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Transcript of Key calls sept 2013
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
Key Calls across Asset Classes DB X-Trackers
October 2013
Houda Ennebati
+33 1 44 95 61 83
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Asset class performance YTD
DM equities have outperformed YTD. Sell-off in EM assets since May 22 has mostly reversed, except in FX
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Fund flows: sustained flows into Western Europe equity funds
Fund flows: Western Europe shines and outflows from EM equity funds gain pace (as of Sept. 27th)
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
DB Forecasts – Global economy is gaining momentum
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Despite the recent softness in some data…
Durable goods orders have disappointed
Consumer confidence fallen from 6Y high in July
Below expectation housing starts, building
permits
…the underlying momentum remain intact
Labor market continues to recover (weekly
jobless claims down to 2007 levels)
Corporate activity is strengthening (Q2 corporate
profits +3.9% vs. -1.3% in Q1)
We remain bullish on the medium term outlook and
see growth accelerating to +3% in H2 and 2014
Private sector deleveraging complete
Housing recovery to continue
Lower pace of fiscal tightenning
US – The underlying momentum remains intact and support our view of a sustained recovery
S&P 500 : we target year end level of 1750
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Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
US - Strategy implementation ….
US – Bullish Long Term
• Code D5BM GY
• TER 0.20%
• AuM 974 Mios €
• +0.01% Net outperf. (end July)
DB X-Trackers S&P 500
• Code XKSP GY
• TER 0.30%
• AuM 974 Mios € DB X-Trackers S&P 500 Euro Hedged
• Code XRU2 GY
• TER 0.45%
• AuM 457 Mios € DB X-Trackers Russell 2000
• Code XMUS GY
• TER 0.30%
• AuM 1564 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI USA
• Code XCUI1CE LX
• TER 0.50%
• AuM 680 Mios € DB Platinum CROCI US
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
The rebound from the Eurozone's longest recession on
record was stronger than expected
Q2 GDP growth of 0.3% vs. consensus of 0.1%
The Q2 recovery was broad-based across countries
Germany beat high expectations
France gained from consumption and exports
Italy and Spain are stabilizing
Portugal recorded a 1.1% jump in GDP
Expect a return to positive growth from Q2-Q3
Improving peripheral export performance
Inventory cycle is turning
Fiscal tightening has peaked
Supportive credit impulse2
Europe – Expected to emerge from recession in H2
Greater positive surprise potential in Europe than in the US – Stoxx 600 can reach 345
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Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Europe - Strategy implementation ….
Europe – Bullish long-term
• Code XESC GY/XESX GY
• TER 0.00%
• AuM 2 195 Mios €
• +0.34% Net outperf. (end July)
DB X-Trackers Eurostoxx 50
• Code XMEU GY
• TER 0.30%
• AuM 1 074 Mios €
• +0.02% Net outperf. (end July)
DB X-Trackers MSCI Europe
• Code XSX6 GY
• TER 0.20%
• AuM 525 Mios €
• +0.04% Net outperf. (end July)
DB X-Trackers Stoxx Europe 600
• Code XCREI1C LX
• TER 0.50%
• AuM 175 Mios €
• +3.65% outperf. vs Eurostoxx50 (end July)
DB Platinum CROCI Euro
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
We remain positive on Abenomics
Recent victory for Abe’s coalition in upper house
elections provide it with a majority in both houses
until at least 2016, thus a strong mandate for report
Government upgraded its GDP growth estimate for
Q2 2013 to +3.8% QoQ.
We see several drivers for the recovery
BoJ easing bias
Weaker yen leading to stronger earnings for
exporters
Improving sentiment
Consumption tax hike to 8% in April 2014 and to
10% in Oct. 2015 looking likely, hence rush demand
will lift domestic demand through Q1 2014
Japan – Return to growth story continues
Weaker Yen and Improving sentiment is set to drive the recovery
8
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Japan - Strategy implementation ….
