Kip Kolesinskas, Consulting Conservation Scientist

September 2016

The colors on the map show temperature

changes over the past 22 years (1991-2012)

compared to the 1901-1960 average. (Figure

source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).

The Climate is already changing… 2015 was the hottest year on record globally, and temperatures from 2001 to 2012

were warmer than any previous decade in every region of the United States.

2014 was 0.01 C above that of the

next warmest year (2010) but by

much less than the margin of

uncertainty (0.05 C). Therefore it is

impossible to conclude which of

2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the

warmest year.

Northeast US

So What Does the FUTURE Hold ?

•Nationwide US •Extreme weather •Floods and droughts •High temperature stress •New pests and diseases •Less predictable weather

• Northeast US

• Adequate water

• Longer and warmer growing seasons

• Shifts in productivity elsewhere

• Potential to expand and diversify

• Markets – 24% U.S. population

• Job creation, economic growth

• Protection of ecosystem services

Growing Food - Challenges and Opportunities –

Goals for CT Producers Increased understanding of climate change impacts,

adaptation and/or mitigation strategies

Increased adoption of appropriate farm management practices by CT farmers to enhance climate change resilience

Increased understanding of challenges and opportunities for agriculture by consumers, policy makers and elected officials

Increased knowledge of Federal and State Programs and Risk Management and Crop Insurance Tools

Increase planning for climate extremes and emergencies

Shared learning to better understand impacts and develop solutions

Resilient, adaptive, economically successful agriculture in CT

How are CT Farmers using water? Home/personal use

Crop establishment and growth

Frost protection

Sanitation

Livestock drinking water

Livestock cooling water

Livestock production (aquaculture, ducks/geese)

Product processing, cooling, added value production

Agritourism, Ecotourism

Sources of Water

Precipitation

Groundwater

Ponds, lakes, swamps

Streams and rivers

Public water supplies

Catchment/runoff

Recycled

What are Farm water issues in a changing climate? Unpredictability of precipitation

Lack of soil water for crop growth and management

Insufficient sources and yield of ground and/or surface water

Poor water quality

Excessive runoff

Increased erosion, scour, leaching

Flooding and ponding

Changes in the season of flooding, ponding, wetness, dryness

Unpredictable precipitation

Higher groundwater levels

Lower groundwater levels

Competition for water resources

Lack of snow cover, excessive snow cover

Regulatory and allocation issues

Climate Change Impacts

“ Who gains and loses in the farming sector may depend on who can invest most heavily in response to changing climate conditions.”

Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions; Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, July 2007.

newenglandfoodpolicy.org

Climate Change Impacts

Climate on the Move: Changing Seasons in New England

• More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F

• Short periods of drought

• A longer growing season

• Increased heavy precipitation

• More overall precipitation, mostly in winter

• Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river flows

• Warmer winters with fewer chilling days

• Less predicable weather: frost dates, precipitation, dry periods

Key Climate Impacts

Increased heat stress

Crop yield/quality and livestock productivity suffer

Increased weed pest and disease

pressure

Earlier emergence and more over wintering

Key Climate Impacts

T o o much water Change in precipitation mainly due to “big” events

Key Climate Impacts

Short-term summer drought risk

Irrigation needs?

Competition for water?

Key Climate Impacts

Opportunities for Perennial Fruit Crops Less winter freeze damage

New varieties

More peaches, red wine

grapes?

Key Climate Impacts

Challenges for Perennial Fruit Crops Spring frost/freeze risk?

Key Climate Impacts

Longer Growing Seasons New Varieties

Double Cropping

More melons,

tomatoes,

peppers?

Key Climate Impacts

Agroecology & Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG)

Cool-season crops will be of lower yield or quality

Sweet corn

Reduced grain yield (rapid maturation and moisture)

Field corn, nutrient content…

Reduced vernalization lower some fruit yields; increased frost risk?

Apples

New pests are able to over-winter, emerge early; increased pesticides

Flea beetle, SWD?

Some warmer season crops will do better

Red wine grape, peaches, watermelon

Water stress in crops…

How does Climate Change Impact Crops?

