Overview of survey, data collection and data analysis challenges

Jared WilsonMarine Ornithologist

• Survey Design

• Data Collection

• Data analysis

Overview of issues

Information available from range of sources:

Survey Design

• MMO (2014). Review of post-consent offshore wind farm monitoring data associated with licence conditions.

• Oedekoven, et al (2013). Statistical Modelling of Seabird and Cetacean data: Literature Review

• SNH (2011). Draft Guidance on Survey and Monitoring in Relation to Marine

Renewables Deployments in Scotland. Under revision?

• Camphuysen, et al (2004) Towards standardised seabirds at sea census techniques in connection with environmental impact assessments for offshore wind farms in the U.K.: a comparison of ship and aerial sampling methods for marine birds, and their applicability to offshore wind farm assessments.

ESAS methods

Kober, et al. 2010. JNCC Report 431.

Survey Design

Survey Design COWRIE

Offshore wind issues relevant to ‘wets’:

Survey Design

• Scale - appropriate to variability of metric

• Effort - driven by the question, variability of metric, magnitude of change of interest

• Effort - within development area often insufficient

• Monitoring- to tie responses to specific causes

• Transect spacing – default may not be appropriate

• No. surveys - unlikely to allow a change to be detected

• Control sites - unlikely to be appropriate

• Imperfect detection - often ignored

• Best practice - depends on species, site, metric, baseline variability, the question.

Issues apparent from ‘wet’ renewables projects

Survey Design

Survey Design

Sufficient effort in development site?

How much effort is within lease area?

Let alone the likely development footprint?

Survey Design

Is buffer relevant to lease area?

How similar are environmental conditions across the survey area?

A B

E

DF

C

X

Survey Design Post-hoc subdivision of survey area

How much effort in each sub-division

How does coverage probability and effort vary across sub-divisions?

Survey Design

Also:

•VP unit of effort often unclear/ poorly defined (not snap shot so flux measurement?)•Detectability decreases with distance from observer but often ignored.•For VPs, distance from shore confounds increasing distance from observer but often (always?) ignored.•Question being addressed and metric to be recorded often unclear.

Issues apparent from ‘wet’ renewables projects

Data Collection

• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded

Data Collection

• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded• Survey effort confounded?

What is true effort?

Data Collection

• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded• Survey effort confounded?

What is true effort?

Data Collection

• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded• Survey effort confounded• Observers unclear on reasons for recording various aspects of

observations (especially effort).

Data Analysis

Detection probability

What is true distribution?

Data Analysis

• Imperfect detection

Detection probability

What is true distribution?

Data Analysis

Confounding effect of increasing distance from coast

• Imperfect detection

Data Analysis

• Imperfect detection

• Uncertainty not presented

• Unclear whether survey effort appropriate (no power analysis)

• Post-hoc subdivision of survey area/effort

• Lack of clarity over analyses methods used

• Diagnostic outputs not presented so impossible to come to view on methods used (including Distance analysis)

MSS identified need for:

Data Analysis

• Review of available methods

• Guidance on most appropriate statistical analysis of bird and marine mammal data routinely collected

• Freely available software to allow appropriate analysis

Clear need for guidance identified

Data Analysis

MRSea

•Contract awarded to CREEM at University of St Andrews in 2013.

•Completed August 2013

•Workshop held September 2013

•Methods review, Guidance and software package freely available to download:http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marineenergy/Research/SB9

Summary

• Range of experience to inform survey design, data collection and analysis.

• Increasing body of guidance exists

• Wave & Tidal Stream Energy sites have distinct challenges

• Methods are evolving (and need to continue to do so)

Any Questions?

Jared WilsonMarine Ornithologist

jared.wilson@scotland.gsi.gov.uk