Jo Hyun Kim, Rhonda Kline, Charles Gilbert, Rachel Smith

Western Illinois University

http://www.wiu.edu/irp/

As tuition and prices for books and room and board continue to rise, students and parents are searching for tuition-and-fee stability in an unpredictable economic environment.

Major Goals• Of Families - having a predictable cost for college.• Of Students - Providing added incentive to complete their degrees in

a timely manner.• Of the University - Meeting the long-standing goal of a high quality,

affordable education.

Looked at the possibility of offering in 1996.

Studied other institutions’ cost guarantees.

Developed a first cost guarantee model.

After much discussion among university administration, the Board of Trustees, students and faculty, the university developed the final cost guarantee model.

Began in Fall 1999 and was offered to all undergraduates matriculating that semester.

No change in tuition, fees, room, and board for four years, or the normal time to obtain a degree, as long as the student remains continuously enrolled.◦ Cost Guarantee to graduates in Fall 2004.

Growing interest in tuition-and-fee stability in an unpredictable economic environment, more colleges and universities are implementing cost guarantees (FinAid, 2007; Kim, 2004).

Concerns were expressed regarding the values and merits of a cost guarantee (Morphew, 2007).

No study has attempted to examine the impact of a cost guarantee.

The primary purpose of this study is to investigate how the Cost Guarantee program impacts student enrollment, retention, and graduation in a comprehensive public university.

This study also examined how the Cost Guarantee influenced annual college attendance cost.

1. Did the Cost Guarantee policy make the university competitive in attendance cost, compared to other public universities in the state?

2. Did the Cost Guarantee policy increase student enrollment?

3. Did the Cost Guarantee policy improve student outcomes, particularly retention and graduation rates?

Data Collection◦ Secondary data set◦ Trends data for cost of attendance, new

freshmen enrollment, retention, and graduation rates of 12 Illinois public universities

◦ From IBHE Data Book and IPEDS Peer Analysis System and CSRDE reports

Data Analysis◦ Descriptive statistics

Did the Cost Guarantee policy make the university competitive in attendance cost, compared to other

public universities in the state?

FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007

Univ. A 3151 3255 3474 3851 4551 6143 6626 7138

Univ. B 3934 4167 4301 4648 5149 5781 6373 7069

Univ. C 2378 2454 2526 3054 4010 4622 5050 5478

Univ. D 4210 4340 4486 5037 5530 6328 7091 8040

Univ. E 2858 2946 3200 3326 4331 4932 6306 6921

Univ. F 4384 4583 4814 5175 5799 6617 7229 7871

Univ. G 3936 4114 4254 4865 5521 6341 6831 7789

Univ. H 2744 3007 3291 3709 4183 4859 5209 5938

Univ. I 4648 4800 5620 6592 6958 7824 8498 9742

Univ. J 3292 3395 3611 4009 4310 5247 5965 7244

Univ. K 4770 4994 5754 6704 7010 7944 8634 9882

WIU 1st 3836 3973 4282 4846 5431 6183 6899 7411

WIU 2nd 3836 3836 3973 4282 4846 5431 6183 6899

WIU 3rd 3836 3836 3836 3973 4282 4846 5431 6183

WIU 4th 3836 3836 3836 3836 3973 4282 4846 5431

FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007

Univ. A 5700 5800 5826 5898 5856 6032 6212 6492

Univ. B 4104 4500 4842 5106 5374 5750 6196 6660

Univ. C 4248 4396 4758 5062 5414 5576 6054 6478

Univ. D 4416 5542 5862 5990 6150 6380 6984 7488

Univ. E 3872 4104 4367 4627 4886 5178 5560 6138

Univ. F 4164 4598 4870 5016 6240 6544 6720 7460

Univ. G 6894 6860 6758 6936 7138 7402 7678 8482

Univ. H 5544 5828 6070 6360 6618 6848 7176 7706

WIU 1st 4292 4506 4822 5062 5366 5768 6143 6446

WIU 2nd 4292 4292 4506 4822 5062 5366 5768 6143

WIU 3rd 4292 4292 4292 4506 4822 5062 5366 5768

WIU 4th 4292 4292 4292 4292 4506 4822 5062 5366

FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007

Univ. A 8851 9055 9300 9749 10407 12175 12838 13630

Univ. B 8038 8667 9143 9754 10523 11531 12569 13729

Univ. C 8458 8736 9244 10099 10944 11904 13145 14518

Univ. D 8800 10125 10676 11165 11949 12997 14213 15359

Univ. E 7808 8218 8621 9492 10407 11519 12391 13927

Univ. F 6908 7605 8161 8725 10423 11403 11929 13398

Univ. G 11542 11660 12378 13528 14096 15226 16176 18224

Univ. H 10244 10822 11824 13064 13628 14792 15810 17588

WIU1st 8128 8479 9104 9908 10797 11951 13042 13857

WIU2nd 8128 8128 8479 9104 9908 10797 11951 13042

WIU3rd 8128 8128 8128 8479 9104 9908 10797 11951

WIU4th 8128 8128 8128 8128 8479 9104 9908 10797

Results confirmed that the cost guarantee program helped the university become more competitive in attendance cost compared to other public universities within the same state after the policy implementation.◦ FY2004 and FY2005, the university’s second,

third and fourth year students were paying the lowest tuition rates of Illinois public universities.

