Source: The rational manager. Carles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe

published by Princeton Research Press, Princeton, New Jersey

Kepner Tregoe

Situation Appraisal

Identify Concerns Set Priority Next Steps PlanInvolvement

Threats & Opportunities

Separation & Clarification

concerns

Current Impact

Future Impact

Time Frame

(Urgency)

Highest Priority

Action needed

Help needed

1

Kepner Tregoe

Situation Appraisal

Identify Concerns Set Priority Next StepsActions

PlanInvolvement

Threats & Opportunities

Separation & Clarification concerns

Current Impact

Future Impact

Time Frame(Urgency)

Highest Priority

Determine analysis needed

Help needed

Concerns What do we mean by What is the current impact

on people safety, etc?

What will be the future

impact?

What is the deadline?

Do we need further

clarification

Who Does What When

Deviations What exactly is? Which concern is most serious?

Which concern is

getting worse

quicker?

When do we need to start?

Do we have a deviation? Is

cause unknown?

Do we need to know the cause of a deviation

What needs to be done and

when?

Decisions What else concerns us about?

Which concern will be the hardest to resolve later?

Do we need to make a choice?

Who needs to be involved for…Information?

Analysis?Creativity?

Plans What evidence do se have?

Do we have an action or plan

to protect (enhance)?

Commitment?Approval?

Implementation?Development?

Changes What different deviations, decisions,

or plans are part of this concern?

What do we need to do about the concern?

Who will document our process and

results?Opportunities What additional

analysis is needed

2

Kepner Tregoe Problem Analysis

Problem Analysis Identify Possible Causes Evaluate Possible CausesState Problem

Explanation Condition

Specify Problem

IS IS NOT Distinction Changes Possible Causes

Does not explain

Explains only if

Explanation

WhatWhereWhenExtent

3

Kepner Tregoe Problem Analysis

Problem Analysis Identify Possible Causes Evaluate Possible CausesState Problem Explanation To test against the facts Condition

What object(s) has the deviation

Use distinction and changes to overcome too few or too many possible causes

Test possible causes against the IS and IS NOT specification (to eliminate causes that do not make sense)

What tell us there is a deviation

Different, odd, special, uniqueChanged, when, cause deviation?

Determine most probable causeConfirm true case (assumptions-fix)

Specify Problem

IS IS NOT Distinction Changes Possible Causes

Does not explain

Explains only if

Explanation

What What object? What object(s) not have deviation?

What deviation?

Not observed deviations

WhereWhere geographically?Where on the object?WhenWhen first?When since?When in cycle?Extent How many

objects?Size?How many deviations?Trend?

4

Think Beyond the Fix (To prevent recurring problems and make the fix work properly)

Ask problem analysis questions to think beyond the fix Information gathered from the questions

Extend the Cause What other damage could this cause create?Where else could the cause create problems?What cause the case?

Extend the FixWhat identical things need the same fix?What problems could this fix cause?

5

Kepner TregoeDecision Analysis

Purpose Objectives RisksState Decision Objective 1

WeightObjective 2Weight

Objective 3Weight

Objective nWeight

Identify Adverse consequences

Alternatives Score Assess threats P /SAlternative 1Alternative 2

Alternative n

6

Decision Analysis

Purpose Objectives RisksClarify Purpose Determine weight, rank, or percentage Assess RisksState DecisionWhat is the purpose of this decision?What is the appropriate decision level?

Screen Musts/WantsHow does this alternative satisfy this objective?Eliminate alternatives that do not meet all MUST objectives

What results do we want?

What objectives need to be more specific?

What resources should we use or save?

What restrictions do we have?

Identify Adverse consequencesWhat are the implications of being close to a MUST limit?Where might information about this information be invalid? What are the implications?What could go wrong, short and long term if this alternative were chosen?

AlternativesGenerate AlternativesWhat choices do we have

Score If objective is mandatory, measurable, and realistic, it is a MUSTFor the other objectives what is relative importance of each WANT

Objective 1Weight

Objective 2Weight

Objective nWeight

Assess threatsHow likely is each adverse consequence? (P)What impact will this adverse consequence have? (S)

P /S

Alternative 1 M/WAlternative 2

Alternative n

7

Kepner Tregoe

Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis

Action

Potential Problems Probability/Seriousness Likely Causes Preventive Actions Contingent Actions Triggers

8

Kepner Tregoe

Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis

Action State the action What is the end result to be achieved What actions need to be taken to reach the end result? Which of these are critical?Write short, clear statements. Include action, result, and modifiers (time frame and cost for instance).

Potential Problems Probability/Seriousness

Likely Causes Preventive Actions Contingent Actions Triggers

What could go worse than expected?

H, M, L / H, M, L What could cause the potential problem to occur?

What can we do to prevent this likely cause from happening?

What will we do if these potential problems happen?

How will we know the potential problem has occurred?

What problems could this action cause?

What else could cause…?

What can we do to reduce the chances of this likely cause happening?

What will minimize the effects if the potential problem happens?

What will cause the contingent action to start?

How can we keep this likely cause from creating the potential problem?

What can we do to recover as quickly, cheaply, and effectively as possible?

Explain how each cause could create the potential problem

List many preventive actions -assign responsibility and resources for each

Select reasonable contingent actions for most likely, serious potential problems

Automatic and Non-automatic

9