Last Report - media.bespokepremium.com · Last Report s r m m To S tt l y C A f l N a l e CY n l y...

9
Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P 10:00 Leading Indicators 1.3 8/20 0.3 0.32 10:00 Michigan Sentiment 75.0 8/28 1.3 0.67 Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst 8:30 Building Permits 1517K 8/18 1326 1495 169 0.23 C Disc Ener 8:30 Housing Starts 1483K 8/18 1245 1496 251 0.23 C Disc Ener 8:30 Philly Fed 15.0 8/20 20.8 17.2 -3.6 0.32 Tech Ener 8:30 Initial Claims 850K 9/10 850 884 34 -1.76 Mat. Ener 10:00 Continuing Claims 13,000K 9/10 12904 13385 481 -1.76 Mat. Ener 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage M Stanley Healthcare Conference Last Report Upgrades Ticker Firm From To AOS Rosenblatt Neutral Buy BHC B of A Underperf Neutral LEN Susquehanna Neutral Positive MRCY Goldman Neutral Buy MT B of A Neutral Buy ZI JP Morgan Neutral Overwgt Downgrades Ticker Firm From To CF HSBC Buy Hold FMCC Odeon Hold Sell FNMA Odeon Hold Sell GD Goldman Buy Sell NVCR Truist Buy Hold Initiations/Reiterations Ticker Firm Action Rating BSX Truist Initiated Buy CVS Piper Initiated Overwgt FMC UBS Initiated Buy HUN Stifel Initiated Buy RPAY Barclays Initiated Overwgt VECO Barclays Initiated Overwgt - Equities Continue Post-Fed Sell-Off. i -0.7 % i -0.5 i -0.7 i -0.4 Oil 40.22 h $0.1 Gold 1945.5 i -$15.5 $/Euro 0.847 h 0.00 $/Yen 104.54 i -0.4 10-Yr 0.67 i -0.03 Japan China Germany UK Trading Up ($): MLHR (3.715), SRNE (2.19), MRNA (1.96), ZI (0.99), NVAX (0.87), VXRT (0.55) Trading Down ($): AMZN (-52.1), TSLA (-14.26), NVDA (-11.08), ZM (-10.17), SNOW (-8.63), NFLX (-7.86) -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 Percent Change Asia Opens Europe Opens Today’s Events Stock Specific News of Note Noteworthy Macro Events Other Markets Overnight Trading Tomorrow Overnight Trading Analyst Actions Indicators/Events Market Timing Model © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information. Earnings Reports Economic Indicators & Events BespokePremium.com For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward 1 Ticker News AAPL Jefferies raises price target from $116.25 up to $135 on iPhone 5G strength. BMY Says 4-year data shows superior long-term survival rates with Opdivo in renal cell carcinoma. CMD Beat EPS forecasts by 25 cents (0.24 vs -0.01) on inline revenues. FICO Announces plans to cut workforce by 3.5% and close non-core offices. MLHR Beat EPS forecasts by 94 cents (1.24 vs 0.30) on stronger revenues; reinstates dividend. NKLA ValueAct founder defends fraud allegations at company. ORCL Trump says that he does not like the TikTok-ORCL deal as it is currently structured. SRNE Receives FDA clearance to start Phase 1 test of COVID-19 antibody treatment. UBER Bloomberg reports that company is looking to sell part of its stake in Didi. Bearish Bullish Category One Week Two Weeks One Month Sentiment 0.12 0.14 0.49 Technicals 0.20 0.38 0.57 Fundamental 0.11 0.30 0.38 Overall 0.12 0.25 0.55 Average (all days) 0.15 0.29 0.58 Expected S&P 500 Return (%) Neutral Index Changes Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs. None 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 Estimate 10:00 Fed's Bullard Discusses COVID Recovery 12:00 Fed's Bostic Discusses Racial Justice 13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count MOS Analyst Meeting DTE 1.01 IBOC 0.55 OMC 0.65 LAMR 0.50 TIF 0.58 WRE 0.30 Conferences & Meetings Dividends & Splits ETSY Will replace HRB in the S&P 500 effective 9/21 TER Will replace COTY in the S&P 500 effective 9/21. CTLT Will replace KSS in the S&P 500 effective 9/21. WING Will replace PBF in the S&P 400 effective 9/21. MEDP Will replace ATI in the S&P 400 effective 9/21. FOXF Will replace CLI in the S&P 400 effective 9/21. JAZZ Will replace RIG in the S&P 400 effective 9/21.

