Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure

Reid EwingDept. of City and Metropolitan Planning

University of Utah

www.support.smartgrowthamerica.org/growing_cooler

Climate Change Is the Ultimate Green Issue

Chapter 3

Climate Change Impacts at 2 to 3°C

More than 1/3 of species at risk of extinction (corals, polar bears…)

Amazon rainforest & Great Lakes ecosystem at risk of collapse

Hundreds of millions displaced from coastal areas, at risk of hunger

Partial deglaciation of Greenland Ice Sheet expected to begin: sea level to increase 4-6 meters over centuries to millennia

Global Warming Fingerprints

Hurricanes Ophelia, Nate, and Maria were among 15 hurricanes that raged across the

Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and

Caribbean in 2005.

Global Warming Fingerprints

Global Warming Fingerprints

J. Madsen and E. Figdor, When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States, Environment America Research & Policy Center, December 2007.http://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/oy/ws/oywshWAwZy-EXPsabQKd4A/When-It-Rains-It-Pours----US---WEB.pdf

Energy Bill: CAFE & -10% Fuel GHG by 2025

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2005

= 1

00%

Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler .

CO2

2020 New 35 MPG

Fuel GHG:-10%

CO2 Target

1990

VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2005

= 1

00%

Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler .

CO2

2020 New 35 MPG

VMT

CO2 Target

1990

Fuel GHG:-10%

Chapter 4

Main Questions Addressed

1. What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the United States with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?

2. What reduction in CO2 emissions will accompany such a reduction in VMT?

3. What policy changes will be required to shift the dominant land development pattern from sprawl to compact development?

Portland vs. Raleigh

35% Less VMT with Compact Development

14.7

21.5 22.020.3

22.919.9

15.2

26.3

33.2

28.9 29.2

33.4

28.9

22.8

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

New Y

ork,

NY

Provid

ence

, RI

San F

ranc

isco,

CA

Honol

ulu, H

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Bosto

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Portla

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Dallas

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Southern Village (40% lower)

Answer to 1st Question

20-40% VMT Reduction for Each Increment of Compact

Development

Doing the Math through 2050

60-90% Compactx

67% New Developmentx

30% VMT Reduction=

12-18% Reduction in Metropolitan VMT

Add Smart Growth -15% VMT 2030 CO2 is 14% below 1990

40%50%60%

70%80%90%

100%

110%120%130%140%

150%160%170%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2005

= 1

00%

Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6, stock model calculations and sources cited in Growing Cooler .

CO2

VMT:-15%

CO2 Target

1990

2030 New 50 MPG

Fuel GHG:-20%

Chapter 8

What Would It Take?

What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2 reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels?

Will compact development with supportive transportation policies be enough?

If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved through pricing, and what price changes would be required?

Urban VMT Reduction

 

Elasticities of VMT with Respect to Policy Variables

Change in Annual Growth Rates of Policy Variables (% above/below Trend)

Effect on Annual VMT Growth Rate (% below Trend)

Population density –0.30 1 –7.7%Highway lane miles 0.55 –1 –11.4%Transit revenue miles –0.06 2.5 –4.6%Real fuel price –0.17 2.7 –14.4%

Compact Development+

Transit +

Road Pricing-

Highway Expansion=

38% VMT reduction by 2030

No Ballot Measure Can Be Considered Green If It

Includes a Lot of New Money for Highways

1995 Report on Induced Travel (with Minority View)

Short-Term Supply and Demand

Short-Term Increases in Traffic

New Trips

More Distant Destinations

Mode Shifts

Route Shifts*

* Most important effect according to Dowling et al., 1994

Long-Term Supply and Demand

Long-Term Increases in Traffic

Higher Car Ownership

Reduced Transit Service

Activity Location Shifts*

* Most important effect according to Cervero, 2002

Growth of Traffic Over Time

Cervero’s Bottom Lines

“…the preponderance of research suggests that induced-demand effects are significant, with an appreciable share of added capacity being absorbed by increases in traffic.”

“All that can be said with certainty is that induced-demand effects exist … and they accumulate over time.”

Average Elasticities

Facility-Specific Studies

Areawide Studies

Short-Term 0 0.4

Medium-Term 0.27 NA

Long-Term 0.63 0.73

No Transit Measure Can Be Considered Green Unless It Is Coupled with Transit-Oriented

Development

What is TOD?

TOD is widely defined as compact, mixed-use development near transit facilities with high-quality walking environments, not necessarily at the expense of automobile access.

More Than 100 TODs in USA

High Mode Shares for TOD Residents

Introducing the 3Ds

Density

33 Units per Acre (gross)

15 Units per Acre

Diversity

Seamless Pattern

Design

Simple Correlations with Design Variables

Pedestrian-Friendly Design

Pedestrian-Friendly Design

Effect of Density – Bay Area Rail

Effect of Diversity

Effect of Design