Jonathon Peros

Council Staff

Gloucester, MASeptember 28, 2017

1

Outline of Presentation:

Review of 2017 scallop survey results and specification alternatives under development for FY2018 (FW29) No Council Action Required.

Review of management measures under development in FW29. No Council Action Required.

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Summary of 2017 surveys Very successful survey season – 5 separate survey

group1. VIMS dredge survey of MA, NLS, and CA II2. SMAST intensive survey of CA I, CA II, ET, broadscale of GB and MA3. WHOI HabCam v5 survey of the Northern Edge4. CFF HabCam v3 survey of NLS5. NEFSC dredge of GB and Habcam v4 of MA and GB6. Surveys of GOM presented under NGOM agenda item

High level findings (Doc.3c, 3d): Total biomass expected to increase from 2016 (~600 million lbs). Roughly half of total biomass projected to be exploitable in 2018. ACL could increase in FY 2018, set by SSC Oct. 12, 2017. No strong signals of incoming recruitment observed throughout the

resource.

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VIMS surveys 3 Surveys conducted from early-

May to mid July (MA, NLS, CA II) 659 dredge tows (440 MAB, 115

in NLCA and 100 in CA II) Sampling intensity of SH:MW

~5,500 samples in MA and ~1,000 samples for both the NLS & CAII II

Slower growth rates in ET Closed and southern portion of NLS

No strong signals of incoming recruitment.

Findings consistent with 2015 and 2016 survey campaigns

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CAIINLS

Mid-Atlantic

SMAST survey GB & MA Broadscale, high-res

surveys of ET, CAI, CAII 2,875 total stations on 9 cruises

from April - July New: Imperx DSC camera CA I – high densities of 7yo

animals in “sliver” High densities in ET-Flex, NLS-S,

NLS-NA, and parts of NLS-ext Slow growth in high density areas Recruits (>75mm) detected along

western boundary of ET & DMV, also in CAII ext, and LI

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CAII

CAI

ET

Source: SMAST

High density of scallops in Nantucket Lightship

WHOI HabCam v5 survey of the

Northern Edge in partnership with Lund’s Fisheries

Area included Northeast Reduced Impact Habitat Management Area, the Northeast Habitat Management Area, and eastern Georges Shoal.

Exploitable scallops concentrated in the northern portion of the survey area.

Data suggests there are several cohorts of scallops within the footprint of the survey.

6Source: WHOI

CFF Survey NLS using HabCam v3 July 15 – July 22 F/V Kathy Marie ~875 miles of transects, ~10,000

annotated images (1/400) High densities and majority of biomass

in the NLS-S and NLS-NA Majority of animals in NLS-N are ≥100mm

Localized aggregation of scallops in NLS-ext may be driving estimate

Findings generally consistent with VIMS and SMAST surveys

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NLS-ExtNLS-S

NLS-NA

NLS-N

NEFSC Survey Four legs from May - June 128 dredge tows on GB HabCam v4 coverage of GB and MA,

over 8 million images taken, estimates based on ~160,000 manually annotated (1/50)

Lack of incoming recruitment, some along northern edge

High densities of 5yo scallops in NLS, NLS-ext, HC, and ET

Slow growth in high density areas remains an issue

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Photo Credit: NOAA Fisheries – Robert Johnson

High Density in ET-Flex. Photo Credit: NEFSC

Status, Updates: Similar story to 2016 (FW28). Continued slow growth in high density areas.

As with 2016 process, PDT recommending adjustments to SH/MW and growth parameters using data from 16/17 surveys.

Dredge efficiency in high density areas remains an issue. General agreement between optical surveys when the dredge

estimate is much lower. Lack of strong recruitment in recent years. Nothing in the

pipeline in open areas for the foreseeable future. PDT reviewed 2018 exploitable biomass estimates on Monday

(September 25, 2017). SSC meets to review OFLs and ABCs on October 12, 2017.

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Survey biomass estimates:

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General agreement of dredge, drop camera, and HabCambiomass estimates when high density areas are excluded: ET-Flex, NLS-S, and NLS-NA

Dredge Drop Cam HabCam

124,592 mt 131,501 mt 135,076 mtSource: SMAST Source: CFFSource: VIMS

Closed Area II and Extension

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Potential access to CA II in FY 2018. Preliminary 2018 biomass estimates suggest it would require combining CA II AA and CA II ext.

Bycatch of yellowtail flounder will continue to be an issue. May consider different seasonal closure of CAII-ext

3yo cohort in CAII-ext likely to recruit into fishery.

Closed Area I 7 year old animals were observed in

the "sliver" area “Sliver” is not currently available to

fishery – awaiting OHA2 Measures in FW29 to reconfigure

boundary Meat samples appeared generally

healthy, though quality may be issue as animals get older.

