J.4369%20Sunday%20Times%20Jan%202013%20Report

Sunday Times

/Behaviour &

Attitudes January 2013

Opinion Poll 15th – 21st January, 2013

Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.4369

Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 916

eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3

percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Fieldwork was conducted over the period Tuesday,15th to Monday, 21st January, 2013

with interviewing carried out at the Behaviour & Attitudes Computer Aided

Telephone Interviewing (CATI) Unit at Milltown House in Dublin.

Interviewing was conducted across all 43 constituencies in the country with

households selected for interview by way of Random Digit Dialling (RDD).

The sample is split across RDD landline numbers and RDD mobile telephone numbers,

so as to ensure that individuals living in landline only households, mobile only

households, and households with both a landline and mobile telephone are

represented in their correct proportions.

4

Technical Appendix

The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile

of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates

from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical

adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in

support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking

variable election day turnout levels into account.

All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are

implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the

Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society

of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

Charted Summary

6

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government

and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

12th

Februar

y 2011

(f/w:

31st Jan

– 12th

Feb,

2011)

24th

August,

2011

(f/w 16th

– 24th

August,

2011)

2nd

October

, 2011

(f/w

20th

Sept –

2nd Oct,

2011)

18th

October

, 2011

(f/w

16th –

18th

Oct,

2011)

12th

Dec.

2011

(f/w 7th-

12th

Dec,

2011)

20th

Februar

y 2012

(f/w

15th –

20th

Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012

(f/w

11th –

17th

Apr.

2012)

23rd

May

2012

(f/w

18th –

23rd

May,

2012)

9th

Sept.

2012

(f/w

4th -

9th

Sept

2012)

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

21st Jan

2013

(f/w 15th

– 21stJan.

2013)

The

Government

5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24% 26% 22%

Micheál Martin 43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34% 42% 48%

Enda Kenny 40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38% 41% 39%

Eamon Gilmore 55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34% 29% 26%

Gerry Adams 40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39% 40% 43%

Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30%

Q.2

Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the

country?

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his job as (…….)?

7

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party

Support Levels

12th

Feb.

2011

(f/w:

31st

Jan –

12th

Feb,

2011)

24th

August,

2011

(f/w

16th –

24th

August,

2011)

2nd

October

, 2011

(f/w

20th

Sept –

2nd Oct,

2011)

18th

October

, 2011

(f/w

16th –

18th

Oct,

2011)

12th

Dec.

2011

(f/w 7th-

12th

Dec,

2011)

20th

Feb.

2012

(f/w

15th –

20th

Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012

(f/w

11th –

17th

Apr.

2012)

23rd

May

2012

(f/w

18th –

23rd

May,

2012)

9th

Sept.

2012

(f/w

4th -

9th

Sept

2012)

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

21st Jan

2013

(f/w 15th

–

21stJan.

2013)

Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12% 16% 19%

Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 17%

Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7%

Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 13%

Green Party 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Independents/

Others

10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9%

Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30% 29% 33%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

8

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support

Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

12th

Febru

ary,

2011

(f/w:

31st

Jan –

12th

Feb,

2011)

General

Election

Result

25th

February

24th

August,

2011

(f/w 16th

– 24th

August,

2011)

2nd

October,

2011

(f/w 20th

Sept – 2nd

Oct,

2011)

18th

October,

2011

(f/w 16th

– 18th

Oct,

2011)

12th Dec.

2011

(f/w 7th-

12th Dec,

2011)

20th

February,

2012

(f/w 15th

– 20th

Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012

(f/w 11th

– 17th

Apr.

2012)

23rd May

2012

(f/w 18th

– 23rd

May,

2012)

9th Sept.

2012

(f/w

4th -9th

Sept

2012)

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

21st Jan

2013

(f/w 15th –

21stJan.

2013)

Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 18% 23% 28%

Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 26%

Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10%

Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23% 19% 17% 20%

Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2%

Independent

/ Others

14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14% 17% 16% 14%


9

Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical

Note

Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the

evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the

period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland

publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of

voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we

have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they

intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of

swing from the last election results.

We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not

answer that particular question.

Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a

forthcoming General Election.

This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

10

Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

Adjusted figures based on:

All who state they would definitely vote

Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a

general election and who they voted for in the last election, in line with the result of the last

election.

Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in

last election.

2nd

Octob

er,

2011 (f/w

20th

Sept –

2nd Oct,

2011)

18th

Octobe

r, 2011 (f/w 16th –

18th Oct,

2011)

12th

Dec.

2011 (f/w 7th-

12th Dec,

2011)

20th

Februa

ry,

2012 (f/w 15th

– 20th

Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012 (f/w 11th

– 17th

Apr.

2012)

23rd

May

2012 (f/w 18th –

23rd May,

2012)

9th

Sept.

2012 (f/w

4th -9th

Sept

2012)

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

21st Jan

2013

(f/w 15th –

21stJan.

2013)

Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 22% 24%

Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 26%

Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11%

Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18% 14% 19%

Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3%

Independents

/Others

17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18%


11

Support for introduction of abortion – summary All eligible voters - 916

Q.8a

Q.8b

Q.8c

Q.8d

Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the mother’s life is in danger for reasons other than suicide?

Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the mother displays suicidal feelings?

Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the pregnancy results from rape?

Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatal foetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?

In favour of

Opposed to

Don’t know

Refused

87

59

74 80

10

34

20 15

2 5 5 4 1 1 1 1

Where Mother’s

Life is in Danger -

Not from suicide

%

Where Mother

Displays suicidal

feelings

%

Where Pregnancy

Results from Rape

%

Where Fatal Foetal

Abnormality

Precludes survival

%

12

Support levels for Introduction of Abortion x Demographics

All eligible voters - 916

Q.8a Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where

the mother’s life is in danger for reasons other than suicide?

Base: All Eligible

Voters

Total

Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins

ter

Munste

r

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural

Base: 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Where Mother’s

life is in danger -

not from suicide

87 87 88 90 88 84 92 84 86 90 87 89 83 88 86

Where fatal foetal

abnormality means

baby can’t survive

80 78 82 87 84 68 84 79 70 87 80 77 75 82 78

Where pregnancy

results from rape 74 72 76 84 75 61 81 71 57 81 72 73 67 77 69

Where Mother

displays suicidal

feelings

59 60 59 68 58 53 64 56 55 67 56 60 54 61 58

Support for

abortion in at

least one of these

circumstances

92 92 93 94 94 88 95 91 89 95 93 90 91 93 91

Support for

abortion in all four

of these

circumstances

51 51 52 63 52 38 58 48 37 61 49 50 43 54 47

13

Support for introduction of abortion where the mother’s

life is in danger for reasons other than suicide

Base: All Eligible

Voters

Total

Party Support

Fianna

Fail

Fine Gael Labour Green

Party

Sinn Fein Indep

endent/

Others

Base: 916 154 167 57 15 115 100

% % % % % % %

Where Mother’s life is

in danger - not from

suicide

87 87 85 98 96 86 86

Where fatal foetal

abnormality means

baby can’t survive

80 77 82 91 96 78 77

Where pregnancy

results from rape 74 75 66 84 67 79 74

Where Mother displays

suicidal feelings 59 61 56 73 71 59 60

Support for abortion in

at least one of these

circumstances

92 91 94 100 96 91 89

Support for abortion in

all four of these

circumstances

51 54 42 71 67 55 56

Q.8a Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where

the mother’s life is in danger for reasons other than suicide?

