Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes

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Is National Rail Policy onIs National Rail Policy onthe Right Track?the Right Track?

Reflections from CanberraReflections from Canberra

Assoc Professor Assoc Professor Brett HughesBrett HughesAssoc. Professor Assoc. Professor Brett HughesBrett HughesDirectorDirector

Curtin Curtin -- MonashMonash Accident Research Centre, Curtin UniversityAccident Research Centre, Curtin University

Institution of Engineers (Australia)Institution of Engineers (Australia)WATransport PanelWATransport Panel

February 2010February 2010

Curtin Curtin –– Monash Accident Research CentreMonash Accident Research Centre www.cwww.c--marc.curtin.edu.aumarc.curtin.edu.au

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OverviewOverviewOverviewOverview

Transport Challenges

Rail in Transport

Personal Perspectives

Accident Issues


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The government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short pphrases:

If it t it If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. p g gAnd if it stops moving, subsidize it.

- Ronald Reagan

Industry's view of the economy?

Th it ' i f th ?Curtin Curtin –– Monash Accident Research CentreMonash Accident Research Centre www.cwww.c--marc.curtin.edu.aumarc.curtin.edu.au

The community's view of the economy?

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Transport ChallengesTransport ChallengesTransport ChallengesTransport Challenges

CongestionFuel price

GFCFuel priceEmissions

greenhouse gases

Climate Change

Accessibility & Equity– greenhouse gases– NOx, SOx, etc

particulates

Accessibility & Equity

Workforce Attraction & R t ti– particulates

Transport DemandPassenger ( l ti )

Retention

Community & Business – Passenger (population)

– Freight (population and economy)

yExpectations


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Optimum Passenger TransportOptimum Passenger TransportOptimum Passenger TransportOptimum Passenger Transport

Density Conditions:Distance

Density

Heavy Very

Fast

Air (capacity)

Speed

Terrain

Light Rail

Heavy Rail

Fast Train

Wa

lk

Busor Ferry

Car

Distance

Car

Cycle


Source:Adapted from The Transportation Experience Policy, Planning, and Deployment.Garrison & Levinson, Oxford Uni Press, 2006

Distance

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Australian CitiesAustralian Cities

While all developed economies are challenged, in Australia impacts are greater…


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Perth’s Transport Future?Perth’s Transport Future?Perth’s Transport Future?Perth’s Transport Future?

B 2020 f P th it i ti t d1 th t By 2020 for Perth it is estimated1 that – population will increase by 13%;– road freight transport will increase by 34%;– traffic delays will increase by 28%;– congestion costs will rise by 69%

to $1.2 billion per annum.$ p

More people die from transport emissions th d h 2than road crashes2

Sources: 1.Estimating Urban Traffic and Congestion Cost Trends for Australian Cities


1. stimating Urban Traffic and Congestion Cost Trends for Australian CitiesBureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Working Paper 71, Canberra 2007

2. BTRE Report WP63: Health Impacts Of Transport Emissions In Australia:Economic Costs and Commonwealth Government Road Deaths Australia, 2008 Statistical Summary

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City Transport PerformanceCity Transport PerformanceCity Transport PerformanceCity Transport Performance

Our best transport 260%

290%

planning and policy gets us HERE!

190%

Australian CityHeavy Vehicle

Congestion Cost 40%

90%

gIncreases

1990 - 2005: 53%

2005 to 2020: 118%

40%


1990 to 2020: 234%Source: from BITRE WP71 data

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National Rail Freight PerformanceNational Rail Freight PerformanceNational Rail Freight PerformanceNational Rail Freight Performance

DARWINDARWIN

KATHERINE

Rail Share of Land Freight Transport

TENNANT CREEK

90%+

BRISBANE

ALICE SPRINGS

80%+

80%+TARCOOLA

KALGOORLIE

BROKEN HILL

PERTH

80%+ 21%5%

ADELAIDE SYDNEY

MELBOURNE5% 7%


MELBOURNE

Source: from ARA and BITRE data

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Passenger Transport Passenger Transport Passenger Transport Passenger Transport OutlookOutlook

Average Growth 2000-2004

Passenger Rail: 1.6%

Private road vehicles: 2.3%

30%

Changes in Urban Passenger Transport(increase from 2000, 2001‐2004 trend shown dotted)

30%

Changes in Urban Passenger Transport(increase from 2000, 2001‐2004 trend shown dotted)

Average Growth 2004-2008

Passenger Rail: 5.1%30%30% Private road vehicles: 0.3%

What are the reason for these changes?