The PDT supports access if boundary is expanded to include the "sliver" area.

Future CA I AA access should address carryover trips which are already on the books (~1.5 million lbs.).

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NW corner of CAI sliver. Photo Credit: NEFSC

NLS-S – high density, small size

5 YO scallops average 77 mm. Large variation in size across

space. Reality is that there is a huge

biomass of high count scallops with a finite scope of growth in marginal habitat.

~60mm ~90mm

Red: 2017 ProjectedBlue: 2017 Observed

100 mm

Shells from VIMS

Nantucket Lightship NLS-North

Commercial = 126.8 mmSurvey = 110.91 mm

2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~2.9 million lbs (preliminary)Majority of 2017 effort here.Holds the largest animals.

NLS-ExtensionCommercial = 121.88 mm

Survey = 106.72 mm2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~4 million lbs (preliminary)

VERY UNCERTAIN

NLS-SouthCommercial = 85.53 mm

Survey = 77.07 mm2018 Exploitable at F=0.38:

~18.6 million lbs (preliminary)Faster growth in >70m

NLS-No AccessCommercial = 104.72 mm

Survey = 102.44 mm2018 Exploitable at F=0.38:

~18 million lbs (preliminary)NOT AVAILABLE – Still Closure

Mid-Atlantic AA The MAAA can likely support

multiple trips in 2018 Potential growth issues in high

density areas of the ET-Flex that impact expectation of size in 2018

15Length Interval (mm)

Frac

tion

of T

otal

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.150.20 Blob n= 80,810

Mean Length = 48.78 mm

Flex n= 78,798

Mean Length = 69.73 mm

Blob n= 80,810

Mean Length = 48.78 mm

Flex n= 78,798

Mean Length = 69.73 mm

2015

0.00

0.050.10

0.15

0.20 Blob n= 61,678

MeanLength = 74.47 mm

Flex n= 11,780

Mean Length = 87.93 mm

Blob n= 61,678

MeanLength = 74.47 mm

Flex n= 11,780

Mean Length = 87.93 mm

2016

0.000.05

0.10

0.150.20

0 50 100 150

Blob n= 55,260

Mean Length = 80.48 mm

Flex n= 6,425

Mean Length = 89.38 mm

Blob n= 55,260

Mean Length = 80.48 mm

Flex n= 6,425

Mean Length = 89.38 mm

2017

Blob Area Mean Length Blob Flex Area Mean Length Flex

2017 Effort – Hours Fished

2016 ET Biomass Estimates

Specifications Tasking Committee tasking for two spatial management

configurations (see following slides) 5 access area trips proposed in both runs, 2 F rates 4 total runs

Committee tasking to develop an alternative that would allocate a trip to fish on the slow growing animals in NLS-S.

Committee tasking to evaluate DAS harvest that would allow for constant open bottom harvest for four years.

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1 trip in NLS, NLS-ext becomes open bottom

3 trips in the MAAA, remove “flex” boundary

1 trip in CAII(may require ext)Seasonal closure of ext to protect YT

Committee Tasking to PDT (Doc.5)Motion #1b Specifications Run of AAs, and a range of approaches for open areas. RED – Potential Rotational ClosureGREEN – Potential Access

Hudson Canyon

Delmarva

Elephant Trunk

5 total AA trips, Set DAS using F=0.48, F=0.4

CAII

CAI

NLS

Make Delmarva open area

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1 trip in NLS, AA would include NLS-NA

1trip in the MAAA, 1 trip in the ET “Flex”

1 trip CAII (AA includes CAII and CAII ext)

Committee Tasking to PDT (Doc.5)Motion #1a Specifications Run of AAs, and a range of approaches for open areas. RED – Potential Rotational ClosureGREEN – Potential Access

Hudson Canyon

Delmarva

Elephant Trunk

5 total AA trips, Set DAS using F=0.48, F=0.4

1 trip in CAI(AA includes CAI and CAI N)

CAII

CAI

NLS

Framework 29 FW29 initiated at April Council Meeting Likely range of alternatives:

Specifications Northern Gulf of Maine TAC, management measures Flatfish Accountability Measures OHA2 – Modify boundaries to facilitate access

Simple Increased likelihood FW in place for April 1.

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Specifications

FY2018 and Default measures for FY2019

FY starts on April 1 ABC/ACLs Access area allocationsGeneral Category IFQ LA DAS allocations TAC for NGOM Set-asides

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FW29: Northern Gulf of Maine

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Doc. #2c, #3c, and materials from Aug. 29/30 PDT meeting Problem Statement developed at April Council meeting. Committee tasking in June and September. PDT discussion earlier this week. Results from 2017 survey work.

Simple Increased likelihood FW in place for April 1.

