14. 0241601 - 2. 66287487 1. 351351351 15. 19047619

PFGC 11/10 AM 65% 48% 17% - 4. 19642857 - 2. 98427448 4. 14189457 - 0. 48205678 - 3. 45721694 0. 11148272 0. 689127106 4. 378040306

PRGO 11/10 AM 71% 50% 26% - 12. 5686394 2. 829313544 4. 707631318 9. 493824171 - 5. 69666183 - 1. 89582183 - 14. 2195001 - 6. 72206833

WEN 11/10 AM 53% 59% 13% 3. 722197004 - 1. 40350877 - 5. 83405359 - 5. 96388072 7. 442849548 - 4. 66027875 - 0. 33589251 8. 17679558

WWW 11/10 AM 78% 53% 8% 0. 410798122 - 12. 84511 - 6. 69581853 - 2. 58264463 3. 964194373 - 4. 68833245 - 4. 3756311 4. 52892562

BZH 11/10 PM 58% 56% 18% - 1. 0298103 2. 339449541 - 8. 88157895 - 20. 1045904 6. 884798909 1. 688888889 - 12. 1488764 - 3. 75766871

COMP 11/10 PM 100% 0% 100% 4. 188481675 F F F F F F F

DIS 11/10 PM 80% 61% 0% 0. 998382509 - 2. 6017719 - 1. 69713478 2. 095631641 8. 798704067 - 0. 17811201 - 2. 32156429 3. 760529483

KGC 11/10 PM 47% 65% 0% 4. 306220096 - 4. 4386423 - 0. 41039672 9. 001233046 - 1. 4739229 - 3. 14735336 2. 8 - 11. 8503119

OPEN 11/10 PM 91% 74% 9% 24 - 13. 008596 - 9. 82161165 4. 643327963 0. 344781859 12. 40506329 - 3. 29971182 5. 497745404

SPTN 11/10 PM 71% 46% 5% - 0. 38797284 - 3. 62941738 0. 220994475 3. 266596417 - 9. 35541629 0. 339640951 10. 57764441 - 8. 67678959

Price Reaction: most recent report is on the left.

Price Reaction

(Last 8 Reports)

Beat Rate Raised

Guid.

Other Key Events

Sector One Week One Month Three Months

Comm Services (XLC) 0.16 1.45 5.35

Cons Discret (XLY) 1.12 2.77 7.34

Cons Staples (XLP) 0.48 2.29 2.32

Energy (XLE) -1.26 -0.83 -4.07

Financials (XLF) -0.32 2.90 3.76

Health Care (XLV) 0.00 1.76 4.29

Industrials (XLI) 0.41 2.41 2.38

Materials (XLB) 0.21 0.66 1.88

Real Estate (XLRE) 0.23 1.87 4.70

Technology (XLK) 0.74 1.65 5.56

Utilities (XLU) 0.13 0.34 1.38

Median Performance (%) From 11/9 Close…

One Week One Month Three Months0.21% 2.13% 4.88%

46 78 89

10:30 DoE Energy Inventories

12:00 EIA Nat Gas Stockpiles

EFX Investor Day

Baird Industrials Conference

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Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro N N

$/Yen N OB

2-Year N OS

10-Year N N

Gold OB N

Silver OB N

Copper N N

Crude Oil N OB

Heating Oil N N

Gasoline N N

Natural Gas N N

OS N OB

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0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

COTY 15.1 25 1.3 52.0 3.5 60.0

ASTE 14.9 2 -1.1 0.0 3.2 50.0

CORT 10.7 6 -0.7 50.0 -5.6 0.0

AMD 10.1 10 -1.0 50.0 0.6 50.0

EHTH -25.6 10 0.8 60.0 5.4 70.0

VSAT -16.9 3 2.7 66.7 12.6 66.7

SHAK -7.9 40 0.6 60.0 0.2 60.0

TSE -7.5 45 0.8 55.6 3.3 62.2

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB OB

Cons Discret. OB OB

Cons Staples OB N

Energy OB OB

Financials OB OB

Health Care N N

Industrials OB OB

Materials OB OB

Technology OB OB

Comm. Svcs N N

Utilities N N

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

11.4

49.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OB

OS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 4.9 % 3.4 %10-Day A/D Line i 393 773# of Overbought Stocks h 248 204