- fuel price?- congestion?

20%

Passenger Rail20%

Passenger Rail

congestion?- population increase?- inner city living?- ‘green’ choices?

10%

Private road vehicles

10%

Private road vehicles

Transport planning

0%0%

Transport planning and policy is based on these forecasts.


0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: from BITRE IS31 data

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Land Transport EmissionsLand Transport EmissionsLand Transport EmissionsLand Transport Emissions

Australian Land Transport Emissions ForecastGgrams Australian Land Transport Emissions ForecastGgramsCO2

80000 There is more freight carried by rail,

than road.

40000

Passenger & Freight Rail

Road Freight

Road Passenger

40000

0


1990 2000 2010 2020Year Source: BTRE 2005

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Land Transport EmissionsLand Transport EmissionsLand Transport EmissionsLand Transport EmissionsAustralian Land Transport Emissions Forecast% change Australian Land Transport Emissions Forecast% change

from 1990

Articulated trucks150% Light Commercial Vehicles

Rigid and other trucks

Passenger

Passenger and Freight Rail

100%

Passenger and Freight Rail

50%

0%


1990 2000 2010 2020Year

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The Future of Transport EmissionsThe Future of Transport EmissionsThe Future of Transport EmissionsThe Future of Transport Emissions

Australian Transport Emissions Forecast

GgramsCO2 Aviation

Maritime222Mt(2050)

200000

Maritime

Rail (non electric)

Motor Vehicles

2050 Total Australian Emissions Target145Mt

(2050)

g145Mt(2050)

10000075Mt(2000)

If we continue what we’ve done in the past,by 2050 transport will contribute more than

0Source: BTRE 2005 forecast, extrapolated

by 2050 transport will contribute more than2/3 of the total Australian emissions target


0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

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Our Current TransportOur Current TransportOur Current TransportOur Current Transport Australian transport fuel use, emissions and transport infrastructure

are amongst the highest per capita in the world Nearly 1500 people die on our roads and another 30,000 are injured

and road crashes cost over $29.6 billion annually

Traffic congestion in cities costs more than $10 billion annually Transport emissions are responsible annually for:p p y

– the deaths of over 1500 people– over 4,500 cases of asthma and other sickness (but could be 40% higher)– cost of death and sickness by transport emissions exceeds $2.3 billion

annually annually

Personal transport times and costs are increasing as a proportion of available time and disposable income, contributing to family pressureand other social degradationand other social degradation

There has been no significant move towards more sustainable modes of transport, until the last four years

F l f h t d d


Fuel usage of passenger cars have not decreased

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Oil and Price VulnerabilityOil and Price VulnerabilityOil and Price VulnerabilityOil and Price Vulnerability

2001 20062001 2006


Source: Vulnerability Assessment for Mortgage, Petrol & Inflation Risks & Expenditure, Dodson & Sipe, Griffith Uni, 2008

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Cit A Aff t T t UCit A Aff t T t UCity Area Affects Transport UseCity Area Affects Transport Use

100

Transport Energy

60

80

40

60

20

City Area0

0 200 400 600 800 1000Ar ea


City Area0 200 400 600 800 1000Ar ea

Source: Cities, Area and Transport Energy. B Hughes et al, 26th ATRF, October 2003

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City Area is a major determinant of transport transport energy car use transport emissions

In principle, if population increases within urban boundaries no extra travel occursurban boundaries, no extra travel occurs

Australians are in love with their cars,,but they are more in love with their own land


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Our Transport Future?Our Transport Future?Our Transport Future?Our Transport Future?


