Lake Pepin Watershed TMDL Site Specific … Pepin Watershed TMDL Site Specific Eutrophication...
Transcript of Lake Pepin Watershed TMDL Site Specific … Pepin Watershed TMDL Site Specific Eutrophication...
Lake Pepin Watershed TMDLSite Specific Eutrophication
Criteria Development
September 2008
Lake Pepin Photo by Guy Schmickle
Lake Pepin Compared to North Central Hardwoods Forest & Western Corn Belt Plains Thresholds. Listed in 2002
< 0.7> 32> 90WCP
1.025198Pepin mean1991-2000
< 1.1> 18> 45CHF
Secchi m
Chl-a ppb
TP ppb
Ecoregion & Lake
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Lake PepinM781.2O
M775.6Q
M771.2P
M766.0I
Two somewhat distinct segments
1. “Upper” – shallow inflow segment: 40% of lake by area, 28% by volume short Tw -2-3 days
2. “Lower” – deeper segment: 60% by area, 72 % by volume
LTRMP monitoring is primary source of data.
Consists of 4 “fixed sites” with 1 in upper and 3 in lower along thalweg of lake.
Lake Pepin characteristics compared to ecoregion reference lakes
Table 2. Lake Pepin morphometric and watershed characteristics as compared to interquartile range for CHF (n=38) & WCP (n=12) ecoregion reference lakes. Parameter Pepin CHF (25th-75th) WCP (25th-75th) Surface area (mi2) 39.7 0.62 – 1.38 0.43 – 0.59 Mean depth (ft) 17.7 21 - 26 8 - 11 Maximum depth (ft) 56 43 - 73 10 - 27 Maximum width (mi) 1-2 -- -- Length (mi) 20.8 -- -- Volume (acre-ft) 448,340 49,027 – 142,090 7,547 – 22,152 Watershed Area (mi2) 48,634 4 - 12 2 - 3 Watershed: lake surface area 1,225:1 6 - 9 4 - 7 Mean Hydraulic Retention Time 0.04 year
(16 days) 9.3 years (mean)
4.8 years (mean)
(Heiskary & Vavricka 1993)
(Heiskary & Wilson 2005)
Table 4a. Summer-mean flow statistics based on long-term (80-year) and recent (30-year) record (based on USGS June-Sept. readings at Prescott). Most recent year in that flow range noted.
Percent exceedance 95th
90th
75th
50th
25th
10th
Long (1928-2007)
5,296 7,610 10,600 17,595 24,700 31,109
Example year 1932 1961 2006 1967 1997 1984 Recent (1978-2007) 9,330 10,145 16,411 22,358 25,886 31,374 Example year 1989 2006 1982 1994 1995 1984
Table 4b. Comparison of 10th percentile flows based on continuous 72-year (1936-2007) and 30-year (1978-2007) records for three primary tributaries to Pepin.
River 30-year 72-year Upper Mississippi 4,499 3,688 St. Croix 2,174 2,149 Minnesota 3,236 1,033
Flow Record
Northern Lakes and Forests
North-Central Hardwood Forests
Western Corn Belt Plains
Northern Glaciated
Plains
Driftless Area
Northern Minnesota Wetlands
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Ecoregions of the Lake Pepin Watershed
Ecological Regions2.0% Driftless Area
32.0% North Central Hardwood Forests
13.4% Northern Glaciated Plains
30.8% Northern Lakes and Forests
<0.1% Northern Minnesota Wetlands
21.7% Western Corn Belt Plains
Lake Pepin
¯
Table 3. Lake Pepin watershed ecoregion composition. Estimated areal composition, flow contribution, and 25th percentile stream TP based on minimally-impacted streams for each ecoregion (McCollor and Heiskary, 1993). Estimated “background” TP for Lake Pepin based on ecoregion area and flow-based estimates.