Japan – BoJ easing bias, a weaker yen and improving sentiment is set to drive the recovery
• Code XMJP GY
• TER 0.50%
• AuM 900 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Japan
• Code XMK9 GY
• TER 0.60%
• AuM 900 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Japan Euro Hedged
• Code XMUJ LN
• TER 0.60%
• AuM 900 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Japan Dollar Hedged
• Code DCJI1CE LX
• TER 0.50%
• AuM 236 Mios €
DB Platinum CROCI Japan
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Emerging Markets – Fed’s non-taper helps Asia
EM Assets could remain in fashion for the rest of the year
Our US economists now expect no change in
Fed policy in October, with the first taper move now
likely in December
For Asia, this brings welcome respite, especially
for deficit economies (India, Indonesia) :
expectations that global liquidity will remain ample
and cheap for a longer period will make deficit
financing easier.
One worry : ongoing fiscal and monetary
adjustment to be delayed or postponed in some
countries. Inevitable rally in asset prices will bring
back the imbalances (stemming from
overconsumption, property price bubble, and
excessive credit growth) that had just begun to
correct in many parts of Asia.
Further upside to Asia may well stem from
Europe. Asia’s value-added of exports to EU is in
fact larger than to the US or China.
EM assets could remain in fashion for the rest of
the year
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Emerging Markets Asia - Strategy implementation ….
EM Assets could remain in fashion for the rest of the year
• Code XMEM GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 2 235 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Emerging Markets
• Code XMAS GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 687 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Emerging Asia
• Code XCS5 GY
• TER 0.75%
• AuM 34 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI India
• Code XNIF GY
• TER 0.85%
• AuM 145 Mios € DB X-Trackers S&P CNX Nifty (India)
• Code XMIN GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 75 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Indonesia
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
China macro data is showing signs of stability
July trade growth exceeded expectations on
recovering external demand
HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to above 50 in
August, confirming the recovery trend
Expect recent pick-up in growth momentum will continue,
driven by
Strong export momentum from recovery in US and
Eurozone
Faster real estate investment (given 30% yoy
increase in land sale in H1)
Recovery in corporate confidence driven by reforms
Chinese Communist Party congress meeting in November
should deliver further reforms to drive future growth and
support rebalancing efforts
China – Hard landing fears have eased on stronger domestic data and hopes of an export pick up driven by the US/EU recovery
Slowdown fears reduced on the back of improving recent data
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Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
China - Strategy implementation ….
China – Next reform meeting in November will be crucial for future growth and ongoing rebalancing efforts
• Code XCHA GY
• TER 0.50%
• AuM 582 Mios € DB X-Trackers CSI 300
• Code XX25 GY
• TER 0.60%
• AuM 177 Mios € DB X-Trackers FTSE China 25
• Code XCS6 GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 106 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI China
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Current account is in surplus
Equivalent to roughly 5% of GDP
Philippines gain from weak commodity prices, being a net
importer of oil, coal, food, etc
Forex reserves ate at 83 bns $
Equivalent to 12 months of imports of goods and services
Equivalent to 6x short term FX debt
Reserves also exceed total FX debt (public+private) of
about 60 bns $
Practically no state subsidies on oil, power, food, etc
Weak commodity prices have kept inflation benign (sub-
3%)
Public sector is in good shape
Fiscal deficit is running at 2% of GDP
Government debt to GDP is below 50% and falling
Its average debt maturity is close to 11 years – among
the longest in the world
Philippines – Fundamentals are stronger, both externally and domestically
Any correction could open up some Buy opportunities
14
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Philippines – Strategy implementation ….
Philippines – Fundamentals are stronger, both externally and domestically
• Code XPQP GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 45 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Philippines
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Growth prospects are improving
Favorable demographics
Expectations of a recovering global economy
Still high commodity prices
Investment in productive capacity
Improved macroeconomic management and increased
political stability
Strong public spending, especially on infrastructure
and services
FDI is increasing impressively
New discoveries and further exploration suggest the
promise of strong revenue flows and an opportunity
to create employment
Consumer demand has grown rapidly
Solid real income growth
Emerging urban middle class
Sub Saharan Africa – A bright spot
A decade of 5% real GDP growth, second only to Emerging Asia
16
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Sub Saharan Africa – Strategy implementation ….