Commentary

15

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series Background

Fieldwork for today’s poll was conducted over the period 15th – 21st January, 2013.

Needless to say, the single most significant factor influencing public opinion during the

course of fieldwork for the poll will have been the measures introduced in the 2013

Budget, and their likely impact on people’s household budget.

While some economic indicators published over the last month or so – for example, the

levelling off of unemployment levels, signs of a stabilisation in property prices, healthy

export figures, appear positive – consumer sentiment remains depressed.

Indeed, a qualitative research study conducted by Behaviour & Attitudes amongst the

general public earlier this month reveals that many people expect the economy, and

thus their own financial wellbeing, to remain stagnant at best for the next number of

years, with at least one more austerity budget still to come.

While the Government has understandably been talking up the likelihood of a deal on

the Anglo Irish Promissory Note by March of this year, it is safe to say that the

implications of such a deal have been lost to the average citizen insofar as it may or may

not alleviate the growing financial pressures on themselves and their family.

16


Opinion Poll Series Background

As expected, there has been something of a backlash against the Government since the

introduction of the Budget. Labour Party figures have become noticeably more restless

due to what they construe as its leadership capitulating or ceding ground on core

element of party policy in and around the Budget negotiation process.

At a broader societal level, the fallout from the Savita Halappanavar case has been

enormous, and has had a profound effect on the populace at large.

The death of Ms Halappanavar has effectively drawn Ireland’s most morally contentious

and emotively raw issue from beneath the carpet where it has lain for 20 years since the

X case judgement.

The Government’s commitment to legislate in this area has created quite a stir, with

reactions ranging from guarded optimism from long term advocates of the mother’s right

to choose, to outrage amongst elements of the Pro-Life lobby, to concerns within the

Fine Gael party in particular as to how legislating for abortion in an instance where a

mother expresses suicidal tendencies can be achieved.

17


Opinion Poll Series

Background

It is within this overall context that voters responded to today’s poll.

The poll results reveal significant shifts in party support and party leader ratings, and

provide clarity as to precisely what the general public feels in relation to the availability

of abortion in Ireland under a range of potential circumstances.

18


Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

In summary, today’s poll registers the lowest satisfaction rating for the current

Government since it assumed office, a drop in personal satisfaction levels for both

Eamon Gilmore and Enda Kenny, and a corresponding uplift in the personal ratings of

Micheál Martin, Gerry Adams and Eamon Ryan.

Party support levels have followed the same broad pattern, with a significant drop in

support for Fine Gael, a recovery in Sinn Féin’s ratings from last November’s low of 14%,

and a continuation of the growth in support for Fianna Fáil which began to take root

towards the end of 2012.

As was the case in November’s Poll, the combined support for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin,

at 43%, is higher than that of the two coalition partners, which equates to just 37% at a

national level.

While the Labour Party support level of 11% is statistically unchanged since November, it

does represent a drop of three percentage points on its average party rating of 14%

registered throughout 2012.

19


Opinion Poll Series


Conversely, Fine Gael’s average rating stood at 33% during the first half of 2012, slipped

to 31% last September, 30% in November, to a low of just 26% today – just two

percentage points higher than Fianna Fáil.

Sinn Féin’s rating of 19% is on a par with the average 18% rating the party achieved

during the course of 2012, with the Green Party remaining in or around the three

percentage point mark.

Note that a very sizeable 33% of the population are currently undecided as to which

party or independent candidate they would vote for in the event of a general election,

suggesting that the voter’s mood remains volatile, and that today’s figures are likely to

ebb and flow as events unfold throughout 2013.

Fine Gael’s drop in support has been most pronounced amongst male voters, those aged

18-34 years, people in rural areas, as well as amongst blue collar workers and those

employed in the farming sector.

20


Opinion Poll Series


While a drop of four points in party support is significant, Fine Gael will take some

comfort in the fact that its support amongst white collar and professional workers, as

well as within the Dublin region, remains unchanged since our last poll.

Meanwhile, the growth in Fianna Fáil’s support continues apace, most notably amongst

males, those aged 55+, and amongst blue collar workers and those whose household

relies on state benefits.

The fact that Fianna Fáil is now breathing down Fine Gael’s neck in the race to become

the country’s most popular party will certainly encourage the Soldiers of Destiny as they

march towards next year’s local elections.

Overall Government satisfaction now stands at 22% - the lowest level recorded in the

entire Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times series.

21


Opinion Poll Series


Almost two-thirds of those expressing support for Fine Gael are satisfied with the

Government’s performance, while twice as many Labour supporters (53%) are dissatisfied

with the Government as are satisfied (26%).

Meanwhile, satisfaction with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach has actually increased by two

points amongst Fine Gael supporters, with Eamon Gilmore’s rating, down at an overall

level by three points poll-on-poll, has plummeted to just over one third of all Labour

supporters.

While the proverbial knives may, according to recent media reports, be out for Eamon

Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party, these figures would suggest that Enda Kenny

remains unassailable within his own party for the foreseeable future.

As mentioned at the outset, the personal satisfaction ratings of Micheál Martin, Gerry

Adams and Eamon Ryan have all increased by three or more percentage points over the

last couple of months.

22


Opinion Poll Series


Micheál Martin has registered the most significant of these increases – up six points to

48% since November, positioning him as by far the most popular party leader in the

country, leading the second placed Gerry Adams by five points.

Martin’s increase in satisfaction is evenly spread across the age groups and is highest

amongst male voters and urban dwellers. His standing has also improved most notably

amongst Fianna Fáil, Labour Party and Independent voters.

All in all, the future looks bright for Fianna Fáil and its leader – the challenge will be to

maintain this momentum if and when the economy begins to recover, and the backlash

against the coalition parties potentially recedes.

23


Opinion Poll Series

Support for Introduction of Abortion

Towards the end of the survey, respondents were asked whether they would be in favour

of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland across a range of different

circumstances.

The structuring of the question in this fashion was based on an acknowledgement that

public opinion is likely to be divided between those who might favour the introduction of

abortion as a fundamental right of the mother to choose on the one hand, and those who

may support its introduction on a more restricted basis on the other.

