Labour Force May 2013 Quarterly Detail

7/28/2019 Labour Force May 2013 Quarterly Detail

1/12

21 JUNE 2013

CONTRIBUTORS

Justin Fabo

Head of AustralianEconomics, Corporate

& Commercial

+61 2 8037 [email protected]

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS

ANZ RESEARCH

MINING AND BUSINESS SERVICES EMPLOYMENT REMAINS WEAK WHILERETAIL AND HOUSEHOLD SERVICES EMPLOYMENT STRENGTHENS

The ABS released its quarterly detailed labour force statistics for the three months to

May yesterday. Aggregate employment is estimated to have risen only slightly

over the latest three months and 1.1% over the year.

The key points of the release are summarised below and in Figures 1 to 8.

! Employment in goods producing industries fell by around 20K persons for thesecond consecutive quarter, with construction employment retracing some of the

gains over the six months to February. Mining employmentfell 2% over the threemonths to May and almost 6%, or 16K persons, over the year. Manufacturing

employment (8% of the total) continued to decline and was 1.7% lower over the

year to May.

! Goods distribution employment is estimated to have fallen by 17.5K persons butthis followed three quarters of very strong growth, with year-ended growth at a

robust 5%. Employment in wholesale trade unwound much of the suspiciously

large gain over the three months to February, and transport and related

employment also declined. Year-ended employment growth was, however, robust in

both industries. Retail trade employment jumped sharply over the latest three

months, with year-ended growth consistent with the pick-up in retail trade output.

! Business services employment stabilised over the three months to May after fallingover the prior three quarters. Over the year, business services employment declined

3%, with weakness broadly based. This weakness has followed a prolonged period of

strong growth and, in broad terms, presumably reflects a focus on costs and

efficiency among a wide range of businesses. Employment in some sectors that had

previously benefited from strong mining and related activity has also been adversely

affected.

! In contrast, employment in household services continued to expand strongly overthe latest three months; presumably this has been supported by relatively strong

population growth. Over the year to May, employment growth was particularly

strong in health, accommodation & food services and other services.

!Public administration employment is estimated to have risen strongly over thethree months to May and by around 4% over the year. This ongoing strength

continues to be at odds with sluggish growth in government spending.

! Agriculture employment is estimated to have fallen by almost 10% over the year toMay. While this might overstate the true weakness, it is consistent with challenging

conditions being faced by parts of the farming sector nearly all of the net job

losses were insheep, beef cattle and grain farming.

! Age-based figures show that labour market conditions for youths have remainedvery challenging. The participation rate among 15-24 year olds has fallen by

more since the GFC than it did following the early 1990s recession in

Australia (Figure 4);

! The number of unemployed made redundant remains elevated and has pickedup in NSW, WA and South Australia (Figures 5 & 6). More encouragingly, however,the share of full-time workers on reduced hours for economic reasons has

fallen in recent months, particularly in NSW (Figures 7 & 8).

The Appendix illustrates industry employment growth by state.


2/12

Australian Economic Update / 21 June 2013 / 2 of 12

FIGURE 1: CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, YEAR TO MAY 2013

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

TOTAL

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Public Administration and Safety

Wholesale Trade

Education and Training

Other Services

Construction

Arts and Recreation Services

Administrative and Support Services

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Financial and Insurance Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Mining

Manufacturing

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

'000 change in employment, year to May 2013 Source: ABS

FIGURE 2: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA MAY 2013

'000 '000 % '000 % %

Total goods 4,623 40 -39.1 -0.8 76.6 1.7 1.6

Goods production 2,350 20 -21.6 -0.9 -31.5 -1.3 1.6

Mining 261 2 -5.3 -2.0 -15.9 -5.8 9.1

Manufacturing 938 8 -3.9 -0.4 -16.0 -1.7 -0.9

Construction 1,004 9 -20.3 -2.0 8.5 0.9 2.9

Utilities 146 1 7.9 5.7 -8.0 -5.2 4.9

Goods distribution 2,273 20 -17.5 -0.8 108.0 5.1 1.6

Retail trade 1,257 11 34.3 2.8 47.1 3.9 0.5

Wholesale trade 431 4 -31.9 -6.9 26.8 6.6 1.7

Transport, postal & w arehousing 585 5 -19.9 -3.3 34.2 6.5 2.2

Total services 5,952 51 30.8 0.5 53.1 0.9 2.7Business services 2,146 18 4.9 0.2 -64.7 -3.0 2.3