Transcript of Last Report - media.bespokepremium.com · Last Report s r m m To S tt l y C A f l N a l e CY n l y...

Page 1: Last Report - media.bespokepremium.com · Last Report s r m m To S tt l y C A f l N a l e CY n l y MT A l y ZI n l t s r m m To CF C y d CC n d l A n d l GD n y l ... OMC 0.65 LAMR

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

10:00 Leading Indicators 1.3 8/20 0.3 0.32

10:00 Michigan Sentiment 75.0 8/28 1.3 0.67

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

8:30 Building Permits 1517K 8/18 1326 1495 169 0.23 C Disc Ener

8:30 Housing Starts 1483K 8/18 1245 1496 251 0.23 C Disc Ener

8:30 Philly Fed 15.0 8/20 20.8 17.2 -3.6 0.32 Tech Ener

8:30 Initial Claims 850K 9/10 850 884 34 -1.76 Mat. Ener

10:00 Continuing Claims 13,000K 9/10 12904 13385 481 -1.76 Mat. Ener

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage

M Stanley Healthcare Conference

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

AOS Rosenblatt Neutral Buy

BHC B of A Underperf Neutral

LEN Susquehanna Neutral Positive

MRCY Goldman Neutral Buy

MT B of A Neutral Buy

ZI JP Morgan Neutral Overwgt

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

CF HSBC Buy Hold

FMCC Odeon Hold Sell

FNMA Odeon Hold Sell

GD Goldman Buy Sell

NVCR Truist Buy Hold

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

BSX Truist Initiated Buy

CVS Piper Initiated Overwgt

FMC UBS Initiated Buy

HUN Stifel Initiated Buy

RPAY Barclays Initiated Overwgt

VECO Barclays Initiated Overwgt

- Equities Continue Post-Fed Sell-Off.i -0.7 %

i -0.5

i -0.7

i -0.4

Oil 40.22 h $0.1

Gold 1945.5 i -$15.5

$/Euro 0.847 h 0.00

$/Yen 104.54 i -0.4

10-Yr 0.67 i -0.03

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Trading Up ($):

MLHR (3.715), SRNE (2.19), MRNA (1.96), ZI (0.99), NVAX (0.87), VXRT (0.55)

Trading Down ($):

AMZN (-52.1), TSLA (-14.26), NVDA (-11.08), ZM (-10.17), SNOW (-8.63), NFLX (-7.86)-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Economic Indicators & Events

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AAPL Jefferies raises price target from $116.25 up to $135 on iPhone 5G strength.

BMY Says 4-year data shows superior long-term survival rates with Opdivo in renal cell carcinoma.

CMD Beat EPS forecasts by 25 cents (0.24 vs -0.01) on inline revenues.

FICO Announces plans to cut workforce by 3.5% and close non-core offices.

MLHR Beat EPS forecasts by 94 cents (1.24 vs 0.30) on stronger revenues; reinstates dividend.

NKLA ValueAct founder defends fraud allegations at company.

ORCL Trump says that he does not like the TikTok-ORCL deal as it is currently structured.

SRNE Receives FDA clearance to start Phase 1 test of COVID-19 antibody treatment.

UBER Bloomberg reports that company is looking to sell part of its stake in Didi.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.12 0.14 0.49

Technicals 0.20 0.38 0.57

Fundamental 0.11 0.30 0.38

Overall 0.12 0.25 0.55

Average (all days) 0.15 0.29 0.58

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

Index Changes

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

None

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

Estimate

10:00 Fed's Bullard Discusses COVID Recovery

12:00 Fed's Bostic Discusses Racial Justice

13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count

MOS Analyst Meeting

DTE 1.01 IBOC 0.55

OMC 0.65 LAMR 0.50

TIF 0.58 WRE 0.30

Conferences & Meetings

Dividends & Splits

ETSY Will replace HRB in the S&P 500 effective 9/21

TER Will replace COTY in the S&P 500 effective 9/21.

CTLT Will replace KSS in the S&P 500 effective 9/21.