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Our Transport FutureOur Transport FutureOur Transport FutureOur Transport Future By 2050 transport emissions will comprise more than 66% of By 2050 transport emissions will comprise more than 66% of

Australia’s entire greenhouse gas emissions target Transport congestion costs are increasing at a faster rate than

traffic is increasingtraffic is increasing heavy vehicle transport congestion costs will increase by an

additional 100% traffic congestion in cities will cost $20-30 billion annually by 2020

Road trauma will deteriorate road deaths are not decreasingroad deaths are not decreasing serious injuries caused by road crashes is rising deaths caused by articulated vehicles is increasing, serious injuries caused by articulated vehicles is not decreasing

Other factors such as health effects, transport costs and travel time are certain to increase


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R il D t i tiR il D t i tiRail DeteriorationRail Deterioration

CumulativeTotalNumber

Locomotive Age

Track

Rolling Stock

80%

100%

500

Diesel

Electric

Average Age

- locomotives, wagons

Signalling

40%

60%

250

AgeAus > 30

Years

Average AgeUSA 8 Years

Information- data, methods,

l i h0%

20%

0less than 5 years

6 to 10 years

11 to 15 years

16 to 20 years

21 to 25 years

26 to 30 years

more than 30

analysis, research

Organisational Capacitygovernment & railways 5 years years years years years years than 30

years- government & railways- staff skill & numbers


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Rail’s Energy and Environmental Rail’s Energy and Environmental Rail’s Energy and Environmental Rail’s Energy and Environmental AdvantageAdvantagegg

Freight Transport Energy Efficiency

Passenger Transport Energy Intensity

Source:Final Garnaut Report, 2008


Source: ARA Industry Report 2007

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Rail BenefitsRail BenefitsRail BenefitsRail Benefits Passenger and freight rail provides a numerous benefits to the Australian community,

business and the environment including:business and the environment including:– supporting regional communities– reducing community health effects– minimising environmental consequences– reducing the road toll by reducing crashes– limiting local government road maintenance– limiting road investment demands on Treasuries– improving international competitiveness for agricultureimproving international competitiveness for agriculture– reducing road infrastructure costs for state government road authorities– maintaining robust transport systems to suit a variety of futures, including reduced oil

availability.

A ffi i t ff ti f t t t i i d t t A t li ' h t d An efficient, effective, safe transport system is required to meet Australia's short andlong term needs

Compared with historical practice, passenger and freight rail must take a much larger proportion of land transport in Australiaproportion of land transport in Australia

To do so requires many and diverse industry and government activities at substantially higher levels than have occurred previously

However, rail transport is not for its own sake and must be justified against


, p j galternatives

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Benefits from Rail InvestmentBenefits from Rail InvestmentBenefits from Rail InvestmentBenefits from Rail Investment

Annual 3.8 to 6.2 Mt CO2-e emissions reductions11% lower transport emissions by 203011% lower transport emissions by 2030Total benefits

$27 4 to 41 7b$27.4 to 41.7b(NPV 2010 -2020)


Source: Transforming Rail: A Key Element in Australia’s Low Pollution FutureCRC for Rail Innovation 2009

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There is nothing a Government hates more than to be well-informed; than to be well informed;

for it makes the process of arriving at decisions much more complicated and decisions much more complicated and difficult.

