Kevin Smith (BAE Systems) Brian Spedding (QinetiQ)

UK Unclassified

UK Unclassified

© QinetiQ and BAE Systems 2004

21 ISMOR:The Use of Objective Analysis for the Prioritisation of UK Equipment Plan Options for TST

Kevin Smith (BAE Systems)Brian Spedding (QinetiQ)

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Presentation Structure

• Time Sensitive Targeting - the military task

• Analysis Challenge

• Assessment of Baseline military capability

• Assessment of Enhancement Options

• Critique of Approach

– strengths & weaknesses

– opportunities

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Time-Sensitive Targeting:the Military Task

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Time Sensitive Targets

Those targets requiring immediate response because they represent a

serious and imminent threat to friendly forces or are high payoff, fleeting targets

of opportunity

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TST Categories

Imminent Threat

High pay-off

Limited window of vulnerability

Limited window of opportunity

Enemy Forces in transit

Aircraft refuelling/rearming

TBM in launch position

Surface-Air defences

TBM operations

“Terrorist in a Taxi”

Aircraft on the ground

Helicopter FOB

HQs/command centres

Early Warning sites

Leadership targets

Target at range/endurance limit

Timely intelligence

Operational environment (weather)

TST Examples

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The Analysis Challenge

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Analysis Challenge

• “What” do DECs need to do in order to make TST work?– assess likely performance of possible Kill Chains and impact of

potential enhancements

• Facilitate objective, analysis-based TST Decision Conference– Analytic definition of TST

– Evaluation of UK baseline capability

– Enhancement Options many and varied (aircraft sensors, C2 support tools, new comms bearers .... etc)

– Assess impact of these Options in a consistent way

• Within resource & timescale constraints

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Assessment of Baseline Military Capability

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Baseline Capability Assessment- Overview of approach“Operational Analysis in a Systems Engineering framework”

Operational Requirement

System Definition

Evaluate System against Requirement

attack the target, in its environment, under constraints

end-to-end kill chain, comprising equipment and military process,

implemented as a functional chain

sensitivity analysis

day/night

threat (S-A & A-A)

tgt mobility

weatherCCD

urban environment

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Kill Chain Elements

C2 nodes

shooters

sensors

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Kill Chain Examples

Shallow Targets

– IPB: Nimrod R > ASTOR > Fast Jet

– IPB: Land EW > WatchKeeper > MLRS

– IPB: Formation recce > Attack Helicopter

Deep Targets

– IPB: Surveillance UAV > Fast Jets

– IPB: Overhead > RAPTOR > Fast Jet

– IPB: Special Forces > Fast Jet

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Level 1

Level 2Simple probability Analysis

Level 3Constructive Simulation

Level 4Synthetic Environments (NITEworks)

Level 5Trials / Warfighting Experiments

Kill Chain Evaluation - Analysis Levels

Level 1 - Preparation of a ‘capability map’ (traffic light analysis) using existing information

- basic performance data- SME opinion

Metrics: - Kill Chain element compliance - overall Kill Chain compliance - overall Kill Chain timeliness

Level 1

Full Compliance

Non-Compliance

Uncertain ComplianceFurther Analysis Required

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Search/Detect

Locate

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDI

Kill Chain Functions

Transit

Disseminate

Acquire

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Search/Detect

Locate

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDA

Assess

Search/Detect

Locate

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Assess AssessSearch/Detect

Locate

Identify

Nimrod-R Aircraft

Nimrod-R Gnd Stat

JFACHQ-JAOC-Intell

ASTOR Gnd Stat

ASTOR Aircraft

JFACHQ-JAOC- Combat Plans/Operations

Tornado GR4

Search/Detect

Acquire

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDI

Assess

Search/Detect

Locate

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan


Locate

Identify

Example Kill Chain - Simplified

Initial TargetDetection

Exploitation, tasking ofadditional information

Target Confirmation

Decision to attack;retasking of GR4

Attack sequence

Initial assessment of attack effectiveness

PossibleCommunication

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Detailed Kill Chain Definition

SENDING ACTIVITY INFORMATION EXCHANGE RECIEVING ACTIVITYSearch and Detect(NR) Sigint Assess (NR)IPB Charts & Maps (MC&G) Assess (NR)IPB Weather Forecast Assess (NR)IPB Background Environment (luminescence, sun angles, IR clutter, etc.) Assess (NR)IPB Current Intel on Changes in Threat Tactics, Systems & Weapon Performance Assess (NR)IPB Threat Position/Type Assess (NR)Background Unit Readiness Information Assess (NR)IPB Threat Weapon System Capabilities Assess (NR)Identify NR Sigint Assess ACC-A2BDI - GR4 Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) / Bomb Damage Indication (BDI) Information Assess ACC-A2Assess Astor Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) / Bomb Damage Indication (BDI) Information Assess ACC-A2BDI NR Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) / Bomb Damage Indication (BDI) Information Assess ACC-A2IPB Charts & Maps (MC&G) Assess ACC-A2IPB Weather Forecast Assess ACC-A2IPB Background Environment (luminescence, sun angles, IR clutter, etc.) Assess ACC-A2

