Islington Infrastructure Delivery Plan Part 1

8/14/2019 Islington Infrastructure Delivery Plan Part 1

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colinbu

chanan.com

LB of Islington

Islington

InfrastructureDelivery Plan October 2009Final Report

COLIN BUCHANANin association with

and Professor Janice Morphet


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Is l ingt on Inf rastruc t ure Del ivery PlanFinal Report

Project No: 17147-01-1

October 2009

10 Eastbourne Terrace,

London,

W2 6LG

Telephone: 020 7053 1300

Fax: 020 7053 1301

Email : [email protected]

Prepared by: Approved by:

____________________________________________ ____________________________________________

M.Bianconi, R.Blyth and J.Morphet, E.Humphreys, C.Geary J.Pounder

Status: Final Issue no: 2 Date: 22 October 2009

lbi infrastructure idp final edited 22_10_09.doc

(C) Copyright Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited. All rights reserved.

This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the commissioning party and unless otherwise agreed in writing by ColinBuchanan and Partners Limited, no other party may copy, reproduce, distribute, make use of, or rely on the contents of the report.No liability is accepted by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited for any use of this report, other than for the purposes for which itwas originally prepared and provided.

Opinions and information provided in this report are on the basis of Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited using due skill, care anddiligence in the preparation of the same and no explicit warranty is provided as to their accuracy. It should be noted and is expresslystated that no independent verification of any of the documents or information supplied to Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited hasbeen made


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Islington Infrastructure Delivery PlanFinal Report and Professor Janice Morphet

Contents

1 Introduction 11.1 The Islington Infrastructure Plan 11.2 The context for this study 21.3 Study approach 31.4 Methodology 51.5 Deliverables 72 Demand Framework 82.2 Growth Estimates 82.3 Location and spatial distribution 113 Social and Community Infrastructure: baseline and future needs 193.2 Early years provision 193.3 Primary education 223.4 Secondary education 283.5 Further education 323.6 Higher education 363.7 Primary and Acute healthcare 423.8 Adult social care 483.9 Open space 513.10 Leisure centres and swimming pools 593.11 Libraries 623.12 Community centres 654 Emergency services: baseline and future needs 684.1 Police 684.2 Fire and rescue 724.3 Ambulance 755 Utilities infrastructure: baseline and future needs 795.1 Introduction 795.2 Regulation 795.3 Electricity 815.4 Gas 825.5 Fresh water supply 835.6 Waste water treatment 865.7 Combined Heat and Power 876 Flood Risk 906.1 Introduction 906.2 Summary of evidence available 906.3 Baseline assessment 916.4 Key messages and identified gaps in knowledge 957 Transport: baseline and future needs 967.1 Introduction 967.2 Streets 1027.3 Underground rail 1107.4 Surface rail overview 1217.5 London Overground 1247.6 National Rail and other rail services 1327.7 Other public transport 1427.8 Understanding future mode share 1477.9 Conclusions 1488 Planning Obligations and CIL 152


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8.1 Introduction and context 1529 Partnership working 1579.1 Introduction 1579.2 Infrastructure delivery strategy 1579.3 Recommendations 15910 Monitoring and review 16110.1 Infrastructure schedule 16111 Conclusion 185Appendix 1: References

Tables

Table 1.1: Infrastructure types 2Table 1.2: Top 5 London Boroughs by population density (2007 estimates)3Table 1.3: Top 5 London Boroughs by employment density (2007 estimates) 3Table 2.1: Growth Figures 8Table 2.2: Dwelling Growth 11Table 3.1: Vacancy rates for childcare 20Table 3.2: Actual roll and capacity figures for 2006 to 2009 22Table 3.3: Primary school condition survey 23Table 3.4: Pupil projections and capacity of primary schools in Islington 2011-

2015 27Table 3.5: Projected numbers on roll (Islington Consortium) 36Table 3.6: City University Programme of Works 2009 37Table 3.7: City University: capital proposals and timescales 38Table 3.8: Recurrent investment in primary and community services 48Table 3.9: Sheltered housing providers 49Table 3.10: Extra Care housing providers 49Table 3.11: Identified programme commitments for open space provision -08/09-