Keynes


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Climate Change ManagementClimate Change ManagementClimate Change ManagementClimate Change Management

Climate Change Mitigation

ResponsesImpact on SystemsActivity

Government policyBusiness practiceUser behaviour

NetworksOperationsDemand

GovernmentBusinessCommunity

Adaptation


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Climate Change ManagementClimate Change ManagementClimate Change ManagementClimate Change Management

Climate Change

Activity Impact on Systems Responses

GovernmentBusinessCommunity

NetworksOperationsDemand

Government policyBusiness practiceUser behaviour


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Transport and the Carbon EconomyTransport and the Carbon EconomyTransport and the Carbon EconomyTransport and the Carbon Economy

Travel / Transport less

Burn less carbon more efficient transport & modes more efficient vehicles more efficient energy sources


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Market Issues of an Emissions Market Issues of an Emissions Market Issues of an Emissions Market Issues of an Emissions Trading SchemeTrading Schemegg

Market principlesMarket failures Poor information Natural monopoly E t liti Externalities Social objectives (eg income distribution or service

quality)quality)

So, other strong policies are needed to complement the Emissions Trading Scheme

CRC f R il I ti 2009

Emissions trading on its own does not work;it needs other actions

CRC for Rail Innovation, 2009


it needs other actions

Allan Jones - CEO, London Climate Change Agency

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Transport Emissions Market Transport Emissions Market Transport Emissions Market Transport Emissions Market DistortionsDistortions

Car driver's costs will not change, but rail public transport costs will increase Road freight charges will not change, but rail freight costs will increase ETS charges are not market linked to public transport

pricing (fares) which may be constrained by political choices and economic regulation- pricing (fares) which may be constrained by political choices and economic regulation- infrastructure charges and provision (ie users pay for infrastructure but don't have choices about where improvements are made)

Car owners costs are discounted by tax rebates or payments by others (business) The general community has responded to the market by purchasing small cars, while

government (and business to a lesser extent) has not. In other words governments are not responding to the market.

Businesses will transfer their increased costs to consumers who have no influence over business costs ("Take it or leave it"). So business does not always have much incentive to reduce emissions costs. Governments have even less management incentive

Commercial drivers are often distant from the usage costs. So a truck or LCV driver can drive in a very fuel inefficient manner and receive no penalty so there is no incentive to drive in a very fuel inefficient manner and receive no penalty so there is no incentive to change

Car and truck ET charges are rebated, but freight and passenger railways pay full costs Road freight pricing is flawed


Road pricing not market linked to infrastructure supply

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Emissions Adaptation and TransportEmissions Adaptation and TransportEmissions Adaptation and TransportEmissions Adaptation and Transport

Governments have a major role to play in lowering Governments have a major role to play in lowering the economic costs of adjustment to higher oil prices, an emissions price and population prices, an emissions price and population growth, through planning for more compact urban forms and rail and public transport.p p

Mode shift may account for a quarter of emissions y qreductions in urban passenger transport, lowering the cost of transition and delivering multiple benefits to the community.

(Professor Ross Garnaut Final Report Sept 2008)


(Professor Ross Garnaut, Final Report, Sept 2008)

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Government ObjectivesGovernment ObjectivesGovernment ObjectivesGovernment Objectives

A national rail freight networkdevelopment of our rail networks so that pmore freight can be moved by rail

Transforming our citiesincreasing public transport capacity in our cities and making better use of existing transport infrastructure

(Infrastructure Australia, May 2009)


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Wh i A t li T t Wh i A t li T t Where is Australian Transport Where is Australian Transport Going?Going?gg

Performance C it iCriteria Capacity /

tili tiutilisation Speed Safety


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Policy Tool SelectionPolicy Tool SelectionPolicy Tool SelectionPolicy Tool Selection

RegulatorsEconomistsEngineers

Desirable? Necessary?Valuable? Sufficient?


Integrated, complementary or conflicting?Are there better alternatives?

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Believing as I do, … that market forces deliverthat market forces deliver

the lowest cost and most effective solutionto economic challenges,...g ,

So what about: Government infrastructure fundingg regulation subsidiessubsidies information, education and marketing research training and innovation


research, training and innovation

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A New Planning ParadigmA New Planning ParadigmA New Planning ParadigmA New Planning Paradigm

Current Perspective

• microanalysis• short term

New Planning Paradigm

• strategic• holistic• short term

• narrow focused• detailed /

fragmentedHow do we

improve

• holistic• long term• broad

i t t d

How do we provide

fragmented• historical• quantitative

t d i

improve what we’ve

got?