The results make fascinating reading, and represent the views of the electorate in the

early days of the abortion debate. It is assumed that the views expressed in today’s

survey will fluctuate once the subtleties of the various arguments for and against

abortion gain traction.

In effect, Irish people are currently strongly in support (80% plus) of the introduction of

abortion either where the mother’s life is in danger for reasons other than suicide, other

where medical evidence indicates that the baby cannot possibly survive the pregnancy.

24


Opinion Poll Series Support for Introduction of Abortion

A large majority (three-quarters of the populace) are also inclined to support abortion

where the pregnancy results from rape – a figure which rises to 84% of all 18-34 year olds

and drops to 61% of older (55 years+) individuals.

Support for abortion drops off considerably however where it may be made available in

circumstances where the mother displays suicidal feelings.

Thus, 59% state they would favour abortion in these circumstances, with the remainder

either opposed to it or undecided.

Further analysis of the survey data reveals that support for abortion in at least one of

these stated circumstances stands at 92% nationwide. Of even greater insight is,

however, the fact that a slim majority (i.e. 51%) of all Irish adults aged 18 years+ would

support the introduction of abortion in all four of these circumstances.

Political party and lobby group strategists will no doubt take note of these survey

findings as they frame their various arguments in the weeks ahead. They will also take

stock of the fact that support for abortion is generally lowest amongst Fine Gael

supporters and highest within the Labour Party support base.

Tabular Report

January TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

J4369

Page 1Table 1

Fieldwork : 15th - 21st Jan 2013

Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin

Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 869 947 616 2,092 1,329 618 576 213 62 464 303 1,184 2,732 2,191 541 194 424

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 869 947 616 2,092 1,329 618 576 213 62 464 303 1,184 2,732 2,191 541 194 424

UNWTD 966 468 498 310 366 290 449 484 33 273 247 270 176 675 289 159 172 57 18 121 101 337 772 628 144 55 120

Yes, eligible 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

94% 95% 93% 88% 97% 98% 95% 93% 100% 89% 97% 95% 97% 91% 99% 97% 96% 100% 84% 93% 98% 91% 96% 97% 93% 89% 89%

No – not eligible 153 75 78 126 24 3 65 87 - 78 23 32 19 137 16 17 21 - 10 14 6 84 76 44 32 10 46

4% 4% 4% 11% 2% 0% 5% 5% - 8% 3% 3% 3% 7% 1% 3% 4% - 16% 3% 2% 7% 3% 2% 6% 5% 11%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

44 5 39 13 11 20 3 41 - 26 5 11 2 44 - - 2 - - 18 - 24 30 23 8 11 -

1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% - 3% 1% 1% 0% 2% - - 0% - - 4% - 2% 1% 1% 1% 6% -


J4369

Page 2Table 2


Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood


Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Satisfied 707 501 205 194 259 253 353 250 103 211 174 202 119 461 246 107 350 54 9 30 61 96 673 566 107 18 13

22% 31% 13% 19% 21% 26% 27% 15% 41% 24% 21% 22% 20% 24% 19% 18% 63% 26% 16% 7% 21% 9% 26% 27% 21% 11% 3%

Dissatisfied 2,350 1,029 1,321 760 911 680 891 1,314 144 636 624 656 434 1,369 982 491 177 113 43 397 229 898 1,817 1,486 331 145 344

73% 64% 81% 74% 74% 70% 68% 79% 57% 72% 74% 73% 73% 72% 75% 82% 32% 53% 84% 92% 77% 83% 69% 70% 66% 84% 91%

No opinion 168 65 102 72 57 38 59 102 7 38 42 46 42 82 85 3 26 45 - 4 6 82 137 73 64 10 21

5% 4% 6% 7% 5% 4% 5% 6% 3% 4% 5% 5% 7% 4% 7% 1% 5% 21% - 1% 2% 8% 5% 3% 13% 6% 6%


J4369

Page 3Table 3


Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Satisfied 1,262 702 560 348 462 452 579 534 149 338 325 349 251 709 553 231 456 118 10 66 97 285 1,165 945 220 40 50

39% 44% 34% 34% 38% 47% 44% 32% 59% 38% 39% 39% 42% 37% 42% 39% 82% 55% 19% 15% 33% 27% 44% 44% 44% 23% 13%

Dissatisfied 1,791 817 975 581 711 498 661 1,037 93 504 459 499 329 1,080 711 352 65 84 38 353 183 714 1,343 1,104 239 117 294

56% 51% 60% 57% 58% 51% 51% 62% 36% 57% 55% 55% 55% 56% 54% 59% 12% 40% 74% 82% 62% 66% 51% 52% 48% 68% 78%

No opinion 171 77 94 96 54 21 64 95 13 43 57 56 16 122 49 17 33 11 4 13 17 77 118 76 43 16 33

5% 5% 6% 9% 4% 2% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 3% 6% 4% 3% 6% 5% 7% 3% 6% 7% 5% 4% 8% 9% 9%


J4369

Page 4Table 4


Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Satisfied 844 479 365 285 295 264 418 349 77 268 203 265 108 570 274 147 274 73 9 61 53 227 754 601 153 32 40

26% 30% 22% 28% 24% 27% 32% 21% 30% 30% 24% 29% 18% 30% 21% 24% 50% 34% 17% 14% 18% 21% 29% 28% 31% 19% 11%

Dissatisfied 2,079 990 1,089 593 849 638 772 1,181 126 546 550 589 393 1,134 945 420 206 115 39 349 230 719 1,671 1,389 282 121 264

64% 62% 67% 58% 69% 66% 59% 71% 50% 62% 65% 65% 66% 59% 72% 70% 37% 54% 76% 81% 77% 67% 64% 65% 56% 70% 70%

No opinion 301 127 174 148 83 70 114 136 51 70 87 50 95 207 94 34 73 25 4 21 14 130 201 134 67 19 74

9% 8% 11% 14% 7% 7% 9% 8% 20% 8% 10% 5% 16% 11% 7% 6% 13% 12% 7% 5% 5% 12% 8% 6% 13% 11% 20%


J4369

Page 5Table 5


Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Satisfied 1,545 855 691 437 560 548 659 753 133 424 390 485 246 929 616 505 299 97 24 154 137 328 1,363 1,113 250 56 96

48% 54% 42% 43% 46% 56% 51% 45% 53% 48% 46% 54% 41% 49% 47% 84% 54% 46% 47% 36% 46% 30% 52% 52% 50% 32% 25%

Dissatisfied 1,305 605 701 437 525 344 456 766 84 364 372 317 253 761 544 63 203 82 19 260 131 546 993 809 184 84 214

