IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report De urgentie van klimaatverandering Leo Meyer Miliieudefensie Symposium...
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report De urgentie van klimaatverandering Leo Meyer Miliieudefensie Symposium Utrecht 31 oktober 2015
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Transcript of IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report De urgentie van klimaatverandering Leo Meyer Miliieudefensie Symposium...
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
De urgentie van klimaatverandering
Leo MeyerMiliieudefensie Symposium
Utrecht 31 oktober 2015
.”
Neerslag in winters 1971-2010 tov 1902-2010 (NOAA 2011)
“There is evidence that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict “ (PNAS March 2015)
“Fertile Crescent”
Bron: Polar science center 2015
Arctisch zee-ijsvolume verdwijnt met ca 15 % per 10 jaar
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Uit de IPCC-rapporten van 2013/2014
Key messages IPCC
➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear
➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
➜ We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
Global mean temperature change
Figure SPM.1
“Each of the past 3 decades has been the warmest since 1850”
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Recente update. Bron: Jos Hagelaars
Meer dan 90 % van de warmte verdwijnt in oceanen most of the heat
➜ More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean
➜ Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb
AR5 SYR
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM
CO2 is the main driver of global warming
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades
GH
G E
mis
sion
s [G
tCO
2
eq
/yr]
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Antropogenic forcings are extremely likely the cause of warming
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Projected climate changes
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system
Global glacier volume will further decrease
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises
Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century
AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Food and water shortages
Increased poverty
Increased displacement of people
Coastal flooding
AR5 WGII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Climate Change Poses Risk for Food ProductionPe
rcen
tag
e o
f yi e
l d
pro
j ect
i on
s
AR5 SYR SPM
18
Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8 0C over the 21st century…
Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
Jim Hansen and co-authors, July 2015:
Ice melt, sea level rise and super storms: evidence from paleo-climate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2◦ C global warming is highly dangerous
Kleine kansen met grote gevolgen = groot risico
Bron: Jevreva et al (2014), Upper limit Sea level Rise by2100, Environ.Res. Lett , 9 104008
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Global GHG emissions reduction of 40-70 % in 2050 compared to 2010
Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100
Global emissions to peak and start declining within next 5-15 years
AR5 WGIII SPMAmbitious mitigation is affordable
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount Used1870-2011:
1900GtCO2
Amount Remaining:
1000GtCO2
Total Carbon Budget:
2900GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM
Bron: Climate Action Tracker okt 2015
INDCs (pledges) voor Parijs
- 146 landen incl. alle grote spelers hebben hun plannen voor 2030 ingediend
- Samen 90 % van de broeikasgas emissies
- => meer dan verwacht
- => maar we zijn er nog (lang) niet!
- Bron: Volkskrant van 31 oktober 2015
G7 top juni 2015 Duitsland
