Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections

2010-2020

Gemma O’ReillyEimear Cotter and Bernard Hyde

Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland

United Nations Climate Change Conference Cancun - COP 16 & CMP 6

Overview

Introduction

Key assumptions

Kyoto Protocol

The future

Conclusions

Introduction

EPA produce GHG projections on an annual basis as set out in Ireland’s National Climate Change Strategy (2007)

Projections are used to meet reporting requirements at National, EU and International (UNFCCC) levels

Projections developed consistent with UNFCCC guidelines and national greenhouse gas inventory

Sectoral Emissions Projections

Energy-related sectors

Power GenerationTransportResidentialCommercial ServicesIndustry

Non-Energy related sectors

AgricultureWasteF-gases and industrial processesNMVOCsForest sinks

Requires co-ordination of large amounts of data and the cooperation of a large number of organisations

Energy Forecasts

Top down macroeconomic model – HERMES (ESRI)Key variables relate to parameters such as price, GDP, population, household growth and occupancy

Form the basis for the With Measures scenario – all existing policies and measuresWith Additional Measures scenario - all existing andplanned policies and measures

Agriculture Activity Data

Projected animal numbers, crop areas and fertiliser use are provided by Teagasc using the FAPRI Ireland model

Assumptions include:Removal of milk quota in 2015Developments in agricultural markets – cereal & animal feed prices, fertilizer prices and commodity marketsFarm efficiency improvements

The FAPRI-Ireland model is linked with the University of Missouri FAPRI model of world agricultural commodity markets

The model has an agricultural commodity coverage that extends tomarkets for

grains other field crops (potatoes, sugar beet),

LivestockMilk and dairy products

Emission Factors

In general CO2, CH4 and N2O emission factors based on emission inventories (1990-2008)

Plant specificCountry specificDefault IPCC emission factors

CO2 from combustion of biogenic carbon not included, CH4 and N2O estimated using IPCC defaults

Overview

Introduction

Key assumptions

Kyoto Protocol

The future

Conclusions

Energy Related emissions –key assumptions

GDP growth rate: recession in 2008-2010 reflected with growth assumed again for 2011

Population growth rate, no. of households

Personal consumption growth rates

CO2 €/tonne taken from EU Allowances futures market prices (09-12) & Dept of Finance

Fuel prices taken from EU Commission (DG)- Transport and Energy (TREN) largely from the PRIMES model

With Measures and With Additional Measures (PAMs) scenarios

Includes the anticipated impact of PAM’s in place (and legislatively provided for) by the end 2008

Renewables Penetration 2008 Building Regulations Efficient Boiler Standard SEAI Small Business Support Improved fuel economy2010 Building Regulations

Includes both existing and planned policies and measures

40% renewables by 2020 (RES-E)Energy efficiency measures12% renewables in thermal heat by 2020 (RES-H)10% renewables in road transport by 2020 (RES-T)Further Potential MeasuresF-gas Regulation & MAC Directive

With Measures With Additional Measures

Overview

Introduction

Key assumptions

Kyoto Protocol

The future

Conclusions

With Measures (GgCO2e)

With Additional Measures (GgCO2e)

Kyoto Protocol Limit

Kyoto Protocol Limit 314.2 Mtonnes of CO2e for the period 2008 – 201262.8 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum

This is calculated as 13% above Ireland’s 1990 baseline value which was established and fixed at 55.61 Mtonnes of CO2e

For ETS sectors 22.3 million allowances per annum111.4 million allowances to be allocated to ETS sectors for the period 2008-2012

For non-ETS sectors62.84 – 22.28 = 40.56 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum

Kyoto Protocol Limit – With Measures

Mtonnes of CO2eAverage Emission

2008 – 2012

With Measures (WM)includes carbon sinks

63.0

Attributed to ETS 19.5

Attributed to non-ETS 43.6

Government Purchases/Additional Domestic Action 3.0

* 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) * 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) –– 22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO22ee

43.6 43.6 –– 40.6 = 3.0 Mtonnes of CO40.6 = 3.0 Mtonnes of CO22e e

Kyoto Protocol Limit – With Additional Measures

Mtonnes of CO2eAverage Emission

2008 – 2012

With Additional Measures (WAM)includes carbon sinks

62.3

Attributed to ETS 19.2

Attributed to non-ETS 43.1

Government Purchases/Additional Domestic Action 2.6

* 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) * 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) –– 22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO22ee

43.1 43.1 –– 40.6 = 2.6 Mtonnes of CO40.6 = 2.6 Mtonnes of CO22e e

Compliance under Kyoto Protocol

WAM total projected gap 12.9 Mtonnes

Total purchases to date (C&AG report 2009) 8.255 million credits

Remaining required purchases ~ 4.6 million credits

Possible New Entrant Set-Aside (NESA) Returns ~ 5.0 million credits

Overview

Introduction

Key assumptions

Kyoto Protocol

The future

Conclusions

Looking beyond emissions in 2012

National annual emissions projections for 2020 European targets

Climate Change Research Programme Integrated assessment modelling of transboundary and GHG emissions (GAINS)Developing energy modelling out to 2050Improving emissions factors for inventory and projectionsExploring the vision of achievement of “Carbon Neutrality by 2050”

Building and improving capacity for inventory and modelling across sectors through improved communication between research and government

Conclusions

The projections were updated in 2010 to take account of recession and impact of Government policyKyoto Protocol target will be met through combination of domestic action, Government purchases and use of allowances from the New Entrant Set Aside in ETS Emissions projections are a useful and essential tool for;

Developing sectoral and cross sectoral understanding Informing stakeholders of issues and challengesCoordination and development of actions across government

Investment in research to improve projections is on-going

Contacts

Eimear Cotter e.cotter@epa.ie

Bernard Hyde b.hyde@epa.ie