40% 38% 43% 43% 43% 35% 35% 46% 33% 41% 44% 35% 43% 40% 41% 11% 37% 38% 37% 60% 44% 51% 38% 38% 37% 49% 57%

No opinion 374 136 237 152 143 79 189 148 37 97 78 102 96 221 153 32 52 34 8 17 29 202 270 202 68 33 68

12% 9% 15% 15% 12% 8% 14% 9% 14% 11% 9% 11% 16% 12% 12% 5% 9% 16% 16% 4% 10% 19% 10% 10% 14% 19% 18%


J4369

Page 6Table 6


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Satisfied 1,394 849 546 490 623 281 545 722 127 396 358 413 227 796 598 265 186 90 5 394 124 329 1,205 984 222 52 118

43% 53% 34% 48% 51% 29% 42% 43% 50% 45% 43% 46% 38% 42% 46% 44% 34% 42% 9% 91% 42% 31% 46% 46% 44% 30% 31%

Dissatisfied 1,405 585 820 410 454 541 589 713 103 381 365 383 277 836 569 270 305 87 39 31 123 550 1,111 893 219 80 201

44% 37% 50% 40% 37% 56% 45% 43% 41% 43% 43% 42% 46% 44% 43% 45% 55% 41% 75% 7% 42% 51% 42% 42% 44% 46% 53%

No opinion 425 162 263 126 150 149 169 232 24 108 118 108 92 280 145 66 63 36 8 6 49 197 310 248 62 40 58

13% 10% 16% 12% 12% 15% 13% 14% 9% 12% 14% 12% 15% 15% 11% 11% 11% 17% 16% 1% 17% 18% 12% 12% 12% 23% 15%


J4369

Page 7Table 7


Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Satisfied 952 515 436 359 352 241 432 470 50 289 227 273 163 598 353 224 169 100 41 156 80 182 862 676 186 29 53

30% 32% 27% 35% 29% 25% 33% 28% 20% 33% 27% 30% 27% 31% 27% 37% 31% 47% 79% 36% 27% 17% 33% 32% 37% 17% 14%

Dissatisfied 1,363 669 694 395 507 461 522 734 107 372 398 369 224 782 582 252 230 68 7 189 135 482 1,077 887 190 87 178

42% 42% 43% 38% 41% 47% 40% 44% 42% 42% 47% 41% 38% 41% 44% 42% 42% 32% 14% 44% 46% 45% 41% 42% 38% 51% 47%

No opinion 910 412 498 272 368 269 350 462 97 224 216 262 209 532 378 125 154 45 4 87 82 412 687 561 126 57 147

28% 26% 31% 27% 30% 28% 27% 28% 38% 25% 26% 29% 35% 28% 29% 21% 28% 21% 7% 20% 28% 38% 26% 26% 25% 33% 39%


J4369

Page 8Table 8


Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,223 1,596 1,627 1,026 1,226 971 1,302 1,667 254 883 840 904 596 1,910 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,624 2,124 500 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,223 1,596 1,627 1,026 1,226 971 1,302 1,667 254 883 840 904 596 1,910 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,624 2,124 500 173 378

UNWTD 915 443 472 273 355 287 429 453 33 248 236 260 171 628 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 745 612 133 51 107

Fianna Fail 601 293 308 180 203 217 225 300 77 139 144 208 109 362 238 601 - - - - - - 556 487 69 34 2

19% 18% 19% 18% 17% 22% 17% 18% 30% 16% 17% 23% 18% 19% 18% 100% - - - - - - 21% 23% 14% 19% 1%

Fine Gael 554 328 226 134 238 182 292 183 78 152 135 136 130 312 241 - 554 - - - - - 543 469 75 6 4

17% 21% 14% 13% 19% 19% 22% 11% 31% 17% 16% 15% 22% 16% 18% - 100% - - - - - 21% 22% 15% 4% 1%

Labour 213 100 113 94 69 51 111 90 12 96 57 41 20 137 76 - - 213 - - - - 195 155 40 8 10

7% 6% 7% 9% 6% 5% 9% 5% 5% 11% 7% 4% 3% 7% 6% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% 8% 5% 3%

Green Party 52 14 37 34 16 2 26 26 - 30 17 4 1 39 13 - - - 52 - - - 45 40 5 5 2

2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% - 3% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% - - - 100% - - - 2% 2% 1% 3% 1%

Sinn Fein 431 279 153 189 194 48 126 277 29 100 131 124 77 221 210 - - - - 431 - - 388 353 36 16 22

13% 17% 9% 18% 16% 5% 10% 17% 11% 11% 16% 14% 13% 12% 16% - - - - 100% - - 15% 17% 7% 9% 6%

Independent/Other 297 175 122 47 129 121 107 189 - 106 67 73 51 199 98 - - - - - 297 - 271 234 38 3 23

9% 11% 8% 5% 11% 12% 8% 11% - 12% 8% 8% 9% 10% 7% - - - - - 100% - 10% 11% 8% 2% 6%

Don’t know 800 311 489 253 280 267 331 415 55 210 202 234 154 469 331 - - - - - - 800 581 376 205 85 106

25% 19% 30% 25% 23% 27% 25% 25% 21% 24% 24% 26% 26% 25% 25% - - - - - - 74% 22% 18% 41% 49% 28%

Would not vote 276 96 180 95 97 83 84 188 4 51 88 84 53 171 105 - - - - - - 276 45 12 33 16 209

9% 6% 11% 9% 8% 9% 6% 11% 2% 6% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% - - - - - - 26% 2% 1% 7% 9% 55%


J4369

Page 9Table 9


Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided

Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood


Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 2,147 1,189 958 677 848 622 888 1,064 196 622 550 586 389 1,270 877 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,999 1,736 262 72 63

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 2,147 1,189 958 677 848 622 888 1,064 196 622 550 586 389 1,270 877 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,999 1,736 262 72 63

UNWTD 608 328 280 180 238 190 294 290 24 171 153 172 112 418 190 154 167 57 15 115 100 559 485 74 24 23

Fianna Fail 601 293 308 180 203 217 225 300 77 139 144 208 109 362 238 601 - - - - - 556 487 69 34 2

28% 25% 32% 27% 24% 35% 25% 28% 39% 22% 26% 36% 28% 29% 27% 100% - - - - - 28% 28% 26% 47% 3%

Fine Gael 554 328 226 134 238 182 292 183 78 152 135 136 130 312 241 - 554 - - - - 543 469 75 6 4

26% 28% 24% 20% 28% 29% 33% 17% 40% 24% 24% 23% 34% 25% 28% - 100% - - - - 27% 27% 28% 9% 6%

Labour 213 100 113 94 69 51 111 90 12 96 57 41 20 137 76 - - 213 - - - 195 155 40 8 10

