JANUARY/FEBRUARY RESULTS€¦ · JANUARY/FEBRUARY ALTERNATE RESULTS Symbol Company Name Entry Price...
Transcript of JANUARY/FEBRUARY RESULTS€¦ · JANUARY/FEBRUARY ALTERNATE RESULTS Symbol Company Name Entry Price...
2016 Issue #2 - Published February 23rd Subscription information available at ValuEngine.com
For January/February, the stock market continued to deal with the volatility which has been the hallmark of 2016 so far. Fortunately, atthe end of the rebalance period we saw a sharp move to the upside. Our long-only portfolio posted a great result for the month as we saw alot of green across our board. We posted a significant gain of 7.61% and beat the S&P 500's gain of 4.63% by 298 bps. The trailing 12 monthgain of the VE View is -18.36% versus the S&P 500 loss of 8.04%. The return since inception of the View is 90.59% versus the S&P's gain of 71.79%.
We had a hit ratio in excess of 66% this month as only four positions posted losses. Energy firm Tesoro did the real damage with its 12%decline. Other declines were far more modest. Five of our winners posted double-digit gains with Hawaiian Holdings and US Concrete turningin gains in excess of 25%. The volatility did mean that some positions hit hypothetical stop-losses levels set at 7.5%. Due to the market bounce,the stop-lossed portfolio lagged performance by 154 bps. We will keep those levels at the 7.5% level moving forward until we get a better senseof the overall market direction.
Currently, the Valuation Model finds that 28.81% of the equities to which we can assign a valuation are overvalued--with 8.77%coming in overvalued at 20% or more. Two sectors are calculated to be overvalued. According to these valuations, stocks remain “cheap”--although not as much of a bargain as they were last month.
As has been the case for much of the year, equity pricing has been tied closely to gyrations in the energy markets—along with othercommodities. Recovery there leads to big days for stocks. We continue to see decent metrics for the US labor market, which should be a goodsign, but, the global uncertainty continues to spook investors. However, the carnage so far this year seems to have given the Fed pause vis-a-visaddito9nal interest rate hikes. That action still appears premature at best.
In our February portfolio, we turnover just a few positions as the model found few reasons to change course. On a sector basis themodel likes Construction and Transportation. We add three selections from our Valuation model's aggressive-growth strategy and one positionfavored by both the aggressive growth and diversified-growth strategy.
SteveHachSenior Editor, ValuEngine Inc.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY RESULTS Ticker Company Name Entry Price 1/21/16 Current Price Change %Change
BLDR BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE 7.63 7.39 -0.24 -3.15
CALM CAL-MAINE FOODS 46.86 50.66 3.80 8.10
EXPR EXPRESS INC 16.63 16.97 0.34 2.04
GPN GLOBAL PAYMENTS 58.02 61.46 3.44 5.93
GT GOODYEAR TIRE 27.86 29.90 2.04 7.32
HA HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS 30.70 41.13 10.43 33.97
JKS JINKOSOLAR HOLDING 19.27 22.42 3.15 16.35
NSANY NISSAN MOTOR ADR 18.07 17.37 -0.70 -3.87
OME OMEGA PROTEIN 19.60 21.83 2.23 11.38
SKYW SKYWEST INC 14.27 16.12 1.85 12.96
SPR SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS 43.15 46.13 2.98 6.91
TBI TRUEBLUE INC 21.95 22.82 0.87 3.96
TSO TESORO CORP 87.19 76.32 -10.87 -12.47
USCR US CONCRETE INC 42.57 53.49 10.92 25.65
WD WALKER & DUNLOP 23.14 22.94 -0.20 -0.86
LONG PORTFOLIO 7.61
GSPC S&P500 1859.33 1945.5 86.17 4.63
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JANUARY/FEBRUARY ALTERNATE RESULTS
Symbol Company Name Entry Price 1/21/16 Current Price Change %Change