WING Will replace PBF in the S&P 400 effective 9/21.

MEDP Will replace ATI in the S&P 400 effective 9/21.

FOXF Will replace CLI in the S&P 400 effective 9/21.

JAZZ Will replace RIG in the S&P 400 effective 9/21.

Page 2: Last Report - media.bespokepremium.com · Last Report s r m m To S tt l y C A f l N a l e CY n l y MT A l y ZI n l t s r m m To CF C y d CC n d l A n d l GD n y l ... OMC 0.65 LAMR

Ticker Price

K 63.93 -2.67 1.05 70.0

ILMN 322.47 -2.19 0.41 66.7

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

TPR 18.10 2.96 -1.39 49.1

DISCA 24.27 2.39 -0.80 41.8

CMCSA 46.81 2.39 -0.84 44.6

NWL 17.99 2.32 -1.17 30.2

VIAC 30.68 2.23 -1.11 34.7

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro N N

$/Yen OS N

2-Year OB N

10-Year OS OS

Gold N N

Silver N N

Copper OB OB

Crude Oil N OS

Heating Oil OS OS

Gasoline N OS

Natural Gas N N

OS N OB

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

ARWR 40.3 20 3.1 80.0 7.9 70.0

GME 22.4 18 1.8 50.0 5.6 50.0

AMCX 21.2 5 -0.6 60.0 -1.8 60.0

PLCE 13.3 10 -0.6 50.0 4.7 60.0

AXL -13.0 13 -1.6 23.1 -4.1 30.8

SYNH -10.2 7 3.9 57.1 -1.1 28.6

HZO -8.7 33 0.9 57.6 1.1 60.6

ILMN -8.4 19 1.4 63.2 2.6 68.4

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 N N

Cons Discret. N N

Cons Staples N OB

Energy OS OS

Financials N N

Health Care N N

Industrials OB N

Materials OB OB

Technology N N

Comm. Svcs N N

Utilities N N

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

15.8

37.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OBOS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread i 1.5 % 2.6 %10-Day A/D Line h 148 26# of Overbought Stocks h 189 144# of Oversold Stocks i 79 91

P/E Ratio Trailing i 26.32 26.43 Forward i 25.79 25.96

Dividend Yield h 1.78 % 1.77 %

Net Earnings Revisions h 10.7 % 7.9 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield h 516 513Corporate Bonds h 137 135

Current One Week Ago

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

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For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

Page 3: Last Report - media.bespokepremium.com · Last Report s r m m To S tt l y C A f l N a l e CY n l y MT A l y ZI n l t s r m m To CF C y d CC n d l A n d l GD n y l ... OMC 0.65 LAMR

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

3/23 4/21 5/19 6/16 7/14 8/11 9/8

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

3/23 4/21 5/19 6/16 7/14 8/11 9/8

50-DMA: 1179

200-DMA: 1211

1155

1157

1159

1161

1163

1165

1167

1169

1171

1173

1175

8/27 8/31 9/2 9/4 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

1165

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

200-DMA: 1716

50-DMA: 1937

1966

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2100

2250

2400

2550

2700

2850

3000

3150

3300

3450

3600

3750

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

2100

2250

2400

2550

2700

2850

3000

3150

3300

3450

3600

3750

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

200-DMA: 3101

50-DMA: 3336

3385

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

200-DMA: 1462

1480

1500

1520

1540

1560

1580

1600

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

50-DMA: 1522

1552

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

6250

7250

8250

9250

10250

11250

12250

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

6250

7250

8250

9250

10250

11250

12250

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

50-DMA: 10983

200-DMA: 9456

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400

11600

11800

12000

12200

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

11050

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

200-DMA: 41

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

50-DMA: 41

40.22

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward3

DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

3/18 4/16 5/14 6/12 7/13 8/10 9/8

200-DMA: 9672

10850

10950

11050

11150

11250

11350

11450

11550

11650

11750

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

50-DMA: 10518

11555

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

162

166

170

174

178

182

3/23 4/21 5/19 6/17 7/16 8/13 9/11

162

166

170

174

178

182

3/23 4/21 5/19 6/17 7/16 8/13 9/11

200-DMA: 170

174.0

174.5

175.0

175.5

176.0

176.5

177.0

177.5

178.0

178.5

179.0

8/26 8/28 9/1 9/3 9/8 9/10 9/14 9/16

50-DMA: 178

176.16

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary

Overview: The dollar is flat, Treasuries are bull flattening in style, and oil prices are coming back from