10% 8% 12% 14% 8% 8% 13% 8% 6% 15% 10% 7% 5% 11% 9% - - 100% - - - 10% 9% 15% 11% 16%

Green Party 52 14 37 34 16 2 26 26 - 30 17 4 1 39 13 - - - 52 - - 45 40 5 5 2

2% 1% 4% 5% 2% 0% 3% 2% - 5% 3% 1% 0% 3% 2% - - - 100% - - 2% 2% 2% 7% 4%

Sinn Fein 431 279 153 189 194 48 126 277 29 100 131 124 77 221 210 - - - - 431 - 388 353 36 16 22

20% 23% 16% 28% 23% 8% 14% 26% 15% 16% 24% 21% 20% 17% 24% - - - - 100% - 19% 20% 14% 23% 36%

Independent/Other 297 175 122 47 129 121 107 189 - 106 67 73 51 199 98 - - - - - 297 271 234 38 3 23

14% 15% 13% 7% 15% 19% 12% 18% - 17% 12% 12% 13% 16% 11% - - - - - 100% 14% 13% 14% 4% 36%


J4369

Page 10Table 10


Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

All voters excluding undecidedWill definitely vote



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Total 1,801 990 810 489 786 525 781 842 178 516 462 489 333 1,065 735 431 471 191 47 345 316 1,801 1,801

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 1,801 990 810 489 786 525 781 842 178 516 462 489 333 1,065 735 431 471 191 47 345 316 1,801 1,801

UNWTD 485 259 226 122 203 160 248 216 21 136 118 142 89 332 153 122 138 46 11 87 81 485 485

Fianna Fail 431 217 214 97 167 167 155 218 58 86 105 152 88 247 184 431 - - - - - 431 431

24% 22% 26% 20% 21% 32% 20% 26% 33% 17% 23% 31% 26% 23% 25% 100% - - - - - 24% 24%

Fine Gael 471 268 203 111 202 158 247 141 83 115 110 129 117 253 218 - 471 - - - - 471 471

26% 27% 25% 23% 26% 30% 32% 17% 47% 22% 24% 26% 35% 24% 30% - 100% - - - - 26% 26%

Labour 191 90 101 72 66 53 111 68 13 93 37 38 22 132 59 - - 191 - - - 191 191

11% 9% 12% 15% 8% 10% 14% 8% 7% 18% 8% 8% 7% 12% 8% - - 100% - - - 11% 11%

Green Party 47 15 32 28 17 2 29 18 - 30 13 4 1 33 14 - - - 47 - - 47 47

3% 2% 4% 6% 2% 0% 4% 2% - 6% 3% 1% 0% 3% 2% - - - 100% - - 3% 3%

Sinn Fein 345 229 116 129 176 39 100 221 24 80 121 100 45 175 170 - - - - 345 - 345 345

19% 23% 14% 26% 22% 7% 13% 26% 13% 15% 26% 20% 13% 16% 23% - - - - 100% - 19% 19%

Independent/Other 316 171 144 52 158 106 138 177 - 112 76 68 60 225 91 - - - - - 316 316 316

18% 17% 18% 11% 20% 20% 18% 21% - 22% 17% 14% 18% 21% 12% - - - - - 100% 18% 18%


J4369

Page 11Table 11


Q8A Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the mother’s life is in danger for reasons other than suicide?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

In favour of 2,818 1,384 1,434 925 1,075 818 1,201 1,399 218 795 728 800 495 1,684 1,133 525 468 209 50 372 255 938 2,309 1,875 434 167 297

87% 87% 88% 90% 88% 84% 92% 84% 86% 90% 87% 89% 83% 88% 86% 87% 85% 98% 96% 86% 86% 87% 88% 88% 86% 97% 79%

Opposed to 323 178 145 82 119 121 81 206 37 69 86 96 72 180 143 72 77 4 - 42 36 92 269 205 64 - 50

10% 11% 9% 8% 10% 13% 6% 12% 14% 8% 10% 11% 12% 9% 11% 12% 14% 2% - 10% 12% 9% 10% 10% 13% - 13%


60 28 32 17 22 21 9 51 - 16 20 6 19 36 23 4 3 - 2 13 2 36 36 34 2 6 18

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% - 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% - 4% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 0% 3% 5%

Refused (DO NOT READ OUT)

24 7 18 2 11 11 13 11 - 6 7 2 10 11 14 - 6 - - 4 4 10 12 10 2 - 12

1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% - 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% - 3%


J4369

Page 12Table 12


Q8B Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the mother displays suicidal feelings?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

In favour of 1,918 955 963 696 707 515 838 942 139 591 468 539 320 1,161 757 367 308 155 37 256 177 619 1,625 1,327 298 115 149

59% 60% 59% 68% 58% 53% 64% 56% 55% 67% 56% 60% 54% 61% 58% 61% 56% 73% 71% 59% 60% 58% 62% 62% 59% 66% 39%

Opposed to 1,098 551 548 283 422 393 403 586 109 236 314 323 225 621 477 216 233 46 15 146 83 356 856 701 155 44 186

34% 34% 34% 28% 34% 40% 31% 35% 43% 27% 37% 36% 38% 32% 36% 36% 42% 22% 29% 34% 28% 33% 33% 33% 31% 25% 49%


164 79 85 42 73 49 43 121 - 46 51 37 30 103 61 14 11 10 - 27 29 72 116 75 40 13 31

5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 3% 7% - 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 5% - 6% 10% 7% 4% 4% 8% 8% 8%


44 12 33 5 25 14 20 18 7 11 7 5 21 26 18 3 1 2 - 2 7 29 30 21 9 1 11

1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% - 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3%


J4369

Page 13Table 13


Q8C Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the pregnancy results from rape?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

In favour of 2,377 1,143 1,234 858 926 593 1,054 1,178 145 714 609 657 397 1,470 907 450 363 180 35 340 221 788 1,936 1,578 357 145 256

74% 72% 76% 84% 75% 61% 81% 71% 57% 81% 72% 73% 67% 77% 69% 75% 66% 84% 67% 79% 74% 73% 74% 74% 71% 84% 68%

Opposed to 658 347 311 123 237 299 198 362 98 112 204 192 151 333 325 140 156 27 17 69 57 190 566 445 122 14 72

20% 22% 19% 12% 19% 31% 15% 22% 38% 13% 24% 21% 25% 17% 25% 23% 28% 13% 33% 16% 19% 18% 22% 21% 24% 8% 19%


161 95 66 39 49 73 38 112 11 53 23 52 32 93 68 7 30 6 - 16 14 88 110 90 21 14 36

5% 6% 4% 4% 4% 7% 3% 7% 5% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5% 5% 1% 5% 3% - 4% 5% 8% 4% 4% 4% 8% 9%