Professional services 916 8 -4.0 -0.4 -14.8 -1.6 3.6

Finance & insurance 417 4 4.3 1.0 -10.5 -2.6 1.6

Information media & telco 216 2 -1.7 -0.8 -16.4 -6.9 -0.3

Rental, hiring & real estate services 197 2 -2.5 -1.3 -21.3 -9.8 2.9

Admin. & support serv ices 400 3 8.9 2.3 -1.6 -0.6 1.9

Household services 3,806 33 25.9 0.7 117.8 3.1 2.9

Accommodation & food services 807 7 5.1 0.6 39.0 4.9 2.2

Education & training 916 8 -9.2 -1.0 19.8 2.1 3.0

Healthcare & social assistance 1,403 12 7.2 0.5 42.0 3.2 4.1

Arts & recreation services 215 2 13.7 6.8 2.4 0.8 3.2

Other services 465 4 9.1 2.0 14.6 3.2 0.9

Agriculture 316 3 -5.0 -1.6 -33.7 -9.8 -2.5

Public admin & safeety 737 6 13.9 1.9 30.9 4.4 3.3

Sum of all industries 11,627 100 0.7 0.0 126.9 1.1 2.1

Employment (sa) Employment EmploymentAverage annual

growth since

2000

% of total

q/q change y/y change

Source: ABS


3/12


FIGURE 3: GOODS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SERVICES EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00010203040506070809101112130001020304050607080910111213

y/y%change

q/q%c

hange

Goods production employment Goods distribution employment

y/y % change (RHS)

q/q % change (LHS)

Source: ABS

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

000102030405 060708091011 121300010203 0405060708 0910111213

y/y%change

q/q%c

hange

Business services employment Household services employment

y/y % change (RHS)

q/q % change (LHS)

Source: ABS

FIGURE 4: 15-24 YEAR OLDS KEY LABOUR RATIOS

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Per

cent

(trend)

Percent(trend)

Participation rate (LHS) Unemployment rate (RHS) Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 5: REASONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Shareoftotalunemployedpersons

Involuntary job loser Volun tary job leaver Former worker Never worked Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 6: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED INVOLUNTARY

JOB LOSERS BY STATE

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

000s

000s

NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas ACT NT Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 7: FULL-TIME WORKERS ON REDUCED HOURS

FOR ECONOMIC REASONS

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Percent

Percentoffull-timeemployment,trend

Full-time workers on < 35 hours for economic reasons (trend, LHS)

Unemployment rate (RHS) Sources: ABS, ANZ


4/12


EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

MINING EMPLOYMENT WEAKENS

Mining employment fell by a sharp 6% over the year to May as companies cut costs andcancelled/delayed projects. Consistent with the more advanced stage of the mining investment cycle in WA

than in Queensland, mining employment in WA fell noticeably over the past year but has held up in Queensland

(Figure 9). Most other states and territories experienced weakness in mining employment over the year.

Interestingly, however, the ABS suggests that there was a sharp jump in Victoria over the six months to May

(but we wouldnt be surprised if some of this is unwound going forward).

By mining sub-sector, the weakness in employment has been pronounced in the extraction of minerals

except, unsurprisingly, for oil & gas which is benefitting from a sharp ramping up in activity (Figure 10).

Consistent with anecdotal evidence, employment in mining services and exploration is estimated to have

fallen sharply over the three months to May. Some of this weakness might be inherent data volatility, however,

with other mining employment estimated to have continued to increase strongly.

FIGURE 8: MINING EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Employedpersons(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland WA SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 9: MINING EMPLOYMENT BY SUBSECTOR

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

54

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0001 0203040506070809101112130001020304 050607080910111213

000sem

plo

yed,season

ally

adjusted

000semployed,seasonallyadjusted

Resources extract ion employment Other mining employment

Oil & gas extraction

Exploration

Metal ores

Coal

Non-metallic minerals

Other

Other mining support services

Sources: ABS, ANZ

EMPLOYMENT IN OTHER GOODS PRODUCING SECTORS ALSO REMAINED SUBDUED

Construction employment declined over the three months to May following two quarters of robust

growth. This employment profile has been consistent with that in construction building work done (Figure 10).

Over the year to May, construction employment was particularly weak in NSW, consistent with the weak

investment backdrop in NSW recently reflected in the national accounts (Figure 11).

Construction employment in the mining states of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and

Queensland remains elevated as a share of total employment (Figure 12). As mining investment begins to

decline in these states (at different times) constructions share of employment is likely to decline,

notwithstanding some pick up in employment related to the strengthening dwelling investment cycle.

FIGURE 10: CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

0

5

10

15

20

25

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

000s

$billions,realoutputperquarter

Private building work done (real, LHS) Public building work done (real, LHS)

Construction employment (RHS) Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 11: CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Em

plo

yedpers

on

s(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland WA SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ


5/12


Manufacturing employment has been weak across most states and territories in recent years, to

some extent due to the persistently high Australian dollar (Figure 13). Over the year to February,manufacturing employment fell by 1.7%, or 16K persons, but its share of total employment is still a high 8%.

