Joseph K. Magochi

Eastern Africa Power PoolEthiopia

Prospects of Cross Border Trade to Secure Africa’s Energies Future

(EAPP)

Contents

� EAPP Profile

� Regional Trade Prospects� Regional Master Plan ( Generation Mix &

Interconnections)

� Cost Benefit analysis

� Regional Market Road Map

� Project Status & Achievements

� Challenges & Way Forward

Profile: African Power Pools

� EAPP�+ Libya, BRD, DRC

� Total Area� Approx 8,561,456 Km2

� Population� 385.5 Million Inhabitants (2008)

� Electrical Consumption� 128TWh (2008_NG)

� Exports/Imports 13.4 TWh

COMELEC

EAPP

CAPP

SAPP

WAPP

Source, EAPP –MP 2011, EIA 2008

Profile:Establishment

�Setup & Location�EAPP Setup in in Feb. 2005 after signing of MOU and Headquartered in Addis Ababa Ethiopia

�Initial 7 Countries, Tanzania Joined in 2010 and Libya in 2011

�In 2006, Adopted by COMESA as a special institution for Electrical Energy in the Region

�Mission�Secure power supply for the EAPP member countries @ the lowest possible cost

Location & Countries- Sep. 2011

Current Members

� Rwanda (2005)� Burundi (2005)� DRC(2005)� Tanzania(2010)� Kenya(2005)� Ethiopia(2005)� Sudan(2005)� Egypt(2005)� Libya(2011)

Potential Members

� Somalia

� Eritrea

� Djibouti

� Uganda� South Sudan

Profile: Member UtilitiesCOUNTRY UTILITIES

ACRONYMS

TYPE OF UTILITIES

1 Rwanda Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority/SINELAC

EWSA Public

2 Burundi Régie de Production et de Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricité/SINELAC

REGIDESO Public

3 Congo (DR) Société Nationale d’Electricité/SINELAC SNEL Public

4 Tanzania Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited TANESCO Public

5 Kenya Kenya Power KPLC Partial

6 Kenya Transmission Company KETRACO Public

7 Kenya Electricity Generation Company KENGEN Partial

8 Ethiopia Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EEPco Public

9 Sudan Ministry of Electricity & Dams MED Public

10 Egypt Egyptian Electric Holding Company EEHC Public

10 Libya General Electricity Company of Libya GECOL Public

� Three institutions constitute EAPP Governance each with Reporting Mechanisms to COM & SCM

� Permanent Secretariat

� Regional Market Operations Centre (RMOC)

� Regional Regulatory Commission (RRC)

� Based on providing credibility of the electricity market in the perception of - member states , Electricity Supply industries and external players (investors, financial Institutions, trading partners)

General Governance Structure

Profile: Governance Structure

Regional Trade Prospects

� Potential for Good generation mix in the region:

� Hydro in DRC, Ethiopia, Uganda Tanzania, etc

� Geothermal in Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, etc

� Gas in Tanzania, Rwanda, and etc.

� Wind in Kenya, Ethiopia etc:

� Coal in DRC, Tanzania:

� Interconnectivity & Mechanisms for Power Trade required.

Generation Mix

Existing Systems

� Existing Interconnections

� DRC, Burundi and Rwanda associated to Ruzizi II (45 MW)

� Cross-border electrification between Uganda and Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda

� Kenya – Uganda Interconnections

� Egypt Interconnection to Maghreb and Eastern Europe countries trough Libya and to Eastern Mediterranean trough Jordan

� Ethiopia-Sudan 220 KV:

� Ethiopia-Djibouti 283KM of 220 KV

� Ongoing interconnection projects

� Ethiopia-Kenya 500 KV HVDC:

� Ethiopia-Sudan Sudan-Egypt 500 HVDC:

� Kenya – Tanzania 400 KV / NELSAP

� Kenya-Uganda 220 KV / NELSAP:

� Uganda–Rwanda 220 KV /NELSAP:

� Rwanda-Burundi 220 KV / NELSAP:

� Burundi-DRC 220 KV / NELSAP:

� Rusumo Falls Project 80 MW:

Regional Master Plan

� EAPP Developed a Regional Master Plan (completed 2011) with an aim of analyzing all the data required to coordinate regional development for power trade. This included

�Generation Potential

�Transmission Potentials

� Interconnections

�Demand forecasting

� Full Master Plan Available at EAPP Website (http://www.eappool.org)

Regional Peak Demand Forecast

� Regional forecast shows most countries have surplus

�Members have different seasonal demand profiles. Ideal for power trade

Regional Demand Forecast (MW)

COUNTRY

Existing FUTURE TOTAL DEMAND SURPLUS

2012 2013-2030 2030 2030 2030

MW MW MW MW MW

Burundi 49 422 470 385 86

Djibouti 123 187 310 198 112

East DRC 74 1,117 1,191 179 1,012

Egypt 25,879 46,570 72,449 69,909 2,540

Ethiopia 2,179 13,617 15,796 8,464 7,332

Kenya 2,051 6,288 8,339 7,795 544

Rwanda 103 411 514 484 30

Sudan 3,951 11,310 15,261 11,054 4,207

Tanzania 1,205 4,881 6,086 3,770 2,316

Uganda 822 2,531 3,353 1,898 1,455

TOTAL 36,436 87,334 123,769 104,136 19,633

Regional Demand Forecast (GWh)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Ge

ne

rati

on

(G

Wh

)

Burundi Djibouti DRC East Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda

Regional Master Plan: Scenarios & Benefits

�Master Plan analyzed four scenarios� Sensitivity analysis applied to NGP-RIP and RGP-RIP

� Sensitivity 1: Only one DC line between Sudan & Egypt

� Sensitivity 2: Interconnection cost becomes double.