Sub Saharan Africa – A decade of strong and sustained economic growth set to continue
• Code XMKA GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 13 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI EFM Africa Top 50
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Energy Sector – a pillar of the Mexican economy
More room for the private sector to participate to
government granted contracts
PEMEX to be fully transformed
Accountability and transparency to improve
Labor Market Reform
Deregulate labor market reducing the cost of hiring
and firing workers
Increase productivity
Fiscal Reform
Tax structure in the VAT system will rely less on
Pemex revenues
Streamlining of corporate income tax
Mexico – An ambitious agenda of policy upgrades
Ambitious reform program with the new administration
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Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Mexico – Strategy implementation ….
Mexico – Expect more GDP growth thanks to new government ‘s “Pacto por Mexico”
• Code D5BI GY
• TER 0.65%
• AuM 102 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Mexico
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Italian and Spanish yields have remained extremely
resilient; spreads are close to the levels seen before the
summer of 2011.
Data continues to surprise to the upside in the Euro-area
(Flash PMIs).
From a structural perspective peripheral markets are
clearly less vulnerable to external pressures due to the
significant de-risking by international investors as well as
the significant improvement in current account balances.
Therefore, even though peripheral yields might struggle
to decline in the wake of renewed issuance they could
still perform on a spread basis.
Potential for political upsets (particularly for Italy)
Still unconvincing fiscal consolidation results in Spain,
where the deficit target for 2013 could, once again, fail to
be met. Debt sustainability will continue to be regularly
questioned.
Greece will return to the headlines over the next quarter :
there is a funding gap in 2014-15 according to the IMF,
and this will need to be covered for the IMF to continue
disbursements, likely creating some tensions in the
upcoming Troika review.
Fixed Income – Looking for yield
Overcome underweight in Spanish & Italian sovereign bonds
20
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Fixed Income - Strategy implementation ….
Overcome underweight in Spanish & Italian sovereign bonds
•Code XY4P GY
•TER 0.15%
•AuM 833 Mios €
•Duration : 5.91 years
•Yield to Maturity : 3.86%
DB X-Trackers iBoxx Sovereigns Eurozone Yield Plus
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013
DB X-Trackers iBoxx Sovereigns Eurozone Yield Plus 1-3 Y
• Code XYP1 GY
• TER 0.15%
• AuM 176 Mios €
• Duration : 1.84 years
• Yield to Maturity : 1.92%
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Fixed Income - Strategy implementation ….
Overcome underweight in Spanish & Italian sovereign bonds
• Code X1ES GY - TER 0.15%
• AuM 18 Mios €
• Duration : 1.86 years
• Yield to Maturity : 2.07 %
DB X-Trackers iBoxx Spain 1-3 Y
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013
DB X-Trackers iBoxx Spain • Code XIES GY - TER 0.20%
• AuM 18 Mios €
• Duration : 5.35 years
• Yield to Maturity : 4.03 %
DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate
DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate 1-3 Y
DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate 3-5 Y
DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate BOT
DB X-Trackers MTS Italy BTP
• Code XITA IM - TER 0.20%
• AuM 72 Mios €
• Duration : 4.57 years
• Yield to Maturity : 4.04 %
• Code XI13 GY - TER 0.15%
• AuM 18 Mios €
• Duration : 1.59 years
• Yield to Maturity : 1.88 %
• Code XIT3 GY - TER 0.20%
• AuM 18 Mios €
• Duration : 3.0 years
• Yield to Maturity : 2.96 %
• Code XBOT IM - TER 0.20%
• AuM 173 Mios €
• Duration : 0.41 years
• Yield to Maturity : 0.83 %
• Code XBTP IM - TER 0.20%
• AuM 33 Mios €
• Duration : 5.72 years
• Yield to Maturity : 4.12 %
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Commodities – Energy & Metals – Global PMI strength will be constructive for the sector
23
Short and long term factors favor an investment in cyclical commodities
Commodities and production capabilities
are limited
Energy consumption increased by
60% in the past 25 years and is
expected to increase by an
additional 40% in the next 25 years
Fossil fuels exist only in limited
quantities and alternative
exploration of oil fields, such as
deep sea drilling are cost intensive
and only profitable when oil prices
are high
Limited production capabilities
Many commodity extraction sites
are aged
Political and geographical
challenges
Emerging Markets growth
China plans to build 82 new airports
by 2015 as part of the current Five
Year Plan
Stimulus and Infrastructure programs
e.g. EUR 1.4 billion are invested in
the modernisation of the German
railway(2)
Information and Entertainement technology
Copper is used in the production of