Agroecology & Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG) How does climate change impact livestock?

livestock? Warming Temperatures

Livestock

• Heat stress in dairy cattle

Higher body temperatures

Increased respiration rates

Less activity

Increased water intake

Performance Dry matter intake down by 10-20%

Milk production down by 10-25%

Reproductive processes decrease

Highlights

Resistance

o Uses management actions to resist effects of climate change

Resilience o Proactive actions to increase adaptive capacity to moderate

effects Transformation

o Increase adaptive capacity by transitioning to a new system

The Spectrum of Agricultural Adaptation Strategies

Constraints to Farmer Adaptation

•Physical and ecological limits (e.g., when the magnitude and pace of climate change are beyond our capacity to adapt) •Technological limits (e.g., suitable varieties, or systems to protect from extreme weather risks not available) •Financial barriers (e.g., an individual farmer, region, or nation, lacks the capital for strategic adaptation) •Informational barriers (e.g., lack of weather and climate information, lack of Extension support for farmers, too much or misinformation) •Cognitive barriers (e.g., underestimates of risks of inaction; confused by uncertainties, statistics, models, scientific jargon) •Social and cultural barriers (e.g., the social, cultural group(s) one belongs to can limit adaptation response)

Air Quality

Increases in CO2 and Ozone: increased vigor and toxicity of vines, weeds and invasives, damage to some crops, cucurbits and tobacco, some yield increases for others

Adaptation: diversification, manage nutrients and water to reduce stress, better monitoring, IPM for new weeds

Insect, Disease, and Super Weeds

Increases in CO2, longer growing seasons, warmer weather, milder winters will bring more and new pests, disease pressure on crops and livestock

Adaptation: diversification, better monitoring, new IPM strategies, use of mulches, cover crops, rotations, sterilizing equipment, better biosecurity, rapid response plans

Temperature Less predictable weather patterns – impacts tillage,

planting, harvesting, worker and public tolerance Adaptation: diversification of crops/varieties, use of covers

and structures (high tunnels, fabric), change planting, harvesting dates, more storage, variable starting dates for CSA’s

Higher air / soil temperature – organic matter decomposes faster, crusting, new weeds and pests, worker and public tolerance Adaptation, crops: crop rotation, mulches, diversification,

use of shade and structures, shade for workers, customers Adaptation, livestock: barn ventilation, fans/soakers,

shade, more water, diet

Less predictable frost dates – crop loss Adaptation: diversification of crops, varieties, access to

irrigation and use of windmills

Precipitation High intensity rainfall events – erosion, leaching,

runoff, delayed planting and other field work

Adaptation: use of cover crops, surface mulch, reduced-ridge-zone tillage, raised beds, increase organic matter, use of grassed waterways, buffers, water capture systems, better nutrient and pesticide management

Increase heavy wet snows – delayed planting and field work, ponding and flooding in spring

Adaptation, crops: different varieties, diversification, delayed planting, use of diverse soil resources

Adaptation, infrastructure: reinforced buildings, gothic style high tunnels

Precipitation Less Predictable water – short term droughts to

excessive soil water Adaptation: increase organic matter, reduce tillage,

surface mulches, use of irrigation systems, more efficient water use, use of drainage systems, cisterns and storage reservoirs, reduced plant density, monitoring systems, localized weather stations

Higher evapotranspiration – less soil water Adaptation: reduce tillage, use of mulches, increase

organic matter, use of irrigation systems, change planting dates

Soil Landscapes Protect prime farmland soils, they are resilient and

resistant to impacts of climate change

Protect groundwater recharge areas

Protect wetlands and watercourses

Understand basic properties of the soils on your farm and in your community and manage accordingly

Capture extra ground and surface water

Understand stream and floodplain dynamics to reduce scour, deposition, and bank erosion on working lands

Keep soil covered as much as possible

Control Erosion

Protect Soil Aggregates

Suppresses Weeds

Conserves Moisture

Cools the Soil

Provides Habitat for Soil Organisms

David Lamm, “Soil Health Farming in the 21st Century: a

practical approach to improve Soil Health Planning

Principles”

Agroecology & Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG)

(Dabney, 1998)

Agroecology & Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG)

Reduced Tillage and Infiltration

No-, zone-, strip-, ridge-till, etc.

Less macro-fauna disturbance (i.e., earthworms)

(Source: Herbek, AGR-101; www2.ca.uky.edu) (Dan Brainard, msue.anr.msu.edu)

Agroecology & Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG)

Organic Matter and Infiltration

(Colla et al., 2000) Minutes

Cu

m.