# of Oversold Stocks i 57 63

P/E Ratio Trailing h 25.91 25.43 Forward h 22.66 22.32

Dividend Yield i 1.27 % 1.29 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield i 312 316Corporate Bonds 0 90 90

Current One Week Ago


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Ticker Price

NVDA 308.1 3.31 -3.97 40.0

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

AWK 168.94 -1.13 0.79 65.2

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive


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BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

5/14 6/11 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/1 10/29

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

5/14 6/11 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/1 10/29

50-DMA: 1155

200-DMA: 1141

1150

1154

1158

1162

1166

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

1159

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

1760

1770

1780

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

200-DMA: 1793

50-DMA: 1783

1828

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

4750

4850

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

4750

4850

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

4466

4498

4530

4562

4594

4626

4658

4690

4722

4754

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

200-DMA: 4235

50-DMA: 4481

4702

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

2050

2150

2250

2350

2450

2550

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

200-DMA: 2249

2230

2255

2280

2305

2330

2355

2380

2405

2430

2455

2480

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

50-DMA: 2270

2443

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

12550

13050

13550

14050

14550

15050

15550

16050

16550

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

12550

13050

13550

14050

14550

15050

15550

16050

16550

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

50-DMA: 15069200-DMA: 14234

14950

15150

15350

15550

15750

15950

16150

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

15982

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

200-DMA: 68

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

50-DMA: 77

82.21


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DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

13200

14300

15400

16500

17600

18700

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

13200

14300

15400

16500

17600

18700

5/11 6/9 7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29

200-DMA: 14660

14500

15500

16500

17500

18500

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

50-DMA: 14990

16890

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

151

154

157

160

163

166

5/14 6/14 7/13 8/10 9/8 10/6 11/3

151

154

157

160

163

166

5/14 6/14 7/13 8/10 9/8 10/6 11/3

200-DMA: 159

156.5

157.5

158.5

159.5

160.5

161.5

162.5

163.5

10/19 10/21 10/25 10/27 10/29 11/2 11/4 11/8

50-DMA: 161

162.22


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Snapshot: US equities are primed to open flat as a pop in futures that took them from small losses to

gains during the course of the overnight session gives way. Mixed earnings news is joined by news that

President Biden interviewed Lael Brainard (championed by progressives) for nomination to run the

Federal Reserve; Powell is viewed as the favorite, but it’s possible we see another Presidential shift in

Fed leadership as was the case under Trump. Commodities are mixed today and lower on balance,

while Treasuries are bull-flattening and the dollar is up. Global Economic Scorecard

Earnings: Nissan (ADR NSANY) doubled fiscal 2022 (ending March) net income guidance despite cutting

its sales forecast 10% to a level almost that far below analyst estimates. Reduced parts availability has

cut production but margins are holding up. In Germany, Pfizer (PFE) vaccine partner BioNTech (ADR

BNTX) raised Covid vaccine guidance and beat Q3 revenues by 22% in-line with the strong results from

PFE earlier. Porsche (ADR POAHY) reported no change in guide despite all the challenges in its portfolio

of global OEM brands. In Brazil, investment bank BTG Pactual beat estimates by 13% on a 20.1% RoE.

US homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) reported Q4 revenues 2.7% above forecasts and EPS 9.1% higher

than estimated despite a brutal 33% decline YoY in net orders. The company closed 21.9k homes in the

quarter, slightly below forecasts, and the backlog of homes on order dropped faster than expected.

Management is intentionally restricting the pace they sell homes at to match production to demand,

and guided 11% growth in completed homes next year versus this year; since fiscal year 2017, that

would be the second-slowest growth pace (after fiscal 2019). Another US report was software company

Palantir (PLTR) which reported Q3 revenues 1.8% above forecasts while guiding Q4 revenues 4.2%

above estimates. Q4 adjusted fee cash flow topped 30% of revenues as adjusted EBITDA margins hand-

ily beat estimates.

