LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK - CIPD€¦ · Labour Market Outlook Winter 2019–20 Labour Market Outlook...

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OUTLOOKVIEWS FROM EMPLOYERS

LABOURMARKET

Winter 2019–20

The CIPD is the professional body for HR and people development. The not-for-profit organisation champions better work and working lives and has been setting the benchmark for excellence in people and organisation development for more than 100 years. It has more than 150,000 members across the world, provides thought leadership through independent research on the world of work, and offers professional training and accreditation for those working in HR and learning and development.

1

Labour Market Outlook Winter 2019–20

Contents 1 Foreword from the CIPD 2

2 Foreword from the Adecco Group UK and Ireland 3

3 Key points 4

4 Recruitment and redundancy outlook 5

5 Job vacancies 7

6 Pay outlook 13

7 Survey methodology 15

Report


2


1 Foreword from the CIPDMost employers are projecting a business-as-usual approach when it comes to recruitment and retention and pay expectations. This quarter’s net employment balance – which measures the difference between the proportion of employers who expect to increase staff levels and those who expect to decrease staff levels in the first quarter of 2020 – has fallen from +22 to +21 over the past three months (Figure 1). This is consistent with official labour market data, which show that employment has increased sharply in recent months. Meanwhile, median basic pay award expectations for the year ahead remain stuck at 2%.

In terms of employment, there is some variation across the sectors. On the upside, there has been a further improvement in employment intentions in the public sector over the next few months, which may reflect the public service spending manifesto commitments over the recent past. Employer optimism in the public sector, which is at its highest level for over a decade according to the survey data, contrasts sharply with the trend over the past decade. Public sector employment saw a fall of more than 300,000 people between September 2009 and September 2019 according to the latest official data, which has been mirrored by the LMO survey data. As a result, the public sector’s share of the workforce looks set to increase in line with the rest of the economy for the first time in over a decade. This should boost female employment prospects given the higher share of women employed by the public sector overall.

At the same time, there has been a clear deterioration in hiring intentions in some parts of the private sector over the next few months, especially in manufacturing. Nonetheless, taken together, these results make it more likely that the recent strong employment growth will continue in the first half of 2020.

Consistent with previous reports, the tightening labour market is making little difference to pay pressure, with median basic pay award expectations stuck at 2%. However, the mean basic pay expectations have risen to 3.1%, driven by expected increases of 3.5% in the private sector. Affordability remains the key factor behind the relatively sluggish growth in terms of median basic pay expectations, which is not surprising given the UK’s persistent weak productivity growth.

Gerwyn Davies, CIPD Senior Labour Market Analyst

Foreword from the CIPD

3

Labour Market Outlook Winter 2019–20Labour Market Outlook Winter 2019–20

2 Foreword from the Adecco Group UK and Ireland

After a politically unsettled 2019, the first Labour Market Outlook of this year looks back over a quarter in which a general election took place and Brexit became a certainty. Despite an unsettled climate, most employers project it will be business as usual in the first months of the year and overall employment confidence about Q1 of this year decreased just one point on the previous quarter, from +22 to +21.

Ongoing high employment rates are making it more difficult for businesses to fill roles, with 38% of organisations saying they have been prevented from filling a permanent role in the last 12 months and 30% finding it more difficult to fill vacancies during the same period. The good news is that they’re using a broad range of tactics to tackle recruitment challenges, including upskilling, apprenticeships, and hiring from more unconventional talent pools.

The most popular tactic to address recruitment challenges is to make greater efforts to hire from the local workforce (47%); and this is followed by widening recruitment efforts across the region or the UK (36%). 31% Thirty-one per cent are hiring people on temporary or fixed-term contracts to fill the gap, which may be part of a larger trend towards more flexible working relationships. It’s really positive to find so many businesses upskilling and cross-skilling their workforces at this time, with 24% of employers saying that they have increased training investment in existing employees to help offset hard-to-fill vacancies.