micro-processors and the key
component for products in the
communications and computer
technology industry(5
Increasing Demand Limited Supply
Participation to
rising prices
Investment
linked to real
goods
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Commodities – Energy & Metals - Crucial commodities in the industrial and infrastructure space
24
Forecasts are showing decent potential upside / Index + 4.40% est. at end 2013
Q3 2013 Q4 2013 est. % potential upside
Energy
Brent (bbl) – 16% in the index 105.00 107.00 + 1.9%
RBOS Gasoline (g) – 8% in the index 2.75 2.80 + 1.8%
Natural Gas (mmBtu) – 8% in the index 3.80 4.00 + 5.3%
Gasoil (t) – 8% in the index 895.00 915.00 + 2.2%
Metals
Aluminium (Usc/lb) – 17% in the index 88.5 93.0 + 5.1%
Copper (Usc/lb) – 17% in the index 335.8 344.8 + 2.7%
Zinc (Usc/lb) – 10% in the index 88.5 93.0 + 5.1%
Nickel (Usc/lb) – 10% in the index 657.9 748.6 + 13.8%
Lead (Usc/lb) – 6% in the index 97.5 99.8 + 2.3%
Source: Deutsche Bank, 13 Sept. 2013
Energy & Metals Index + 4.4% est. end 2013
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
Energy & Metals – Strategy implementation ….
UCITS Compliant Fund
• UCITS IV Compliant
• TER 0.71%
• AuM 15 Mios €
• Currency Hedged
DB Platinum Energy & Metals UCITS Fund
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013
The mentioned weights are rebalanced on a monthly basis to their base
weights. All nine commodities are replicated via standardised future
contracts, which have to be rolled.
Futures close to maturity are replaced by longer term maturity futures.
To select new futures, the index uses the DB Optimum Yield
methodology which aims to maximise gains and minimise losses that
occur in the process of rolling futures contracts. When a contract needs
to be rolled, the Optimum Yield methodology selects the relatively
cheapest future at that time (out of all available futures contracts with a
maximum maturity of 13 months).
The index additionally effects monthly FX transactions to hedge the
USD denominated commodities against currency changes relative to
the EUR, also on a monthly basis.
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
— Investors should note that the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors in each db X-trackers UCITS ETF should be prepared
and able to sustain losses of the capital invested up to a total loss.
— Investment in db X-trackers UCITS ETFs involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to the relevant index, credit risks on the provider
of index swaps utilised in the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs, exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, inflationary risks, liquidity risks and legal and regulatory risks.
— db X-trackers UCITS ETFs following a direct replication investment policy, may engage in securities lending. In these instances the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs face the
risk of the borrower not returning the securities lent by the db X-trackers UCITS ETF due to e.g. a default situation and the risk that collateral received by the db X-
trackers UCITS ETFs may be liquidated at a value lower than the value of the securities lent out by the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs. Despite the indemnity provided by
Deutsche Bank to the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs for such a situation, the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs and hence investors may suffer a loss.
— The db X-trackers UCITS ETFs use Deutsche Bank as the counterparty for OTC derivative transactions. In the event of a default under the terms of the OTC derivative
transaction by Deutsche Bank, the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs would be liquidated and investors could lose up to 10% of the NAV of the db X-trackers UCITS ETF. The
NAV at the time of default also may be considerably less than the amount an investor originally invested depending on the performance of the relevant underlying index.
You should therefore understand and evaluate the counterparty credit risk prior to making any investment.
— The value of an investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to the future.
— Not all db X-trackers UCITS ETFs may be suitable for all investors so please consult your financial advisor before you invest in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF
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fluctuations may have a negative effect on the returns of the fund.
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taxation can change. db X-trackers may trade in limited markets.
— db X-trackers may be unable to replicate precisely the performance of an index.
— Investors' income is not fixed and may fluctuate.
— The value of any investment involving exposure to foreign currencies can be affected by exchange rate movements.
— For further information regarding risk factors, please refer to the risk factors section of the listing particulars or full prospectus.