29 11 18 7 15 7 14 15 - 7 4 3 16 16 13 4 4 - - 6 6 9 14 12 2 - 15

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% - 4%


J4369

Page 14Table 14


Q8D Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatal foetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

In favour of 2,582 1,252 1,331 893 1,026 664 1,095 1,311 177 768 673 693 447 1,565 1,018 465 454 195 50 338 228 851 2,107 1,721 386 156 276

80% 78% 82% 87% 84% 68% 84% 79% 70% 87% 80% 77% 75% 82% 78% 77% 82% 91% 96% 78% 77% 79% 80% 81% 77% 90% 73%

Opposed to 479 228 251 108 145 226 162 269 48 81 136 161 102 266 213 128 77 15 - 74 29 156 397 303 93 13 70

15% 14% 15% 11% 12% 23% 12% 16% 19% 9% 16% 18% 17% 14% 16% 21% 14% 7% - 17% 10% 14% 15% 14% 19% 7% 19%


126 93 33 23 45 58 33 63 30 32 26 34 34 67 59 7 20 1 2 17 21 57 98 92 7 4 19

4% 6% 2% 2% 4% 6% 3% 4% 12% 4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 4% 1% 4% 1% 4% 4% 7% 5% 4% 4% 1% 2% 5%


37 22 15 2 11 24 13 24 - 4 5 16 12 13 23 1 2 2 - 2 18 12 25 8 16 - 12

1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% - 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% - 1% 6% 1% 1% 0% 3% - 3%


J4369

Page 15Table 15


All in favour of abortion in the below circumstances



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger

2,818 1,384 1,434 925 1,075 818 1,201 1,399 218 795 728 800 495 1,684 1,133 525 468 209 50 372 255 938 2,309 1,875 434 167 297

87% 87% 88% 90% 88% 84% 92% 84% 86% 90% 87% 89% 83% 88% 86% 87% 85% 98% 96% 86% 86% 87% 88% 88% 86% 97% 79%

Q8b When Mother displays suicidal feelings

1,918 955 963 696 707 515 838 942 139 591 468 539 320 1,161 757 367 308 155 37 256 177 619 1,625 1,327 298 115 149

59% 60% 59% 68% 58% 53% 64% 56% 55% 67% 56% 60% 54% 61% 58% 61% 56% 73% 71% 59% 60% 58% 62% 62% 59% 66% 39%

Q8c When pregnancyarises from rape

2,377 1,143 1,234 858 926 593 1,054 1,178 145 714 609 657 397 1,470 907 450 363 180 35 340 221 788 1,936 1,578 357 145 256

74% 72% 76% 84% 75% 61% 81% 71% 57% 81% 72% 73% 67% 77% 69% 75% 66% 84% 67% 79% 74% 73% 74% 74% 71% 84% 68%

Q8d When the baby would not survive

2,582 1,252 1,331 893 1,026 664 1,095 1,311 177 768 673 693 447 1,565 1,018 465 454 195 50 338 228 851 2,107 1,721 386 156 276

80% 78% 82% 87% 84% 68% 84% 79% 70% 87% 80% 77% 75% 82% 78% 77% 82% 91% 96% 78% 77% 79% 80% 81% 77% 90% 73%

None of These 247 125 121 58 76 113 68 151 27 47 59 86 54 126 121 54 33 - 2 37 33 87 189 140 49 4 53

8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 12% 5% 9% 11% 5% 7% 10% 9% 7% 9% 9% 6% - 4% 9% 11% 8% 7% 7% 10% 2% 14%


J4369

Page 16Table 16


All in favour of abortion in the below circumstances - Combinations of Responses



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger

130 54 76 22 42 66 43 77 10 27 32 38 33 79 51 26 11 14 - 11 26 42 101 76 25 3 26

4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 7% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 2% 6% - 3% 9% 4% 4% 4% 5% 2% 7%

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8bWhen Mother displayssuicidal feelings

51 36 15 - 10 40 10 29 11 5 4 20 22 22 29 14 5 - - 2 - 31 45 43 2 - 6

2% 2% 1% - 1% 4% 1% 2% 5% 1% 0% 2% 4% 1% 2% 2% 1% - - 0% - 3% 2% 2% 0% - 1%

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8bWhen Mother displayssuicidal feelings x Q8cWhen pregnancy arises from rape

99 54 45 19 21 59 37 35 26 16 7 48 29 44 55 17 37 4 - 1 2 36 84 61 23 - 10

3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 6% 3% 2% 10% 2% 1% 5% 5% 2% 4% 3% 7% 2% - 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 5% - 3%

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8bWhen Mother displayssuicidal feelings x Q8cWhen pregnancy arises from rape x Q8d When the baby would not survive

1,657 808 849 644 642 371 754 808 95 543 410 449 255 1,036 620 324 233 151 35 236 167 512 1,395 1,145 249 106 131

51% 51% 52% 63% 52% 38% 58% 48% 37% 61% 49% 50% 43% 54% 47% 54% 42% 71% 67% 55% 56% 48% 53% 54% 50% 61% 35%


J4369

Page 17Table 16





Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8bWhen Mother displayssuicidal feelings x Q8d When the baby would not survive

75 34 40 17 23 34 32 43 - 23 25 14 13 41 33 8 20 - 2 3 5 37 65 42 23 9 1

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 3% - 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 4% - 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 5% 5% 0%

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8cWhen pregnancy arises from rape

86 50 36 23 42 22 48 38 - 18 46 17 6 52 34 21 4 - - 29 7 25 76 61 14 9 1

3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% - 2% 5% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 1% - - 7% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 0%

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8cWhen pregnancy arises from rape x Q8d When the baby would not survive

453 193 260 147 188 118 188 245 20 115 117 128 93 278 175 68 68 25 - 61 42 189 319 260 60 29 94

14% 12% 16% 14% 15% 12% 14% 15% 8% 13% 14% 14% 16% 15% 13% 11% 12% 12% - 14% 14% 18% 12% 12% 12% 17% 25%

Q8a When Mothers life is in danger x Q8dWhen the baby wouldnot survive

267 155 112 52 106 109 89 123 55 48 87 87 45 131 136 47 89 16 13 29 6 66 224 187 37 12 27

8% 10% 7% 5% 9% 11% 7% 7% 22% 5% 10% 10% 8% 7% 10% 8% 16% 7% 25% 7% 2% 6% 9% 9% 7% 7% 7%

Q8b When Mother displays suicidal feelings

15 13 2 11 4 - - 13 2 - 13 2 - 9 7 - 7 - - 9 - - 15 15 - - -

0% 1% 0% 1% 0% - - 1% 1% - 2% 0% - 0% 1% - 1% - - 2% - - 1% 1% - - -


J4369

Page 18Table 16





Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Q8b When Mother displays suicidal feelings x Q8c When pregnancy arises from rape

