Jornadas sobre transición energética, recursos no...

Mendoza - Argentina – 13-14 March 2019

Christophe Bonnery, IAEE President Economic and Prospective Director, Enedis

Jornadas sobre transición energética,recursos no convencionales,descarbonización y eficiencia

Overview of IAEE

Network infrastructure and distributed generation for the transition

@IA4EE @Ch_Bonnery

IAEE Objectives

IAEE facilitates: Worldwide information flow and exchange of

ideas on energy issues

High quality research

Development and education of students and energy professionals

IAEE accomplishes its mission through: Providing leading edge publications and electronic

media

Organizing international and regional conferences

Building networks of energy concerned professionals

Utilities of the future: Network infrastructure and distributed generation for the transition | @Ch_Bonnery | Mendoza | 13-14 March 2019 | 2

Membership 2018

3,700+Members

110Countries

Represented

31InternationalAffiliates

3,700+ Members in Over 110 Countries1,900 Europe

750 North America

1050 Asia, Africa, Latin America & Middle East

31 International AffiliatesLargest Affiliates: United States, France, UK, Italy, Sweden, Germany and Nigeria


Some Conferences

7th IAEE Asia-Oceania Conference

Auckland, New Zealand February 9-12, 2020

16th IAEE European Conference

Ljubljana, SloveniaAugust 25-28, 2019

Energy Challenges for the next Decade

42nd IAEE International Conference

Montreal, CanadaMay 29- Jun. 1, 2019

Local Energy, Global Markets

7th IAEE Latin American Conference

Buenos Aires, ArgentinaMar. 10-12, 2019

Decarbonization, Efficiency and Affordability: New Energy Markets in Latin America

37th IAEE North American Conference

Denver, USANovember 3-6, 2019

Energy Transitions in the 21st Century


4th Eurasian IAEE Conference

Astana, KazakhstanOct.17- Oct.19, 2019Energy Resources of the Caspian and Central Asia

Publications

The Energy Journal

An influential source for Energy Economics articles:

Impact Factor (2017): 2.132

5 Year Impact Factor (2017): 2.675

Article Influence Score: 1.4

The Energy Journal continues to place in the top quartile ranked against peer-reviewed publications for Economics titles, according to the Clarivate Journal Citation Report, Science Edition.

6 regular issues published annually, plus special issues

18% jump in “very frequent” readership of the Energy Journal as indicated by the 2018 IAEE membership survey, as compared to the 2015 survey.


Publications

Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy

IAEE’s policy oriented publication

Scholarly and research-based

Easy to read and accessible

A rising source of scholarly and research-basedcontent

Impact Factor (2017): 1.639

5 Year impact factor: 2.088

8% jump in “very frequent” readership of EEEP as indicated by the 2018 IAEE membership survey, as compared to the 2015 survey.


Publications

IAEE Energy Forum

Thematically focused content, recent topics include:

LNG

Electricity Markets

Impact of Drop in Oil Prices

Energy Efficiency

Energy Poverty

Special issues highlight content from IAEEcornerstone conferences

Carries affiliate and chapter events and activities.






@IA4EE @Ch_Bonnery

Enedis, the essential grid of the French electricity system

| 9Utilities of the future: Network infrastructure and distributed generation for the transition | @Ch_Bonnery | Mendoza | 13-14 March 2019

Enedis public utility missions

Electricity distribution in France

The public electricity distribution grid belongs to the local communities

They entrust their maintenance and development to Enedis

Enedis is the main manager of the French distribution grid, covering 95% of the country

Meteringconsumption for all

the energysuppliers

Running and modernising the grid

Supporting local communityprojects

Operating and remotecontrolling the grid by means of 31 control towers (local monitoring agencies)

Ensuringtroubleshooting on

a 24/7 basis

Connectingcustomers to

the grid


Enedis in a nutshell

€ 13, 845 bn revenue in2016

€ 3, 461 bn investments in 2016 (7% average annual growth since 2008)

36 million customers

Interventions 24 hours a day

38 507 employees

359 053 generation facilitiesconnected to the distribution grid in France






@IA4EE @Ch_Bonnery

Utilities of the future depend on what the future will be. Still a lot of uncertainties…

World primary energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario

Source: World Energy Outlook 2018


2000

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2001

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2002

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2003

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2004

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2005

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2006

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

China

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2007

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

China

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2008

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

China

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2009

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2010

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2011

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2012

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2013

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2014

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2015

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2016

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2017

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2018

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2019

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2020

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

What is certain:The world has changed … and is still changing

Energy demand

In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia.

2021

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2022

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2023

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2024

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2025

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2026

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2027

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2028

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2029

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2030

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2031

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2032

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2033

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2034

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2035

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2036

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2037

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2038

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2039

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2040

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

Africa

European Union

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2040

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

Africa

European Union

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.