an overnight drop as US large cap equity markets eye a 1.2% decline at the open. The move lower

would keep the S&P 500 above its 50-DMA, but it might have trouble doing so for long given trouble

for global risk proxies. As an example, EURJPY is down 1.6% in three days and is in full retreat mode

from mid-August 52w highs. Global Economic Scorecard

Stimulus: The Congressional GOP is basically unified behind the idea that more large-scale stimulus is

not necessary and that aid to state and local governments especially is not helpful, let alone extended

subsidies to unemployment insurance at the state level. But the President has decided to complicate

internal GOP politics by declaring he wants “much higher numbers.” As always, it’s important not to

read too much into public statements by the President as an indicator of what he wants, what the par-

ty will agree to, or what’s feasible under other constraints. That said, any time GOP ideological ortho-

doxy (minimizing government spending, reducing social safety net, cutting taxes) has come up against

the President’s wishes, it should be made note of. It’s still hard to see any stimulus plan passing before

the election as Congressional leadership of both parties are at loggerheads over scale and specific con-

tents of any stimulus package.

Hurricanes: Sally is moving east-northeast from the Gulf Coast across Georgia, with storm tracks likely

taking the system back to the Atlantic across the Carolinas. Hurricane Teddy is now headed north-

northwest from the central Atlantic, and is unlikely to pose any threat to land. Another tropical disturb-

ance seated in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico has a high likelihood of development within 48 hours

and storm tracks would take the system due north towards the already-battered US Gulf Coast.

APAC Markets: It was not a constructive session in Asia, as every major local index except Shenzhen

was down on the day and we saw >1% drops in Hong Kong, Korea, Australia, and Malaysia. Iron ore

futures continued to plunge in Singapore, though the 50-DMA was intraday support for a second ses-

sion in the Chinese futures markets for the metal. Chinese yuan walked back most of Wednesday’s

surge to 52-week highs versus the dollar as regional FX was broadly mixed but showed a risk-off tilt. In

Indonesia, the BSRI made no change to rates, opting to continue defending the sliding rupiah rather

than provide more stimulus to offset the ongoing burden of COVID on the economy.

Europe Markets: Only Health Care is higher at the group level within the STOXX 600 this morning, with

Banks, Resources, and Tech leading the way lower. Seven different groups are down over 1% and single

-stock breadth is at more than 2:1 to the downside. All major national indices are down with the FTSE

MIB the big loser off 1.2%. The STOXX 600 has rallied materially off its lows of the session but is still

down 0.7% versus yesterday amidst widening credit spreads and falling risk free rates.

As with the UST market, German benchmarks are bull-flattening as rates drop led by the long end, un-

winding much of the move higher in long-term yields yesterday. The biggest single name mover in the

European equity market this morning is German leasing company GRENKE, up 20% after falling 51%

yesterday on accusations of fraud. Embattled shopping, office, and convention center REIT Unibail-

Rodamco-Westfield is down 7.5% to fresh record lows this morning, the worst-performer in Europe.

Page 5: Last Report - media.bespokepremium.com · Last Report s r m m To S tt l y C A f l N a l e CY n l y MT A l y ZI n l t s r m m To CF C y d CC n d l A n d l GD n y l ... OMC 0.65 LAMR

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

5

Singaporean Trade: Last night Singa-

pore reported a surprise August export

surge, with the value of non-oil domes-

tic exports rising 10.5% MoM after sea-

sonal adjustment. Re-exports were up

over 8% and are now less than 3% be-

low their record February levels. Au-

gust container volumes at Singapore’s

port were also up 4% and are 2.3% be-

low their January peak. All of this is a

good sign for global activity’s recovery

around the world.

Italian Trade: Before seasonal adjust-

ment, Italy just reported its largest

trade balance ever. Seasonally-

adjusted, it’s a bit different, but the

fact remains that the Italian economy

has completely inverted its external

balance over the last ten years.