09-10 56Table 3.12: Playbuilder indicative allocations for 2008/9 and 2009/2010 58Table 3.13: Age and refurbishment of public libraries 63Table 3.14: Spread of facilities in Islington 66Table 4.1: Police station services 68Table 4.2: Safer Neighbourhood Team (SNT) bases 69Table 4.3: Islington fire stations 74


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Table 5.1: Price control periods for utility companies 80Table 5.2: Thames Water: Demand Management and Leakage Programme 85Table 5.3: Schemes for water resources investment 85Table 6.1: Data sources 91Table 7.1: Flow-weighted average excess delay on the NOI by borough (average

of working days in May 2007) 107Table 7.2: Flow-weighted average traffic speeds on the NOI by borough (average

of working days in May 2007) 108Table 7.3: London Underground Infrastructure Schedule 118Table 7.4: London Rail Infrastructure Schedule 129Table 7.5: National Rail Infrastructure Schedule 140Table 7.6: TfL Bus Infrastructure Schedule 145Table 7.7: Mode share by distance travelled for Islington residents journeys-to-

work (2001 census) 147Table 7.8: Forecast 2026 mode share by distance travelled for Islington residents

journeys-to-work (mode share of walk and cycle both increased by 5%)148

Table 7.9: Forecast 2026 mode share by distance travelled for Islington residentsjourneys-to-work (mode share of walk and cycle both increased by10%) 148

Table 8.1: Developer contributions negotiated and collected by LBI 152

Figures

Figure 1.1: Methodology 6Figure 2.1: GLA 2007 Ward Population Projections for Islington PLP low estimates

9Figure 2.2: Islington population pyramid 2006 10Figure 2.3: Islington population pyramid 2026 10Figure 2.4: Housing trajectory for all dwelling types 11Figure 2.5: First 5 years supply major sites (residential, hotels and halls of

residence) 12Figure 2.6: First 5 years supply major sites (non-residential) 13Figure 2.7: First 5 years supply small sites (permission granted and development

started) 14Figure 2.8: Major sites for the rest of the plan period (location) 15Figure 2.9: Major sites for the rest of the plan period (quantum and phasing) 16


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Figure 2.10: Key strategic locations 18Figure 3.1: Location of primary schools by priority of funding required 25Figure 3.2: Location of primary schools with deficit / surplus capacity 26Figure 3.3: Location of secondary schools by committed expenditure 30Figure 3.4: Location of special schools 31Figure 3.5: Location of colleges by condition and capacity 34Figure 3.6: Location of universities 40Figure 3.7: 18-20 year olds in England 2007-2029 41Figure 3.8: Location of GP surgeries and hospitals 43Figure 3.9: Location of GP by list size 44Figure 3.10: Location of dental practices 45Figure 3.11: Location of parks and open space 53Figure 3.12: Location of Green space by value and quality rating 54Figure 3.13: Sports and leisure facilities 60Figure 3.14: Location of libraries 64Figure 4.1: Location of police stations by condition 70Figure 4.2: Location of fire stations by condition 73Figure 4.3: Location of ambulance stations by current condition 76Figure 5.1: Historic & Forecast Overall Gas Demand for North Thames Gas

Network 82Figure 5.2: London WRZ baseline scenario (dry average annual demand)84Figure 7.1: Islington key regeneration areas (Islington STS, 2006-2016) 98Figure 7.2: Journey to work mode share (Islington residents, 2001 Census)99Figure 7.3: Journey to work mode share (Islington employees, 2001 Census) 99Figure 7.4: TLRN and SRN in Islington 103Figure 7.5: May 2007 average AM peak delay (Monday to Friday working days

only) 105Figure 7.6: May 2007 average PM peak delay (Monday to Friday working days

only) 106Figure 7.7: AM peak period (0700-1000) passenger movements at Islington

Underground stations (RODS 2007) 111Figure 7.8: PM peak period (1600-1900) passenger movements at Islington

Underground stations (RODS 2007) 111Figure 7.9: AM peak period (0700-1000) passenger movements at Underground

stations outside Islington (RODS 2007) 112Figure 7.10: PM peak period (1600-1900) passenger movements at Underground

stations outside Islington (RODS 2007) 113Figure 7.11: AM peak period LUL line flows (RODS 2007) 114Figure 7.12: PM peak period LUL line flows (RODS 2007) 115