— An investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF tracking a leveraged or short index is intended for financially sophisticated investors who wish to take a very short term
view on the underlying index, e.g., for day trading purposes. Therefore the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs on leveraged or short indices are appropriate only for financially
sophisticated investors who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks. The db X-trackers UCITS ETFs on leveraged or short indices are not intended to be a buy
and hold investment.
— Investors should be aware that Deutsche Bank or its affiliates (“DB Affiliates”) may from time to time own interests in any db x-trackers UCITS ETF which may represent
a significant amount or proportion of the overall investor holdings in the relevant db x-trackers UCITS ETF. Investors should consider what possible impact such holdings,
or any disposal thereof, by DB Affiliates may have on them.
Investment risks relating to db X-trackers UCITS ETFs
26
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
(a) Emerging Market Risk: Investments in the market to which the Reference Index relates are currently exposed to risks pertaining to emerging
markets generally. These include risks brought about by investment ceiling limits where foreign investors are subject to certain holding limits and
constraints imposed on trading of listed securities where a registered foreign investor may only maintain a trading account with one licensed
securities company in the relevant market. These may contribute to the illiquidity of the relevant securities market, as well as create inflexibility
and uncertainty as to the trading environment.
(b) Legal Risk: The economies of most emerging markets are often substantially less developed than those of other geographic regions such as
the United States and Europe. The laws and regulations affecting these economies are also in a relatively early stage of development and are
not as well established as the laws and regulations of developed countries. Such countries’ securities laws and regulations may still be in their
development stages and not drafted in a very concise manner which may be subject to interpretation. In the event of a securities related dispute
involving a foreign party, the laws of these countries would typically apply (unless an applicable international treaty provides otherwise). The court
systems of these nations are not as transparent and effective as court systems in more developed countries or territories and there can be no
assurance of obtaining effective enforcement of rights through legal proceedings and generally the judgements of foreign courts are often not
recognised.
(c) Regulatory Risk: Foreign investment in emerging economies’ primary and secondary securities markets is often still relatively new and much
of the relevant securities laws may be ambiguous and/or have been developed to regulate direct investment by foreigners rather than portfolio
investment. Investors should note that because of a lack of precedent, securities market laws and the regulatory environment for primary and
secondary market investments by foreign investors can be in the early stages of development, and may, in some jurisdictions, remain untested.
The regulatory framework of the emerging economies’ primary and secondary securities markets is often in the development stage compared to
many of the world’s leading stock markets, and accordingly there may be a lower level of regulatory monitoring of the activities of the emerging
economies’ primary and secondary securities markets.
d) Foreign Exchange Risk: Some currencies of emerging markets are controlled. Investors should note the risks of limited liquidity in certain
foreign exchange markets.
(e) Trading Volumes and Volatility: Often emerging market stock exchanges are smaller and have lower trading volumes and shorter trading
hours than most OECD exchanges and the market capitalisations of listed companies are small compared to those on more developed
exchanges in developed markets. The listed equity securities of many companies on such exchanges are accordingly materially less liquid,
subject to greater dealer spreads and experience materially greater volatility than those of OECD countries. Many such exchanges have, in the
past, experienced substantial price volatility and no assurance can be given that such volatility will not occur in the future. The above factors could
negatively affect the Net Asset Value of the Sub-Fund
Risk factors Emerging Markets
27
Deutsche Asset
& Wealth Management
© 2013 Deutsche Bank AG
This document is only aimed at professional clients as defined by Directive 2004/39/EC (MIFID). This document is not destined for non
professional clients who do not have the experience, knowledge or competence needed to take their own investment decisions and correctly
evaluate the risks involved. The db x-trackers ETFs cited in this document received an authorisation for marketing in France from the Autorité des
Marchés Financiers. The Key Investor Information Document, full prospectus, articles and latest annual report are freely available upon request
from State Street Banque SA, the centralising agent of the relevant ETFs in France located at Immeuble Défense Plaza, 23/25, rue Delarivière-
Lefoullon, 92064 Paris-La-Défense Cedex, France
This presentation contains a short summary description of the above mentioned ETFs and is for discussion purposes only. A complete description
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Disclaimer
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