Utilities of the future: Infrastructure of transmission and distributed generation for the transition | #7ELAEE @Ch_Bonnery | Paris | 10-12 March 2019 | 14Utilities of the future: Network infrastructure and distributed generation for the transition | @Ch_Bonnery | Mendoza | 13-14 March 2019 | 14

What is certain : Overall energy demand will remain very strong due to population growth and economic development


Economic growth in Argentina still need to be decarbonized

CO2 emissions per capita

Despite CO2 masterd economic framework, population economic development naturally leads to emissions increase

Total final consomption

CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (PPP)


The tools to adapt energy policies: the traditional pillars of a sustainable energy policy

Security of supply

Environment

AffordabilityCost of electricity, …

Changes of fossil fuel purchasing cost / selling prices

Dependence on imports

Matching demand

Local Impacts

Climate Change

Developing an industry

National Market

Global Market


The history of countries shows that energy efficiency is improving...


... and each country has different targets or capacities to improve its energy efficiency


Electricity demand and technical potential for electricity demand in the Future is Electric and New Policies scenarios

Electricity demand in the Future is Electric Scenario is about 7 000 TWh higher than in the New Policies Scenario by 2040, but is still far from the technical potential


NPS = New Policies Scenario; FiES = Future is Electric Scenario; TFC = total final consumption. Tech. refers to the electricity demand where electrification is pushed to its maximum technical potential as assessed by IEA analysis.

Source : WEO2018

Energy transitions?Highly differentiated situations in Europe and in the world

In Europe, the common objectives to combat greenhouse gas emissions mask very contrasting realities of energy transition: Germany abandons nuclear power The United Kingdom returns with Hinkley Point Poland would like to join France organizes a great citizen debate and rules …

And in the world... In the United States, the main turning point in recent years has been the

development of shale gas to strengthen energy independence In China, to fuel growth in demand (industry and households), a massive

development policy has been implemented: coal, renewable, nuclear, gas, EV, etc. In emerging countries, the concept of energy transition is mainly aimed at ensuring

sufficient supplies to support industrialization and the growth of householdconsumption.


Power distribution plays a crucial role for new technologies in the electricity system

EV/PHEV

RES

DSM/ Prosumers

BatteriesSmart meters

Linky

Bid dataIA

Electricity Supply Sustainability:• Specify each other

responsibilities• Take system

transformation into account


Favourable policies drive rapid escalation in the uptake of electric cars in the European Union

Electrification of cars in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040


Source : WEO2018

Impact of various levels of co-ordinated charging of EVs on peak electricity demand in the Future is Electric Scenario, 2040

Co-ordinated charging of electric vehicles has the potential to significantly lower peak demand, reducing the need for grid upgrades and peak generation capacity


8%

16%

24%

100

200

300

0% 25% 50% 75% 0% 25% 50% 75%

GW

EV chargingcontribution tosystem peak

Reduction in samehour peak(right axis)

Reduction in systempeak demand(right axis)

European UnionChina

Co-ordinated charging assumes that the majority of charging loads are available to be shifted to outside of peak demand periods, however, user constraints will mean that even with 100% co-ordinated charging, demand for vehicle charging will not be zero during peak times.

Source : WEO2018

Distribution grids generates the highest investment of the electricity value chain

Overall investment in the power sector fell by 6% in 2017 compared to 2016,

despite record investment in solar PV and electricity networks


50 100 150 200 250

Distribution

Transmission

Coal

Gas and oil

Nuclear

Solar PV

Wind

Other renewables

Battery storage

2015

2016

2017

Billion dollars (2017)

Source : WEO2018

Investing in smart distribution grids, 2015-2017

Investment in smart technologies for distribution grids is increasing,but remain a small share of overall grid expenditure

Investment in smarter electricity grids can contribute to flexibility in three ways:

1. expanding and upgrading grids can alleviate congestion and increase the capacity to distribute electricity to where it is needed (maintenance more easy with smart meters – Linky)

2. interconnecting with neighbouring grids can tap into their different supply and demand patterns, as well as expand the pool of available flexibility resources.

3. investing in smart grid technologies can help manage new power flows (EV, DSM & RES) more efficiently.