1 1 - - - 1 - 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - - - 1 - - - - 1

0% 0% - - - 0% - 0% - - - - 0% 0% - - - - - - - 0% - - - - 0%

Q8b When Mother displays suicidal feelings x Q8c When pregnancy arises from rape x Q8d When the baby wouldnot survive

18 9 9 5 5 8 2 12 4 3 9 6 - 5 13 4 7 - - 5 - 2 18 18 - - -

1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% - 0% 1% 1% 1% - - 1% - 0% 1% 1% - - -

Q8b When Mother displays suicidal feelings x Q8d When the baby would not survive

2 - 2 - - 2 2 - - 2 - - - 2 - - - - - - 2 - 2 2 - - -

0% - 0% - - 0% 0% - - 0% - - - 0% - - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - -

Q8c When pregnancyarises from rape

13 11 2 - 6 7 2 11 - 5 5 - 3 13 - 4 2 - - 4 - 2 9 7 2 - 4

0% 1% 0% - 0% 1% 0% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 0% - - 1% - 0% 0% 0% 0% - 1%


J4369

Page 19Table 16





Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Q8c When pregnancyarises from rape x Q8d When the baby would not survive

50 17 33 19 22 8 23 27 - 14 16 9 10 39 10 12 12 - - 3 3 20 34 26 8 1 14

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% - 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% - - 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 4%

Q8d When the baby would not survive

61 36 25 8 39 14 6 52 3 19 10 - 31 32 29 2 25 4 - 1 3 25 49 41 8 - 8

2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 0% 3% 1% 2% 1% - 5% 2% 2% 0% 5% 2% - 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% - 2%

None of These 247 125 121 58 76 113 68 151 27 47 59 86 54 126 121 54 33 - 2 37 33 87 189 140 49 4 53

8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 12% 5% 9% 11% 5% 7% 10% 9% 7% 9% 9% 6% - 4% 9% 11% 8% 7% 7% 10% 2% 14%


J4369

Page 20Table 17


Number of Situations agreed with



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

0 247 125 121 58 76 113 68 151 27 47 59 86 54 126 121 54 33 - 2 37 33 87 189 140 49 4 53

8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 12% 5% 9% 11% 5% 7% 10% 9% 7% 9% 9% 6% - 4% 9% 11% 8% 7% 7% 10% 2% 14%

1 219 114 105 41 92 87 51 153 16 51 61 40 68 133 86 32 46 17 - 25 29 70 174 138 35 3 39

7% 7% 6% 4% 7% 9% 4% 9% 6% 6% 7% 4% 11% 7% 7% 5% 8% 8% - 6% 10% 6% 7% 7% 7% 2% 10%

2 457 258 199 95 180 183 172 219 66 87 153 133 84 248 209 93 110 16 13 62 18 142 382 320 62 22 49

14% 16% 12% 9% 15% 19% 13% 13% 26% 10% 18% 15% 14% 13% 16% 16% 20% 7% 25% 14% 6% 13% 15% 15% 12% 13% 13%

3 645 290 355 189 238 218 259 336 50 157 158 196 135 369 276 97 132 29 2 71 49 265 487 381 106 38 105

20% 18% 22% 18% 19% 22% 20% 20% 20% 18% 19% 22% 23% 19% 21% 16% 24% 14% 4% 16% 17% 25% 19% 18% 21% 22% 28%

4 1,657 808 849 644 642 371 754 808 95 543 410 449 255 1,036 620 324 233 151 35 236 167 512 1,395 1,145 249 106 131

51% 51% 52% 63% 52% 38% 58% 48% 37% 61% 49% 50% 43% 54% 47% 54% 42% 71% 67% 55% 56% 48% 53% 54% 50% 61% 35%

Mean 3.01 2.97 3.05 3.29 3.04 2.67 3.21 2.90 2.67 3.24 2.95 2.98 2.79 3.08 2.91 3.01 2.88 3.47 3.29 3.03 2.97 2.97 3.04 3.06 2.94 3.37 2.59

Minimum - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.00 - - - - - - - - -

Maximum 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00


J4369

Page 21Table 18


Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Would definitely vote 2,124 1,103 1,021 550 920 654 921 1,003 200 587 532 608 397 1,248 876 487 469 155 40 353 234 388 2,124 2,124 - - -

66% 69% 63% 54% 75% 67% 71% 60% 79% 66% 63% 67% 67% 65% 67% 81% 85% 73% 77% 82% 79% 36% 81% 100% - - -

Would probably vote 502 259 243 220 134 148 212 241 49 109 143 154 96 243 258 69 75 40 5 36 38 238 502 - 502 - -

16% 16% 15% 21% 11% 15% 16% 14% 19% 12% 17% 17% 16% 13% 20% 11% 13% 19% 10% 8% 13% 22% 19% - 100% - -

Might/might not vote 173 51 122 83 58 32 63 105 5 60 44 36 33 121 52 34 6 8 5 16 3 101 - - - 173 -

5% 3% 7% 8% 5% 3% 5% 6% 2% 7% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4% 6% 1% 4% 10% 4% 1% 9% - - - 100% -

Would probably not vote

187 75 111 75 37 75 42 145 - 52 50 54 31 133 54 - - 5 2 18 18 143 - - - - 187

6% 5% 7% 7% 3% 8% 3% 9% - 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 4% - - 2% 4% 4% 6% 13% - - - - 49%

Would definitely not vote

191 84 107 77 72 43 38 153 - 50 64 48 29 133 58 2 4 5 - 4 5 172 - - - - 191

6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 4% 3% 9% - 6% 8% 5% 5% 7% 4% 0% 1% 2% - 1% 2% 16% - - - - 51%

Don’t know 48 24 24 22 6 19 28 20 - 26 8 4 9 34 14 10 - - - 4 - 34 - - - - -

1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% - 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% - - - 1% - 3% - - - - -

Mean 4.32 4.41 4.22 4.09 4.47 4.36 4.52 4.09 4.77 4.32 4.24 4.36 4.36 4.25 4.42 4.76 4.81 4.57 4.59 4.67 4.61 3.51 4.81 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.49

Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.00

Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00


J4369

Page 22Table 19


Q12 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,225 1,596 1,629 1,026 1,227 971 1,304 1,667 254 885 840 904 596 1,912 1,313 601 554 213 52 431 297 1,076 2,626 2,124 502 173 378

UNWTD 916 443 473 273 356 287 430 453 33 249 236 260 171 629 285 154 167 57 15 115 100 307 746 612 134 51 107

Fianna Fail 483 245 239 113 204 166 241 187 55 104 120 169 91 261 222 302 16 2 5 56 22 81 439 390 49 25 9