Functional Definition

IERs - Kill Chain Delivered and Others External to Kill Chain

Decide (DIV HQ)

Locate (S/sayer)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Search & Detect

(S/sayer)

Plan/Re-plan

(DIV HQ)

Plan/Re-plan

(JFACC)

Plan/Re-plan

(WKGS)

Transit (WK)

Soothsayer DIV HQ JFACC WKGS WK

Identify/ Acquire (WK)

Assess (WKGS)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Decide (DIV HQ)

Plan/Re-plan

(MLRS Regt CP)

MLRS Bty

MLRS Regt CP

Effect/ Deny

(MLRS Bty)

BDI (WK)

Assess (WKGS)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Decide (MLRS

Regt CP)

Decide (DIV HQ)

Decide (DIV HQ)

Locate (S/sayer)Locate

(S/sayer)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Search & Detect

(S/sayer)

Search & Detect

(S/sayer)

Plan/Re-plan

(DIV HQ)

Plan/Re-plan

(DIV HQ)

Plan/Re-plan

(JFACC)

Plan/Re-plan

(JFACC)

Plan/Re-plan

(WKGS)

Plan/Re-plan

(WKGS)

Transit (WK)Transit (WK)

SoothsayerSoothsayer DIV HQDIV HQ JFACCJFACC WKGSWKGS WKWK



Assess (WKGS)Assess

(WKGS)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Decide (DIV HQ)

Decide (DIV HQ)

Plan/Re-plan

(MLRS Regt CP)

Plan/Re-plan

(MLRS Regt CP)

MLRS Bty

MLRS Bty

MLRS Regt CP

MLRS Regt CP

Effect/ Deny

(MLRS Bty)

Effect/ Deny

(MLRS Bty)

BDI (WK)BDI

(WK)

Assess (WKGS)Assess

(WKGS)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Assess (DIV HQ)

Decide (MLRS

Regt CP)

Decide (MLRS

Regt CP)

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Nodal PerformanceAnalysis

Time

Nodal ResourceAnalysis

TimeIdentify

Assess

DIV HQNimrodR

IPB

How long does it take for the KC to complete?

Overall Kill Chain time analysis including identification of critical path

T1

T2

T3

T4

Time for this part of the KC = T1+T2+Fn(T3,T4)

Information

Solution Analysis•KC delivered IER Analysis•IPB/Background delivered IER Analysis•IER Time Analysis

Kill Chain Analysis – Integration

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Search/Detect

Locate

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDA

Assess

Search/Detect

Locate

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan


Locate

Identify

Nimrod-R Aircraft

Nimrod-R Gnd Stat

JFACHQ-JAOC-Intell

ASTOR Gnd Stat

ASTOR Aircraft

JFACHQ-JAOC- Combat Plans/Operations

Tornado GR4

Search/Detect

Locate

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDI

Assess

Search/Detect

Locate

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan


Locate

Identify

Example KC Assessment

What do we need to do to make this part

work?


work?


work?PossibleCommunication

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Baseline Analysis outputs - by KC, by tgt

KC 1 Functional Time (%) Analysis - Use Case 1

Search and Detect

Locate

Identify

Disseminate

Assess

Decide

Plan/Replan

Transit

Acquire

Effect

BDI

Comms

Time Budgets & delays

Insight for ‘processre-engineering’

Functional deficiencies1

Search/Detect

Locate

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDA

Assess

Search/Detect

Locate

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan


Locate

Identify

Nimrod-RAircraft

Nimrod-RGnd Stat

JFACHQ-JAOC-Intell

ASTORGnd Stat

ASTORAircraft

JFACHQ-JAOC-CombatPlans/Operations

TornadoGR4

Search/Detect

Locate

Identify

Assess

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan

Effect/Deny

BDI

Assess

Search/Detect

Locate

Decide

Plan/Re-Plan


Locate

Identify

PossibleCommunication

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Assessment of Enhancement Options

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KC 5 - Vignette 1 Kill Chain B Version 1.4 UC00001 - Updated 03 June 2003.

16 AAB HQISTAR Co-ord

CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments

Green Text Timing - tbd. TST Processes - V1 KC B

Creator: M Ballone /P Wainwright

Based on: Range of data:

Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED

CONCEPTUAL PROCESS MODEL - 2006/8

DIV HQG3 Ops

Div Recce (UK) AH TGAvn Regt HQ

Note: For this KC many of the processes are shared betweenG2/ISTAR, G3 Ops and other cells/groups within the Div HQ.The distinction shown is only intended to ref lect who is likelyto lead the activ ity .

Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y

Disseminate(Create Tgt

Report)Assess

Assess (TST, CollatoralDamage, AGM, DALO)

Decide (Re-task StrikeAsset)

Plan / Replan (Deconf liction)

Decide (Finalise Plan)

Disseminate Plan Decide (Strike Mission)

Disseminate Taskingto AH TG

Plan / Replan (MissionRouting)

Decide (FinaliseMission)

Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate

DisseminateTarget Updates

BDI

Disseminate



CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate



CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

Analysis of Enhancement Options Embedded Option in appropriate node in relevant KCs

e.g. new effector sensor

Consider Savings Measures also - buy back

Re-evaluate node or link, and IER - compliance - time

Determine effect on overall Kill Chain

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CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

plus Option “X”



CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

Baseline

plus Option “Y”



CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

some within KC

improvementsSECONDARY

Effect on Overall Kill Chain

PRIORITY

KC now feasible,

leading to more

engagement opportunities



CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

Baseline

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Brigading Options - Synergy

Baseline Kill Chain Capability



CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

Brigaded Option

(A+B+C) KC 5 - Vignette 1 Kill Chain B Version 1.4 UC00001 - Updated 03 June 2003.

16 AAB HQISTAR Co-ordCellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03 , 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malvern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 OpsDiv Recce (UK) AH TGAvn Regt HQ

Note: For this KC many of the processes are shared betweenG2/ISTAR, G3 Ops and other cells/groups within the Div HQ.The distinction shown is only intended to reflect who is likely

to lead the activity.Search and Detect

Locate

Identify


Report)Assess

Assess (TST, CollateralDamage, AGM, DALO)


Plan / Replan (Deconfliction)






Transit to Target

Acquire

Effect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

KC 5 - Vignette 1 Kill Chain B Version 1.4 UC00001 - Updated 03 June 2003.16 AAB HQISTAR Co-ord

CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malvern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops

Div Recce (UK) AH TGAvn Regt HQNote: For this KC many of the processes are shared betweenG2/ISTAR, G3 Ops and other cells/groups within the Div HQ.The distinction shown is only intended to reflect who is likely


Locate

Identify


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Effect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

+

Option BKC 5 - Vignette 1 Kill Chain B Version 1.4 UC00001 - Updated 03 June 2003.

16 AAB HQISTAR Co-ordCell

LCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malvern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops

Div Recce (UK) AH TGAvn Regt HQNote: For this KC many of the processes are shared betweenG2/ISTAR, G3 Ops and other cells/groups within the Div HQ.The distinction shown is only intended to reflect who is likely


Locate

Identify


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Effect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

+

Option CKC 5 - Vignette 1 Kill Chain B Version 1.4 UC00001 - Updated 03 June 2003.


CellLCC HQ (US)

Notes/Comments




Created: 05/06/03, 10:37:43

QINETIQ Malv ern

Purpose of report:

UK RESTRICTED


DIV HQG3 Ops



Search and Detect

Locate

Identif y


Report)Assess









Transit to Target

Acquire

Ef f ect

BDI

Disseminate


BDI

Disseminate

Option A

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Interaction with the Decision Maker

Overall Rating

KC CapabilityΔT

Environment Threat level Target chars

Light Weather Environt Sensitivity

Mobility Depth Size

good cloud rain

weightings

weightings

For each option, or group of options:• score capability increments• Hi-Priority used to combine scores

Decision maker selects &manipulates weightings

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Critique of the Approach

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Strengths & Weaknesses of the Approach

STRENGTHS

• Highly transparent & traceable

• End-to-end assessment across multiple DECs

– Based on whole system-level analysis, not individual equipment

• Inherently scaleable - targets, Kill Chains, analysis fidelity

• Generates database of analytic results providing objective evidence

WEAKNESSES

• Limited to mission-level analysis of a single Kill Chain

• Limited to the functional Kill Chain boundary

– target detection to initial BDI assumed

– prior ISR operations equally important

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Critique - Opportunities

• Though branded ’TST’ this approach is equally applicable to other missions / targets– flexibility of capability chain methodology

• ‘Simple’ analysis highly valuable to focus detailed analysis & SE experimentation– e.g. NITEworks Kill Chain experiments

• Effective input into multi-mission and campaign analyses– multi-mission addressing resource conflicts with parallel Kill

Chains

– selection of effective Kill Chains at campaign level

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UK Unclassified


Any questions?Kevin [email protected]

Brian [email protected]

QinetiQ/KI/CIS/Pub042262

Kevin Smith (BAE Systems) Brian Spedding (QinetiQ)

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Transcript of Kevin Smith (BAE Systems) Brian Spedding (QinetiQ)