Eurozone Inflation: Today Eurostat

updated its measure of core harmo-

nized index of consumer prices (HICP)

data and the results confirmed the bru-

tal flash reading. As shown in the chart

at left, Eurozone core HICP was the

weakest on record YoY in August, rising

just 0.4%. Most of the drop was due to

a 0.6% impact from a German VAT cut,

but Eurozone inflation is still extremely

weak. There’s no way around it.

Eurozone Auto Sales: Finally, Eurozone

auto sales continued to bounce back

last month, up 0.9% to 4.9% below the

level they sat at in February before

March’s COVID crash in sales.

Morning Commentary Singapore Trade Volumes Recovering

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26 Singapore Non Oil Re-Exports SA By Bespoke (bn USD)

Singapore Non Oil Domestic Exports SA By Bespoke (bn USD)

Singapore Container Throughput SA By Bespoke (mm)

Italy Trade Balance (NSA) Hits A Record

Record Low Core Eurozone Inflation

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Italy Trade Balance NSA (bn €)

Italy Trade Balance SA (bn €)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Eurozone Core CPI YoY (%)

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

6

Coronavirus: Relative to last Wednesday, new

confirmed cases in the US reported yesterday

alone were up 28.8%. This is still likely a func-

tion of suppressed testing related to Labor Day,

but as we get further from that weekend it be-

comes less likely as an explanation. Even if we

are seeing case counts pick up again, the US is

still in a better position right now than Spain

(where confirmed cases are above the US peak)

and France (which is now above the US and ac-

celerating).

Morning Commentary

Note: population denominator excludes

states not reporting hospitalization data on a

given date.

US National COVID Tracking Statistics As-Of 9/15/2020

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

9007 Day Average Tests Per Day ('000s)

7d Avg Positive Test Rate

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Deaths Per Day

7 Day Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

New Confirmed Cases ('000s)

7 Day Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

Hospitalization RatePer mm Population

New Cases Per Day Per mm Population

0

50

100

150

200

250

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

US

EU

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

7

COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-

ence. We will update it daily on this page.

