Laem Chabang Phase 3 Market Sounding #1 · 4.3. 35.9. 8.0. 223. 237. 14. 26. Thailand is the 2 nd...

Public presentation

Bangkok, May 2018

Laem Chabang Phase3 Market Sounding #1

Three market sounding sessions will be conducted for the planned development of Laem Chabang Port Phase 3Timeline for Market Sounding

Market sounding

May 2018 July 2018

Draft feasibility study

Market sounding #1

Date:Wednesday, 2 May

Market sounding #2

Date:To be confirmed

June 2018

Market sounding #3

Date:To be confirmed

Tentative

2

The objective of today's session is to share details on the project and its viability as well as to collect feedback on our findings so far

Market sounding

May 2018 July 2018

Draft feasibility study

Market sounding #1

Date:Wednesday, 2 May

Date:To be confirmed To b

Market sounding #2 Market sou

June 2018

nding #3

Date:e confirmed

Market sounding #1 objective> Create public awareness of the planned development of

Laem Chabang Port Phase 3, including project detailsand project viability

> Collect feedback on findings so far and investmentinterest for the project

3

69

513,120

403.6

4.3

35.9

8.0

223

237

14

26

Thailand is the 2nd largest economy in ASEAN in terms of GDP and is a significant exporter in the regionOverview of key indicators for Thailand, 2017

Population [mln]

Size [square km]

GDP [USD bn]

GDP growth [%]

Industrial GDP [% of total]

FDI [USD bn]

Imports [USD bn]

Exports [USD bn]

Trade balance [USD bn]

Ease of doing business [out of 190]

Key indicators 2017ASEANranking

Worldranking

4th

2nd

7th

2nd

5th

2nd

3rd

20th

27th

97th

12th

34th

10th

26th

2nd 19th

21st

51st

2nd

3rd

Thailand ASEAN Countries

Source: World Bank, CIA Fact book, ADB, Roland Berger

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Actual Forecast

We forecast Thailand's trade to grow from 330 mln MT to 1.5 bn MT in 2050, driven by various national initiatives

+5%766

+7%

+3%

2050F2045F

1,456

1,294

2025F 2035F2020F

1,130

329

951

601466

2030F 2040F2015

Forecasted trade for Thailand, 2015 – 2050 [mln MT]

National Economy and Social Development Plan Volume 12

Thailand Industrial 4.020-year development plan

Eastern Economic Corridor initiative (industrial cluster development)

Ministry of Industry Strategic Plans

Thailand energy efficiency development plan (2015-2036) incl. EV campaign

Sector, strategies, and trends

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Source: UN Comtrade, Roland Berger analysis 5

GDP of the neighboring CLMV region and Southern China is also expected to grow five fold by 2050 to USD 4.4 trillion

Overview of hinterland expansion

Population Growth

Myanmar> Driven by foodstuff and

machineries (electrical & mach.)

Vietnam> Driven by foodstuff, cereals,

textile, garments, and footwear

Laos> Driven by apparel, textile,

garment, and footwear

Southern China> Driven by electrical appliances

and parts and automotive parts

Cambodia> Driven by apparel, footwear,

machineries & auto parts

51.9 m USD 63 bn

65.5 m

USD 655 bn

91.7 mUSD 194 bn

124.6 m

USD 917 bn

7.0 mUSD 12 bn

11.6 m

USD 71 bn

15.5 m USD 18 bn

23.6 m

USD 102 bn

2015129 mUSD 596 bn

150 m

USD 2,665 bn

2050

GDP

Growthin GDP

4x

Thailand> Driven by machinery, electronics

and electrical products, automotive & rubber

67.9 mUSD 395 bn

77.7 m

USD 1,285 bn

10x

5x

6x

6x

3xFEAS

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Source: IMF, Roland Berger analysis 6

As Thailand's largest international port, LCP should act as both enabler and catalyst of economic growth and gateway for Indochina

Source: Roland Berger

LCP – Getting ready for the future

LCP in the Future"Gateway for Indochina"> Largest port in Indochina and largest domesticLCP Now

"Gateway for Eastern Seaboard"> Largest port in Thailand – 135 mln MT> Focused on Import / Export – Very limited

transit and transshipment> Most cargos are container (45%) and liquid

(33%)> 10 km total berth length> ~15 km2 of industrial area> Hinterland connectivity largely limited to

within Thailand> Past developments focused on container

capacity expansion

port in SEA – Estimated throughput ~650 mln MT> 40-50 km total berth length> 70-90 km2 of industrial area> Hinterland beyond Thailand, extends to CLMV +