Another popular approach to tackling hard-to-fill vacancies is to hire more apprentices, which I am thrilled to see, being as I am a huge advocate of apprenticeships and the career opportunities which that they afford. 19% Nineteen per cent of all organisations, and 27% of large organisations, have offered more apprenticeships during the last 12 months. In what might appear as more of a trend in the post-Brexit climate, only 7% of employers

report hiring non-UK nationals and just 15% said they have tried to recruit from the EU. Interestingly, 13% of organisations are looking to hire more mature employees and 9% more parent returners. The likely future challenges of hiring internationally brings a positive focus to the UK workforce and specifically to more diverse talent sources, which is a promising start to 2020.

Alex Fleming, Country Head and President of Staffing and Solutions, the Adecco Group UK and Ireland

Foreword from the Adecco Group UK and Ireland

4


3 Key points

1 The net employment score – our measure of

employment confidence over the next quarter – has decreased from +22 to +21. The score is highest in healthcare (+28), construction (+27) and the voluntary sector (+23).

2 Among employers who currently have vacancies in their organisation, around two-thirds (64%) report that at least some of these vacancies are proving hard to fill.

3 The greatest volume of permanent roles employers have been unable to fill during the past 12 months is in professional occupations (53%), followed by associate professional and technical occupations (16%) and managers, directors and senior officials (11%). A very small share of employers say they have been unable to fill lower-skilled roles such as elementary occupations (2%), administrative and secretarial occupations (2%) and process, plant and machine operatives (3%).

4 Median basic pay expectations in the 12 months to December 2020 are 2%. The expected median basic pay settlement among private sector employers planning to have a pay review is 2% compared with 1.5% in the public sector.

5 Affordability (30%), public sector pay restraint (26%) and absorbing labour costs (21%), such as the National Living Wage, are reported to be the key factors inhibiting higher wage growth.

Net employment score

Hard to fill vacancies

Biggest inhibitors of wage growth

Median basic pay expectations

Permanent roles not filled

Professional

Associateand technical

Leadersand managers

Key points

2%PRIVATE

1.5%PUBLIC

64%

+22+21

Affordability

Absorbing labour costs

Public pay restraint

30%

11%

16%

53%

26%

21%

5


4 Recruitment and redundancy outlook

What is the short-term employment outlook?This section focuses on the recruitment and redundancy intentions of employers in the first quarter of 2020. The net employment balance is our measure of employment confidence. It is the difference between the number of employers that are seeking to increase headcount and the number seeking to decrease headcount in the coming quarter.

Consistent with official data, the score generated a positive score of +21, very similar to the +22 score in the autumn 2019 report. This is in line with a stable labour market and official data.

Figure 1: Breakdown of the net employment score over time

Dec

ompo

sitio

n of

net

em

ploy

men

t bal

ance

(sta

cked

bar

s)

Net

em

ploy

men

t bal

ance

(gre

y lin

e)

0

10

20

30

Sprin

g 2017

Summer

2017

Autum

n 2017

Wint

er 20

17

Sprin

g 2018

Summer

2018

Autum

n 2018

Wint

er 20

18

Sprin

g 2019

Summer

2019

Autum

n 2019

Wint

er 20

190

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers (n=1,024).

40

50

70

80

90

100

60

Don’t know

Increase total sta� level Maintain total sta� level

Quarter

Decrease total sta� level

Net employment score (right axis)

4

16

30

49

5

12

30

53

6

13

32

49

8

14

30

48

5

11

37

46

5

11

33

51

5

11

33

51

4

13

33

51

5

13

35

47 51

5

10

33

5

13

31

51

14

18 1816

2623 22

2022

18

22

51

5

10

33

21

How to interpret Figure 1The net employment balance is an indicator of employment confidence. It takes the difference between the proportion of employers who expect to increase staff levels and those who expect to decrease staff levels. Figure 1 contains the net employment balance over time to show how employment confidence has changed. It also shows what is responsible for this change, be it more firms increasing, decreasing, or maintaining staff levels.

Recruitment and redundancy outlook

6


Recruitment and redundancy outlook

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers (total n=1,024; private n=763; public n=185; voluntary n=76).

