IRI Pulse Report Alcohol · PDF filePULSE REPORT IRI Pulse Report Alcohol Welcome to the Pulse...
Transcript of IRI Pulse Report Alcohol · PDF filePULSE REPORT IRI Pulse Report Alcohol Welcome to the Pulse...
PULSE REPORT
IRI Pulse Report Alcohol
Welcome to the Pulse H1 2015 edition for alcohol. We hope you find
it useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any
questions or comments at [email protected].
H1 2015
IRIworldwide.com
PULSE REPORT
About the Report
2
• This alcohol report is one of 10 super category reports designed to show a high-level
comparison and analysis for retail markets across major countries in Europe.
• This report contains data gathered from around Europe. This market was split into the
following categories: beer, cider, wine, spirits, fortified wines and alcoholic soft drinks.
• The report highlights key metrics, such as total sales, market trends, category share and
winners and losers for Europe as a whole and individual countries.
• The data has been sourced from IRI retail databases and Eurostat – the statistical branch
of administration for the European Commission.
• The countries included in the report are: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain
and the United Kingdom (UK).
• The market channels used for each country in this report are as follows:
Country Channels used
UK Hypermarkets, supermarkets, drugstores and impulse outlets
ES Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores
DE Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores
NL Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores
IT Hypermarkets, supermarkets, small self service, hard discounters and drugstores
FR Hypermarkets and supermarkets
• For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been
consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it has not been
possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. Where this is the case, it has been
documented in the ‘Notes’ section found at the end of the report.
PULSE REPORT
On the Radar
3
POPULATION
IN MILLIONS
UNEMPLOYMENT
(%)
AVERAGE 12
MONTHS
INFLATION
RATES GDP IN MILLIONS (€)
Jan.
2014
Jan.
2015
Avg.
2014
Jun.
2015
Avg.
2014
Jun.
2015 2013 2014
France 65.8 66.4 10.3 10.2 +0.6 +0.2 2 116 565 2 132 449
Germany 80.8 81.2 5.0 4.7 +0.8 +0.4 2 820 820 2 915 650
Italy 60.8 60.8 12.7 12.7 +0.2 +0.0 1 609 462 1 616 253
Netherlands 16.8 16.9 7.4 7.0 +0.3 +0.1 650 857 662 770
Spain 46.5 46.4 24.5 26.6 -0.2 -0.6 1 049 181 1 058 469
United
Kingdom 64.4 64.8 6.1 5.6 +1.5 +0.6 2 017 193 2 222 912
ECONOMIC FIGURES INFLUENCING CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Source: Eurostat, June 2015
Warmer weather, innovative products and flavors, and an increase in promotional activity created high demand for alcoholic beverages across the market.
PULSE REPORT
1 327 1 629 1 651 1 510 1 324 1 559
834 921 1 058 1 003 860
934 480
571 552 518 491
567 1 036 1 165 1 239 1 280
1 070 1 173
4 372
4 975 4 512 4 928
4 354 3 373
2 619
3 054 3 275 3 315
2 689 3 095
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
30-mar-14 29-jun-14 28-sep-14 28-dic-14 29-mar-15 28-jun-15
Eu
ro
s, in
millio
ns
Period Ending
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
UK
GLOBAL TRENDS
4
+0.9%
+0.1%
-1.7%
TOTAL EUROPE +0.4%
VALUE SALES IN MILLIONS (€)
Total EU 46 330
DE 17 167
FR 12 375
UK 6 043*
IT 4 761
ES 3 855
NL 2 128
TOTAL ALCOHOL VALUE SALES AND % CHANGE VERSUS PRIOR YEAR
*based on an exchange rate of €1.27 to the pound
+0.7%
+1.6%
+0.9%
TOTAL ALCOHOL VALUE SALES FOR THE LAST SIX QUARTERS
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
PULSE REPORT
18 398
14 954
10 506
1 551 724 0.0
1.3 0.9 -3.6 -1.2
Beer Wine Spirits Cider FortifiedWines
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
39.7%
32.3%
22.7%
3.3%
1.6%
0.4%
Beer Wine Spirits Cider Fortified Wines Alcoholic Soft Drinks
Europe
5
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
KEY TRENDS
• Beer, wine and spirits counted for almost
95% of the total turnover for alcoholic
beverages in Europe.