Understanding the geography of possibly disrupting factors

Individual vehicle electrification rate in 2035 (grey scenario)

Individual vehicle electrification rate in 2035 (green scenario)


Assessing energy transition impacts on electricity demand

Electricity demand growth rate due to EV between 2015 and 2035

(grey scenario)

Electricity demand growth rate due to EV between 2015 and 2035

(green scenario)


This network share depends mainly on the volume of energy consumed by the customer (80%) and its subscribed power (20%)

The network share (transmission & distribution) now represents 30% of a residential electricity bill

30%

36%

24%

10%

Décomposition de la facture TTC d'un client résidentiel français

Réseau

Fourniture

Taxes

CSPE

Breakdown of a household's invoices including all taxes

33 36 44 52 60 61 62 73 76

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Comparaison facture des clients résidentiels en Europe tous clients DC (S2 2013)

€/MWh

Comparison of residential customers' bills in Europe (2013)

GridSupplyTaxesCSPE (REN, …)

Cost versus prices comparaison on power markets: for efficient price signals, increase fixed share in prices(Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam)

Fixed costs

Fixed prices


Take away

| 30

Utilities of the future: Network infrastructure and distributed generation for the transition

Utilities of the future depend on what the future will be. Still a lot of uncertaintiesThe world has changed … and is still changingThe tools to adapt energy policiesConsumer is the center of the game

Investment in distribution network are the most importantEfficient price signals is key considering new infrastructure needsLow CO2 technologies and new infrastructures require increase of fix share in tarriffs

EV/PHEVRES

DSM/ Prosumers

Smart meters

LinkyBid data

IA

Utilities of the future: Network infrastructure and distributed generation for the transition | @Ch_Bonnery | Mendoza | 13-14 March 2019

IAEE Headquarters28790 Chagrin Blvd., Suite 350Cleveland, OH 44122 USA

Tel 1-216-464-5365Fax [email protected]@iaee.org

Christophe BONNERY

Thank you

What is a sustainable energy system?

Sustainability

A sustainable energy system is a systemthat serves the needs of the presentwithout compromising the ability offuture generations to meet theirenergy needs.

Resilient to forecasted events: weatherstorms, peaking demand, equipementfailureRisk : major black-outs, ie longperiods without power, short butfrequent shortageSolutions Adapted emergency intervention

workforce Redundant critical equipment High monitoring with latest

technology (Linky smartmeters)

Industry Security of supply

Cost

EnvironmentSociety (acceptability & shared)

Energy access / Health

Geopolitics


Energy transition or energy transitions?

Definition: A significant change for an energy system that could be related to one or a combination of system structure, scale, economics, technology and energy policy.

Examples of energy transitions during the 19th Century : in transportation: Biomass Coal Muscle power Steam power

in household: whale oil kerosene

There are as many energy transitions as there are national energy policies

Over the years, two pillars have been part of energy transitions: transitioning energy resources & energy efficiency

The pillars of energy policy


Energy transition: a definition?

Energy transition: a profound structural change in energy production and consumptionpatterns. This is part of the ecological transition. It results from technical developments, pricesand the availability of energy resources, but also from the political will of governments andpopulations, companies, etc. who wish to reduce the negative effects of this sector on theenvironment.

The energy transition has several dimensions A technical dimension in the way resources are produced and used: moving from non-renewable to

renewable resources A climate challenge by integrating greenhouse gas emissions: reducing greenhouse gas emissions and

strengthening climate resilience (adaptation component) A behavioral and socio-technical dimension: democratization of energy issues and decentralization

of production, emergence of participatory models, local initiatives, etc.


Past energy transitions?

Transitioning energy resources: Energy transitions are not new

phenomena Energy transitions take time


What are the key drivers of the current EU energy transition?

| 36

A need for mitigate climate change and quality access toenergy

Energy supply and demand changing context… Increased role of electricity in societies (EV, heat pump, etc.) From a centralized large-scale fossil fuel generation to

distributed decentralized small-scale generation based onrenewable energy

Growing number of energy prosumers (individuals and/or localauthorities)

Developing technologies and falling costs

Gas might play a key-role in the EU energy transition ¼ of all energy used in the EU is natural gas. It contributes to the reduction of GHG emissions, it is cheap and

easy to use But gas’ supply needs to be secured Europe is dependent on imports in order to match the demand Europe needs gas from the Caspian region & the North of Europe

Distributed solar PV average installation costs

Source: IEA, World Energy Investment 2018


La planification énergétique impose une approche scénarisée, géographique et sectorielle fine pour être pertinente

L’impact des VE dans la région touchera les zones urbaines denses et les territoires ruraux moins denses


Pénétration des VE en 2035 dans le scénario gris

Taux d’électrification des flottes de véhicules (%)

Répartition des capacités éoliennes installées par commune en 2015 au périmètre Enedis et densité de population des communes (en habitants par km²)

Le réseau de distribution d’électricité permet l’acheminement des zones de production ENR vers les zones les plus habitées

Source : Enedis

Will electric vehicles affect electric system sustainability?

| 38

Observed and anticipated cost evolution of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicle packs

Global electricitydemand from all EV

2017 54 TWh

2030 NPS 404 TWh

2030 EV30@30 928 TWh

EV may exacerbate peaks demand… or becomea solution for electricity networks (“V2G”).

Source: IEA, World Energy Investment 2018


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