IV. Fragility of the Hyperpower since 1990

A.Multiple facets of the hyperpower:1. Unrivaled power Collapse of the USSR in 1991 leaves U.S. the only power on a geostrategic level

Benefit from absolute supremacy in all forms of power military economic (produce 22% of global wealth in 2000)

technological cultural

Hyperpower StatusImplies new & heavy responsibilitiesAllows the U.S. to define their place

in the new world order Can choose framework for

interventionsMultilateralUnilateral

2. Dominant but Rivaled Economy

U.S. economy defends principles of free-exchange and deregulationU.S. becomes platform of global trade and prime

actor in globalizationU.S. must contend with strong rivals

European Union + Japan (Triad)Since October 2014, China’s economy surpassed the

U.S.Other emerging powers: India & BrazilRussian (under Putin) attempts to reassert their

world positionU.S. Trade Balance

Imports represent 22% of world total in late 90’sExports fell from 25% in 1950 to 9% in same periodHuge deficit in their trade balance, financed by debt

Cracks in the FacadeU.S. more and more dependent on

foreign oil suppliesSince 1998 more than 50% oil from foreign suppliers

Financial and budgetary weaknesses at source of unprecedented (since 1930) economic & social crisis in 2008

Borrow more and more from foreign creditorsMoney lent as long as foreign states confident in health of U.S. economy

China major investor in U.S. economy2013: FDI doubled compared to 2012 (mergers & acquisitions + greenfield projects)

Economic sectors: food, commercial real estate, energy

Can use their clout to pressure Washington

B. The US and the New World Order

1. The World’s PolicemenRenewing with idealism of WilsonU.S. intervenes on all continents in name of the international community – Multilateral InterventionsGulf War 1991 (Iraq invasion of Kuwait)Bosnian War 1995Israeli-Palestinian Peace TalksMultiple missions in Africa (Somalia,

Uganda, etc.)Interventions with UN or NATO support

Campaign to drive Iraq out of Kuwait.

International coalition, led by the U.S., launched Operation Desert Storm.

War ended less than six weeks later.

Persian Gulf War -1991

Armed ConflictThe Gulf War 1991Desert Shield (air strikes)

Desert Storm (land invasion)

Iraqi invasion of Kuwait

GEORGE H. W. BUSHFOURTY-FIRST PRESIDENT

1989-1993

President, George H. W. Bush, is known for assembling the United Nations to send troops to the Gulf War when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The operation known as Desert Shield, was to remove Iraqi forces from Kuwait and ensure that Iraq did not invade Saudi Arabia. President Bush claimed this to be his position when he said, “This aggression will not stand,” and “This is not a war for oil. This is war against aggression.” After weeks of air bombardment and 100 hours of a land battle named Desert storm, allied troops overran Iraq's million-man army.

                     

TIMELIINEAugust 2, 1990-Iraq invades KuwaitAugust 7, 1990-President George Bush

launches "Operation Desert Shield", sending American troops to try to stop an Iraqi attack on Saudi Arabia. First U.S. Fighter plains arrive in Saudi Arabia.

January 16-17, 1991-The air war begins. Bombers and cruise missiles strike at power plants and other important targets. Iraq attacks Israel with scud missiles. This air war lasts 42 days.

February 24, 1991-Allied ground assault begins. Iraqis leave Kuwait igniting an estimated 700 oil wells in Kuwait

February 28, 1991-Conclusion of war declared after 100 hours.

•34 countries contributed to helping Kuwait

• U.S. made up 73% of the 956,600 troops

• Soviet Union supplied Iraq with missiles

• Arab nations allied with the U.S.

“I can’t say enough about the Army and Marine divisions. If I used words like brilliant, it would really be an under-description of the absolutely superb job they did in breaching the so-called impenetrable barrier.

Absolutely superb textbook operation and I think it will be studied for many years to come as the way to do it”

Quote by“General H. Norman

Schwarzkopf, Jr.”

•1988, promoted to General and was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Central Command•prepared a detailed plan for the defence of the oil fields of the Persian Gulf against an invasion by Iraq. •Schwarzkopf's plan was used as the basis for Operation Desert Storm. •His operational plan was the "left hook" strategy that went into Iraq behind the Iraqi forces who were occupying Kuwait.•widely credited with bringing the ground war to a close in just four days.

