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Is Delhi losing the pollution battle?

Centre for Science and Environment

Press conference

New Delhi, November 6, 2007

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Ten years ago….

3

4

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2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap

On fuel qualityIntroduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers

On vehicle technologyEnforced Bharat stage II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005)

On alternative fuelsImplemented largest ever CNG programmeLargest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas

Other cross cutting policy measuresCapped the number of three-wheelersPhased out 15 year old commercial vehiclesStrengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC)Efforts made to bypass transit trafficSet up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration

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It made a difference…avoided huge amount of pollution

PM10 at ITO Traff ic Intersection

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mic

rogr

amm

e pe

r cu

bic

met

re

P M10 trend projection pre Supreme Court directions

P M10 trend P ost Supreme Court directions

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Ominous signs….

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Winter of 2007. Its smog. Still air, dust, smoke, low visibility…lungs are choked again…

Source: Teri

240.5

338.1

104070

100130160190220250280310340

Aug 07 - Oct 07

mic

rogr

am/c

ubic

met

re

PM2.5 NO2 SO2

Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007)

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Source: Teri

412

268

366335

320338 354 342

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

NO2 RSP M

Winter Woes ITO (monthly average of PM10 and NO2 in winter months

of Sept to Feb during 1998-2006)

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Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward

Source: Teri

RSPM

0

60

120

180

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rogr

am/ c

ubic

met

re

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

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NOx levels: rising steadily

Source: Teri

NOx

0

10

20

30

40

50

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rog

ram

/ cu

bic

me

tre

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre

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Health burden

• Pollution level of 1991-92: World Bank estimated 7,491 premature deaths in Delhi.

• As PM10 drops between 1993 and 2002, World Bank estimates saving of 3,629 lives per year.

•2006-07: Levels are up again. We are yet to estimate the death toll today. It could be critically high.

-- Even an increase of only 10 microgramme/cu m of PM2.5 leads to significant increases in health risks. High exposure increase hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis, heart damage and lung cancer. 

-- 65% of Delhites have impaired lung function (CNCI 2004)

-- 26% of Delhiites have undergone chromosomal damage due to air pollution that can be precursor to cancer (CNCI study 2004-05)

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Is Delhi running to stand still?

Uncontrolled vehicle numbers swamp change

Vehicle registrations

1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

milli

ons

*fiscal year

Three fold increase since 1991

Delhi NO2 trend

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

mic

rogr

am p

er c

ubic

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er

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

No.

of V

eh. i

n la

khs

Res. Areas Ind. Areas No. of Veh

Vehicular growth correlates strongly with rising NOx levels

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Unsustainable: Phenomenal increase in daily registration of vehicles

Source: Teri

231333

564 580

308

654

963 994

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Cars Tw o w heelers Total privatevehicles

Total vehicles(private

+commercial)

No

of r

egis

tere

d ve

hicl

es p

er d

ay

2000-01 2005-06

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Influx from outside

Personal vehicles dominate incoming traffic.

Traffic volume count

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Badarpurto Mehrauli

Mehrauli toBadarpur

Gurgaon toTaj Palace

Taj Palaceto Gurgaon

Ghaziabadto KaleKhan

Kale Khanto

Ghaziabad

No

. of

veh

icle

s (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Private vehicles Commercial vehicles

Daily influx of vehicles through 10 key entry points.

Nizamuddin bridge: nearly 80 per cent of the traffic in the morning is from outside.

In the evening peak hour, 75% of vehicles in ITO are from outside

Choked…..Choked…..

Other road segments

Peak designed capacity (PCU per hour)

Actual Peak volume (PCU per hour) in 2002

Dhaula Kuan to Raja Garden

8004 10726

B. S Gurudwara to AIIMS

10959 12493

AIIMS to Dhaula Kuan

10981 13617Source: IL&FS 2004 as quoted in CDP Delhi

Traffic volume exceeds the designed capacity of most of the capital’s key arterial roads.

NH8 (Delhi-Gurgaon) is designed for a peak traffic volume of 160,000 vehicles by 2015. There are already 130,000 vehicles fighting for space!

Crawling traffic in Delhi: Average vehicular speed drops from 20-27 km/hr in 1997 to only 15 km/hr in 2002.

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Vehicle Emissions vis-à-vis Speed

Pollution impact of congestion

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DieselisedDiesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Num

bers

Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van

Agency Red alert on diesel exhaust

US EPA (2002)

Likely human carcinogen

CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant

HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer

NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen

IARC (1989) Probable human carcinogen

WHO IPCS (1996)

Probable human carcinogen

1999: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car sales in Delhi. 2007: Diesel cars are 30% of new car sales2010: It is projected to be 50% of the sales

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Diesel cars: license to pollute

One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher

Even at a conservative estimate, the total number of diesel cars presently in Delhi is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses.

Diesel emissions: several times more toxic

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CNG bus programme: Big gains

NOx

6.24

5.35

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

Euro II diesel bus on 500ppm sulphur fuel + DOC

Euro II CNG bus +threeway catalytic converter

gm/km

PM

0.35

0.00650

0.10.20.30.4

Euro II diesel bus on 500ppm sulphur fuel + DOC

Euro II CNG bus +threeway catalytic converter

gm/k

mNOx emissions from Euro II CNG bus: 1.2 times lower than diesel buses

Source: Teri

PM emissions from Euro II CNG bus: more than 50 times lower than Euro II diesel buses

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Buses still meet very high share of travel demand. But wrong policies discourage them

2,90,431

30,521

2,725

5.69

2.39

0.44

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Two wheeler Cars Bus0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total annual tax per vehicle Total tax per vehicle-km

Tax per vehicle-km

Annual tax

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ahm

edab

ad

Kolka

ta

Delh

i

Hyde

raba

d

Luck

now

Chen

nai

Pune

Bus Car, Taxi, two-wheelers Three-wheelers Rickshaw Cycle

Yet buses bear significantly higher tax burden in India. Tax correction can push a large number of two wheeler users to buses

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Solution: Public transportSolution: Public transportBut progress very slowBut progress very slow

Public transport projects under implementationHigh capacity bus system – 100kmMetro plan -- 245 km plannedPurchase of new buses: Delhi fails to meet the target of 10,000

buses set by the Supreme Court. The city is short of roughly 4000 buses. Plans to buy 4500 new buses.

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Need urgent aggressive measures

Small steps cannot save lives

Reinvent Mobility to reduce car usageImplement all the public transport projects on schedule

Connect the satellite towns in the NCR with an effective public transport

Implement strategies and tax policies to control numbers and usage of personal cars

Technology roadmapLeapfrog emissions and fuel standards to Euro IV. Get clean diesel or restrict dieselisation