�Interconnection projects feasible under both scenarios.

Regional Plan – Benefit Cost Analysis

�One purpose of regional plans: Improve benefits and reduce costs in the regional system

�Regional generation and interconnection plan expected to yield highest Net Benefits.

�Gross Benefits = Savings in Generation costs (Investments and O&M)

Regional Plan – Benefit Cost Analysis

Critical Regional Generation Projects

�Eastern DRC�Ruzizi III, 145, H (2024)�Ruzizi IV, 287,H (2027)

�Ethiopia�Mandaya, 2000,H (2031)�Gibe III,1870,H (2013)�Gibe IV,H,1468 (2016)�Karodobi,H,1600 (2036)

�Rwanda�Kivu I, M,100 (2013)�Kivu II,M,200 (2033)

�Tanzania �Stieglers Gorge(I,I,II),1200 H,20/23/26)

�Uganda�Karuma,H,700 (2016)�Ayago,H,550(2023)�Murchison Falls,H,750(2032)

Critical Regional Interconnection Projects

�Ethiopia-Kenya(2000MW, 500KV-DC,2016)

��KenyaKenya-- TanzaniaTanzania(1520MW, 400KV, 2015)(1520MW, 400KV, 2015)

��EthiopiaEthiopia--SudanSudan(1600x2 MW, 500KV(1600x2 MW, 500KV--2016)2016)

�� Sudan Sudan --EgyptEgypt(2000MW, 600KV(2000MW, 600KV--DC,2016]DC,2016]

�� Rusumo Falls InterconnectionsRusumo Falls Interconnections

RPSMP&GCS 13 SCM -21

EAPP Interconnections

Regional coordination

EAPP

Target transmission system 2038

Regional Market Road MapPreliminary

StageStage #1

2013

Stage #2

2016/7

Stage #32021

MarketCurrent.

Country to country

Mostly between neighbouring

countries

Between any pair of countries

Fully trading environment

Previous arrangements

• Prev. arrangements • Bilateral Market [BTA]• Balancing Mech.

• Prev. arrangements • Bilateral Market [BTA]• Spot Market• Balancing Mech.

Liquid MarketTransactions

Market Participants

Single buyer in each country

• Single buyers• IPPs & eventually

Multipsellers- buyers (in unbundled countries)

• Multipsellers-buyers& eventually

• Single buyers

• Single buyers& eventaully

• Multipsellers- buyers

RR With few functions

RR evolves to fully established one, by the end of Stage #1

RR fully established

RR fully established

Regional Regulator

By the countries taking into account

future regional developments

• Regional Indicative Planning

• Countries encouraged to take into account in their MPs the regional planning

Same asStage #1

• Regional Indicative Planning

• Private Investors & utilities more interested in identified projects

Regional Planning

What EAPP is doing..

�EAPP is currently implementing four projects in the preliminary stage namely;� Technical assistance and capacity building to contribute the improvement of the integration of electricity market of the Eastern Africa countries, funded by the European Commission (ending March 2012)

�Master plan and Grid code study, funded by AfDB (completed)

� Technical assistance for operationalization of RMOC and RRC, funded by MFA- Norway and

� Powering progress project by USAID East Africa ( trading structures)

On-Going Components

� Harmonization of Transmission Standards (Grid Code)

� Installation and operationalization of the Communications Infrastructure/Database systems

� Development of Trading Instruments & Setup of RMOC and RCC

� Trainings & Study Tours

� Facilitation for Completion of Interconnectors within the region

�Mobilizing resources for Power Projects in the Region

Challenges so far

�Some Issues & Challenges

�Delay in the physical infrastructure development needs to be overcome-Capital Mobilization is a key Issue

� Countries that have not joined are needed for their inputs and cooperation to have agreed position and approach

�Harmonization of transmission standards is required to expand trade

Challenges so far

�Some Issues & Challenges

�Cooperation from development partners, and participation of private and public utilities required to realize master plan.

�Progressing capacity Building until commencement of power market

�Support for implementation of the master plan

Way Forward

�What is Required? �Complete implementation of the Master Plan

�Filling the Gaps on ability to trade in Each Countries Interconnections & Dispatch Centers

�Full Establishment of the Regional Market Operations Centre

�Coordination Systems & Infrastructure setup

�Full Establishment of an Independent Regulatory board (IRB)

eapp@eappool.org

http://www.eappool.org