South China> On-going expansion of port land and port capacity

"Industrial Engine of Growth"> Port dependent industries to drive throughput> Efficient connectivity with industrial and economic

centers> Comprehensive ecosystem of port-dependent and

maritime clustersFEAS

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We forecast total container demand at LCP to reach 29 mln TEUsby 2050, driven by both domestic and transit trade

28.5

2015 2020F 2025F 2030F 2035F 2040F 2045F 2050F

25.0

+4%21.8

+6% 14.9

18.4

11.99.2

6.8

+3%

Container throughput forecast and driver, 2015 – 2050 [mln TEUs]

TranshipmentEmpties

ImportExportTransit

Rationale

Import

Container trade balanceContainer trade destination (hinterland distance)

Already included –Revised for clarity

GNI growth Tourism growth Agriculture growth Population growth

Manufacturing growth Infrastructure growth

Transit Regional trade growthRegional consumption expenditure growth

Commercial arrangement Facilities and handling capabilities

Transshipment

Empties

Strong Neutral

Preliminary

Container

Export GNI growth Indochina growth Infrastructure growth

Trade/production centralization

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Source: Roland Berger 8

Pending future economic development and policy changes, actual throughput may vary – different scenarios may occur

LCP container demand forecast, 2015 – 2050 [mln TEU/yr]

21

28

18

23

15

0

10

20

30

2050F2045F2040F2035F2015 2030F2025F2020F

34 +20%

Source: PAT, Roland Berger

40

-20%Projected Phase 1 & 2 & 3combined capacity Pessimistic case: -20%

Phase 1 & 2 capacity

Best case Base casePessimistic case

18 mln TEU

11.1 mln TEU

Container

Slow down in Thai and ASEANeconomic growth (-10%)Lower LCP capture ratio, i.e. lose petroleum shareto Map Ta PhutSlowdown of basic infra. development, e.g.EECStagnant trade policies andagreements, i.e. less transit/ trade

1

2

3

4

Best case: +20%Higher growth in specific industries of LCP (e.g. petroleum, agriculture, etc.)Growing LCP capture ratio in specific industries, e.g. fertilizer

Infrastructure dev't goes according to plan

Enforced trade policies and agreementsas well as marketing

1

2

34

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9

10

14.9

2030

18.4

2035

21.8

2040

25.0

2045

28.5

20502020 2025

9.2

11.1

11.96.8

8.1

2015Legend

Demand Terminal capacity Phase 1 & 2

Laem Chabang port required container capacity [mln TEU]


We forecast that growth of demand will exceed LCP's current handling capacity by ~2024 prompting the need for expansion

TerminalA, B, C

Terminal Dcommences

TerminalA, B, C, D

Handling capacityreached

ContainerFE

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Berth length will grow threefold by 2050 through Phase 3 development – sufficient to accommodate growth in demand

Forecasted LCP trade vs. expected berth length, 2015 – 2050

25.021.8

18.414.9

11.9

10.3

3x

28.5

2045F 2050F2020F2015

9.5

2025F

6.05.2

9.2

8.7

2030F

7.7

2040F

6.8

3.8Total berth

length[km]

2035F

9.5

Aggregate Berth LengthContainer Trade


Trade[mln TEU]

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Based on our forecast, Phase 3 is estimated to have throughput of9.1 mln TEUs by 20501) at 10.2 mln TEUs capacity

4.5

16.2

2040 2045

Terminal capacity

23.727.0

25.021.8

9.18.6

7.9

2030 2035

Additional capacity expansions

6.4

18.4

2050

14.9

2025

28.5

18.8

34.530.7

0.71.31.8

2020

13.29.2

11.1 11.9

2015Legend

6.88.1

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

LCP container capacity & throughput container [in mln TEU]

Current Phase 2 Phase 3

F1 F2 E1 E2


Subsequent developments

Preliminary

1) Productivity improvement from 2,130 TEUs per berth meter in 2015 to 2,900 TEUs per berth meter in 2050

ContainerFE

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Design vessel dimension for LCP Phase 3 will be aligned to future demand