SMAST Survey of Stellwagen Bank F/V Guidance, July 7 - 13 Imprex DSC Drop Camera on

1.5km grid No signs of incoming

recruitment Mean SH: 103mm Total Biomass estimate

800,000 lbs (365mt, SE 69mt)

Total Exploitable Biomass 500,000 lbs (228mt, SE 44 mt)

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CFF survey Stellwagen Bank and Jeffreys

Ledge on July 8th & 9th, 2017 HabCamV3, 90nm, 400k images

Annotation rate: 1:200

6 dredge tows on Stellwagen No strong signals of recruitment Stellwagen Biomass estimate

~1 mil. lbs (459mt, SE 54mt)

Jeffreys Ledge Biomass 335,000 lbs (152mt, SE 35 mt)

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Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors, Sources: Esri,GEBCO, NOAA, National Geographic, DeLorme, HERE, Geonames.org, and othercontributors

0 2 4 6 81Miles

LegendSurvey Tracks

Proposed survey tracks

NGoM VMSNGoM VMS

2016 NGOM Survey Results

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01-3031-100101-200200+

Number per tow • Biomass expected to increase with annual growth.• ~75% of estimated biomass on Stellwagen Bank and Jefferys

Ledge, ~25% in other survey areas• Jeffreys Ledge surveyed after fishing in 2016, Stellwagen

surveyed while fishing occurring.

Mean estimate (lbs) % of total

Machias-Seal Island 348,000 9.6%MDI 5,357 0.1%Platts Bank 335,522 9.2%Ipswich Bay 175,841 4.8%Jeffreys Ledge 635,086 17.4%Stellwagen Bank 2,140,137 58.8%Total 3,639,942

ME DMR/UMaine survey Objective: Project growth in areas that

were surveyed in 2016, but not fished in 2016 or 2017. EX: Ipswich Bay, Platts Bank

2018 outlook: Several hundred thousand lbs in areas that were not fished in 16/17.

High level of uncertainty around these projections.

Highest densities remain on StellwagenBank, 2018 fishing effort expected to remain in this area.

PDT recommends setting 2018 TAC based on exploitable biomass on Stellwagen Bank (i.e. do not include these estimates in TAC setting).

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2016

20172018

Platts Bank

NGOM Problem Statement: Problem: Unknown biomass and recent high landings

Goal: Understanding total removals and improving management

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LAGC TAC LA limit

Set limit/cap overall removals

SurveyFishery Data

NGOM TAC Consideration #1: 1. How to distribute removals between groups?

NGOM TAC is not part of annual projected landings Committee tasking motion for Hybrid approach

see Doc.2c, and Committee Motions

Rationale: Short term “band-aid”; current LA TAC in area: no limit

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LAGC TAC LA limitHow to distribute removals between

groups?

Set limit/cap overall removals

Survey Fishery Data

NGOM TAC Consideration #1: “Hybrid Approach”

Committee Tasking Motion 4a.1. Initial portion of TAC to GC

(“floor”) – 70,000 lbs2. Remainder of TAC split

between GC and LA – 50/503. See rationale

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LA TAC:65,000 lbs

NGOM TAC Example: 200,000 lbs

GC TAC: 135,000 lbs

Remaining TAC (130,000 lbs) split: 50/50

Example TACsplit

First 70,000 lbs to LAGC

NGOM TAC Consideration #1: “Hybrid Approach”

Committee Tasking Motion 4b.1. Initial portion of TAC to GC

(“floor”) – 95,000 lbs2. Remainder of TAC split

between GC and LA – 25/753. See rationale.

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LA TAC:78,750 lbs

NGOM TAC Example: 200,000 lbs

GC TAC: 121,250 lbs

Remaining TAC (105,000 lbs) split: 75 (LA) / 25 (GC)

Example TACsplit

First 95,000 lbs to LAGC

NGOM TAC Consideration #2: 2. Develop harvest approach for LA component.

Council motion calls for status quo regs for LAGC. Overall TAC may inform what approaches are feasible.

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LA limit (TAC)

Harvest Approach i:DAS exchange for

declared trip to the area.