Morning Commentary

State

AK 0 0 82 3 2,375 225 3.5 0.4 -0.2 112.3 3.5 3,246.9 307.4

AL 15 6 953 70 6,053 1,172 15.7 3.1 1.1 194.3 14.3 1,234.5 239.1

AR 33 20 709 -26 12,555 5,873 5.6 10.8 6.7 235.0 -8.5 4,160.4 1,946.0

AZ 17 -10 481 -45 8,466 571 5.7 2.4 -1.3 66.1 -6.2 1,163.2 78.4

CA 111 14 3,348 -577 93,818 -15,243 3.6 2.8 0.3 84.7 -14.6 2,374.4 -385.8

CO 5 3 346 75 9,995 1,518 3.5 0.9 0.5 60.2 13.0 1,735.5 263.6

CT 2 1 185 76 14,508 1,813 1.3 0.5 0.2 51.9 21.3 4,069.3 508.5

DC 0 -1 51 7 2,940 -326 1.7 0.4 -1.0 72.1 9.3 4,166.0 -461.9

DE 1 1 132 24 1,705 -215 7.8 1.5 1.0 135.8 24.5 1,750.9 -220.8

FL 119 30 2,722 50 21,825 2,190 12.5 5.5 1.4 126.7 2.3 1,016.2 102.0

GA 42 -6 1,681 -129 19,187 -1,690 8.8 3.9 -0.6 158.4 -12.2 1,807.2 -159.2

GU 1 0 36 -1 394 -81 9.3 6.9 0.0 219.8 -7.8 2,375.8 -489.6

HI 2 0 117 -79 3,603 -1,483 3.2 1.2 -0.2 82.6 -55.8 2,544.8 -1,047.1

IA 6 -4 654 -40 4,791 231 13.6 1.9 -1.1 207.2 -12.7 1,518.5 73.1

ID 5 2 261 31 1,587 -47 16.5 2.7 1.0 146.2 17.3 888.0 -26.4

IL 24 5 1,804 -378 48,081 -10,075 3.8 1.9 0.4 142.4 -29.8 3,794.3 -795.1

IN 11 0 903 84 14,839 5,493 6.1 1.6 0.1 134.2 12.5 2,204.2 815.9

KS 13 8 494 -1 3,259 92 15.2 4.5 2.6 169.7 -0.5 1,118.6 31.6

KY 10 3 684 114 21,356 15,073 3.2 2.2 0.7 153.1 25.6 4,780.0 3,373.9

LA 22 3 568 -169 16,460 2,863 3.4 4.7 0.6 122.2 -36.3 3,540.8 615.8

MA 14 2 365 78 47,590 1,861 0.8 2.0 0.3 52.5 11.2 6,848.0 267.8

MD 6 -2 616 8 9,634 -349 6.4 0.9 -0.3 101.9 1.3 1,593.5 -57.7

ME 1 0 30 6 4,637 -604 0.6 0.4 0.3 22.0 4.3 3,449.9 -449.7

MI 8 -7 840 69 30,741 4,103 2.7 0.8 -0.7 84.1 6.9 3,078.1 410.9

MN 9 4 564 -120 6,886 -734 8.2 1.6 0.6 99.9 -21.2 1,220.9 -130.2

MO 9 -9 1,445 121 13,353 2,952 10.8 1.5 -1.5 235.4 19.8 2,175.7 480.9

MP 0 0 0 0 119 119 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0 2,158.6 2,153.4

MS 19 5 490 -2 3,299 -708 14.8 6.4 1.7 164.6 -0.5 1,108.5 -238.0

MT 3 1 138 27 3,036 568 4.5 2.5 0.8 128.7 24.9 2,840.5 531.2

NC 27 2 1,213 -70 27,610 2,638 4.4 2.6 0.2 115.7 -6.6 2,632.5 251.6

ND 2 1 318 55 5,636 1,257 5.6 2.2 0.9 416.7 71.8 7,396.1 1,648.9

NE 4 3 356 84 3,373 558 10.6 2.2 1.7 184.1 43.6 1,743.8 288.3

NH 1 1 41 13 1,538 -131 2.7 0.5 0.4 30.0 9.4 1,131.3 -96.0

NJ 6 0 400 58 20,546 -6,437 1.9 0.7 0.0 45.1 6.5 2,313.2 -724.7

NM 3 0 106 3 4,617 -279 2.3 1.6 0.2 50.6 1.4 2,202.1 -133.0

NV 12 1 284 -57 3,523 299 8.1 3.8 0.3 92.3 -18.4 1,143.7 97.1

NY 6 1 745 39 79,179 938 0.9 0.3 0.0 38.3 2.0 4,070.1 48.2

OH 33 12 1,079 51 31,274 5,871 3.5 2.8 1.0 92.3 4.3 2,675.5 502.3

OK 9 3 908 78 10,580 1,967 8.6 2.2 0.7 229.4 19.6 2,673.8 497.0

OR 4 0 197 -2 3,885 -71 5.1 0.9 0.0 46.7 -0.6 921.1 -16.9

PA 14 1 814 3 12,599 1,280 6.5 1.1 0.1 63.6 0.2 984.1 100.0

RI 3 1 97 12 7,969 -913 1.2 2.6 1.1 92.0 11.3 7,522.9 -862.0

SC 27 6 1,130 314 11,048 2,722 10.2 5.3 1.2 219.4 61.0 2,145.9 528.6

SD 3 2 246 22 1,681 400 14.6 3.1 2.4 277.8 24.5 1,900.0 452.5

TN 31 12 1,500 249 25,105 6,638 6.0 4.6 1.8 219.5 36.5 3,674.0 971.4

TX 112 -5 4,140 694 37,769 -5,556 11.0 3.9 -0.2 142.8 23.9 1,302.5 -191.6

UT 1 -1 582 175 4,456 153 13.1 0.4 -0.3 181.5 54.5 1,389.8 47.9

VA 27 19 1,010 46 15,178 2,419 6.7 3.1 2.2 118.3 5.4 1,778.2 283.4

VI 0 0 6 -1 175 39 3.3 1.4 -2.7 55.8 -9.5 1,672.1 367.6

VT 0 0 7 4 699 -454 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.5 6.2 1,120.4 -728.0

