Iowa Poll: National security

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SELZER & COMPANY

PAGE 1

THE DES MOINES REGISTER / BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2130

400 Republican likely caucusgoers December 7-10, 2015

404 Democratic likely caucusgoers 2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and

Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters

Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats in the Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions

PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.

Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?

100 Yes Continue

- No Terminate

- Not sure

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,

probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or

the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Definitely

attend

Democratic

caucus

Probably

attend

Democratic

caucus

Definitely

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably not

attend a

caucus

Don’t know

which caucus

will attend Not sure

Dec-15 - - 48 52 - - - Oct-15 - - 46 54 - - -

Aug-15 - - 47 53 - - -

May-15 - - 36 64 - - -

Jan-15 - - 40 60 - - -

Oct-14 - - 39 61 - - -

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,

probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or

the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Definitely

attend

Democratic

caucus

Probably

attend

Democratic

caucus

Definitely

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably not

attend a

caucus

Don’t know

which caucus

will attend Not sure

Dec-15 48 52 - - - - - Oct-15 53 47 - - - - -

Aug-15 38 62 - - - - -

Jun-15 45 55 - - - - -

May-15 39 61 - - - - -

Jan-15 42 58 - - - - -

Oct-14 39 61 - - - - -

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Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a

Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?


Attended

Republican

caucus in the past

Attended

Democratic

caucus in the past

Attended

both

First

caucus Not sure

Dec-15 60 4 12 24 - Oct-15 66 3 13 17 1

Aug-15 64 3 12 21 1

May-15 68 4 11 17 1

Jan-15 67 1 15 17 -

Oct-14 72 2 11 14 1

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a

Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?


Attended

Republican

caucus in the past

Attended

Democratic

caucus in the past

Attended

both

First

caucus Not sure

Dec-15 4 65 7 25 - Oct-15 3 70 8 19 -

Aug-15 3 65 12 19 1

May-15 3 68 9 18 1

Jan-15 7 61 11 21 -

Oct-14 12 63 12 12 1

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Now, I’m going to mention some prominent politicians [before Dec-15: prominent Democrats], including [Before Aug-15: people

talked about as possible] candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings

are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the

person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first and

Trump will go last.)


Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Barack Obama, president of the United

States Dec-15 87* 11 50 36 5 6 2

Oct-15 90 7* 51 39 4 4 2

Aug-15 88 9 43 45 5 4 2

Jun-15 91 7 44 47 5 2 2

May-15 89 9 49 40 6 3 2

Jan-15 86 13 49 37 5 8 1

Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state Dec-15 82 14 43 39 8 6 4 Oct-15 85 14 39 46 8 6 2

Aug-15 77 19 27 50 10 9 4

Jun-15 88 10 30 58 6 4 2

May-15 86* 12* 39 46 7 6 2

Jan-15 84 15 46 38 7 8 1

Oct-14 76 19 43 33 8 11 5

Martin O’Malley, former governor of

Maryland Dec-15 43 15* 7 36 9 5 42

Oct-15 43 17* 8 35 14 4 39

Aug-15 33 7* 8 25 5 3 60

May-15 20* 8 4 17 5 3 72

Jan-15 13 9 2 11 6 3 78

Oct-14 13 9 2 11 7 2 78

Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from

Vermont Dec-15 80 12* 42 38 7 4 9

Oct-15 82 10* 42 40 6 3 8

Aug-15 73 8 39 34 4 4 19

Jun-15 57 4 27 30 3 1 39

May-15 47 12 23 24 8 4 41

Jan-15 37 12 17 20 8 4 51

Oct-14 29 13 10 19 8 5 58

Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from

Massachusetts Dec-15 53 11* 31 22 7 5 35

May-15 62 9 31 31 6 3 28

Jan-15 58 11 30 28 6 5 31

Oct-14 44 11 23 21 6 5 45

Donald Trump, candidate for the

Republican nomination Dec-15 8* 91* 2 5 15 75 2

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best

estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly

favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.

