IPCC Working Group II Summary For

Policymakers: Impacts, Adaptation and

VulnerabilityApril 6, 2007

www.ucsusa.org

Slides for Communicating IPCC

http://ncpa.com/generation-plants/2.html

Year

Me

an

Se

a L

ev

el R

ela

tiv

e to

1

990

(in

ch

es)

1900 1975 20001925 1950

SF Bay sea level risen ~ 7 Inches over last century

Coastal structure must account for

rising seas

-15

15

0

-5

-10

5

10

“Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity and duration of heat waves during the course of the century, with potential for adverse health impacts..”

IPCC, FAR 2007North America section

Sources: “Midwest suffers as heat bears down” Carla Johnson, Associated Press, appearing in Houston Chronicle, July 31, 2006 (July 21 total + 163).“California's Cattle Death Toll Surpases 25,000” USAgNet, July 31, 2006.. California Climate Change Center 2006

2-3 times as many heat-related mortality

2-2.5 times as many heat wave days

Lower Warming Range(3-5.5 °F)

Medium Warming Range

(5.5-8 °F)

4-6 times as many heat-related mortality

3-4 times as many heat wave daysHigher Warming Range

(8-10.5 °F)

4

5

2.5-4 times as many heat-related mortality

2-4 times as many heat wave days

California Heat waves

Summer 2006 in California --~ 160 deaths - greater than 25,000 cattle dead - impact on agricultural crops - impacts on energy supply and demand

Projections

California Climate ChangeScenarios Report

Produced by California Climate Change Center in collaboration with UCS

Eighteen papers have been released involving researchers from:

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC Berkeley,

UC Davis, Santa Clara University,LBNL, LLNL, US Forest Service, Oregon State University,Union of Concerned ScientistsState Agencies: ARB, DWR, and CEC.www.climatechoices.org,

www.energy.ca.gov,

Or

www.climatechange.ca.gov

Slide from California Air Resources Board presentation January 22, 2007

AB 32—California Global Warming Solutions Act (2006)

• Economy-wide GHG emission reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 (about a 30%)

• California Air Resources Board—lead agency. California EPA and Climate Action Team will oversee multi-agency coordination.

• Legislature may also play role through budget process or through legislation to require certain regulations

AB 32 Implementation

Slide from California Air Resources Board presentation January 22, 2007

Communicating With the Media

• Write a letter-to-the-editor (respond to stories out today)

• Monitor local news for climate contrarians and respond with letter-to-the-editor

• Make a call today to your newspaper’s environmental reporter and offer to help with background information or make a statement.

•Meet with an editorial board of your local paper

Remember your audience

Before talking to a reporter, develop some main messages and talking points

Keep it simple

Frame it in human terms

Tips for Interviews

Materials & Resources on UCS Website:

• IPCC Process Backgrounder, IPCC Flyer

• UCS brochure on key findings of WGI. WGII brochure available for download in a week

• UCS ppt presentation on key findings of WGI. WGII ppt slides available for download in about a week.

• SSI members will get an email notifying you when the WGII materials are available

IPCC Process

www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html

UCS IPCC Synthesis Materials (SSI password-protected site)

www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc

Tips on media and talking to policy makers

www.ucsusa.org/ssi

California Climate Impacts

www.climatechoices.org

For questions, to receive materials, and tell us what you are doing to amplify coverage of climate issues in California, email

ssi@ucsusa.org

WATER

•Many rivers that derive water at their source from melting glaciers or snow will have earlier peak runoff in Spring and an overall increase in run-off, at least in the short term.**

•The temporary increase in water flows will not always be welcome. For example, glacier melt in the Himalayas will increase flooding and rock avalanche risks, while flash flood risks will increase in inland areas in Europe.***

Temperatures are Relative to Today•Global average temperature increase in these slides is expressed as temperature rise above today.

•Add 0.8 degrees Celsius to convert these to temperature rise above pre-industrial (about 1750) levels.

•The numbers and figures in the summary for policymakers uses temperature rise above 1990 levels which is 0.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Thank you!

Questions

Links for US regional impacts:•Northeast: http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/index.html

•Great Lakes: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/

•California: http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html

•Gulf coast: http://www.ucsusa.org/gulf/

•Iowa: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/climate-change-in-the-hawkeye-state.html.

•Alaska: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/arctic-climate-impact-assessment.html.

References•The Summary for Policymakers released February 2, 2007, was the first contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the Working Group I technical report is titled Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis). Available at www.ipcc.ch.

•The Summary for Policymakers released April 6, 2007, was the second contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the Working Group II technical report is titled Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability). Available at www.ipcc.ch.

•For more background on IPCC history and process, visit www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html.

•For 4 page handout on WG1 that can accompany this presentation go to http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/ipcc-highlights1.html.

The IPCC based its projections on six emission scenarios, running each one through sophisticated climate simulation programs.

Gov

erna

nce

Development

Local

Global

EnvironmentalEconomic

A1 B1

B2A2Adapted from Arnell et al. (2004). Global Environmental Change, 14:3-20

A1BA1FIA1T

Population at 2100

Gov

erna

nce

Development

Local

Global

EnvironmentalEconomic

A1 B1

B2A2Adapted from Arnell et al. (2004). Global Environmental Change, 14:3-20

Gross Domestic Product Growth at 2100

Gov

erna

nce

Development

Local

Global

EnvironmentalEconomic

A1 B1

B2A2Adapted from Arnell et al. (2004). Global Environmental Change, 14:3-20

Energy Use at 2100

Gov

erna

nce

Development

Local

Global

EnvironmentalEconomic

A1 B1

B2A2Adapted from Arnell et al. (2004). Global Environmental Change, 14:3-20

Gov

erna

nce

Development

Local

Global

EnvironmentalEconomic

B1

B2A2Adapted from Arnell et al. (2004). Global Environmental Change, 14:3-20

A1B

A1FI

A1T

Technological Change at 2100

Country A

Country BCountry C

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

Wa

shin

gto

n P

ost N

OA

A

Wa

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gto

n

Projected Changes at the End of the 21st Century

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

Change in Precipitation for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999Dec – Feb Scenario A1B

More Dry More Wet