WA 6 -1 400 -38 13,257 -1,581 3.0 0.8 -0.1 52.6 -5.0 1,740.9 -207.6

WI 7 1 1,407 492 9,570 1,994 14.7 1.1 0.1 241.7 84.5 1,643.6 342.4

WV 5 2 198 32 4,279 1,087 4.6 2.9 1.0 110.6 17.7 2,387.6 606.5

WY 1 0 59 25 733 -413 8.1 1.0 0.7 102.4 43.2 1,267.2 -713.6

US 850 129 37,943 1,556 763,372 29,583 5.4 2.6 0.4 114.3 4.7 2,300.2 89.1

Week

Change

COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 9/16/2020)Raw Count (7 Day Average) 7 Day +ve

Test Rate

(%)

Per 1mm Population

Deaths

Day/Day

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Week

Change

Tests

Day/Day

Week

Change

Deaths

Day/Day

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Week

Change

Tests

Day/Day

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

8

Morning Commentary

% of % of

State Trend Peak Cases State Trend Peak Cases

WI Rising 100.0 1407 DE Rising 56.3 265

ND Rising 100.0 318 ME Rising 56.3 59

WV Rising 100.0 198 AL Rising 49.7 1906

MT Rising 100.0 138 WA Falling 49.2 801

WY Rising 100.0 59 PA Rising 49.0 1629

MO Rising 90.8 1445 HI Falling 45.9 234

KY Rising 90.1 684 GA Falling 44.9 3363

UT Rising 86.9 582 ID Rising 44.6 523

IN Rising 85.7 903 GU Falling 44.0 73

VA Rising 84.3 1010 TX Rising 41.8 8280

OK Rising 81.8 908 NH Rising 39.5 82

NE Rising 81.4 356 MS Falling 35.5 980

KS Falling 80.4 494 CA Falling 33.5 6696

AR Falling 79.9 709 NM Rising 32.1 212

OH Rising 78.6 1079 DC Rising 26.3 102

SD Rising 78.5 246 RI Rising 26.0 195

IL Falling 70.3 1804 LA Falling 25.1 1136

IA Falling 68.4 654 MP Falling 25.0 1

MN Falling 67.4 564 NV Falling 24.3 569

MI Rising 66.0 840 FL Rising 22.9 5444

TN Rising 60.4 1500 VI Falling 18.0 12

NC Falling 60.0 1213 CT Rising 16.7 370

AK Rising 58.2 82 MA Rising 16.1 730

SC Rising 58.0 1130 VT Rising 15.9 13

OR Falling 57.0 197 AZ Falling 12.5 962

CO Rising 56.6 346 NJ Rising 10.9 801

MD Rising 56.5 616 NY Rising 7.7 1489

State State

ID Rising 2.4 16.5 ND Falling -0.4 5.6

AL Falling -2.3 15.7 OR Rising 0.0 5.1

KS Falling -0.5 15.2 WV Falling -0.6 4.6

MS Rising 2.6 14.8 MT Rising 0.0 4.5

WI Rising 2.6 14.7 NC Falling -0.7 4.4

SD Falling -2.9 14.6 IL Rising 0.0 3.8

IA Falling -1.6 13.6 CA Falling 0.0 3.6

UT Rising 3.6 13.1 CO Rising 0.3 3.5

FL Falling -1.1 12.5 AK Falling -0.2 3.5

TX Rising 3.0 11.0 OH Falling -0.6 3.5

MO Falling -1.9 10.8 LA Falling -2.0 3.4

NE Rising 0.9 10.6 VI Falling -1.7 3.3

SC Rising 0.4 10.2 HI Falling -0.6 3.2

GU Rising 1.3 9.3 KY Falling -5.9 3.2

GA Rising 0.1 8.8 WA Rising 0.1 3.0

OK Falling -1.1 8.6 MI Falling -0.2 2.7

MN Falling -0.8 8.2 NH Rising 1.0 2.7

WY Rising 5.1 8.1 NM Rising 0.2 2.3

NV Falling -2.5 8.1 NJ Rising 0.7 1.9

DE Rising 2.1 7.8 DC Rising 0.4 1.7

VA Falling -0.9 6.7 CT Rising 0.4 1.3

PA Falling -0.7 6.5 RI Rising 0.3 1.2

MD Rising 0.3 6.4 NY Rising 0.0 0.9

IN Falling -2.7 6.1 VT Rising 0.7 0.9

TN Falling -0.8 6.0 MA Rising 0.1 0.8

AZ Falling -1.0 5.7 ME Rising 0.2 0.6

AR Falling -5.3 5.6 MP Falling -99.8 0.2

State State

GU Falling -19.3 278 ND Rising 17.0 81