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SELZER & COMPANY

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Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first

choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)


First

Choice

Second

Choice Combined

Hillary Clinton 48 27 75

Martin O’Malley 4 19 23

Bernie Sanders 39 33 72

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent

says the word “uncommitted.”) 6 3

Not sure 2 9

No first choice 8

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first

choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers First Second Combined

Hillary Clinton Dec-15 48 27 75 Oct-15 42 31 73

Aug-15 37 23 60

Jun-15 50 18 68

May-15 57 15 72

Jan-15 56 15 71

Martin O’Malley Dec-15 4 19 23 Oct-15 2 6 8

Aug-15 3 8 11

Jun-15 2 10 12

May-15 2 3 5

Jan-15 1 3 4

Bernie Sanders Dec-15 39 33 72 Oct-15 37 23 60

Aug-15 30 20 50

Jun-15 24 20 44

May-15 16 13 29

Jan-15 5 6 11


says the word “uncommitted.”)

Dec-15 6 3 Oct-15 3 3

Aug-15 6 3

Jun-15 7 8

May-15 6 6

Jan-15 4 3

Not sure Dec-15 2 9 Oct-15 3 7

Aug-15 8 6

Jun-15 16 19

May-15 8 13

Jan-15 6 8

No first choice Dec-15 8 Oct-15 6

Aug-15 13

Jun-15 23

May-15 14

Jan-15 10

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When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or

could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first choice”

have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)

Among all Dem CGs

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=404 ±4.9% pts 53 46 1 Oct-15 n=402 ±4.9% pts 42 58 -




Among Clinton supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=205 ±6.9% pts 64 35 1 Oct-15 n=176 ±7.4% pts 46 54 -




Among Sanders supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=149 ±8.1% pts 55 45 - Oct-15 n=138 ±8.4% pts 46 53 1

If Bernie Sanders were to announce before the caucuses that Elizabeth Warren would be his running mate as vice

president, would you support Sanders as your first choice, second choice, or would you not support him?

All Dem CGs

n=404

±4.9% pts

Clinton

supporters

n=205

±6.9% pts

Sanders

supporters

n=149

±8.1% pts

39 7 87 Support as first choice

34 62 3 Support as second choice

14 21 1 Would not support Sanders

13 11 8 Not sure

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I have some questions comparing [HILLARY CLINTON], [MARTIN O’MALLEY], and [BERNIE SANDERS].

Which one do you think: (Rotate list.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Clinton O’Malley Sanders Not sure

Has the best temperament to be president 49 9 33 9

Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin 56 2 27 15

Would work most effectively with Congress 45 9 34 12

Has the most appropriate life experience to be president 60 2 29 9

Knows the most about how to get things done 56 4 32 9

Cares the most about people like you 38 3 49 9

Has the best stance on gun control 36 8 27 29

Will fight hardest for the middle class 36 1 56 6

Will do the most to rein in the power of Wall Street 29 2 57 12

Would be best at managing the economy 51 5 34 9

Is the most honest and trustworthy 31 6 52 11

Can best combat Islamic terrorism 60 4 18 18

Would make the best commander in chief 55 3 28 13

I’m going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or

disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Agree Disagree

Not

Sure

Supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 23 71 6

Voted for the bailout of Wall Street banks when they were failing in 2008 40 50 9

Wants to end most free trade agreements, including the North American

Free Trade Agreement and the new trade agreement with Pacific Rim

nations 34 45 21

Voted against holding gun manufacturers legally responsible for mass

shootings 32 61 6

Wants to break up large Wall Street banks 78 14 8

Wants to legalize marijuana 61 30 9

Supports the nuclear deal with Iran 62 22 15

Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law 53 32 15

Wants to raise the highest income tax rate to over 50% 43 45 12

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SELZER & COMPANY

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Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me

if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know

enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)


Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida Dec-15 39* 54 6 32 32 22 7 Oct-15 50 43 14 36 25 18 7