Did the Cost Guarantee policy increase student enrollment?

Table 2-1. Number of Enrollments at Illinois Public Universities: Fall 1992-Fall 2006 (in Handout)

Table 2-2. Annual Enrollment Change (%) (in Handout)

Table 2-3. Annual Enrollment Change Rank (in Handout)

Cost guarantee program enhanced student enrollment

◦ New Freshmen average enrollment headcount comparison 1,597 from fall 1992 to fall 1998 1,867 from fall 1999 to fall 2006 16.9% increase (3rd highest increase among 10 Illinois

public universities with data)

◦ New Freshmen average annual enrollment rate change comparison 0.8% from fall 1992 to fall 1998 (sixth highest among

10 public universities) 2.0% from fall 1999 to fall 2006 (third highest among

10 public universities)

Did the Cost Guarantee policy improve student outcomes, particularly retention

and graduation rates?

  1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Univ. A NA 62% 70% 76% NA NA 58% 63% 60% NA 57% 53%

Univ. C 77% 73% 74% 75% 76% 79% 79% 80% 80% 83% 84% 85%

Univ. D 74% 71% 73% 77% 77% 76% 77% 76% 77% 77% 78% 79%

Univ. E 71% 71% 69% 70% 68% 69% 68% 65% 71% 68% 70% 68%

Univ. F 63% 65% 70% 70% 74% 71% 71% 72% 69% 75% 75% 76%

Univ. H 91% 91% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 91% 92% 90% 93%

Univ. I 60% 66% 65% 67% 67% 68% 69% 72% 69% 69% 70% 69%

WIU 66% 67% 69% 70% 73% 74% 74% 75% 76% 76% 77% 79%

  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

  4yr 6yr 4yr 6yr 4yr 6yr 4yr 6yr 4yr 6yr 4yr 6yr 4yr 6yr

Univ. A 5.7 16.3 3.0 17.8 1.2 15.2 1.7 13.6 2.0 15.8 2.9 18.0 4.1 16.2

Univ. B 30.4 65.3 30.8 66.4 30.9 59.5 34.1 62.2 32.6 60.6 31.5 60.5 31.1 60.3

Univ. C 27.9 55.9 30.4 57.3 31.2 59.1 33.4 61.8 35.0 63.3 37.0 64.2 39.5 65.2

Univ. D 24.0 49.2 25.2 51.3 25.9 52.9 24.2 51.3 25.4 53.3 22.9 48.3 26.0 52.3

Univ. E 17.6 40.4 17.1 38.6 19.6 43.3 21.3 43.1 19.3 41.4 20.7 41.8 24.0 45.7

Univ. F 14.2 41.5 14.5 37.6 19.9 44.6 18.3 42.8 18.6 44.8 21.7 45.8 21.1 44.8

Univ. G 12.5 42.0 16.7 44.0 16.3 45.5 16.1 44.7 19.8 49.8 21.3 50.5 22.4 50.0

Univ. H 54.9 78.0 56.5 79.9 58.1 81.0 58.5 80.4 60.3 82.9 61.0 81.7 62.6 81.9

Univ. I 2.5 14.0 1.5 14.1 2.5 17.9 1.6 15.2 2.3 16.9 2.8 18.5 2.2 18.7

WIU 25.5 49.1 29.0 50.7 28.1 55.3 28.8 54.3 32.1 55.4 31.6 55.6 33.2 56.6

Findings from this study support positive impacts of the cost guarantee policy on student enrollment, fall-to-fall retention rates, and four-year graduation rates.◦ The first year retention rate of first-time full-

time degree-seeking students has continued to increase, except for the 2002 cohort.

◦ Cost guarantee improved four-year graduation rates, but limited impact on six-year graduation rates.

◦ Cost guarantee program improved student retention and graduation rates when compared to other Illinois public universities.

Study supports positive impact of the cost guarantee policy on student enrollment, fall-to-fall retention rates, and four-year graduation rates.

The implementation of a cost guarantee which covers not only tuition, but also fees and room and board, makes college costs more predictable and enables parents and students to enter the university knowing in advance what their four-year cost will be which allows them to plan college costs accordingly.

Seeing the success of the university’s cost guarantee, the state passed a “Truth in Tuition” law and mandated all public universities in the state to provide a tuition cost guarantee beginning in fall 2004.

Use long-term data for future study.Evaluate other impacting factors such as:◦ Financial aid◦ Change in family income◦ Unemployment rateUse different research design such as:o Experimental studieso Quasi-experimental studies comparing control

and non-control groups