APAC Markets: Japan, Australia, and India were lower but most of onshore China (save a few very large

names), Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong all moved higher overnight. Unusually, Chinese large caps were

down a few bps despite firmly positive breadth within the index and better than 2:1 breadth across the

Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. Chinese IG-rated offshore dollar bonds have been under pressure

but the currency has been very stable and CGBs have staged a significant rally of late that has taken

yields back into the range they sat in during August and September. Iron ore hit a new 52-week low

overnight, but rebar gained slightly. Coal fell 4.1% while electricity-intensive metals were modestly

higher. In rates, the great Australian bond rally that had seen a plunge in yields across the curve after

the RBA last week took a pause with yields up. FX was mixed but biased towards stronger local FX.

Europe Markets: European equities are broadly higher with the STOXX 600 up 0.2% on modestly posi-

tive single-stock breadth; 85% of groups are higher with Financial Services, Banks, and Insurance the

only laggards. Extremely volatile Danish medical device maker Ambu is up 13% after earnings; the miss

initially prompted a 5% drop, but the stock has been wild intraday due to heavy short interest. Norwe-

gian fish farming company Bakkafrost is down 13% to pace decliners after a huge operating profits miss

in its Q3 report. Rates are broadly lower across the Eurozone, and yield curves are bull-flattening while

the rally in credit spreads is taking a pause with major CDS indices generally wider in spread for the first

time in a couple of weeks. Natural gas futures have been unable to gain on further supply disruption

data points this week.

Morning Commentary

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global







5

Overnight Data: Economic sentiment in major economies beat estimates last night as both ZEW sur-

veys (Europe) and Eco Watcher indices (Japan) showed a marked acceleration. That may be a sign that

supply chain constraints are starting to ease, but that hasn’t showed up in other data. For instance,

Swedish order volumes continue to deteriorate, while French capacity utilization keeps falling presum-

ably as a result of an inability to source inputs to goods and services production. In Mexico, inflation

beat and continued to rise despite Banxico tightening. Finally, NFIB data showed the percent of busi-

nesses reporting cost or quality of labor as their most important problem falling from 40% to 34%, driv-

ing a modest decline in overall labor market tightness reflected in NFIB monthly data.

Morning Commentary

Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Volatile But Soared In October Swedish Industrial Leading Indicators Still Deteriorating

French Businesses Need Inputs Not New Capacity ZEW Economic Growth Expectations Series

Mexican Core Inflation Still Accelerating Above 6% Big Drop In Labor Challenges In NFIB For October (Z-Score)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Current Expectations

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Swden Industrial Order Volume (2015 = 100)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Banque de France Business SurveyCapacity Utilization (%)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Germany Eurozone

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Mexico Core CPI MoM Ann. (SA By Bespoke)

-2

-2

-1

-1

0

1

1

2

2

3NFIB Labor Tightness Index

Single Most-Important Problem: Cost Or Quality of Labor








6

Coronavirus: After a brief uptick in case counts, we’ve started to see a steadying of case counts in the

last few days, so the trend looks nothing like it did last time at this year. Close to 80% of the over-12

population has received at least one vaccine dose and more two-thirds of over-12s are fully vaccinated

by our calculations.

Morning Commentary

COVID-19 National Tracking Data: As-Of 11/7/2021

Note: As-of 11/5/2021Note: As-of 11/7/2021

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Period Subject To Most Revision

Persons Receiving First Dose (% 12+Population, Daily Change, 7d Avg)

JNJ Paused

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New Cases ('000s)

7-Day Moving Avg

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Total Tests 7d Avg ('000s)Period Most Subject To Revision7 Day Positive Test Rate (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Total COVID-19Hospitalizations ('000s)

Period Most Subject ToRevision

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Partially Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Fully Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Total w 1+ dose: 78.9%

Fully Vax'd: 67.8%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Deaths

7-Day Moving Avg








7

Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

World

Americas Ex US

EU

East Asia

Africa

US

Rest of World

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

World

East Asia

Africa

India

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Canada

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

China

Japan

South Korea

Singapore


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