–25

–20

–10

–15

–5

15

20

0

Net

em

ploy

men

t bal

ance

5

10

25

30

35

Figure 2: Overall eect of increasing or decreasing sta over the next three months, by business sector

PublicVoluntary

2123

Summer

2014

Sprin

g 2014

Autum

n 2014

Wint

er 20

14

Sprin

g 2015

Summer

2015

Autum

n 2015

Wint

er 20

15

Sprin

g 2016

Summer

2016

Autum

n 2016

Wint

er 20

16

Sprin

g 2017

Summer

2017

Autum

n 2017

Wint

er 20

17

Sprin

g 2018

Summer

2018

Autum

n 2018

Wint

er 20

18

Sprin

g 2019

Summer

2019

Autum

n 2019

Wint

er 20

19

TotalPrivate

Quarter

Figure 3: Net employment score, by industry, previous and current quarter (%)

Public administrationand other public sector

Education

Finance and insurance

Police and armed forces

Autumn 2019

Base: all bases > 49. For breakdown of base sizes see Table 3.

Manufacturing

Primary and utilities

Wholesale, retail and real estate

Voluntary

Hotels, catering and restaurants/arts,entertainment and recreation

Business services (for example consultancy, law, PR, marketing,scientific and technical services)

Transport and storage

Construction

Industry Net employment score, previous and current quarter

Information and communication

Administrative and support serviceactivities and other service activities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0 10 20

28 30

27 38

20 55

257

23 24

20 23

22 29

6 22

20 28

3020

8 19

18 19

14 17

9 27

6 22

30 40 50 60

Winter 2019

Healthcare

7


Job vacancies

Looking in more detail across sectors, the public sector has improved greatly, recording a net employment balance of +21 compared with +14 in the autumn 2019 report. The net balance for the public sector is at its highest level for over a decade. This reflects the slowing rate of job losses and quickening rate of job creation in the public sector in recent months according to the latest official data. Employment growth is projected to be strong across all parts of the public sector, including the NHS (+26), education (+22), the police and the armed forces (+20) and public administration (+20).1 Employment prospects have also risen from +19 to +23 in the voluntary sector.

In terms of the private sector, the net employment score has fallen from +25 to +21 over the past three months. This includes a significant fall in the net balance for the manufacturing sector, albeit the score is still positive, from +22 in autumn 2019 to +6 in winter 2019–20. Overall, employment growth prospects are most buoyant in healthcare (+28), construction (+27) and the voluntary sector (+23).

5 Job vacanciesHard-to-fill vacanciesAgainst the backdrop of buoyant demand for labour, it is no surprise that many organisations are having difficulty filling vacancies. Among employers who currently have vacancies in their organisation, around two-thirds (64%) report that at least some of these vacancies are proving hard to fill, slightly lower than in the autumn 2019 (67%) and summer 2019 (67%) reports. The share of employers with recruitment difficulties is higher in the public sector (65%) and private sector (65%) than in the voluntary sector (53%). On average, organisations with hard-to-fill vacancies report that two in five (40%) of their total vacancies are proving hard to fill, which is broadly consistent with recent reports.

Prop

ortio

n of

LM

O e

mpl

oyer

s (w

ith v

acan

cies

)th

at c

urre

ntly

hav

e ha

rd-t

o-fil

l vac

anci

es

20

10

50

60

30

40

70

Figure 4: Proportion of organisations with current vacancies that have hard-to-fill vacancies (%)

61

6670 71

61

67 6764

0

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers with vacancies (n=1,024).

Quarter

Spring2018

Summer2018

Autumn2018

Winter2018

Spring2019

Summer2019

Autumn2019

Winter2019

80

1 Please note the categories have been modified slightly to reflect the public sector employment figures more accurately.

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Job vacancies

Almost four in ten (38%) employers reported that recruitment difficulties had left them unable to fill a vacancy for a permanent role during the previous 12 months. The share of organisations reporting this is much higher in the public sector (55%) than in the private (36%) or voluntary sector (26%).