PDT discussion: VMS declaration, trips DAS exchange Make lbs eligible for

RSA compensation fishing

Harvest Approach ii:RSA compensation

fishing

PDT met on Monday – planning to continue development ahead of Oct. meetings

Flatfish AMsCommittee tasking motion from June: Focus on gear modifications (5-row apron and 1.5:1

hanging ratio), potentially consider seasonal closures

Focus on three stocks: Northern windowpane (regulatory requirement) Georges Bank yellowtail SNE/MA yellowtail

PDT is developing potential measures

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GB YellowtailAs of early September 2017: Scallop fishery has exceeded

sub-ACL for FY2017 99% of YT bycatch from CAII CAII landings at 82% of projected

catch (5.8 mil. lbs) Groundfish:16.8% of sub-ACL

(27.4 mt), offshore spring fishery Scallop AM does not trigger

unless total ACL is exceeded

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0

50

100

150

200

250

2017 Catch

ACL: 201mt

Scallop Sub-ACL: 32 mt

Projected Catch: 63 mt27.4 mt

45.9 mt

127 mt

Flatfish AM developmentNo tasking from Scallop Committee in September.PDT is developing potential measures based on

calculations of bycatch “savings” for each stock.GRA: requiring the use of a modified dredge (same

as SNE/MA windowpane) in open areas, CA II Seasonal closures of CA II access area.

NWP and GB YT: Focus is on GB open areas, CA II SNE/MA YT: Focus on open areas west of 71°W

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Potential Modifications to Closed Area I Scallop Access Areas

Measures to modify CAI AA boundary considered in FW28, FW29

FW29 - Focus on expanding CA I AA to cover areas with exploitable scallops (“sliver”)

Awaiting OHA2 Final Rule Specifications – CA I with

sliver is NOT currently available.

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Potential Modifications to Nantucket Lightship Areas

Committee tasking motion to develop measures to create access area boundary for current NLS-NA

FW29 - Focus on replacing closure area with access area

Awaiting OHA2 Final Rule Specifications – This area

can support full trips, but is not available. Animals are ~100mm in 2017.

Scallop Timelines

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2017 2018

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul

FW29

Develop alternativesand prepare impacts

FINALAction

PrepareFW29 for submission

April 1Effective

2018 Scallop Benchmark Assessment SARC

RSA 2018 Council Priorities The Council will take final action on FW29 before a decision is made

on OHA2 Specification alternatives should focus on available areas.

Facilitating access to areas that may open through OHA2 (CAI “sliver” and NLS-NA) will require a separate Council action (i.e. not FW29).

The timing of the decision and effective date of OHA2 will impact the follow-up options for harvest in these areas.

What’s next? Follow-up on Monday’s PDT Meeting SSC Meeting – October 12, 2017 to approve OFL/ABC AP & CTE meetings - October 25/26, 2017 to review analyses AP & CTE meetings – Nov. 25/26 to review analyses and select

preferred alternatives Final Council Action – December 5-7, 2017 FW29 implementation: April 1, 2017

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Questions?

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Key Change to AM policy Council Policy on Scallop AM Triggers changed in

FW56 for 2 years through “temporary exception” for GB yellowtail flounder and Northern Windowpane flounder FW56 removed the 150% of sub-ACL trigger. Trigger: 100% of scallop sub-ACL and 100% of

overall ACL is caught.

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2017 Scallop sub-ACLs and projected catchGB YT SNE/MA

YTSo. Windowpane

N. Windowpane

2017 ACL 201 mt 256 mt 599 mt 172 mtsub-ACL 32 mt 34 mt 209 mt 38 mtProj. catch estimates

63.21 mt

10.66 77.85 103.33

% of 2017 sub-ACL

198% 31% 37% 272%

In Season Catch AccountingCatch est. 45.9 mt 5.69 mt 83.19 mt 23.50 mt% of 2017 sub-ACL

143.3% 16.7% 39.8% 61.8%

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Nantucket Lightship

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NLS ‐ No Access

NLS Access ‐ South

NLS Access ‐ Ext

NLS Access ‐ North

ACL/OFL calculations with 2018 exploitable biomass

PRELIMINARY

DO NOT CITE or REFERENCE

MA ExBms18 ACL18 ACL19 OFL18 OFL29HCS 7296 2702 2675 3288 3233Virginia 4 15 84 19 103ETOp 11605 4087 4314 4946 5210ETFlex 19486 7096 7151 8596 8666Dmv 1732 962 1867 1173 2245NYB 4651 1736 1876 2094 2259LI 8994 2943 2557 3545 3065Inshore 1872 685 840 826 1009TotalMA 55640 20226 21364 24487 25790

C1NA 9016 2664 2230 3209 2676C1Acc 1044 267 205 320 246C2NA 2962 952 1045 1152 1263C2Acc 3344 1143 1187 1386 1428NLSNA 23114 8449 7863 10213 9441NLSAccN 4735 1320 1052 1585 1262NLSACCS‐shal 6965 2173 1945 2623 1341NLSACCS‐deep 23051 6290 6997 7662 8502C2Ext 4234 1374 1239 1650 1480NLSExt 7371 1852 1252 2213 1495Sch 5000 1540 2265 1848 2682NF 1002 334 382 402 459SF 3831 1278 1261 1535 1508Total GB 95669 29636 28923 35798 33783

TOTAL 151309 49862 50287 60285 59573

End.

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