• integrated• multifaceted• future oriented

what we need?

• separate mode view• infrastructure solutions• commodity view

• qualitative & quantitative• customer view• logistics chain analysis

• incremental & evolutionary• environmental & social

benefits largely ignored

g y• quantum change &

revolutionary• environmental & social


g y g environmental & social benefits described

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“the mystery of Government is not how it works but how to make it stop”works, but how to make it stop .

P.J. O’Rourke


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Government WeaknessesGovernment WeaknessesGovernment WeaknessesGovernment WeaknessesLeadershipp

No major policy improvements since truck charging and rail commercialisation in 1990’s

P li St t d Pl iPolicy, Strategy and Planning Commonwealth Major Cities Unit WA grain rail reform WA grain rail reform

Co-operation eg State Commonwealth State v State eg State - Commonwealth, State v State

ResearchCapability

Skills, knowledge and experienceD t d i f ti


Data and information Number of people

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Rail Industry WeaknessesRail Industry WeaknessesRail Industry WeaknessesRail Industry Weaknesses

LeadershipLeadership eg continuous reorganisation

Policy Strategy and PlanningPolicy, Strategy and Planning eg typical 4 year business outlook

Capability eg transport economists

ResearchCo operationCo-operation eg national working rules


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Economic OpportunitiesEconomic OpportunitiesEconomic OpportunitiesEconomic Opportunities

Further investmentIncentives & taxation reformIncentives & taxation reformReducing regulatory burdenLegislation


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Transport Economics Research for Transport Economics Research for Transport Economics Research for Transport Economics Research for Treasury Treasury

FBT reform eliminate perverse incentives to drive furthereliminate perverse incentives to drive further

Charge for cars for congestionReform truck charges Improve accuracy (eg road use damage relationship)

Include congestion Eliminate undercharging of heavily used Eliminate undercharging of heavily used

vehicles Include unpriced externalities


Include unpriced externalitiesSource: A Conceptual Framework for the Reform of Taxes Related to Roads and Transport, Clarke and Prentice, Prepared for the Treasury, Canberra, June 2009

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Canberra’s View Canberra’s View of WAof WACanberra’s View Canberra’s View of WAof WA

A cash cowA cash cowDoesn’t understandMuch greater challenges on East Coast Economic Economic

(eg fiscal limitations)

Transport pressuresTransport pressures(demand, performance, consequences, asset age, etc)

Geographic challengesGeographic challenges(topography, close towns, sandstone, etc)

Political


(sensitivity and size)

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Personal PerspectivesPersonal PerspectivesPersonal PerspectivesPersonal Perspectives

WA is doing very well economically economically transport policy, planning & practice

Don’t believe all the advocacy (where's the money?)( y )

Hyperactive policy

Engineers Make it Happen


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Transport Safety Future?Transport Safety Future?Transport Safety Future?Transport Safety Future?

Upward PressuresUpward Pressures transport demand

Downward InfluencesDownward Influences vehicle safetyp

vehicle power driver attitudes

y infrastructure quality safety awareness

treatment costsy

diminishing returnsUncertaintiesUncertainties

g congestion enforcement


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Transport Safety PolicyTransport Safety PolicyTransport Safety PolicyTransport Safety Policy

'E t lit ' t'Externality' assessment

Historical analysisHistorical analysis

Incident investigations

No recent reform

Mi li ti Micro-policy perspective, not mainstream policy

Exceptions WA 'Towards Zero'


WA Towards Zero

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Multi-disciplined

Strong analytical base

Independent

Multimodal


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CurtinCurtin--Monash Accident Research CentreMonash Accident Research Centre

S h l f P bli H lth School of Public Health, Curtin University of TechnologyGPO Box U1987, PERTH 6845, Western AustraliaPh: (08) 9266 9591 email: [email protected] www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au for more information


Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes

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