Infi

ltra

tion

(m

3/m

2)

agnr.umd.edu/extension

Low O.M.

High O.M.

Nutrient Management Impacts

Climate Stressor

Nutrient Management Vulnerability and

Response

Increasing temperatures • Increased volatilization of N, leading to increased need for incorporation

• More rapid nitrification, leading to increased leaching and need to manage

Drought • Reduced nutrient use efficiency, leading to residual P and N in soil in winter

Extreme rainfall events • Increased runoff and nutrient/sediment transport • Manure storage structures potential overflow • Stressing of all BMPs linked to water cycle

Adapted from: Delaware Climate Change Impact Assessment: Ch. 7, Agriculture. 2014

Agroecology & Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG)

Drought Resilience

Crops can’t use water that doesn’t infiltrate

Organic matter

For every 1% increase in OM, another inch of water available (Emerson, 1995)

Avoiding compaction

Deep moisture

Increased storage

Increased conductivity

Role for moisture sensors

Drought and compaction prevention

(Courtesy USDA-NRCS)

Extreme precipitation- Infrastructure adaptation: use of woodchips in heavy use area

Rainwater harvesting/catchment with storage

Determine how much water you use…..

Water meter installed for UConn Farm Water Management Study

Extreme Heat and Humidity Adaptation: soakers, fans, high roof, shade in pastures, different breeds

Adaptation

High tunnel location

•Allows snow removal between tunnels

•Allows rotation, reduces pests/disease

• Placed on well drained soils reduces wet soil issues early/late season

Adaptation/Mitigation

Micro-irrigation

•Drought protection

•Frost protection

•Reduces some disease/pests

•Prevents erosion

•Can reduce fertilizer use

•Uses less water

Adaptation

Raised beds, cross slope

•Prevent waterlogged plants

•Prevent erosion

•Captures moisture

•Soil warms faster

•Can be covered with plastic/mulches

Adaptation

Pollinator and other beneficial insect habitat

•Alternative pollinators

•Host plants for beneficial organisms

Adaptation

Crops in high tunnels, greenhouses

•Extend growing season

•Allows alternative crops

•Reduced pests/disease

•Protects from extreme weather

•Efficient water use

Mitigation/Adaptation

Green manure & cover crops

•Organic Production

•Stores carbon

•Increase available water

•Prevent erosion

•Controls

•weeds/disease

Big Picture Adaptation/Mitigation Strategies

•Farmland Protection/ Better Land Use and Transportation Planning •Farm Production/Conservation Practices •Farm and Food System Infrastructure Planning •Water Resources Planning •Diversification of Agriculture •Support funding for Research, Extension and Technical Assistance •Farm Financial and Risk Management

•Build a diverse Regional and local food system

•Invest in renewable energy sources and conservation

Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation for Farmers and Gardeners

•Be proactive ! Plan for the future •Assess and manage for the risks •Diversify at a variety of scales and ways •Practice Adaptive Management •Utilize the tools, programs, information, expertise available •Understand, protect, and invest in your soil resources (build carbon) •Share what works (and doesn’t) with others

•Invest in renewable energy sources and conservation

Adaptation/Mitigation Strategies for Consumers

•Reduce food waste, recycle/compost •Buy less processed and packaged food •Eat seasonally, and be flexible and prepared for the variability •Eat locally/ regionally and ask for it from our institutions and businesses •Consume less meat

•Support agriculture/local food friendly regulations

•Support better land use and water resource planning, and planning that considers agriculture as a long term sustainable land use

•Invest in renewable energy sources and conservation

Resources USDA Northeast Climate Hub Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell CT Dept of Agriculture: Farm Transition Grants, Farmland

Preservation and Restoration Programs USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service:

Environmental Quality Incentives Program USDA Farm Service Agency: Disaster Insurance, Farm

Loans USDA Rural Development: Energy Programs UConn Cooperative Extension CT Ag Experiment Station Private Crop Insurance CT NOFA CT Farm Organizations & NGOs CT Resource Conservation and Development Area, Inc Your Peers!

Contact Information

Kip Kolesinskas

Consulting Conservation Scientist

kip.kolesinskas@gmail.com

860-878-0393