Design vessel dimensions

Maximum ship dimensions Trends in ship sizes

397 m x 56 m x 15.5 m

> Historical call size:– Average call size in 2016 for container ships at LCP was ~1,500 TEU– Share of large container ship at LCP is low. In 2015 and 2016 the

largest container vessels at LCP only had a capacity of approximately 10,000 TEU

> Assumption:– 15,000 TEU container vessels with 22 TEU reach are the probable

largest vessels likely to be deployed on routes that include LCP> Driver:

– Rise of e-commerce will dictate for:- Smaller shipments, more destinations- Increase in global trade, higher frequency of ships, faster and

greener ships

Container capacity [TEU]

22

8

10 Up to 15,000 TEU

22 TEU outreach

Container

Source: LCP Statistics, Roland Berger

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Actual Forecast

We also forecast total car demand at LCP to reach 4 mln cars by 2050, driven by growth of the automotive and EV industry

Total car demand at LCP [mln cars]

Car

2030F 2045F

3.8

2040F

+3.6%

2.8

1.9

2020F

+4.4%+5.0%

2050F

4.2

2025F

1.5

2035F

+3.3%

3.3

2.3

+2.5%

2015

1.3

Drivers

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Source: LCP, Roland Berger

Imports Increase domestic consumption/ consumer expenditureIncreased demand for premium European assembled vehiclesIncreased demand for eco-cars

Exports Increased investment in Thailand as the automotive production hub

Increased regional and global demand for new vehicles

Increasing relocation of major European car parts purchasing to Thailand,

14

15

2020 2025

1.5

2015Legend

2.2

1.3

2045

3.8

2040

3.3

2035

2.8

2030

2.31.9

4.2

2050

Terminal capacity Phase 1 & 2Demand

Laem Chabang port required car capacity [mln vehicles]

LCP's car current handling capacity may only be exceeded by 2029

Handling capacity


exceeded

CarFE

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Specific economic trends may result in higher or lower growth rates, resulting in different potential scenarios

LCP car throughput forecast, 2015 – 2050F [mln cars]

3.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

ProjectedPhase 1 & 2 & 3 capacityPhase 1 & 2capacity

4.9+20%

4.2

-20%

Source: PAT, Roland Berger

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Best case Base casePessimistic case

Car

Pessimistic case: -20%Slow down in Thai and ASEAN economicgrowthPolitical shift and shift of manufacturing hubto regional countries due to incentives & offerings

Shift in Thailand economy e.g., min. wage

Stagnant trade policies and agreements

1

2

34

Best case: +20%Thai and ASEAN economic growth is increasing driving demand for automotive

Growing foreign investment into automotiveand EV development in ThailandGovernment continuous effort to support foreign investors and automotive industryGrowing trade ties and resuming of freetrade agreements

1

2

3

43.2 m cars

2.2 m cars

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16

A wide variety of technologies can be integrated in the development of Phase 3

Optimized vessel stowage planning

Unmanned AGV1)

fleet

Automated vessel traffic control

Automated quay cranes with

optimized moves

Automatic yard planning and

storage system

Optimized rail load and discharge

processes

Advanced/interconnectedbuilding automation andpredictive maintenance

Automated RTG /RMG2) 3)

with predictive maintenance function

Truck platooning and data-driven logistics

planning

Warehouse automation and

planning

1) Automated-guided vehicle 2) Rubber-tired gantry 3) Rail-mounted gantry crane


Selected automation concepts Illustrative

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Automation selection factors [Non-exhaustive]VS.

The level of automation will depend on a multitude of factors and may vary over time as technologies become more common

Government policy

Operator experience

Competitors behavior

Availability of technology

Cost of technology

Terminal complexity

Terminal dimensions

Congestion

Automation level selection

Employment focus Productivity focus

Low investment / High costs operating costs

Commonly available Specialized technology

Low-tech competition High-tech competition

Limited experience Technology leader

Newly developed port Congested legacy port

Large space for storage Limited space and traffic

Limited complexity (1terminal, 1 mode)

High complexity (multiple terminals, multimodal

Number of berths 1 berth Multi-berth terminal

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Source: Roland Berger 18

STS crane AutomaticStackingCrane

Electronictruck gate

Lift frames

Transtainer

Lift AGV

Truck loading23containers

Remote controlled gantry crane willpromote a human-free movement ofcontainers from ship to shore and viceversa reducing personnel interactionand potential accidents.Containers coming into the port aremoved via remote controlled gantrycrane into the shore to await AGV pickup for storage.