ACM AECOM TECH CORP 25.13 26.77 1.64 6.53
CNTY CENTURY CASINOS 6.79 6.60 -0.19 -2.80
ERII ENERGY RECOVERY 6.02 6.39 0.37 6.15
HII HUNTINGTON INGL 121.98 134.53 12.55 10.29
WEB WEB.COM GROUP 17.92 17.75 -0.17 -0.95
LONG PORTFOLIO 3.84
GSPC S&P500 1859.33 1945.5 86.17 4.63
FEBRUARY/MARCH PORTFOLIO Ticker Company Name Mkt Price Number of Shares Sector
CALM CAL-MAINE FOODS 50.66 20 Consumer Staples
DY DYCOM INDS 59.98 17 Construction
EXPR EXPRESS INC 16.97 59 Retail-Wholesale
FRO FRONTLINE LTD 9.44 106 Transportation
GPN GLOBAL PAYMENTS 61.46 16 Business Services
GT GOODYEAR TIRE 29.9 33 Auto-Tires-Trucks
HA HAWAIIAN HLDGS 41.13 24 Transportation
JBLU JETBLUE AIRWAYS 22.39 45 Transportation
JKS JINKOSOLAR HLDG 22.42 45 Oils-Energy
OME OMEGA PROTEIN 21.83 46 Consumer Staples
SKX SKECHERS USA-A 32.43 31 Consumer Discretionary
SKYW SKYWEST INC 16.12 62 Transportation
SPR SPIRIT AEROSYS 46.13 22 Aerospace
USCR US CONCRETE INC 53.49 19 Construction
WD WALKER & DUNLOP 22.94 44 Finance
NOTE: Monday's closing prices. Stocks in bold letters are new positions.
To summarize, we are selling: BLDR,NSANY,TBI, and TSO
And, we are purchasing: DY,FRO,JBLU, and SKX
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FEBRUARY/MARCH ALTERNATE SELECTIONS
Ticker Company Name MarketPrice
Valuation Last 12-MRetrn
1-MForecast
Retn
1-YrForecast
Retn
P/ERatio
Sector Name
AHS AMN HLTHCR SVCS 28.95 -25.96% 26.20% 0.79% 9.50% 17.23 Medical
BMA BANCO MACRO-ADR 67.92 62.40% 21.92% 1.52% 18.38% 7.56 Finance
ERII ENERGY RECOVERY 6.39 -13.44% 95.41% 1.35% 16.22% 12.08 Industrial Products
HLF HERBALIFE LTD 47.78 -13.44% 40.12% 1.43% 17.28% 10.25 Retail-Wholesale
NAT NORDIC AMERICAN 13.28 -16.66% 31.62% 1.44% 17.41% 9.96 Transportation
NOTE: Stocks in bold letters are current positions. These stocks were included as a courtesy and are subject to the same rigorous research process as the primary selections. You should carefully research the stock picks provided in this newsletter for information on dividend payment schedules, mergers, stock splits, corporate actions, SEC activities, “acts of God,” etc. ValuEngine's proprietary models cannot always calculate the impact of such events on portfolio picks and all investment targets should be subjected to an additional human “sanity check.” If in doubt, use an alternate selection.
The ValuEngine View newsletter is the product of sophisticated stockvaluation and forecast models first developed by Yale Professor ofFinance Zhiwu Chen. The Valuation Model utilizes a three factorapproach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS); analyst consensus estimate of thecompany's future 12-month EPS; and the 30-year Treasury yield. TheForecast Model uses proprietary and well-established forecastingvariables derived from financial research studies. Short and long-term historic factors in the VE valuation model's calculation includepast-valuation levels of the stock and its recent price-momentumfactor relative to other stocks. These considerations, applied with thefirm-specific variables, allow the model to differentiate a stock acrosssectors and within the company's own business-growth stages.
The ValuEngine View portfolio is constructed by integrating both ourAggressive Growth—based on the Valuation Model--and DiversifiedGrowth—based on the Forecast Model-- Portfolio Strategies. Theportfolio has 15 stocks and is balanced once each month. Note thatthe newsletter is published near the middle of each calendar month.An equal amount of capital is allocated to each stock. The monthlyreturns are calculated from the closing prices on date of publication.The performance calculation does not include any transaction costs.