Broa

d oc

cupa

tiona

l gro

ups

Figure 5: Roles not filled in the past 12 months due to recruitment di�culties, by broad occupational group (%)

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers prevented from filling a permanent role due to recruitment di�culties during the past 12 months (n=391)

% of roles not filled due to recruitment di�culties

53

16

11

Professional occupations

Managers, directors and senior o�cials

Associate professional and technical occupations

4Administrative and secretarial occupations

4

4

2

3

2

Skilled trades occupations

Caring, leisure and other service occupations

Sales and customer services occupations

Process, plant and machine operatives

Elementary occupations

Figure 5 illustrates how recruitment difficulties differ for each major occupational group. Employers report the greatest volume of permanent roles they have been unable to fill lies in professional occupations (53%), followed by associate professional and technical occupations (16%) and managers, directors and senior officials (11%). By comparison, relatively few employers have experienced hiring difficulties for low-skilled or unskilled roles. The most prevalent permanent roles employers have been unable to fill are in healthcare, engineering, teaching and IT.

Employers’ response to such difficulties has been to make greater efforts to recruit from the UK workforce. Almost half (47%) of organisations report making greater efforts to recruit from the local workforce compared with just over a third (36%) who have widened their search to the local region or across the UK. Around a third (31%) of employers have filled the gap by employing temporary workers or those on atypical employment contracts. Relatively few organisations have turned to migrant labour from overseas, including 15% of organisations who made efforts to recruit from within the EU and one in ten (10%) who looked outside the EU.

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Job vacancies

Empl

oyer

resp

onse

Figure 6: Actions taken to address inability to fill permanent roles (%)

47

36

31

15

11

10

5

3

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers prevented from filling a permanent role due to recruitment di�culties during the past 12 months (n=391).

We tried again/plan to try again, making greatere�orts to recruit from the local workforce

We tried again/plan to try again, switching oure�orts to recruiting non-UK nationals from the EU

We tried again/plan to try again, switching our e�ortsto recruiting non-UK nationals from non-EU countries

We tried again/plan to try again, making greatere�orts to recruit from the wider region or across the UK

We filled the gap by employing people on temporaryor atypical employment contracts (for example freelancers,

self-employed contracts, etc)

Other

We withdrew the vacancy

Don’t know

% of employers

What have organisations done to address recruitment difficulties in the last two years? The vast majority of organisations are currently taking steps to tackle recruitment difficulties. As Figure 7 illustrates, increasing investment in skills remains at the forefront of many organisations’ approaches to tackling recruitment difficulties. Around a quarter (24%) of employers say that they increased training investment to help offset hard-to-fill vacancies. Private sector organisations (25%) are significantly more likely than public sector organisations (16%) to be planning to upskill existing staff to address hard-to-fill vacancies. The second most popular employer response has been to hire more apprentices (19%), where again there is some variation across sectors. More than a quarter (27%) of large organisations have offered more apprenticeships compared with around one in ten (9%) of all employers, which suggests that the apprenticeship levy is acting as a catalyst for more activity among large organisations. Meanwhile, almost three in ten (29%) public sector employers report that they have offered more apprenticeships during the last two years. Additionally, other popular measures include improving the brand of the organisation (17%), introducing or improving a workforce planning strategy (16%) and improving employment conditions (15%). Only 7% of employers report hiring non-UK nationals, which is lower than the share of employers who say they have sought to hire more older workers (13%) and parent returners (9%).

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Job vacancies

Figure 7: Measures employers have adopted to improve recruitment and retention during the past two years (%)

24

19

17

16

15

13

12

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers (n=1,024).

10

9

8

7

7

3

32

8

Improved employment conditions (for example smallershare of workers on fixed-term or temporary contracts)

Made greater e�orts to recruit from disadvantaged groups(for example ex-o�enders, long-term unemployed)

None of these – we have not adopted any new measuresto improve recruitment and retention during the last two years

Increased training investment

Made greater e�orts to retain or recruit parent returners

Improved or introduced a workforce planning strategy

Made greater e�orts to retain and recruit EUnationals from overseas

Made greater e�orts to retain and recruit non-EUnationals from overseas

Made greater e�orts to retain or recruit older workers

Developed ties with a local school, college or university

Invested more in the brand of our organisation toattract a wider set of applicants

O�ered more apprenticeships

O�ered more work placement schemes/internships

Other (please specify)

Don’t know

How are recruitment pressures changing?Three in ten LMO employers (30%) report that it has become more difficult to fill vacancies at their organisation during the past 12 months. Almost half (59%) of establishments say there has not been any change, and just 5% report that it has become less difficult. The share of employers reporting rising recruitment pressures is highest in healthcare (41%), construction (41%) and public administration (38%).