• Within Europe, only wine and spirits
showed value sales growth in the latest
moving annual total (MAT).
• Despite warmer weather conditions, the
beer market was flat for the last MAT due
to a negative evolution in the two largest
markets, Germany and the UK.
• Wine grew in all European countries except
for the Netherlands.
• Spirits continued to grow this quarter with
France leading the way, followed by
Germany. Spain was the only country that
showed decreases in the spirits sub-
category.
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
18 398
14 954
10 506
1 551 724
196
PULSE REPORT
Europe
6
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• Wine was the fastest growing category in Europe, with an increased demand across all
countries except for the Netherlands. France was the top contributor both in value sales and
percentage increase.
• Despite warm weather conditions across Europe, beer was flat last MAT. The strong
performance from the Netherlands, Spain and Italy could not make up for the loss in the
main markets, Germany and the UK. In-store promotions, innovation and new launches
drove category increases for the countries that saw positive growth.
• Spirits sales increased in Europe due to rising demand from the two largest markets in
Europe, Germany and France (up 1.0% and 0.9% respectively) with Italy also contributing a
1.3% increase. Those gains compensated for the decline in Spain (-0.4%), where only gin
showed a significant increase due to a demand for gin and tonic.
Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
187.2
89.5
0 50 100 150 200
Wine
Spirits -3.2
-5.2
-8.5
-58.1
-80 -40 0
Beer
Alcoholic SoftDrinks
Fortified Wines
Cider
PULSE REPORT
5 520
4 092
2 239
397 117
2.0 0.9 2.8 -2.1 2.4
Wine Spirits Beer FortifiedWines
Cider
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
44.1%
33.1%
17.7%
4.0% 0.9%
0.1%
Wine Spirits Beer Fortified Wines Cider Alcoholic Soft Drinks
France
7
KEY TRENDS
• Continuing the trend from 2014, beverages
grew faster than total fast moving consumer
goods (FMCG) in hypermarkets and
supermarkets between January 2015 and
June 2015.
• Both alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages
grew in volume (2.0% and 3.2%
respectively), but the price war impacted the
non-alcoholic category, allowing the alcoholic
category to grow faster in value.
• The warm weather conditions during the first
half of the year created a positive impact for
non-alcoholic beverages. The alcoholic
markets growth was due to an increase in
promotional activity and the development of
innovative flavors and offerings.
• Due to the price war for all segments,
national brands were well oriented while
private labels lost market shares; price
decrease has impacted only national brands,
sustained by an increased promotional
activity.
5 520
4 092
2 239
397 117 11
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
PULSE REPORT
France
8
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• Like 2014, beer is the real winner of the first half of the year: the category is growing in value
and in volume. This is due to a lot of innovations (flavored beers and radler that were more
enticing to young consumers and women consumers). Beer reached the fastest sales growth
of all beverages. The number of SKU is also growing faster than all the other beverage
segments.
• Due to a price war, we noticed a deflation in beer purchases. At the same time, there is an
increase in premiumization which allowed the total value to be well oriented.
• No more volume sales increased for wines, or for still or sparkling segments.
− Both champagne and other sparkling wines improved their promotional activity,
but the non-promoted sales items saw decreases.
− Still wines can’t run promotion due to volume constrains (low harvest). So,
premiumization and price increase generated the positive value sales trends. Rosé
wine is well oriented, but it didn’t compensate for the loss in red wine sales.
• The gain for spirits is due to rum sales (positive trend in volume and value) and the fashion
for spirits cocktails, such as Spritz which has contributed to the success of the bitter segment.
Old segments, such as anisés are still declining.
• Fortified wines (vermouth and port) has continued to decline in value and volume.
TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
107.9
61.2
35.1
2.8
0 50 100 150
Wine
Beer
Spirits
Cider-0.5
-8.3
-10 -6 -2
Alcoholic Soft Drinks
Fortified Wines
PULSE REPORT
7 323
5 039
4 537
118 101 -0.9
0.8 1.0 -4.7 5.0
Beer Wine Spirits AlcoholicSoft
Drinks
FortifiedWines
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
42.7%
29.4%
26.4%
0.7% 0.6%
0.3%
Beer Wine Spirits Alcoholic Soft Drinks Fortified Wines Cider
Germany
9
KEY TRENDS
• The market shares of the different
categories showed that wine had stronger
sales than spirits. Beer is the leading
segment in Germany. The other sub-
categories share is very low.
• Beer’s decline in value sales was due to
several factors: no major sporting event in
H1 2015, less hours of sunlight and lower
temperatures compared to 2014.
• Wine and spirits value sales grew due to a
price increase.
• Value sales of the spirits sub-category
increased as the result of increased sales of
new high-end products such as gin and rum.
7 323
5 039
4 537
118 101 48
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
PULSE REPORT
Germany
10
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• The FIFA World Cup drove beer promotions and demand during the second quarter of 2014.
The increase in sales during 2014 caused manufacturers to react with more promotions at
lower prices during H1 2015, this lead to low performances for this sub-category.
• Sparkling wine is still affected by a two-sided evolution. Classic German sparkling wine is
experiencing sharp volume sales declines, but losses are being offset by higher prices despite
promotion. Volume losses are also being offset by the growth of flavored sparkling wines.
There are an increasing number of new products such as Rotkäppchen Fruchtsecco or Jules
Mumm Plus.
• In H1 2015, spirits’ growth came from new flavored options. There was also a demand from
consumers for high-end products in many segments such as gin, rum and whisky. This
created positive value sales.
• 60% of the wine in Germany is sold at a price below €2.50. But the price category more than
€5 showed an increase in sales. These numbers show that German consumers are looking for
better quality wine and are willing to pay higher prices.
TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
- 5.0
- 5.8
- 65.0
-80 -40 0
Cider
Alcoholic Soft Drinks
Beer
46.3
41.8
4.8
0 20 40
Spirits
Wine
Fortified Wines
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
PULSE REPORT
2 301
1 417
985
48 12 1.1 0.6 1.3 -0.7 -11.9
Wine Beer Spirits FortifiedWines
AlcoholicSoft
Drinks
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
48.2%
29.8%
20.7%
1.0% 0.3%
Wine Beer Spirits Fortified Wines Alcoholic Soft Drinks
Italy
11
KEY TRENDS
• In the wine category, value sales increased,
but volume declined.
• Beer experienced a period of stable sales,
supported by the expectation of the summer
season.
• Spirits gradually improved in both value and
volume sales. This can be seen in the slight
growth of aperitifs and the recovery of
bitters. Whisky, cognacs and other high
alcohol content products sales were
impacted by the Italian government’s excise
tax, modified late in 2013.
2 301
1 417
985
48 12
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
PULSE REPORT
Italy
12
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• Slow price increases supported volume growth in the wine category.
• In recent months, beer marketers have found success in driving growth through innovation
despite a weak market. One Italian company ended the year with a 9.0% increase in value
sales and 8.8% in volume sales, significantly higher than other firms in this segment. This
was as a result of innovation, communication and in-store activities.
• For spirits, volume sales have decreased by 0.6% during the first six months of 2015. The
increase in value is mainly due to the decision of the Italian government to increase excise
taxes (modified late in 2013). It is a tough climate for spirits, nothing is improving sales; the
aging population, busy lifestyles and high taxes are all feeding into sales declines. The right
promotional activities, consistency in commercial offers and products adaptable to socio-
demographic change can be put in place to overcome the sales drop. Overall, businesses
need to understand what consumers want and invest in research and development to meet
demand.
• The alcoholic soft drinks sector has been in decline since its launch two years ago.