General H. Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr.

AFTER THE WARAt the end of the 100 hour-ground war in the gulf,

America's leaders and military leaders basked in what appeared to be a success. Certainly in comparison with the gloomy predictions to the pre-war period, the military victory seemed good. Although American leaders remained unclear about their positions for post-war Iraq. They had failed to destroy Saddam's Republican Guard Divisions, which immediately set about destroying Shiite rebels in the south and they were uncertain about Saddam's potential to threaten his neighbours, America's allies.

Video: History Crash Course: George Bush and the End of the Cold War 4’ – 8’

The Oslo Accords 1993

an attempt in 1993 to set up a framework that would lead to the resolution of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict

first face-to-face agreement between the govt of Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Contradictions of Multilateralism

U.S. interventions linked to national interests & preserving U.S. dominated international balance

No U.S. intervention against Russia in the Chechnya conflict

against China in TibetHutu/Tutsi conflict in Rwanda

Become more and more wary of international organizationsResist constraints of intl bodies

Limits to U.S. international involvement

U.S. signs but does not ratify the ban on nuclear testing 1996Kyoto Protocol to reduce CO2 emissions 1997

Treaty of Rome establishing the Intl Court of Crimes against Humanity 1998

NATO assistance in Kosovo against Serbia 1999 without explicit UN mandate

2. Shock of 9/11Terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001 reveal

vulnerability of the U.S.1st time U.S. attacked on its own soilNew enemy, difficult to identifyAttacks U.S. hegemony & values

Immediate U.S. reaction Creation of Homeland Security + Patriot Act

2002Allows gov’t to infringe on civil liberties

invasion of Afghanistan with support of intl community and NATOWhere leadership of Al-Qaida is sheltered

by regime

Department of Homeland SecurityCharged w/ the task of protecting the U.S. from

terrorism.Definition of terrorism: “the threatened or actual use of

illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation”.

Responsible for the coordination & the direction of all antiterrorist activities of all public agencies operating in the field of domestic security.

Major operating responsibilities in five specific areas:1. Border & transportation security2. Infrastructure protection3. Emergency preparedness & response4. Chemical, biological, radiological, & nuclear

defense5. Information analysis

C. Temptation of Unilateralism1. The 2003 War in Iraq and its

consequences George W. Bush & neo-conservatives

choose unilateralism Crusade against the ‘Axis of Evil’

North Korea, Iran, Iraq Accused of harboring weapons of mass

destruction (WMD) & encouraging terrorism 2003 enter in a preventive war against Iraq

w/out UN agreement Military victory rapid Saddam Hussein overthrown

2003 War in Iraq divides intl community

Sparks dissension w/in NATO & the EU

Condemned by Russia & China + traditional U.S. allies =France/Germany/Canada + Latin American nations

Supported by the UK + new members of NATO (2004) in eastern Europe

2. American Power in Question

American presence in Iraq confronted by growing hostility w/in the population1st free elections 2005 + democratic institutions

U.S. unable to control countryTargets of attacks + face situation of virtual civil war

Chinese economy surpasses U.S. 2014

Obama’s PositionElected in 2008Aware of growing diplomatic isolation of U.S.Recognizes absurdity of imposing democracy w/

armsOpposes war & announces gradual withdrawal of

American forces in IraqLast troops leave in Dec 2011

Supports flexible multilateralismRenews w/ int’l organizationsRejects entangling alliances (slogan of isolationists)

Nov 2010, NATO decides to gradually withdraw from Afghanistan & transfer responsibility to Afghan police & military

ConclusionForeign policy has had to focus on

terrorism and what to do with nations that have harbored terrorists

Superpower status in a unipolar world still leaves the U.S. vulnerable both here and abroad to terrorist attacksAl QaidaISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria)

Video: Did 9/11 have to happen? (Noam Chomsky agrees with Ron Paul) 6’55

Empire: What and Where is NATO?

In which region(s) have most armed conflicts involving U.S. military forces taken place since the end of the Cold War?

Reading Assignments Part 4Articles in red priority reading (see blog): China just overtook the U.S. as the World’s Biggest Economy

Chinese FDI in the U.S.The Foreign Energy Policy of the U.S.

Highlights of US Foreign Policy