11


Job vacancies

Response to recruitment and retention difficulties

Base: winter 2019–20 (public n=80; private n=237).

Figure 8: Proportion of employers raising starting salaries in response to recruitment diculties (%)

30

40

Prop

ortio

n of

em

ploy

ers

rais

ing

star

ting

sala

ries

20

10

0

60

70

5056 56

6662

59 59 60

23

43

2927

25

30

37

Summer 2018 Autumn 2018 Winter 2018 Spring 2019 Summer 2019 Autumn 2019 Winter 2019–20

Private Public

Just over half (51%) of organisations that have experienced increased difficulty filling vacancies during the past 12 months have increased starting salaries in response. Just over a quarter (26%) have done so for a majority of vacancies, and a similar proportion (25%) have done so for a minority of vacancies. Organisations in the private sector (60%) are much more likely to have increased starting salaries than those in the public (23%) and voluntary (42%) sectors.

Meanwhile, just three in ten LMO employers (30%) report that it has become more difficult to retain staff at their organisation over the past 12 months. Almost one in ten (8%) say it has become less difficult, while the majority say there has been no change (59%).

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Job vacancies

Among organisations that have experienced increased difficulty retaining staff over the past 12 months, just over half (58%) have increased salaries. Of those organisations that have responded by raising wages, a third (33%) have increased salaries for a majority of staff, while a quarter (25%) of establishments have raised wages for key staff only.

Employers in the private sector (65%) are much more likely than those in the public (45%) or voluntary (24%) sectors to have increased salaries for existing staff in response to heightened retention pressures.

Base: winter 2019–20 (public n=73; private n=191).

Figure 9: Proportion of employers raising salaries in response to retention diculties (%)

30

50

40

% o

f em

ploy

ers

with

rete

ntio

n di

cu

lties

20

10

0

70

80

60 6159

6260

65

70

65

3532

34 3330

41

45

Summer 2018 Autumn 2018 Winter 2018 Winter 2019–20Spring 2019 Summer 2019 Autumn 2019

Private Public

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Pay outlook

6 Pay outlookPay award intentions The planned median basic pay increase over the 12 months to December 2020 is 2%, which is consistent with previous reports. The survey has shown remarkable underlying consistency over time, with overall median pay increases around 2%. Basic pay growth expectations are higher in the private sector (2%) than in the public sector (1.5%). At the same time, mean basic pay expectations have risen to 3.1%, driven by expected increases of 3.5% in the private sector. The explanation behind the gap between the median and mean figures is that a small proportion of private sector employers expect to give very generous pay award increases in the 12 months to December 2020.

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers who report an expected increase, decrease or pay freeze in the next 12 months (total n=459; private n=324; public n=98; voluntary n=37).

Figure 10: Median expected average basic pay change with pay freeze included

Autum

n 2016

Wint

er 20

16

Sprin

g 2017

Summer

2017

Autum

n 2017

Wint

er 20

17

Wint

er 20

18

Sprin

g 2019

Summer

2019

Autum

n 2019

Wint

er 20

19–2

0

Sprin

g 2018

Summer

2018

Autum

n 2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

–0.5

2.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

1.5

Pred

icte

d an

nual

bas

ic p

ay a

war

ds (%

)

Public sector

Private sector

Voluntary sector

Overall net

Looking at the distribution of pay awards, more than four in ten (41%) employers anticipate a basic pay increase of 2–2.99% in the 12 months to December 2020, which is consistent with median basic pay expectations of 2%. Meanwhile, more than a quarter (28%) of employers expect awarding a basic pay increase of 3% or more, while 15% expect a pay freeze.

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45

5

40

30

10

15

20

25

35

Figure 11: Distribution of forward-looking basic pay settlements, winter 2019–20 (%)

1

–2.0–2

.99

–1.0–1.

99

–0.1–

–0.99

Pay fr

eeze

0.1–+0

.99

1.0–1.

99

2.0–2

.99

3.0–3

.994.0+

0

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers who report an expected increase, decrease or pay freeze in the next 12 months (n=459).

