Jan 15 2020 BLSJ deck - WordPress.com · 29 New vs Resale Median Price $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000...

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Builders League of South Jersey Housing Outlook Wayne Norris, Metrostudy

January, 15th, 2020

2019 Media National


All signs looking UP for 2020!

111 straight months of Job Growth!!


Quick National Economic DataNational

Unemployment as of Dec 2019 – 3.5%

Income growth flat in 2018 - $63,179 ($553)

GDP growth for 3Q19 at 0.5% annualized at 2.1%.....steady

New job gains at 145,000 for December 2019 – Slowing but still growing

Consumer confidence about same as 2018 at 126.5. Historically high

Stock Market at all time highs

Home Prices at historical highs (but softening in some over-heated areas)


Unemployment Rate & Consumer Confidence IndexNational

3.0%

3.7%

4.4%

5.1%

5.8%

6.5%

7.2%

7.9%

8.6%

9.3%

10.0%

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

Unemployment Rate & Consumer Confidence Index

Present Situation Unemployment rate

Source: Conference Board, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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National Housing TrendsNational

Annualized Starts & Closings – Starts slowing (Low lot supply)

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Annual Starts Annual Closings

Lot Deliveries rising but we need more!

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Annual Lot Delivery Annual Starts

>50% of start activity below 400k. But supply behind!

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<$150k $150K-$250k

$250k-$300k

$300k-$400k

$400k-$500k

$500k-$600k

$600k-$700k

$700k-$800k

$800k+

Annual Starts VDL Inventory

Vacant Developed Lot Inventory & Months of Supply – Stabilizing!


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

VDL Inventory VDL Months

Future Lots and Annual Lot Delivery (Lot Deliveries Double since 2013 180k vs 400k)


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Future Lots Lot Delivery

Vacant Development Lot Months of Supply by State – NJ / PA Way Undersupplied


National Median price (New vs Resale)


$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

National New vs Resale Median Price

New Existing

• 2019 – 45% premium

• 2009 (Low) 28%

• 2016 (High) 55%

• 2016-19 dropped nationally


South Jersey Housing Market Wayne Norris, Metrostudy


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Nov

-09

Mar

-10

Jul-1

0

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1

Nov

-11

Mar

-12

Jul-1

2

Nov

-12

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5

Nov

-15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6

Nov

-16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7

Nov

-17

Mar

-18

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

Jul-1

9

Nov

-19

Source: BLS

South Jersey Unemployment Rate – Historical lows – 4% (vs 3.5 nationally)


Unemployment by County (BLS.gov)


Existing Home MarketSouth Jersey


Existing Home Market – Annual Resale ClosingsSouth Jersey

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ResaleClosings2005 – 39,768

2011 – 13,040

2019 – 28,833


Local New Housing TrendsSouth Jersey


South Jersey Map Breakout

South Jersey (Full): Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem

Burlington

CamdenGloucester

Salem

Cumberland

Cape May

Atlantic


Closings Rose UP 8% YOY ……………..First time since 2013!!

1316

1204

1084 11011073

1103

1375

1290

1206

1150

1095

1179

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19

South Jersey Annual Starts / Closings

AnnStarts AnnClosings

• TH Inventory is down 102 units in 2 years (-31%).• Total Inventory is 50% of 2015 • Closings exceeding Starts every year!! (burning through Inv)


Inventory by Stage – Very Stable

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19

Inventory

UnderConst (UC) FinVacant (FV) Models (Mod)


Model Home Trends Down 50% since 2014 – UP 2 this quarterSouth Jersey

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Models - We need Communities


Vacant Developed Lots South Jersey

YOY VDL: -12.1%

Equilibrium

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


VDL Supply

VDLInv (VDL) VDLMos


Lot Supply – It is coming! – When?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000


Future lots / Lot Deliveries

FutureUnits (Fut) AnnDeliv

• 2nd lowest annual lot deliveries• Future Supply appx 30% higher than 2014

• 1,941 future lots have improvements• 763 of these have streets going in


South Jersey by Pricing Segments

• Fairly balanced• Demand exceeds supply

• 200-400k• 86% starts in 200-400k• $300-400k supply


New Construction & Resale Median Closing Price South Jersey

$312,300

$334,600

$265,700

$325,000

$203,600

$217,000

$191,000 $196,400

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

$350,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New Resale

Premium: +65%


New vs Resale Median Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

SJ Median by Year

Regular Resale Closing Price Median New Sale Closing Price Median

2019 :• Premium 67%• New $336,500• Resale $201,900

2005• Premium 56%• New $317,700• Resale $203,600

Low – 2012 37%Hi – 2018 76%


New Construction Comparison State by State vs. South Jersey PricingSouth Jersey

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

South Jersey California Delaware Florida North Carolina Pennsylvania Tennessee Texas Virginia


South Jersey Closings by Year (UP in 2019 72 units)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

South Jersey Closings by Year

• 2019 – 1,341

• 2005 - 6,459

*2019 is TWM Oct 2019


2005 South Jersey Builder Rankings


2019 South Jersey Builder Rankings

Wayne Norris540 Pennsylvania Ave, Suite 205Fort Washington, PA 19034Cell: 215-678-9759Email: [email protected]


Jan 15 2020 BLSJ deck - WordPress.com · 29 New vs Resale Median Price $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000...

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