Region Area % Flow % TP µg/L
area-based
flow-based
NLF 31% 42% 30 9 13 CHF 32% 38% 70 22 27 WCP 22% 16% 210 46 34 NGP 13% 4% 160 21 6
Mean 99 79
Lake Pepin residence time. Estimated based on summer-mean flow at Prescott
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
5,000
10,00
0
15,000
20,00
0
25,00
0
30,00
0
35,00
0
40,00
0
45,000
50,00
0
55,00
0
60,00
0
65,00
0
cfs
days
1976 & 1988
1990
2006
1993
2000
View as a continuum, “lake or reservoir-like” over ~60% of flows
Flow Duration Frequency vs. Pepin Residence Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Flow Duration Frequency (%)
Res
. tim
e da
ys
1928 1976
Lake-likeRiver-like
2006
1988
FlowTarget
~Reservoir-like~
Lake Pepin Chl-a vs Flow Duration Frequency: 1978 - 2006 (n=21 summers)
R2 = 0.68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Flow Duration Interval (%)
Chl
-a u
g/L
High Low
Chlorophyll (algal production) is inversely related to river flow
1990-2002 LTRMP Data (relatively high flow years)
Recent (1990-2002) mean & median chlorophyll-a by site
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Dam Upper Lower Outlet
ppb
Mean Med Max
Regression equation based on rivers is a better descriptor of TP & chlorophyll-a relationship for Pepin as compared to “glacial” lake regression
TP vs.chl-a regressions for reference lakes & rivers relative to Upper & Lower Lake Pepin
Rivers: y = 1.66x - 2.21R2 = 0.87
Lakes: y = 1.27x - 0.90R2 = 0.87
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8
Log TP ug/L
Log
chl-a
ug/
L
Lakes Rivers Upper Pepin Lower Pepin Linear (Rivers) Linear (Lakes)
(100 200 316)
32
10
Algal composition available for model development
•Lake users respond to BG blooms;
•Blue-greens low % of algal community in most summers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1992 (47%) 1994 (70%) 1995 (83%) 1996 (59%) 1997 (75%) 1998 (53%) 2006 (24%)
Upper L.P. - yes - Average of % BG Upper L.P. - yes - Average of % Greens
Upper L.P. - yes - Average of %Diatoms
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1992(47%)
1994(70%)
1995(83%)
1996(59%)
1997(75%)
1998(53%)
2005(65%)
2006(24%)
Lower L.P. - yes - Average of % BG Lower L.P. - yes - Average of % Greens
Lower L.P. - yes - Average of %Diatoms
Lower Lake
Table 4. Diatom-inferred pre-European phosphorus concentrations for Lake Pepin and lakes from adjacent ecoregions Pepin CHF-deep CHF-shallow WCBP-deep WCBP-shallow 35-40 ppb 1 25 ± 3 39 ± 4 47 ± 6 67 ± 11 # of lakes 35 6 5 6 1 Engstrom et al. (in press)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1762 1800 1860 1904 1921 1940 1964 1976 1988 1996
Year
Perc
ent o
f Dia
tom
s
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Tota
l Pho
spho
rus
(mg/
L)
Planktonic Diatoms Benthic Diatoms TP Estimate #1 TP Estimate #2
Limno Tech’s RCA Model
Scenario viewer allows for an overview of in-lake & river response to various load reduction scenarios;Variable response noted among low flow years;Focus on range of response for 3 low flow years: 1987, 1989, 2006 and one median flow year: 1998;Use to inform criteria selection & frame necessary reductions;
Summer-mean Chl-a as a function of TP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250
TP ug/L
Chl
-a u
g/L
1998 (28%) 1987 (14%) 2006 (10%) 1989 (3%)
In-lake response as a function of 3 low flow years& 1 median flow year; with 19 reduction scenarios per year
Days with Chl-a >50 ug/L as a function of summer-mean TP
0
10
20
30
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250
TP ug/L
days
1998 (28%) 1987 (14%) 2006 (10%) 1989 (3%)
Days with Chl-a >50 ug/L as a function of summer-mean chl-a
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Summer-mean ug/L
Day
s >5
0 ug
/L
1998 (28%) 1987 (14%) 2006(10%) 1989 (3%)
Blue-green algal biomass as a function of summer-mean TP
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250
TP ug/L
BG
bio
mas
s %
1998 (28%) 1987 (14%) 2006 (10%) 1989 (3%)
Summer-mean Secchi as a function of TP
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
TP ug/L
SD m
1998 (28%) 1987 (14%) 2006 1989 (3%)
Summer-mean Secchi as a function of chlorophyll-a
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Chl-a ug/L
Secc
hi m
1998 (28%) 1987 (14%) 2006 (10%) 1989 (3%)
Table 7. Draft Lake Pepin site specific criteria as compared to Minnesota’s lake eutrophication criteria for adjacent ecoregions. Ecoregion – lake type (use classification1) TP Chl-a Secchi
µg/L µg/L meters
Lake Pepin site specific goals: whole lake 100 32 0.8CHF – Aquatic Rec. Use – Deep (Class 2B) 40 14 1.4CHF – Aquatic Rec. Use – Shallow (Class 2B) 60 20 1.0WCP&NGP – Aquatic Rec. Use – Deep (Class 2B)
65 22 0.9
WCP&NGP – Aquatic Rec. Use - Shallow (Class 2B)
90 30 0.7
Site-specific Considerations
TP – 100 ug/L is in range of diatom-inferred TP c1900-1960. Slightly above 90 ug/L WCP criteria; however results in lower chl-a because Pepin produces less chl-a per unit TP;Chl-a 32 ug/L – slightly above 30 ug/L but deemed “protective of aquatic recreational use” since it results in a lower frequency of severe nuisance blooms & BG algae comprise a small proportion of blooms;Secchi – 0.8 m should ensure Secchi of 0.5-0.6 in upper (allow for growth of SAV) & in lower Secchi should average 0.9-1.0 m – consistent with criteria for deep WCP and shallow CHF lakes;
Evaluating Lake Pepin for attainment of criteria
Use LTRMP fixed site network (4 sites) as primary basis for assessment;Assess on a biennial basis as a part of 303(d) assessment; use most recent 10 years of data;Assess for summers when “reservoir-lake-like” – corresponds to flows of ~10,145-20,000 cfs;
Pepin Draft Site Specific Criteria (Eutrophication Impairment)
In-lake TP 100 μg/L ~ c1900-1960 based on diatom-reconstructed P;Viable chl-a 32 μg/L - met over majority of flows, seeks to minimize chlorophyll-a >50 ug/L;Secchi 0.8 m (upper & lower), allow for SAV in upper;Summer average June-Sept.Flow range ~10,145 cfs (10% recurrence) –20,000 cfs (Res. Time ~11 days) based on recent 30-year record