MS Falling -7.5 212 RI Rising 2.4 79

GA Falling -3.3 191 AZ Falling -18.2 74

MO Rising 5.9 161 WI Rising 22.5 64

NV Falling -11.6 158 AK Rising 12.5 62

SD Rising 82.9 157 DE Rising 9.4 60

HI Falling -13.6 157 MI Falling -4.2 59

SC Falling -2.1 152 ID Falling -7.9 59

AL Falling -15.8 147 MD Falling -6.2 57

LA Falling -13.3 146 OH Falling -7.0 56

TN Falling -8.2 142 NJ Rising 9.2 52

OK Rising 14.3 133 MA Rising 4.1 51

DC Falling -2.2 129 CO Rising 25.2 47

AR Falling -5.8 128 UT Rising 1.5 43

KY Rising 1.3 126 MN Falling -7.2 43

IL Falling -0.9 124 OR Rising 17.0 41

VA Falling -4.2 120 PA Falling -0.8 38

IN Rising 3.3 117 WA Falling -14.5 33

FL Falling -19.9 115 NM Falling -13.2 28

TX Falling -9.9 112 WY Rising 33.3 28

MT Falling -35.0 99 NY Rising 4.3 25

KS Falling -12.9 95 CT Rising 22.8 20

CA Falling -16.7 93 VT Rising 20.0 10

IA Falling -9.6 92 ME Rising 11.1 7

NC Rising 0.2 88 NH Rising 14.3 6

WV Rising 6.1 87 VI Falling n/a 0

NE Falling -6.7 86 MP Falling n/a 0

Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Trend

WoW

Change

Positive

Rate

New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory

COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 9/16/20

COVID-19 Positive Test Rate By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 9/16/20

Positive Test Rate: Distribution & TrajectoryTrend

WoW

Change

Positive

Rate

COVID-19 Per Capita Hospitalization By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 9/16/20

Trend

WoW %

Chg

Hospital

Rate Trend

WoW %

Chg

Hospital

RateHospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Hospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

9

US Calendar: Digestion of the ZIRP outlook is still happening today, but we get a data distraction this

morning thanks to claims, Philly Fed, and housing starts before the open. To stay on top of all the latest

reports, make sure to check out our Interactive Earnings Calendar. You can also follow US and Global

data with our Economic Scorecard.

Morning Commentary

Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 3335.25 -130.9 12.8 Gold 1955.50 -76.1 3.1

Russell 1531.80 -121.9 182.8 Silver 27.11 -133.2 25.9

VIX Fut 31.37 276.8 -450.5 WTI 40.11 -12.5 840.5

TSX 960.10 -59.0 -49.7 Copper 304.30 -58.8 230.3

2 Year 12.90 -0.8 12.8 Nikkei 23319.37 -66.5 36.1

5 Year 25.95 -2.2 25.7 CSI 300 4632.71 -52.9 110.7

10 Year 66.25 -3.4 65.6 ASX 200 5883.22 -122.4 -42.8

30 Year 142.00 -3.9 140.6 STOXX 600 370.36 -74.2 78.4

2s10s 53.15 -2.4 -0.5 BBG USD 1165.69 8.6 -51.1

5s30s 115.89 -1.7 0.9 EURUSD 1.1797 -16.1 -15.2

5 Yr BE 155.67 -2.2 154.1 USDJPY 104.61 -32.4 -143.2

10 Yr BE 166.14 -1.9 164.4 EM FX 55.77 -10.4 59.2

Sep '20 99.73 0.0 0.03 CDX IG 69.69 2.8 0.9

Dec '20 99.80 0.5 0.00 iTraxx IG 54.73 1.9 0.5

Mar '21 99.81 0.0 0.00 CDX HY 349.18 3.0 -27.8

Jun '21 99.81 0.5 0.00 iTraxx HY 298.67 1.6 -16.5

Euro

do

llar

s

Cre

dit

Bespoke Major Asset Class Dashboard

Equ

ity

Futs

Co

mm

od

ity

Trsy

Yie

lds

Int'

l Eq

uit

y

Cu

rve

s/B

E

FX

(bps)(bps)