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Figure 7.13: Map of London Underground Infrastructure 120Figure 7.14: Annual station entries at overground rail stations in Islington (2007/8)

121Figure 7.15: Surface rail services in Islington 123Figure 7.16: All day passenger counts of London Overground services at stations in

Islington, April 2009 124Figure 7.17: London Overground all-day weekday link flows, April 2009 125Figure 7.18: Planned East London Line service (2012) 127Figure 7.19: Map of London Rail infrastructure improvements 131Figure 7.20: Great Northern 2009 peak-hour timetable 133Figure 7.21: The twenty most crowded train routes in London (Source: London

Assembly Transport Committee) 134

Figure 7.22: Pinch points on the rail network in London (Source: London AssemblyTransport Committee) 135

Figure 7.23: Great Northern indicative 2015 peak-hour timetable 137Figure 7.24: Route of Crossrail 1 (scheduled to open in 2017) 138Figure 7.25: Projected rail crowding, 2026 (Source: London Assembly Transport

Committee) 139Figure 7.26: Map of National and other rail service infrastructure improvements

141Figure 7.27: TfL Buses Keypoint data (AM peak 0700-1000 total passenger loads

leaving stops) 143Figure 7.28: Map of other PT infrastructure improvements 146Figure 10.1: Education 162Figure 10.2: Further education 163Figure 10.3: Higher education 164Figure 10.4: Healthcare 165Figure 10.5: Police 166Figure 10.6: Fire and rescue 166Figure 10.7: Ambulance 167Figure 10.8: Greenspace 168Figure 10.9: Sports and leisure 169Figure 10.10: Community facilities 170Figure 10.11: Transport (1) 171Figure 10.12: Transport (2) 172Figure 10.13: Transport (3) 173Figure 10.14: Transport (4) 174Figure 10.15: Transport (5) 175Figure 10.16: Transport (6) 176


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Figure 10.17: Transport (7) 177Figure 10.18: Transport (8) 178Figure 10.19: Transport (9) 179Figure 10.20: Transport (10) 180Figure 10.21: Transport (11) 181Figure 10.22: Transport (12) 182Figure 10.23: Transport (13) 183Figure 10.24: Utilities 184


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1 In t roduc t ion

1.1 The Is l ington In f rast ruct ure Plan

1.1.1 Colin Buchanan, in association with Capita Symonds and Professor Janice Morphet, hasbeen commissioned to prepare an Infrastructure Delivery Plan for the London Borough ofIslington.

1.1.2 Growth of the scale proposed in the Core Strategy will have a significant impact upon theBorough local infrastructure. The Islington Sustainable Community Strategy (2008) refersto the need of improving mainstream services and aligning service plans. It suggests that:

1.1.3 Improving mainstream services delivered to the people of Islington will be a crucial wayof overcoming barriers, ensuring access to services and opportunities for all, and

achieving the objectives of the strategy. The shared vision and priorities for action of thestrategy will inform the plans and strategies of the ISPs members who include the mainproviders of public services in Islington like the council, the NHS, police and educationestablishments, as well as community groups and business partners(p. 33).

1.1.4 The purpose of the Infrastructure Delivery Plan aims to support the production of theCore Strategy and identifies the future infrastructure and service needs for the Boroughfor the plan period up to 2025/26. More specifically, the Infrastructure Delivery Plan:

Provides a benchmark of existing infrastructure provision which identifies how wellexisting needs are met

Identifies future infrastructure requirements to support population change, housingand employment growth as detailed in LDF documents

Provides an indication of the potential costs and means of funding the required

infrastructure through public funding, developer contribution and other sources Sets out a roadmap for governance arrangements that place the balance on

outcomes towards the establishment of effective ways of working which will besustainable well beyond the life of individual projects.

1.1.5 The range of infrastructure assessed in the Plan is wide ranging. Information has beengathered for the services and facilities detailed in Table 1.1 below.