Despite the headwinds faced by the manufacturing industry recently, the rate of decline in its share of total

employment has only picked up modestly (Figure 14).

Agriculture employment is estimated to have fallen by almost 10% over the year to May (Figure 15). While this

might partly reflect data volatility and overstate the true weakness, it is consistent with challenging conditions

being faced by parts of the farming sector nearly all of the net job losses over the year were insheep, beef

cattle and grain farming which has faced very challenging conditions.

FIGURE 12: CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT SHARE OF

TOTAL BY STATE

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 87 91 95 99 03 07 11

Con

struction's

sh

are

of

total

em

plo

ym

en

t,tren

dConstruction'sshareoftotalemployment,trend

Australia WA Queensland Victoria NSW SA NT Tasmania ACT

Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 13: MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Em

plo

yedpers

on

s(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 14: SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY,AUSTRALIA

FIGURE 15: AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT

60

65

70

75

80

0

5

10

15

20

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

PercentoftotalemploymentP

ercentoftotalemployment

Agriculture (LHS) Construction (LHS) Mining (LHS)

Manufacturing (LHS) Services (RHS) Sources: ABS, ANZ

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

000s,seasonallyadjusted

Agriculture employment Sources: ABS, ANZ

EMPLOYMENT IN GOODS DISTRIBUTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL BUT RETAIL EMPLOYMENT HAS PICKED UP

STRONGLY

Retail trade employment is estimated to have jumped sharply over the three months to May and over

the year. This is broadly consistent with the prior strengthening in retail trade output volumes (Figure 16). This

relationship, however, suggests that retail trade employment growth should be much more moderate in coming

quarters. Interestingly, most of the growth in retail employment over the year was supposedly in retail trade,

not further defined. By state, retail employment has clearly strengthened in NSW, South Australia and Western

Australia; the weakness in Queensland appears to be abating and the recent fall in the Australian dollar should

help support domestic retail output and employment going forward (Figure 17).


6/12


Stepping back, the decline in retail trades share of total employment in recent years, and its recent

stabilisation and small increase, has closely reflected changes in households spending and saving

behaviour (Figure 18).

FIGURE 16: RETAIL TRADE VS RETAIL SALES VOLUMES

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

y/y%ch

an

ge

Real retail sales, 12m forward (LHS) Retail trade employment (RHS)

y/y%c

hange

Sources: ABS

FIGURE 17: RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

8

16

24

32

40

0

100

200

300

400

500

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Em

plo

yedpers

on

s(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland SA

WA Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ

Employment in other goods distribution industries wholesale trade and transport, postal and

warehousing weakened over the three months to May. However, this followed a period of net jobs

growth in both industries (Figure 19).

FIGURE 18: HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATIO VS RETAIL

TRADE EMPLOYMENTS SHARE-5

0

5

10

15

2010.0

10.4

10.8

11.2

11.6

12.0

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Percent,inverted

Percentoftotalemployment

Retail trade - share of total employment (LHS) Household saving ratio, inverted (RHS) Sources: ABS

FIGURE 19: WHOLESALE TRADE AND TRANSPORT

EMPLOYMENT

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13


Wholesale trade employment Transport, postal & warehousing employment Sources: ABS, ANZ

Nevertheless, transport and related employment

has tracked broadly sideways since the GFC asdemand for goods (as opposed to services) has been

subdued (Figure 20).

While road transportemployment has picked up

strongly over the past year or so (possibly mining

related), it has been broadly unchanged in net terms

since 2008/09. Concurrently, employment inpostal &

courier services has declined noticeably despite clear

benefits from the rise of online shopping for this sector.

FIGURE 20: TRANSPORT, POSTAL & WAREHOUSING

EMPLOYMENT

0

50

100

150

200

250

00 00 01 02 02 03 04 04 05 06 06 07 08 08 09 10 10 11 12 12 13

Employedpersons,000s

Road transport Postal & courier services Warehousing & storage services Other Sources: ABS, ANZ


7/12


BUSINESS SERVICES EMPLOYMENT REMAINS WEAK

Total business services employment stabilised over the three months to May after falling over the prior three

quarters. Over the year, business services employment declined 3%, the largest percentagecontraction over a year since late 2001. Weakness has been broadly based across industries but particularly

pronounced in information media and telecommunications (-7% y/y) and rental, hiring & real estate services

(-10% y/y).

This weakness has followed a prolonged period of strong growth and, in broad terms, reflects a focus on costs

and efficiency among a wide range of businesses. Employment in some sectors that had previously

benefited from strong mining and related activity has also been adversely affected.