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RETAINED CALM CAL-MAINE FOODSCal-Maine Foods, Inc. is engaged in the production, cleaning, grading, and packaging of fresh shell eggs for sale to shell egg retailers. The company is the one of the largest producers and distributors of fresh shell eggs in the United States. The company markets its eggs primarily in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
50.66 12.56% 35.64% 1.62% 19.62% 6.80 Consumer Staples
NEW BUY DY DYCOM INDS
Dycom Industries, Inc. is a leading provider of specialty contracting services throughout the United States. These services include engineering, construction, maintenance and installation services to telecommunications providers, underground locating services to various utilities including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services to electric utilities and others.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
59.98 -29.07% 57.93% 0.81% 9.76% 17.85 Construction
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RETAINED EXPR EXPRESS INC Express, Inc. is a specialty retailer of women's and men's apparel in the United States. The Company operates retail outlets in high-traffic shopping malls, lifestyle centers and street locations across the United States. It also sells its products through its e-commerce website, express.com. Express targets women and men between 20 and 30 years of age. The Companyoffers its customers an edited assortment of apparel and accessories to address fashion needs across multiple aspects of their lifestyles, including work, casual and going-out occasions. Express, Inc. is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
16.97 -14.32% 22.44% 1.25% 15.06% 11.95 Retail-Wholesale
NEW BUY FRO FRONTLINE LTDFRONTLINE LTD's business strategy is primarily based upon the following principles: emphasising operational safety and quality maintenance for all of its vessels; complying with all current and proposed environmental regulations; outsourcing technical operations and crewing; achieving low operational costs of vessels; achieving high utilisation of its vessels;competitive financing arrangements; and develop relationship to main charterers.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
9.44 -50.00% 261.69% 1.83% 22.20% 3.85 Transportation
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RETAINED GPN GLOBAL PAYMENTSGlobal Payments Inc. is a leading provider of electronic transaction processing services for consumers, merchants, Independent Sales Organizations, financial institutions, government agencies and multi- national corporations located throughout the United States, Canada, Latin America and Europe. Global Payments offers a comprehensive line of processing solutions for credit and debit cards, business-to-business purchasing cards, gift cards, electronic check conversion and check guarantee, verification and recovery, aswell as terminal management. The company also provides consumer money transfer services from the U.S. and Europe to destinations in Latin America, Morocco, and the Philippines.
Market Price Valuation Last 12-MRetrn
1-M ForecastRetn
1-Yr ForecastRetn
P/E Ratio Sector Name
61.46 -48.08% 33.28% 0.46% 5.51% 21.98 Business Services
RETAINED GT GOODYEAR TIREGoodyear is one of the world's largest tire companies. The company manufactures tires, engineered rubber products and chemicals in facilities in numerous countries. It has marketingoperations in almost every country around the world.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
29.9 -5.16% 10.11% 1.37% 16.55% 8.93 Auto-Tires-Trucks
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RETAINED HA HAWAIIAN HLDGSHawaiian Holdings is a holding company of Hawaiian Airlines. Hawaiian Airlines is the largest airline headquartered in Hawaii. They are engaged primarily in the scheduled transportation of passengers, cargo and mail. Scheduled passenger service consists of daily service between Hawaii and Las Vegas, Nevada and the four key United States West Coast gateway cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco, California, Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon; daily service among the major islands of Hawaii; and bi-weekly service to Pago Pago, American Samoa, Papeete andTahiti.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
41.13 7.13% 119.59% 1.30% 15.71% 12.66 Transportation
NEW BUY JBLU JETBLUE AIRWAYSJetBlue Airways is a low-fare, low-cost passenger airline, which provides high-quality customer service primarily on point-to-point routes and is based in New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
22.39 -23.01% 25.93% 1.35% 16.29% 10.92 Transportation
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RETAINED JKS JINKOSOLAR HLDGJinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. is a solar product manufacturer with operations based in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province in China. JinkoSolar has built a vertically integrated solar product value chain from recovered silicon materials to solar modules. JinkoSolar's principal products are silicon wafers, solar cells and solar modules which are all along the photovoltaic value chain, with a global network spanning across Europe, North America and Asia.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
22.42 -14.84% 5.41% 1.49% 18.02% 5.35 Oils-Energy
RETAINED OME OMEGA PROTEIN Omega Protein Corporation, headquartered in Houston, is one of the nation's leading producers of edible fish oil, which is high in nutritionally desirable Omega-3 fatty acids andis used in a variety of food products. Omega Protein also produces specialty fish meals for use in livestock feeds, and fish solubles which are used as an organic fertilizer and in other applications.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
21.83 N/A 101.57% 1.31% 15.80% 12.57 Consumer Staples
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NEW BUY SKX SKECHERS USA-ASkechers U.S.A., Inc. designs and markets branded contemporary casual, active, ruggedand lifestyle footwear for men, women and children. The company sells its products to department stores such as Nordstrom, Macy's, Dillards, Robinson's-May and JC Penney and specialty retailers such as Genesco's Journeys and Jarman chains, The Venator Group's Foot Locker and Lady Foot Locker chains, Pacific Sunwear and Footaction U.S.A.