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Table 1.1: Infrastructure types

Sector Infrastructure Type Sector Infrastructure TypeWaterinfrastructure

Sourcing, storage andtreatmentWater distributionWaste water captureand managementdrainage and flooddefence

Energyinfrastructure

Electricity distributionGas distributionCHP

Transport Overground RailwaysCross RailUnderground

BusesRoads/HighwaysOff street car parksCycle and pedestrianfacilities

Healthcare Primary and secondaryhealth provisionDentists

Education Primary andSecondaryAdult educationFurther and highereducation

Culturalservices

Libraries and generalcommunity facilities

Emergencyservices

Police, Fire andRescue andAmbulance services

Leisure andSportfacilities

Publicly funded provision

Adult SocialCare Childcare Nurseries

GreenInfrastructure

Park and open spacesand play spaces

1.2 The contex t fo r th is s tudy

London Plan

1.2.1 The adopted London Plan (consolidated with Alterations since 2004 with the mostrecent in 2008) sets out the broad development strategy for London. The Plan makes the

following provision for housing development in Islington - 11,600 units from 2007/8 to2016/17. These figures are currently being reviewed as part of the London HousingCapacity/Strategic Land Availability Assessment which will inform the publication of thenew version of the London Plan.

1.2.2 The existing London Plan identifies a number of Areas for Intensification, which includesparts of Islington and neighbouring boroughs. Local authorities in London are expected toexploit their public transport accessibility and potential for increases in residential,employment and other uses, through higher densities and more mixed and intensive use.These areas include:

Arsenal/Holloway (Islington) Farringdon/Smithfield (Islington/City of London)

Holborn (Camden/City of London)


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Haringey Heartlands (Haringey).

1.2.3 The London Plan also includes Opportunity Areas which are capable of accommodatingsubstantial new jobs or homes. These areas are likely to accommodate approximately5,000 jobs and 2,500 homes and related infrastructure (i.e. local shops, leisure facilitiesand schools, health and social care facilities and services. In Islington and neighbouringboroughs, those areas encompass:

Kings Cross (Camden and Islington) Euston (Camden) Tottenham Court Road (Camden) City Fringe (including City Road Basin and EC1 New Deal for Communities Area).

1.2.4 Other regeneration areas within Islington include Angel Town Centre, Highbury Cornerand the area around Archway station and the area around Finsbury Park station.

1.2.5 Of all the boroughs in the GLA area, the pressures on the transport network in Islingtonare among the most intense, and they are set to increase over the next few decades.Tables 1 and 2 indicate that by 2007, Islington had the second highest overall populationdensity and the third highest employment density in the capital.

Table 1.2: Top 5 London Boroughs by population density (2007 estimates)

Rank Local authorityEstimated 2007

populationArea(km

2)

Populationdensity

1 Kensington and Chelsea 178,600 12.4 14,415

2 Islington 187,800 14.9 12,638

3 Hackney 209,700 19.1 10,9994 Camden 231,900 21.8 10,640

5 Westminster 234,100 22.0 10,627

Table 1.3: Top 5 London Boroughs by employment density (2007 estimates)

Rank Local authorityEstimated 2007employee jobs

Area(km

2)

Jobdensity

1 City of London 307,127 3.2 97,414

2 Westminster 576,794 22.0 26,184

3 Islington 184,039 14.9 12,385

4 Camden 263,518 21.8 12,090

5 Tower Hamlets 198,797 21.6 9,218

1.2.6 The Islingtons Sustainable Transport Strategy (STS) indicates that the average densityof new housing developments within the Borough is now nearly double the currentdensity of 56 dwellings per hectare.

1.3 St udy approach

1.3.1 The recent changes to PPS12 (Local Spatial Planning) make it clear that LDFs anddevelopment management processes need to identify, and where possible to deliver,

economic, social and green infrastructure both for the existing areas and for new


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development in order to met the longer term requirements of the area as envisioned inthe Sustainable Community Strategy (SCS).

1.3.2 In order to achieve a sound Core Strategy, LB Islington will need to meet the Tests ofSoundness of the Core Strategy as set out in PPS 12 (para 4.44). One of these iseffectiveness which includes:

Deliverability (para 4.45) Flexibility; and (para 4.46) Monitoring (para 4.47)

1.3.3 The Planning Inspectorate (PINS) has provided a checklist of questions that Inspectorswill be considering in the Examination by an Independent person. Those questions in theTest of Soundness which relate to delivery include:

Have the infrastructure implications of the strategy/policies been clearly identified?