FIGURE 21: PROFESSIONAL SERVICES EMPLOYMENTOver the year to May, employment in professional,

scientific & technical services declined by around

1%. Employment in architectural, engineering &

technical services, which has benefited substantially

from the mining investment boom, continued to trend

higher over the past 6-12 months (although there was

a suspiciously sharp jump in Queensland in the latest

three months) (Figure 21).

Much of the weakness in rental, hiring & real estate

employment was (not surprisingly) concentrated in

property operators & real estate services over the year

to May.0

50

100

150

200

250

300

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

000s,seasonallyad

justed

Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services Legal and Accounting Services

Management and Related Consulting Services Computer System Design and Related ServicesOther

Sources: ABS, ANZ

HOUSEHOLD SERVICES EMPLOYMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG

Employment in overall household services continued to expand strongly over the latest three months. In part,this is likely to have been supported by the pick-up in Australias population growth. Over the year to May,

employment growth was particularly strong in healthcare, accommodation & food services and other

services. Employment growth in health and education has been much stronger than in all other industries

combined for an extended period (Figure 22).

Healthcare is the largest employing industry in Australia (12% of total jobs, or 1.4 million persons). Jobs

growth in this industry has average 4% per annum since 2000, around double total average annual employment

growth. Likewise, education employment has grown by 3% per annum, on average, over this period.

Despite the strong growth in overall healthcare employment, the ABS reports that hospitalemployment fell

sharply over the most recent six months (Figure 23). While this is likely to overstate the true weakness in jobs in

this sector, state government cutbacks have resulted in some hospital employees being made redundant. At the

same time, employment in child care and allied health services appears to have picked up.FIGURE 22: HEALTH & EDUCATION VS OTHER

INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

January2005=100

Education & training Health Care and Social Assistance Other industries Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 23: HEALTH EMPLOYMENT BY SUB-SECTOR

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13


Hospitals Medical ServicesPathology and Diagnostic Imaging Services Allied Health ServicesOther Health Care Services Residential Care ServicesSocial Assistance Services, nfd Child Care ServicesOther Social Assistance Services Total (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ


8/12


At the state level,health employment has been weak in

Queensland and Tasmania, likely due to government

cuts (Figure 24). In contrast, health employment has

recovered strongly in Victoria, continues to trend

strongly higher in NSW and has strengthened in South

Australia.

FIGURE 24: HEALTH EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

8

16

24

32

40

0

100

200

300

400

500

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Em

plo

yedpers

on

s(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland SA

WA Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ

Employment has also increased sharply in the accommodation & food services industry (7% of total

employment), particularly in NSW (Figures 25 & 26). Over the year to May, employment rose about 5% in this

industry. In South Australia, however, employment in this industry has fallen sharply over the past couple of

years, retracing prior strength.

FIGURE 25: ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICESEMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

12

24

36

48

60

72

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Em

plo

yedpers

ons(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland WA

SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 26: ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICESOUTPUT & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

y/y%c

hange

Hospitality output growth Hospitality employment growth (trend) Sources: ABS, ANZ

PUBLIC-SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IS SHOWING SURPRISING RESILIENCE

Public administration and safety employment was

estimated to have risen by 4.4%, or around 30Kpersons, over the year to May. This seems

inconsistent, however, with the relatively tightness in

government finances at the federal level and across

most states so might reflect statistical volatility to a

degree. It is true, however, that some of the reported

job cuts by state governments have been in other

public-sector industries, including health.

While remaining weak in Queensland, public

administration employment has reportedly bounced

back in NSW, Victoria and the NT following significant

prior weakness (Figure 27).

FIGURE 27: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION EMPLOYMENT BY

STATE

0

8

16

24

32

40

0

50

100

150

200

250

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Em

plo

yedperson

s(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland WA

ACT SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ


9/12


APPENDIX CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY STATE, YEAR TO MAY 2013

NSW

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

TOTAL


Retail Trade

Manufacturing



Other Services


Wholesale Trade






Mining




Construction


'000 change in employment over the year to May

Victoria

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40


TOTAL



Mining


Construction




Wholesale Trade



Other Services



Retail Trade



Manufacturing


Queensland

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25



TOTAL



Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Other Services


Mining





Manufacturing






South Australia

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20


TOTAL



Construction

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade




Other Services



Manufacturing



Mining





Western Australia

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

TOTAL

Construction


Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade










Other Services




Manufacturing

Mining


Tasmania

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

Manufacturing


Retail Trade

Other Services



Wholesale Trade



Mining



Construction





TOTAL





10/12


ACT

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

TOTAL

Construction







Retail Trade


Wholesale Trade


Manufacturing

Mining





Other Services



NT

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4



Construction





Manufacturing

TOTAL

Mining



Retail Trade


Other Services


Wholesale Trade






11/12


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Labour Force May 2013 Quarterly Detail

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