Market Price Valuation Last 12-MRetrn
1-M ForecastRetn
1-Yr ForecastRetn
P/E Ratio Sector Name
32.43 -71.21% 40.90% 0.67% 8.08% 18.85Consumer
Discretionary
RETAINED SKYW SKYWEST INCSkyWest, Inc., through its wholly-owned subsidiary, SkyWest Airlines, Inc. , operates one of the larger regional airlines in the United States. SkyWest provides passenger and air freight service and completes over 880 daily flights. Pursuant to a joint marketing and code sharing agreement with Delta Airlines, Inc., SkyWest operates as a Delta Connection in certain SkyWest markets. SkyWest entered into a marketing and code sharing agreement withContinental Airlines, Inc. Which allows SkyWest to operate as a Continental Connection in certain markets in and out of Los Angeles.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
16.12 -15.65% 8.63% 1.40% 16.86% 8.02 Transportation
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RETAINED SPR SPIRIT AEROSYSSPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS is the world's largest independent supplier of commercial airplane assemblies and components. In addition to its Kansas facility, Spirit has operations in Tulsa andMcAlester, Okla., Prestwick, Scotland, and Samlesbury, England. In the U.S., Spirit's core products include fuselages, pylons, nacelles and wing components. Additionally, Spirit provides aftermarket customer support services, including spare parts, maintenance/repair/overhaul, and fleet support services in North America and Europe. Spirit Europe produces wing components for a host of customers, including Airbus.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
46.13 -16.12% -8.38% 0.76% 9.05% 11.70 Aerospace
RETAINED USCR US CONCRETE INCU.S. Concrete Inc. operates as a provider of ready-mixed concrete and concrete-related products and services to the construction industry in the United States. The Company operates in two segments: ready-mixed concrete and concrete-related products; and precast concrete. The Company's ready-mixed concrete and concrete-related products segment produces and sells ready-mixed concrete, aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel), concrete masonry and building materials. Its precast concrete products segment produces and sells precast concrete products. Markets served by the Company include west Texas, northern California, New Jersey, New York, Washington, D.C., Oklahoma and the mid-Atlantic region. U.S. Concrete Inc. is based in Houston, Texas, USA.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
53.49 0.93% 79.50% 1.19% 14.28% 13.68 Construction
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RETAINED WD WALKER & DUNLOPWalker & Dunlop, LLC is engaged in providing commercial real estate financial services in theUnited States, with a primary focus on multifamily lending. The Company also offers service loans for life insurance companies, commercial banks and other institutional investors as a loan broker. The Multifamily and FHA Finance groups of Walker & Dunlop are focused on lending to property owners, investors, and developers of multifamily properties across the country. The Capital Markets and Investment Services groups provide a broad range of advisory, financing, investment consulting and related services. Walker & Dunlop's Healthcare Finance group provides debt financing for healthcare properties. The Company's Principle Investments include origination, underwriting, execution and management of commercial real estate opportunities across property types and geographies within the continental UnitedStates. Walker & Dunlop, LLC is based in Bethesda, Maryland.
Market Price ValuationLast 12-M
Retrn1-M Forecast
Retn1-Yr Forecast
RetnP/E Ratio Sector Name
22.94 -19.39% 40.56% 1.54% 18.61% 8.68 Finance
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