Are the delivery mechanisms and timescales for implementation of the policiesclearly identified? Is it clear who is going to deliver the required infrastructure and does the timing of

the provision complement the timescale of the strategy/policies? Is it clear who is intended to implement each part of the strategy/DPD? Where the

actions are outside the direct control of the LPA is there evidence that there is thenecessary commitment from the relevant organisation to the implementation of thepolicies?

Does the DPD reflect the concept of spatial planning? Does it go beyond traditionalland use planning by bringing together and integrating policies for the developmentand the use of land with other policies and programmes from a variety ofagencies/organisations that influence the nature of places and how they function?

1.3.4 The deliverability test requires that local agencies and bodies are signed up to thedelivery of the infrastructure that has been identified and that they are committed tofunding in through their own capital programmes. Through our research and stakeholderconsultation the study team has sought to confirm the full range of existing fundingcommitments and establish the degree to which providers themselves have forecastlonger term demand associated with population change and new growth, and planned forit.

1.3.5 The conventional approach to infrastructure planning is to prepare a list of infrastructurerequired over the plan period usually 20 years and attempt to ascertain how much ofthat infrastructure could be funded from conventional funding streams, on the assumptionthat those needs and funding streams remain unaltered for the 20 year period. In ourview, this approach is unrealistic.

1.3.6 In reality, infrastructure schedules can only be fully worked up in detail for years 1-5 of aDevelopment Plan. Longer term requirements for years 6-15 can be included wherefunding has been agreed (e.g. waste management facilities, transport infrastructure andflood defences). The Infrastructure Delivery Plan should set out the governanceapproaches to developing and delivering infrastructure requirements; providingconfidence that the relevant providers are signed up to working alongside the localplanning authority to deliver identified needs.

1.3.7 This approach is more realistic and represents an acknowledgement that:

Many models of service and infrastructure delivery will change a number of timesover the period covered by an LDF e.g. health, fire and rescue, education etc; a

detailed 15-20 year infrastructure programme is not realistic


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Static infrastructure studies do not develop skills and build capacity withinauthorities for managing infrastructure planning and delivery

A static infrastructure schedule will inevitably be out of date on the day that it ispublished

It is important to provide certainty in relation to what will be delivered in years 1-5,in terms of costed schedules of commitment.

1.3.8 One of the key outcomes of the project is therefore to establish ways in whichinfrastructure planning methods and skills are embedded as a mainstream activity withinthe local planning authority alongside effective governance arrangements to ensureongoing and cross-sectoral participation by all relevant local infrastructure providers.

1.4 Methodology

1.4.1 The preparation of an Infrastructure Delivery Plan for LB Islington provides an opportunity

to bring about a coordinative policy mechanism capable of identifying the keyinfrastructure needs and to link them to existing and potential additional funding streams.

1.4.2 The brief for the study asked consultants to deliver two key outputs: Task A required theappointed team to assess Islington current infrastructure needs but also those that stemfrom the pattern and distribution of growth as set out in the draft core strategy.

1.4.3 Building on Task A, Task B required the consultant team to prepare an Infrastructure Planlooking at infrastructure delivery, and more specifically at the potential means ofremedying anticipated shortfalls in infrastructure provision, the scope for joint provision ofinfrastructure, the cost of facilities, sources of funding, priorities for investment and amonitoring framework for reviewing an updating the Infrastructure Plan.

1.4.4 Accordingly, the programme of work was divided into two stages and associated tasks,some of which were undertaken in parallel. More details on methodology adopted areprovided below.


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Figure 1.1: Methodology

Task 1.1 Infrastructure Diagnostic

Task 1.2 Baseline current serviceprovision

Social

&Commu

nity

RoadsRail

UtilitiesICT

STAGE 1:BASELINEANDFUTURENEEDS

Task 1.3 Future needsassessment: identify committed

expenditure and projectsIdentify additional infrastructure

needed

Task 1.4 Cost future infrastructureneeds

Task Outcomes

Task 2.1 Review of public fundingsources

Task 2.2 Review of developercontributions and CIL

GIS layers showing existing levelsof deficits and spare capacity andconditions of facilities by service