15% 15% 15% 11% 17% 17% 19% 11% 22% 12% 14% 19% 15% 14% 17% 50% 3% 1% 10% 13% 7% 8% 17% 18% 10% 15% 2%

Fine Gael 1,042 509 533 151 447 444 383 527 133 217 271 292 263 550 493 139 377 26 21 77 96 307 927 761 166 26 85

32% 32% 33% 15% 36% 46% 29% 32% 52% 25% 32% 32% 44% 29% 38% 23% 68% 12% 41% 18% 32% 29% 35% 36% 33% 15% 22%

Labour 333 189 144 94 117 123 157 175 - 140 77 92 25 225 108 25 28 128 6 49 34 62 297 281 16 8 28

10% 12% 9% 9% 10% 13% 12% 11% - 16% 9% 10% 4% 12% 8% 4% 5% 60% 11% 11% 12% 6% 11% 13% 3% 5% 7%

Green Party 47 27 20 36 11 - 26 21 - 28 16 2 1 28 19 - 18 5 7 - - 16 47 32 15 - -

1% 2% 1% 3% 1% - 2% 1% - 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% - 3% 3% 14% - - 2% 2% 2% 3% - -

Sinn Fein 290 169 121 144 110 37 90 183 17 85 83 84 37 165 126 30 - - 2 181 6 69 238 213 25 11 42

9% 11% 7% 14% 9% 4% 7% 11% 7% 10% 10% 9% 6% 9% 10% 5% - - 4% 42% 2% 6% 9% 10% 5% 6% 11%

Independent/Other 250 122 128 73 116 62 95 143 12 63 76 55 56 141 109 6 27 3 4 16 89 106 200 159 42 24 21

8% 8% 8% 7% 9% 6% 7% 9% 5% 7% 9% 6% 9% 7% 8% 1% 5% 1% 7% 4% 30% 10% 8% 7% 8% 14% 5%

Don’t know 392 144 248 149 131 111 167 190 35 117 83 118 74 240 152 54 72 9 - 20 37 200 287 208 79 32 53

12% 9% 15% 15% 11% 11% 13% 11% 14% 13% 10% 13% 12% 13% 12% 9% 13% 4% - 5% 12% 19% 11% 10% 16% 18% 14%

Did not vote 387 190 197 267 91 29 143 241 3 131 114 93 49 302 85 45 15 40 7 33 12 235 189 79 110 48 141

12% 12% 12% 26% 7% 3% 11% 14% 1% 15% 14% 10% 8% 16% 6% 8% 3% 19% 14% 8% 4% 22% 7% 4% 22% 28% 37%


J4369

Page 23Table 20


Q13 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?

All Irish VotersAll Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)



Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/

Ulster

Urban

Rural Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green

Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/

Others

Would not/DK

Would vote

Would

definitely vote

Would

probably vote

Might/

mightnot

Would not Vote

Total 2,446 1,261 1,184 609 1,005 831 994 1,235 216 637 643 693 473 1,370 1,076 502 467 164 45 379 247 641 2,149 1,836 313 93 184

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 2,446 1,261 1,184 609 1,005 831 994 1,235 216 637 643 693 473 1,370 1,076 502 467 164 45 379 247 641 2,149 1,836 313 93 184

UNWTD 672 342 330 148 287 237 322 322 28 175 171 190 136 445 227 123 141 45 12 94 84 172 593 516 77 27 48

Fianna Fail 483 245 239 113 204 166 241 187 55 104 120 169 91 261 222 302 16 2 5 56 22 81 439 390 49 25 9

20% 19% 20% 18% 20% 20% 24% 15% 26% 16% 19% 24% 19% 19% 21% 60% 3% 1% 11% 15% 9% 13% 20% 21% 16% 27% 5%

Fine Gael 1,042 509 533 151 447 444 383 527 133 217 271 292 263 550 493 139 377 26 21 77 96 307 927 761 166 26 85

43% 40% 45% 25% 44% 53% 39% 43% 61% 34% 42% 42% 56% 40% 46% 28% 81% 16% 47% 20% 39% 48% 43% 41% 53% 27% 46%

Labour 333 189 144 94 117 123 157 175 - 140 77 92 25 225 108 25 28 128 6 49 34 62 297 281 16 8 28

14% 15% 12% 15% 12% 15% 16% 14% - 22% 12% 13% 5% 16% 10% 5% 6% 78% 12% 13% 14% 10% 14% 15% 5% 8% 15%

Green Party 47 27 20 36 11 - 26 21 - 28 16 2 1 28 19 - 18 5 7 - - 16 47 32 15 - -

2% 2% 2% 6% 1% - 3% 2% - 4% 3% 0% 0% 2% 2% - 4% 3% 17% - - 3% 2% 2% 5% - -

Sinn Fein 290 169 121 144 110 37 90 183 17 85 83 84 37 165 126 30 - - 2 181 6 69 238 213 25 11 42

12% 13% 10% 24% 11% 4% 9% 15% 8% 13% 13% 12% 8% 12% 12% 6% - - 4% 48% 2% 11% 11% 12% 8% 12% 23%

Independent/Other 250 122 128 73 116 62 95 143 12 63 76 55 56 141 109 6 27 3 4 16 89 106 200 159 42 24 21

10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 7% 10% 12% 5% 10% 12% 8% 12% 10% 10% 1% 6% 2% 9% 4% 36% 17% 9% 9% 13% 25% 11%

Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES POLL QUESTIONNAIRE – January 2013

Good Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling from

Behaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.

We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than 10

minutes to complete.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all

results will be shown in aggregate form and for quality control purposes this call may be

monitored by a supervisor.

ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the

Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job

as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his

job as Tanaiste?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job

as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

J.4369

Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job

as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job

as leader of The Green Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Would not vote 10

ASK ALL RESPONDENTS Q.s 8a-8d – ROTATE ORDER

Q.8a Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in

circumstances where the mother’s life is in danger for reasons other than suicide?

Q.8b Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in

circumstances where the mother displays suicidal feelings?

Q.8c Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in

circumstances where the pregnancy results from rape?

Q.8d Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in

circumstances where a fatal foetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?

Q.8a Q.8b Q.8c Q.8d

In favour of 1 1 1 1

Opposed to 2 2 2 2

Don’t know 3 3 3 3

Refused 4 4 4 4

Q.9 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1

Would probably vote 2

Might/might not vote 3

Would probably not vote 4

Would definitely not vote 5

Don’t know 6

Q.10 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the last General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Did not vote 10

Q.11 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Yes, eligible 1

No – not eligible 2

Don’t know 3

Q.12 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 3

Thank You

J.4369%20Sunday%20Times%20Jan%202013%20Report

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Transcript of J.4369%20Sunday%20Times%20Jan%202013%20Report