IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers

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Transcript of IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers

  1. 1. THE WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Aromar Revi IPCC Coordinating Lead Author Ch 8: Urban Areas [email protected] @AromarRevi
  2. 2. What is the IPCC? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It currently has 195 members. IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate Conference the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  3. 3. AR5: Working Group II: Highlights Scoping meeting to outline 30 chapters 1217 author nominations from 92 countries 60 Coordinating Lead Authors, 183 Lead Authors & 66 Review Editors from 70 countries & 436 Contributing authors from 54 countries Over 12,000 scientific references cited 1729 expert reviewers from 84 countries and 49 governments provided over 50,000 comments
  4. 4. CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
  5. 5. Working Group II AR5 report: Objectives Objectives of the WGII AR5: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,and Vulnerability report are to consider the: Vulnerability & exposure of human & natural systems Observed impacts & future risks of climate change Potential for and limits to adaptation
  6. 6. What is the Working Group II report about? The chapters of the report assess risks & opportunities for societies, economies, and ecosystems around the world. The 30-chapter report is divided into two volumes: Volume I focuses on global and sectoral aspects. Volume II chapters provide assessments on regions
  7. 7. What is new in this Report? 10 new chapters added in WGII AR5 to cover additional relevant topics Needs, options,experience in planning and implementation, opportunities, constraints, limits, and economics of adaptation. Livelihoods and poverty, human security, urban and rural areas have been added to cover socio- economic, cultural, and regional planning aspects Oceans have been more extensively covered in two new chapters.
  8. 8. SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance CLIMATE Natural Variability Anthropogenic Climate Change RISKHazards Exposure Vulnerability IMPACTS EMISSIONS and Land-use Change Core framing as a challenge in managing risks
  9. 9. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change. Risks are reduced substantially under the assessed scenario with the lowest temperature projections (RCP2.6 low emissions) compared to the highest temperature projections (RCP8.5 high emissions), particularly in the second half of the 21st century (very high confidence).
  10. 10. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions I 1. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.34 [RFC 1-5] 2. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.35 [RFC 2 and 3] 3. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.36 [RFC 2-4]
  11. 11. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions II 4. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.37 [RFC 2 and 3] 5. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.38 [RFC 2- 4] 6. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.39 [RFC 2 and 3]
  12. 12. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions II 7. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.40 [RFC 1, 2, and 4] 8. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.41 [RFC 1, 3, and 4]
  13. 13. Characterizing risks
  14. 14. Key Risks in Asia
  15. 15. A CHANGING WORLD WIDESPREAD OBSERVED IMPACTS
  16. 16. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - I In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence). Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to nongoing climate change. (high confidence).
  17. 17. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - II Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence). At present the world-wide burden of human ill-health from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified. (medium confidence). Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non- climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes (very high confidence). These differences shape differential risks from climate change.
  18. 18. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - III Impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability (very high confidence). Climate-related hazards exacerbate other stressors, often with negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for people living in poverty (high confidence). Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change (medium evidence, high agreement).
  19. 19. A CHANGING WORLD WIDESPREAD OBSERVED IMPACTS
  20. 20. r Risk Level with Current Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with High Adaptation Risk-Level Very Low Med Very High 4C 2C Present Long Term (2080-2100 Near Term (2030-2040 Risks for Low-Lying Coastal Areas Loss of Livelihoods, Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability SMALL ISLANDS Compounded Stress on Water Resources Reduced Crop Productivity and Livelihood and Food Security Vector- and Water- Borne Diseases AFRICA ASIA Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements Heat-Related Human Mortality Increased Drought- Related Water and Food Shortage Increased Losses and Impacts from Extreme Heat Events Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE Increased Water Restrictions Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure and Settlements Increased Risks to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems AUSTRALASIA Significant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems Increased Risks from Wildfires Heat-Related Human Mortality Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods NORTH AMERICA Reduced Water Availability and Increased Flooding and Landslides Reduced Food Production and Quality CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA Vector-Borne Diseases Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes Increased Mass Coral Bleaching and Mortality Coastal Inundation and Habitat Loss THE OCEAN Unprecedented Challenges, Especially from Rate of Change Risks for Ecosystems POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health and Well-Being
  21. 21. THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING MAGNITUDES OF WARMING INCREASE SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
  22. 22. Reasons for Concern I Unique and threatened systems: Some unique and threatened systems, including ecosystems and cultures, are already at risk from climate change (high confidence) Extreme weather events: Climate-change- related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence)
  23. 23. Reasons for Concern II Distribution of impacts: Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development. Risks are already moderate because of regionally differentiated climate-change impacts on crop production in particular (medium to high confidence) Global aggregate impacts: Risks of global aggregate impacts are moderate for additional warming between 1-2C, reflecting impacts to both Earths biodiversity and the overall global economy (medium confidence).
  24. 24. Reasons for Concern III Large-scale singular events: With increasing warming, some physical systems or ecosystems may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes. Risks associated with such tipping points become moderate between 0-1C additional warming, due to early warning signs that both warm-water coral reef and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts (medium confidence).
  25. 25. AROUND THE WORLD VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE
  26. 26. Freshwater resources Freshwater-related r