IR202 Week 13 Lecture 2 (China) Who makes Chinese FP?

- Not very clear unlike other countries- Bureaucratic politics in Chinese FP decision making - It is very complicated and not very clear - Speech given by Xi Jin Ping

Xi JinPing’s ‘new’ regional diplomacy1. New FP process:- Coordination of comprehensive policy (system atm is too uncoordinated,

need to centralise power (in his hands and a small number of other people) in november decided china needed a national security council (before there was a lot of bureaucratic infighting

- Important to see who was invited to the diplomacy work forum, because it wasn’t just the foreign ministry but also ministry of commerce and other stakeholds from all over the bureaucracy and china and the central bank

- State owned enterprises were there as well- multinationals with very close ties to the government

- Also asserted to have more control - Top level design: from system engineering very technocratic way of thinking

about DM- What does the top level design have to coordinate

5 concentric circles of FP actors: Shanbaugh (China goes Global) 1. Senior leaders 2. Ministries 3. Intelligence organs 4. Localities and corporations 5. Society

- According to shambaugh 1 and 2 circles make FPDM- In circle one it is very small and centralised and very opaque- 7 person committee none of which are FP experts: they make decision by

consensus in reaction to the cultural revolution and Mao’s strongman diplomacy

- As a result is that government processes are institutionalised so that it is not affected by personality influences

- Sense that new national security council may make it more centralised and give xi jinping more power

- But that is still relatively very very new - They are advised by leading small groups - Led by Yang Je Che (used to be foreign minister) - Mostly deal with domestic issues - Second ring of ministries give advice to the first ring (its influence is in

decline) Ministry of commerce is very important- has been pushing to maintain its exchange rate in relation to US

- A lot of movement sending its media abroad and setting up Xinhua news agency in timesquare and the Confucius institutes around the world

- Third rings: intelligence and academic expertise has built a large network of thinktanks in the past 20 years (most large ones are connected to ministries)

- Academics provide intelligence to the second ring

- Jacobsen and Nox- talk a lot about 3/4/5 rings trying to give more nuanced and complex view of chinese FP making academics can be called up to the first ring

- Every once in a while they have a brainstorming meeting (study sessions): not just a chance for academics to give information but also building conections between elite government leaders and elite academics

- Academics trying to influence FP through secret - Whole academic arena in china that is very secret not through public

publications hard to gauge overall impact of academia on FP - Fourth ring: corporations that operate abroad and local governments that

are involved in trading - Especially since 1999 china has had policy in going global especially in

foreign investment- And making chinese companies to be global brands: but often they are state

owned enterprises that are supported and picked by government to go abroad

- Often strategic oil but also construction companies. Construction companies are important as they need them to construct pipelines and roads to get oil from Africa

- Banks are also really important as they finance activity abroad- South china sea disputes background at oil- Companies may not be same as national interest, not really clear who is

really in control. Oil companies are very very powerful - Local governments in border areas and coasts- they push for trade but local

objectives may differ from national ones- Fifth circle: whereas in third circle academics work very close with

government the fifth circle is working more outside the official realm in the media and on the web

- Should not think of them as independent voices as the media and internet are still controlled by the government

- Chinadigitaltimes: weekly announcement by ministry of truth - Ring 5 people are very important too (they drum up public opinion)

How does foreign policy making work? Officials: top down

- Some say we should still look at the first 3 rings of officials - Need to focus on xijinping- China has become more complex society and authority is fractured

(Jacobsen..) role of public opinion is growing but not really clear where to find public opinion or whether it only matters when leadership is divided

- Some say public opinion is part of central committee I nthe communist party (it is just the 300 people in it)

- Weakness: very vague2. New content/ideas- Economic security ties- Shambaugh, Jacobsen and Nox

Where are Xi’s new ideas and where do they come from?

- Official views of the FP establishment- Nonofficial views of new FP actors- China only started talking about world dream lately- China dream: rejuvenation of the chinese nation by achieving rich and

powerful nation by revitalising the nation and happiness of people- Led to talk about world dream- lots of people around Xijinping are using this

term though not himself directly- The rise of china- how people talked about things up to about a year ago - Not just saying China will rise in the system but it is also saying it is China’s

duty to change the system (the current system is America which is unjust)- The Chinese rejuvenation would bring peace to the world - National mission to acquire lost greatness and its central place I nthe world - China’s dream interlinked with world dream - China’s world dream is a harmonious world of new world order that will lead

to common peace and prosperityTension between the China dream and the American dream

- China dream as a reaction to the American dream- Not different but opposite - China: national wealth nad power - America: personal freedom and happiness- China dream policy: tells people what they can dream has also negative

aspects a lot of the articles tell people what they CANNOT dream (cannot have American dream of freedom and liberty) convince people that chinese values are opposite (and hence good vs. the evil American values)

- Although US/China are closely interlinked economically and socially there is a cold war style sentiment especially in Beijing of China dream vs. American dream

China dream and World Dream- China dream demand chinese values- Developed by economists not philosophers- All udner heaven great harmony world is shared - This idea has come from public intellectuals (ring 5) Xijinpings china dream

and braoder notion of world dream has very close links to public intellectuals- There is continuity the previous president had ideas of building harmonious

society and harmonious world of common prosperity - Regional diplomacy forum speech repeat many of the same things - Different sources: one of which is Zhao Tingyang - Top think tank I nChina (one of the largest in the world)- From philosophy institute - Very directly inserted himself into networks of policy makers - Tianxia: all under heaven/empire/world/china? Very vague concept in

different concepts - Take the very ancient idea and reboot it for 21st century - Great alternative to current world order - Based on individual self interest - Global unified world

- Think of world in terms of the world- to solve global problems in a global way

- Says china will do this by transforming enemies into friends (not by conquering and killing) but convince them by attracting them soft power argument

- China’s contribution to world civilisation