agreed with local providers

GIS map showing LDF locationsfor growth

GIS map showing committedexpenditure

Infrastructure schedule in 5 yearstranches

Multi-layered heat maps

Add costs to scheduleProduce a note explaining

methodology adopted

Validation of scheduleIdentification of opportunities for

joint funding

Likely funding available from s.106Procedural road map to move from

a tariff approach to CIL

List of service standardsGap analysis of existing evidence

Review of datasets used byservice providers

List of overall scale of publicfunding available by infrastructure

type

Task 2.3 Joint funding anddelivery: workshops

Task 2.4 Monitoring framework A proforma for annual monitoring

STAGE 2:IMPLEMENTATIONAND DELIVERY


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1.5 Deliverables

1.5.1 The key outcomes, forming part of this commission comprise the following:

A policy position paper which defines the magnitude of demand, the scale ofinvestment required and implications for the activities of the LB of Islington, itsdelivery partners and other agencies.

An Infrastructure Delivery Plan details how and where population and employmentgrowth trigger the need for additional infrastructure, its capital costs and relateddelivery strategy.

A GIS database showing locations, conditions and levels of capacity (where madeavailable by service providers) for individual components of infrastructure and/orfacilities.

A series of infrastructure schedules (Excel spreadsheet) detailing future capitalcommitments, the phasing of the various schemes, capital costs (where made

available by service providers), estimated revenue expenditure and lead agenciesresponsible for their delivery.

1.5.2 In addition, an updated list of contacts for each service/infrastructure provider, detailingkey staff in charge of the management of estates and facilities will be delivered to theclient group once the commission is completed.

1.5.3 The draft final Infrastructure Delivery Plan follows on from the inception report whichdetailed the findings of the diagnostic analysis and the policy position paper, whichsummarised the key findings from Stage 1 to inform the draft Core Strategy

1.5.4 The Plan is structured as follows:

Section 2 provides an overview of the quantum and distribution of the expected

growth in terms of demographic change, population growth forecasts, residentialand employment development.

Section 3 - 7 are organised thematically, by infrastructure type and provides asupply side assessment of infrastructure which considers any geographicalvariation in existing provision, and comments on committed proposals to increasecapacity. These also provide high level estimates of infrastructure needs based onproposed levels of population growth.

Section 8 provides an assessment of the potential implications of moving from theexisting approach to the collection and use of developer contributions (using s.106)to the implementation of a Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL).

Section 9 focuses on the delivery strategy and possible governancearrangements.

Section 10 provides a series of infrastructure schedules that can be used to

monitor and review infrastructure delivery and implementation. Section 11 identifies key issues from all chapters. Appendix 1 contains a list of the documents used.


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2 Demand Fram ew ork

2.1.1 In order to understand the future requirements for infrastructure provision it is essential toassess the impact of demographic change and anticipated levels of development, in thecontext of current infrastructure deficits and surpluses. The Plan identifies the impact ofboth residential and commercial development on the projected demand for relevantInfrastructure items.

2.2 Grow th Es t imat es

2.2.1 The assumptions on anticipated changes in population, commercial floor space anddwellings that have been used for the purpose of the analysis are summarised below:

Table 2.1: Growth Figures

Category Existing Growth to2026

Growth ofExisting

Dataset

Population 191,302peopleresident

213,000peopleresident

11% GLA 2007 Round ofDemographic Projections- PLP Low, Source ofdata: ONS mid-2001population estimates

Employment 191,766 224,000 27% Islington EmploymentStudy update (2008)

Dwellings(units)

88,537 113,118 28% London Plan (factored upto 2026)

2.2.2 Although estimates on future demand for social and community infrastructure can bebased on pro-rata calculation against population and household growth, it is important toacknowledge that this simple methodology has its limitations.

2.2.3 Most social and community infrastructure serves local needs. Hence it is possible toproduce a quantitative assessment of need relative to population. However, transportinfrastructure and social and community infrastructure that has a more strategiccatchment and also infrastructure that is provided by the private sector, is more difficult toassess and to quantify shortfalls/oversupply.