Bands of pay change

0

15

01

13 12

41

16

What are the factors behind employers’ basic pay decisions?We look in more detail at what employers who said they expect to pay more than 2% and those who said they expect to pay less than 2% or impose a pay freeze or pay cut said were the most important factors behind those decisions. Note that this analysis is confined just to those employers who said they could give a figure for expected changes in basic pay over the next 12 months.

Employers report that inflation (43%) and the movement in market rates (35%) are the key factors behind their ability to at least match the Bank of England inflation rate target of 2% in their basic pay award. Other key reasons include recruitment and retention pressures (29%), affordability (28%) and other labour costs (19%), which include the National Living Wage.

Reas

ons

behi

nd in

crea

se b

elow

2%

Figure 12: Top reasons for increase in average basic pay by 2% or more (%)

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers who expect their organisation’s basic pay will increase by 2% or more (n=319).

43

35

29

28

19

12

11

7

2

Inflation

Movement in market rates/the ‘going rate’ of pay rises elsewhere

Other labour costs, for example, theLiving Wage, the apprenticeship levy,

auto-enrolment pension scheme

Recruitment and retention issues

Organisation’s ability to pay more

The ‘ripple e�ect’ of higher starting salaries

Union/sta� pressures

Other

Don’t know% of employers

Pay outlook

15


At the other end of the scale, employers who said they would offer less than 2% or impose a pay freeze or cut showed little change in the factors they thought were most important. Affordability (30%), public sector pay restraint (26%) and absorbing labour costs (21%), such as the National Living Wage, are reported to be the key factors inhibiting higher wage growth.

Reas

ons

behi

nd in

crea

se a

bove

2%

Figure 13: Top reasons for increase in basic pay below 2%

Base: winter 2019–20, all employers who expect their organisation’s basic pay will increase by less than 2% (n=140).

30

26

21

20

12

12

11

6

4

To absorb labour costs, for example, auto-enrolment pensionscheme, the National Living Wage, apprenticeship levy

Restraint on public sector pay

Organisation’s inability to pay more

Movement in market rates/The ‘going rate’ of pay rises elsewhere

Uncertainty about future access to the EU market

Poor employee productivity and performance

We have no recruitment and retention issues

Other

Don’t know

% of employers

7 Survey methodologyAll figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. The total sample was 1,024 senior HR professionals and decision-makers in the UK. Fieldwork was undertaken between 3 and 24 December 2019. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of UK business by size, sector and industry.

WeightingRim weighting is applied using targets on size and sector drawn from the Business Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2018. The following tables contain unweighted counts.

Table 1: Breakdown of the sample, by number of employees in organisation

Employer size band Count

2–9 160

10–49 194

50–99 83

100–249 101

250–499 83

500–999 68

1,000 or more 335

Total 1,024

Survey methodology

Table 2: Breakdown of sample, by sector

Sector Count

Private sector 763

Public sector 185

Third/voluntary sector 76

Total 1,024

16


Survey methodology

Table 3: Breakdown of sample, by industry

Industry Count

Voluntary 76

Manufacturing 85

Construction 51

Primary and utilities 20

Education 112

Healthcare 79

Wholesale, retail and real estate 69

Transport and storage 30

Information and communication 49

Finance and insurance 113

Business services (eg consultancy, law, PR, marketing, scientific and technical services) 125

Hotels, catering and restaurants/Arts, entertainment and recreation 60

Administrative and support service activities and other service activities 90

Police and armed forces 5

Public administration and other public sector 60

Total 1,024

Table 4: Breakdown of sample, by region

Region Count

North-east of England 30

East Midlands 53

West Midlands 67

Scotland 49

London 178

South-west of England 66

East of England 50

Wales 41

South-east of England 148

North-west of England 74

Yorkshire and Humberside 53

Northern Ireland 12

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Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development151 The Broadway London SW19 1JQ United Kingdom T +44 (0)20 8612 6200 F +44 (0)20 8612 6201E [email protected] W cipd.co.ukIncorporated by Royal Charter Registered as a charity in England and Wales (1079797) Scotland (SC045154) and Ireland (20100827)

Issued: February 2020 Reference: 7987 © CIPD 2020

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK - CIPD€¦ · Labour Market Outlook Winter 2019–20 Labour Market Outlook...

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