1

Lift AGV is an autonomous vehicle designed for moving containers, promoting theseamless movement of containers from shoreline to container yard -simultaneously transferring containers to the ASC and maximizing containermovements.The lift AGV picks up containers discharged from the gantry crane and moves ittowards the container yard.

2

Lift frames promote the mobility and turn around activity for the AGV moving the container off the AGV onto the container yard to the ASC allowing the AGV to proceed to collect the next container efficiently.Approaching AGV carrying the container from the shore moves towards the lift frame. The lift frame then lifts the container on the AGV off allowing the AGV to move back to collect more containers.

3

Automatic Stacking Crane (ASC) promotes the ultra-efficient stacking and transfer ofcontainers delivered to the container yard via AGVs. The ASC picks up containersdischarged by the AGV and stacks them according to a pre-determined delivery andpick up schedule. As such, stacking and the movement of containers are seamless dueto the automation of the stacking activity.The ASC moves the container removed by the lift frame from the AGV and stacks thecontainer in a manner for easy retrieval.

4 6

Truck loading harnesses the ASC to identify and transport container from the container yard onto the truck that comesinto the port to collect the container. The ASC automatically identifies and moves the container from the yard onto thetruck without human intervention. This helps to promote fleet timing management for container collection reducing traffic.The ASC identifies and moves the container from the container yard onto the back of the incoming truck to be moved outof the port

5

Transtainer enables the movementof containers from the primer moveronto the train simultaneously.Multiple trains can be loaded via thetranstainer allowing efficient andtimely management of train.The transtainer moves thecontainer from the prime mover andstacks the container onto the rail ina manner for easy retrieval.

7

Electronic truck gate (e-Gate) allows for efficient allocation of trucks inthe terminal to minimize dwell time within the terminal for containercollection. The gate harnesses state-of-the-art-technologies which pairscontainer locations to trucks.The e-Gate scans truck license plates and matches it to specific locationsfor container pickup within the terminal.

1

3

2

4

5

6


7

Potential terminal automation concept for Laem Chabang Phase 3

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Wide range of automation concepts and technologies are being considered and adopted by leading terminal operators worldwide

Terminal automation case study: HHLACTA, Hamburg – Process illustrationBackground Illustration of processes

> Port of Hamburg handled the largest number ofcontainers transported by rail in Europe; Railshares ~45% of container traffic with 200 goodstrains/day

> To facilitate seamless container movement, cutting-edge systems are utilized:– HHLA adopts a TOS combining yard ops as

well as all rail and road traffic throughout the terminal with container handling and in optimizing their interplay

– Gantry cranes, operated by skilled drivers, load and discharge from/to the vessel

– The gantry trolley lowers it on to an AGV –which travels the fastest route to the yard

– The container yard is serviced by ASCs (RMGs) in parallel, and semi-auto control joysticks used for truck loading

– Semi-automated transtainer cranes supported by rail yard optimization software is used to load containers on/off train wagons

Source: HHLA, Hafen Hamburg, Roland Berger

HamburgFE

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1) Includes quay operations, container yard2) Includes warehouse, CFS, customs, parking area, office buildings

D2

D3

D1

Open storage area

Open storageMarine area

CFS

Car parking

service

Drainage pond

Coastalterminal

Miscellaneous facilities area2)

Port Gate

(Gate 5)

200 m200 m

500 m500 m135 m

1500 m

2000 m

920 m

Container terminal yard1)

Container terminal yard1)

Miscellaneous facilities area2)

Car terminal

Terminal componentsRail tracksRoad vehicle lanes Elevated roadsPhase 2 area

Phase 3 area Future rail tracksFuture road vehicle lanes

We are currently reviewing spatial development options for the container terminals and car terminal in Phase 3

Source: Roland Berger, TEAM

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Future

Currently ongoing review of spatial layout for the container terminal and Roll on Roll Off (Ro/Ro) terminal in Phase 3

Container Terminal (E1) Container Terminal (E2) Container Terminal (F1)

Container Terminal (F2) Ro-Ro Terminal (E0) Domestic Coastal Terminal

Service Berth

1 2 3

4 5 6

7

5

2

1 3

4 6

7

High level master Plan OverviewFE

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The development of Laem Chabang port phase III

Container terminals capacity are 7 million TEU/year and RO/RO terminal capacity is 1.0

million cars/year.