TOP 5 LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP 5 WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
24.6
12.2
8.4
0 10 20 30
Wine
Spirits
Beer
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
-0.3
-1.6
-2 -1 0
Fortified Wines
Alcoholic Soft Drinks
PULSE REPORT
1 141
855
77 55 1 1.8 -0.2 -3.7 5.0 -23.7
Beer Wine FortifiedWines
AlcoholicSoft
Drinks
Cider
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
53.0% 40.6%
3.8% 2.5%
0.1%
Beer Wine Fortified Wines Alcoholic Soft Drinks Cider
The Netherlands
13
KEY TRENDS
• The total of alcohol market grew in value
by 1.4% compared to last year.
• The overall promo pressure within retail
declined to 17.3%, whereas the beer and
wine category showed an increase in
promo share (49.3% and 33.4%).
• The private label share is at its lowest
point since the summer of 2013.
• Not only did radler and alcohol free beer
grow, but sales and volume within
specialty beers increased.
1,141
855
77 55 1
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
PULSE REPORT
The Netherlands
14
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• Beer showed volume growth due to the successful introduction of the radler segment and
alcohol free beer, and specialty beers also grew. The growth of all the segments came with a
rising promo pressure.
• The wine category saw slight declines in value and volume. Major segments grew in value
(red and white wine), but not enough to compensate for the decline of other segments such
as rosé and cider, which lost both in value and volume.
• Fortified wines suffered from declining sales within Dutch supermarkets, largely due to
stagnant new product development efforts.
TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
-0.3
-1.3
-3.0
-4 -2 0
Cider
Wine
Fortified Wines
20.4
2.6
0 10 20
Beer
Alcoholic Soft Drinks
PULSE REPORT
1 587
1 239
893
102 34 1.1 1.2 -0.4
-1.7 1.4
Beer Wine Spirits FortifiedWines
Cider
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
41.2%
32.1%
23.2%
2.6%
0.9%
Beer Wine Spirits Fortified Wines Cider
Spain
15
KEY TRENDS
• Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales
grew by 0.5% in Spain. Total beverages
category decreased by 0.2%, although
alcoholic beverages (+0.7%) moderated
the decline.
• Beers showed growth in value within
alcoholic beverage categories, driven by
higher temperatures and an increase of
foreign tourism (4.2% versus year ago, a
record high during the first half of 2015).
• Wine showed growth in value, driven by
Protected Denomination of Origin (PDO)
wines.
• Gin was the top performer among high
graduation beverages. It showed double
digit growth rate due to consumers’ affinity
for gin and tonic beverages. On the other
hand, whisky, rum and vodka continued to
lose value.
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
1 587
1 239
893
102 34
PULSE REPORT
Spain
16
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• Alcoholic beverage sales moved forward since signs of recovery were seen in the beer
segment, particularly in FMCG retailers, bars and restaurants. After years of consecutive
contraction, for the first time the market bounced back. It was driven by warmer weather
conditions, economic recovery and record high levels of foreign tourism. Among segments,
shandy/radler outpaced the category growth and showed a double digit increase (12.3%).
• The wine segment also showed a positive evolution in mass market. Consumers increasingly
demanded higher quality products, switching demand from private label (-6.3%) to PDO
wines (5.3% increase in value sales versus a year ago). Among the different PDOs, Rueda
PDO was the top performer in the category (20.9%). Rioja also increased its sales and
strengthened its lead in the market up to 24.1% of total value sales in the wine category.
• Sales of spirits continued to decline, with contraction in all categories. The decline was due to
changing consumer habits including; economic recovery and lower unemployment rates led
consumers to switch consumption from FMCG retailers to bars. Whisky (-2.7%) with standard
Scottish segment leading the way; rum (-5.6%) driven by a decrease in sales of black rum
and vodka (-4.1%). The only exception is gin, which continues to expand at double digit
rates (10.6%).
• Cider showed the highest percentage growth (1.4%) among sub-categories, with both
segments (natural and champagne-flavoured) showing increases.
• For the fortified wines sub-category, both segments vermouth and liquored wines showed
decreases with vermouth leading the losses (-1.5%).
TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
- 1.7
- 4.0
-5 -3 -1
Fortified Wines
Spirits
17.5
14.2
0.5
0 5 10 15 20
Beer
Wine
Cider
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
PULSE REPORT
77.6%
22.4%
Beer Cider
The United Kingdom
17
Eu
ros,
in m
illi
on
s
CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR
CATEGORY SHARE OF VALUE IN THE LAST YEAR
TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION
Value sales (€) and % change versus a year ago
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
4 692
1 352
4,692
1,352
-1.0 -4.0
Beer Cider
Euro
s,
in m
illions
Euro Sales % € vs. YA
KEY TRENDS
• The beer and cider market saw declines
during 2015, with the beer sector down
1.0% year on year and cider down 4.0%.
• Beer declines are to be expected as the
sector lapped 2014’s FIFA World Cup and
below the line and above the line
promotional support was reduced year over
year.
• Cider performance however is more
surprising given the lower levels of
competition from beer in 2015. Declines
have been due to value and premium
ciders.
• Overall cider performance is masking
divergent trends by segments. Apple as a
flavour suffered and drove declines for
premium cider in the supermarkets.
However, fruit and more traditional ciders
are growing – suggesting consumers are
looking for something beyond the
mainstream.
PULSE REPORT
The United Kingdom
18
Source: IRI retail databases; period ending 28 June 2015
TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES CHANGE VERSUS A YEAR AGO (€)
- 45.8
- 55.9
-60 -40 -20 0
Beer
Cider
Euros, in millions Euros, in millions
CATEGORY INSIGHTS
• Shelf space was reduced across beer, wine and spirits in the UK supermarkets. The reduction
was driven by retailers desire to simplify consumer options in order to compete with
discounters. Categories are now competing for shelf space with rivals (other beverages such as
water, energy drinks, etc.) they had never previously considered.
• Cider decline is due partially to poor weather, with 2015 sales down in May versus last year.
Cider is suffering at the top and bottom of the market, with apple flavour in particular being an
issue. Performance of apple suggest the flavour may be overstocked with competitors after the
arrival of the major brewing houses in the last few years. Success of fruit variants suggests
shoppers want something new and different to drink in the sector.
PULSE REPORT
Final Notes
19
Notes on category definitions for countries
Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market, it was necessary
to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasn’t
possible to align products across all six countries. Those exceptions are listed below:
Cider
• The Italy data in this report includes cider within the fortified wines category.
• The Netherlands data in this report does not include pear cider.
Wine
• The UK data in this report does not include this category.
Spirits
• The UK data in this report does not include this category.
• The Netherlands data in this report does not include this category.
• The France data in this report includes punch and cocktails, while the other countries do not.
Fortified wines
• The UK data in this report does not include this category.
Alcoholic soft drinks
• The UK data in this report does not include this category.
• The Spain data in this report does not include this category.
PULSE REPORT
Resources
20
About IRI. IRI is a leading provider of big data, predictive analytics and forward-looking insights that help CPG, OTC
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Please contact Angel Martin, Consultant, IRI at
+33 1 30 06 23 62 with questions or comments about this report.
To gain insight into opportunities across specific categories, segments, channels or retailers,
contact your IRI client service representative regarding custom analyses leveraging the
following resources:
• InfoScan Census® is a syndicated retail tracking service that enables manufacturers and
retailers to acquire industry insights used to make better business decisions. InfoScan
Census utilizes the data that IRI collects from grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers
to provide the most comprehensive and accurate syndicated data offering in the FMCG
sector. With access to accurate, granular detail by category, geography, measure, and time
period, clients have the tools needed to develop marketing and sales strategies based on
product performance, distribution, and promotion responsiveness. All data about alcohol
comes from InfoScan Census.
• IRI Consulting provides strategic insights and advice leveraging a variety of data sources,
predictive analytics, enabling technologies, and business analyses to help FMCG
manufacturers and retailers address significant sales and marketing issues effectively.