2.2.4 The relationship of this type of infrastructure with population distribution is more complex.

Hospitals, higher and further education and transport infrastructure are seen as keyexamples of this as the manner in which demand is met (relative to increasing populationgrowth) is not necessarily bound by existing facilities and the manner in which servicesare provided within the Borough. For example Whittington and Moorfields Eye Hospitalsserve a regional catchment and so have the capacity to absorb all predicted populationgrowth in Islington. But it would not be necessarily appropriate or desirable for newpopulation to use that facility; needs may be better met locally or in new polysystems. Inaddition, journey/travel patterns and mode choice react to the capacity of existingconditions, i.e. they are self moderating. This does not mean that failing to provide moreinfrastructure is a viable or recommended option, but is a recognition of the limitations ofapplying ratios to facilities and using simplistic models to assess infrastructure shortfalls.

2.2.5 Furthermore, the relatively small geographical area covered by the Borough and its

location, stretching from the City of London in the south to the borders of Haringey and


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Camden in the north and west, means that there is very little infrastructure that is notused by residents of neighbouring boroughs and vice versa.

2.2.6 Here, it is critical that Local Authorities identify the common geography that enablescooperation and joint delivery mechanisms which could be with adjoining boroughs orbased on service provider geography.

Figure 2.1: GLA 2007 Ward Population Projections for Islington PLP lowestimates

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Year

Population

('000s)

2.2.7 For some services such as education and adult social care, the changes in specific agegroups of the population have a direct impact on service provision. Figure 2.2 and Figure2.3 show the change in population structure in Islington from 2006 to 2026 (based onONS data).


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Figure 2.2: Islington population pyramid 2006

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Age

% of population

Male Female

Source: ONS sub-national population projections (based on 2006 mid-year population estimates)

Figure 2.3: Islington population pyramid 2026

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Age

% of population

Male Female

Source: ONS sub-national population projections (based on 2006 mid-year population estimates)


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2.2.8 A comparison of the two population pyramids shows a gradual ageing of the population inIslington. For example, it is noticeable that the proportionate size of the 25-39 cohortcontracts to 2026 whilst the 60-64 cohort expands.

2.2.9 Additional information on dwelling growth is provided below.

Table 2.2: Dwelling Growth

Source Lower Limit Upper LimitExtant permissionsNov 08

6,735 6735

Major scheme areasDirection of Travel

5400 6200

Windfalls outside majorscheme areas

unknown unknown

Target 2008-2016 10440 10,600

Assumed target 2016-2025

11,600 11,600

Figure 2.4: Housing trajectory for all dwelling types

Source: Islington Annual Monitoring Report (2009)

2.3 Locat ion and spa t ia l d is t r ibu t ion

2.3.1 The Figures below show where future development is expected to take place. Figure 2.5,Figure 2.6 and Figure 2.7 consider the first five years supply (2008-2013), respectively formajor sites (residential and non-residential) and for small sites ( 0.25 ha). Figure 2.8 andFigure 2.9 show location, quantum and phasing of growth within major residentialredevelopment sites for the period between 2014 and 2026 as included in the draftLondon Housing Capacity/Strategic Land Availability Assessment. In this respect, it isimportant to note that major residential redevelopment is expected to cater for only for50% of growth between 2014 and 2026, with the remainder expected to emerge from

windfall sites.


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Figure 2.5: First 5 years supply major sites (residential, hotels and halls ofresidence)


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Figure 2.6: First 5 years supply major sites (non-residential)


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Figure 2.7: First 5 years supply small sites (permission granted anddevelopment started)


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Figure 2.8: Major sites for the rest of the plan period (location)


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Figure 2.9: Major sites for the rest of the plan period (quantum and phasing)


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2.3.2 From the figures above, it is clear that housing and employment growth is expected to bedistributed unevenly across the Borough and the Core Strategy will need to reflect theeffect specific development will have on different neighbourhoods. To this end theCouncil has identified six areas of the Borough for which there are specific spatial policiesfor managing growth and change in the plan period.

2.3.3 Figure 2.10 below identifies the key areas of the Borough for which there are specificspatial policies for managing growth and change in the plan period. In the Core Strategy,each area is addressed in detail with a map supporting the policy text for each area. Theboundaries of the designations on the area maps give indicative areas for the relevantpolicy; they do notrepresent definitive boundaries.


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Figure 2.10: Key strategic locations

Islington Infrastructure Delivery Plan Part 1

Documents

Transcript of Islington Infrastructure Delivery Plan Part 1