• 4 container terminals which are E1, E2, F3 and F2

• 1 Ro/Ro terminal (E0)

Transportation Network

• Increase rail handling capacity with implementation of the automation technologies

• Improvement The road network such as network for Access Means to Laem Chabang Port,

crossings between road and rail in port areas.

• 1 Domestic coastal terminal capacity 1 million TEU/year

Cargo handling system

• Automation technology will be introduced to improve service quality and safety with

energy efficiency as well as community and environmental


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Container Terminals

• Capacity : 7 million TEU/year

• E1 & E2 Terminal : Berth length 750 m

• F1 & F2 Terminal : Berth length 1,000 m

Roll on Roll Off (Ro/Ro) terminal

• Capacity : 1 million Cars/year

• Berth length 920 m

Domestic Coastal Port

• Capacity : 1 million TEU/year

• Berth length 500 m

• Depth 9 m.MSL

Service Berth

• Berth length 435 m for tug,

service boat etc.

Berthing Basin 920 m

High level master Plan Overview

Navigation Channel

• Two ways approach channel width 600 m

• Depth -18.5 m. MSL.

• Turning Basin 800 m.

E0 : RO-RO Terminal

E1 : Container Terminal

E2 : Container Terminal

Service Berth

Turning

Basin

Silt Pond

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Coastal Port

F2 : Container Terminal

F1 : Container Terminal

3

Project Background

เสนอาณาเขต 52 ตร.กม. ของ ทลฉ.

0

5

10

15

20

Capacity (M TEU/ Years)

11.1 718.1

Phase 1 and 2 Phase 3 Phase 1-3

• Development of Laem Chabang Port

Phase 1, 2 and 3 to increase containers

throughput capacity about 18.1 Million

TEUs/year.

• Increasing annual vehicle handling

capacity from 2 million to 3 million cars.


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Automated Container Yard

Rail way

Container Terminal : E1 & E2 Layout of 750 m.

E

1

The container terminal capacity in Laem Chabang Port Phase 3 approximately 7 million TEU/year with

berth length 3,500 m.

The throughput capacity of a container terminal for each berth, E1 and E2 about 1.5 million TEU/year,

totaling 3.0 million TEU/year.

Terminal land side width around 500 m.


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Container Terminal : F1 & F2 Layout of 1000 m.

Automated Container Yard

Rail way E

1

The throughput capacity of a container terminal for each berth, F1 and F2 about 2.0 million

TEU/year, totaling 4.0 million TEU/year.

Terminal land side width around 500 m.

Southern berthing basin of Phase 3 shall be allocated as terminal F1 and F2; of which berth

length is 1000 m.


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Ro-Ro Terminal : E0

The terminal throughput is designed at 1.0 million unit/year with 3 RO/RO ships berth.

Located at the bottom of basin where berth length is 920 m.

The Terminal landside width is 460 m with 15,000 ground parking unit.

E

1


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The capacity of domestic coastal terminal around 1.0 million TEU, berth length 500 m.

The design ship size : 300 TEU or 3,000 DWT.

Located outside the main navigation channel with its own channel so that coastal ship operations will

not interfere with operation of ship on international trades

The terminal landside width 200 m.

Domestic Coastal Terminal

E

1


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Dredging Area

Dredge material volume : 57 million

cubic meters

Land reclamation Area

37 million cubic meters

Silt Pond

20 million cubic meters is fine

material which shall be disposed

of at the silt pond

Dredging and Reclamation

Soil improvement for an

existing silt pond area.


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9

Today

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Tender Announcement

for PPP

PPP Feasibility Study

1/3/2018- 31/5/2018

Draft Final Design

1/3/2018- 31/5/2018

EHIA

1/1/2018- 31/5/8

Oct Nov Dec

PAT Approval

Proposals Preparation

3 Month

Market Sound #1

2/5/18

Market Sound #2

6/18

Market Sound #3

7/18

Selected Private

OperatorEECO

Approval

Mar Jan Feb Mar

Final Detailed Design

Attorney General Consider Draft Contact

The Winnerin Selecting Port Operator

Time Line

ergerThink:Act

Laem Chabang Phase 3 Market Sounding #1 · 4.3. 35.9. 8.0. 223. 237. 14. 26. Thailand is the 2 nd...

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Transcript of Laem Chabang Phase 3 Market Sounding #1 · 4.3. 35.9. 8.0. 223. 237. 14. 26. Thailand is the 2 nd...