Joanne Ho Wildfire Prediction
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Transcript of Joanne Ho Wildfire Prediction
04/10/23 1
Wildfire and Weatherin Southern California:
An exploratory quantitative analysis
Joanne Ho
Ph.D. defenseSchool of Forest Resources
University of WashingtonDecember 7, 2009
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What is wildfire?
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Fires > 250 acres (1980-2003)
Source: www.usgs.gov
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Southern California
San Francisco
Monterey
Lake Tahoe
Tijuana
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Research Question:
Is it possible set up an insurance scheme that will cover costs that exceed the budget allocation?
Traditional insurance
• Dollar-for-dollar payment for damages
• Insurance negligence
• Costly monitoring
• Payment based on proxy of damages
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Alternative insurance
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What causes fires?
Physical:
Weather:
fuel
ignition
temperaturemoisture wind
Weather Derivative
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Can weather derivatives cover costs that exceed the budget allocation?
Given known weather…
What is theprobability of ignition?
If ignition occurs, what is expected size of fire?
Find the best fit payoff function to pay for excess costs
Does the payoff function adequatelypay for excess costs?
Conclusions & further research
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Probability of ignition
Prob{Fireit 1 |weather} ( i 'wi i)Probit model
Logit model
Prob{Fireit 1 |weather} exp( i 'wi i)
1 exp( i 'wi i)
wi = temperature temperature2
relative humidity relative humidity2
vapor pressure deficit rainfall amount2
rainfall duration2
wind speed wind speed2
wi = temperature x relative humidity temperature x rainfall amount temperature x rainfall duration temperature x wind speed relative humidity x rainfall amount relative humidity x rainfall duration relative humidity x wind speed rainfall amount x rainfall duration rainfall amount x wind speed
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Expected size of fire
E[area_burned | ignition] 'wi "i iOrdinary least squares
wi = temperature temperature2
relative humidity relative humidity2
vapor pressure deficit rainfall amount2
rainfall duration2
wind speed wind speed2
wi = temperature x relative humidity temperature x rainfall amount temperature x rainfall duration temperature x wind speed relative humidity x rainfall amount relative humidity x rainfall duration relative humidity x wind speed rainfall amount x rainfall duration rainfall amount x wind speed
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Weather:• temperature• relative humidity• vapor pressure deficit• precipitation amount• precipitation duration• wind speed• wind direction
Data
Fire data:• date• Location• area burned• cost of suppression
Probit Model
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Results: estimated probability
Estimated Hectares Burned
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Residual hectares burned
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Res
idu
al
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Can weather derivatives cover costs that exceed the budget allocation?
Given known weather…
What is theprobability of ignition?
If ignition occurs, what is expected size of fire?
Find the best fit payoff function to pay for excess costs
Does the payoff function adequatelypay for excess costs?
Conclusions & further research
Gain from hedge ($)
$0
Option premium
slope = Y(i)
i
€
Y (imax )
€
Y (imin )
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Net cash flow for fire manager
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= -suppression costs + derivative compensations
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Conclusions
Can weather derivatives cover costs that exceed the budget allocation?
What is theprobability of ignition?
If ignition occurs, what is expected size of fire?
Find the best fit payoff function to pay for excess costs
Does the payoff function adequatelypay for excess costs?
Further research
Further Research
• Control for vegetation age & type
• Model patterns of human ignition
• Include population dynamics
• Understand spending structure
• Explore alternative insurance schemes
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Thank You!
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Acknowledgements
Committee• John Perez-Garcia• Ernesto Alvarado• Steve Harrell• Tom Hinckley• Dave Peterson
• USFS PNW PSW Fire lab• CINTRAFOR• MCCE IGERT• CSDE• Humboldt University at
Berlin• Dr. Martin Odening• Dr. Wei Xu• Silke Hüttel
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Literature
Fire prediction• NFDRS• Canadian Wildland
Fire Info System• Preisler et al. (2004)• Brillinger (2006)
Weather Derivative• Roll (1984) – Orange
juice, Florida• Turvey (2001,2006) –
Ice wine, Ontario• van Asseldonk et al.
(2003) – horticulture, Netherlands
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Framework of Dissertation
Question:
Can weather derivatives cover costs that
exceed the budget allocation?
Ch 2:
Weather-based estimation of wildfire risk
Ch 3:
Weather Derivatives for Specific Event Risks in California Wildfires
Ch 4:
Conclusion and
Further Research
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Logit & probit distributions
Bayesian Information Criterion
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BIC = −2ln(L) + [ln(N)]k