Aug-15 45* 50 10 36 31 19 5

May-15 43 45 11 32 27 18 13

Jan-15 46 43 17 29 25 18 11

Oct-14 50 28 9 41 19 9 22

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon Dec-15 72 22 28 44 13 9 6 Oct-15 84 12 53 31 7 5 4

Aug-15 79 8 46 33 6 2 13

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from

Maryland

May-15 56 15 24 32 10 5 29

Jan-15 50 12 28 22 9 3 38

Oct-14 41 8 24 17 4 4 51

Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey Dec-15 46 42* 8 38 24 19 11 Oct-15 39* 49 6 32 28 21 12

Aug-15 29 59 5 24 36 23 12

May-15 28* 58 6 21 39 19 14

Jan-15 36 54 7 29 32 22 10

Oct-14 39 45 8 31 29 16 16

Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas Dec-15 73 19* 43 30 12 6 9 Oct-15 61 26 28 33 15 11 13

Aug-15 61 24 29 32 17 7 15

May-15 59 20 20 39 13 7 21

Jan-15 58 21 22 36 14 7 21

Oct-14 52 18 20 32 11 7 30

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-

Packard Dec-15 52 33* 12 40 22 10 15

Oct-15 66 22 26 40 13 9 12

Aug-15 64 15 31 33 8 7 21

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-

Packard and candidate for the U.S.

Senate in California

May-15 41* 19* 13 27 12 8 40

Jan-15 15 19 4 11 13 6 66

Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from

South Carolina Dec-15 16 53 1 15 31 22 31

Oct-15 18 53 3 14 27 26 29

Aug-15 15 59* 2 13 35 25 26

May-15 22* 38 4 19 23 15 40

Mike Huckabee, former governor of

Arkansas Dec-15 53 38 16 37 26 12 9

Oct-15 61 33 18 43 22 11 6

Aug-15 61 30* 17 44 21 10 9

May-15 61 30 21 40 21 9 9

Jan-15 66 28 28 38 21 7 6

Oct-14 59 30 23 36 23 7 11

John Kasich, governor of Ohio Dec-15 19 46 5 14 31 15 34 Oct-15 31* 33* 8 22 22 12 36

Aug-15 33* 22 10 22 17 5 45

May-15 25 16* 7 18 11 4 59

Jan-15 22 14 7 15 10 4 64

Oct-14 17 7 3 14 5 2 76

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Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky Dec-15 37 50* 9 28 30 19 14 Oct-15 43* 48* 12 30 29 18 10

Aug-15 39* 49 11 29 31 18 12

May-15 55 34 16 39 24 10 11

Jan-15 64 25 25 39 18 7 11

Oct-14 59 24 21 38 18 6 17

Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida Dec-15 70 21 24 46 15 6 9 Oct-15 70* 20 26 43 12 8 10

Aug-15 67 20 24 43 15 5 13

May-15 60 17 20 40 12 5 23

Jan-15 57 20 16 41 15 5 23

Oct-14 54 16 14 40 12 4 30

Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from

Pennsylvania Dec-15 42 43* 8 34 28 14 16

Oct-15 51 34* 12 39 21 14 15

Aug-15 48* 37* 11 38 26 10 15

May-15 56 28 18 38 19 9 16

Jan-15 57 30 16 41 22 8 13

Oct-14 52 30 14 38 20 10 18

Donald Trump, a businessman from New

York Dec-15 57 38 25 32 17 21 5

Oct-15 59 37 27 32 19 18 5

Donald Trump, businessman and

television personality

Aug-15 61* 35 26 34 16 19 4

May-15 27 63* 7 20 31 33 10

Jan-15 26 68 4 22 36 32 6

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best

estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly

favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.

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SELZER & COMPANY

PAGE 9

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as

No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers First Second Combined

Jeb Bush 6 5 11

Ben Carson 13 14 27

Chris Christie 3 3 6

Ted Cruz 31 20 51

Carly Fiorina 1 4 5

Jim Gilmore - - -

Lindsey Graham - - -

Mike Huckabee 3 5 8

John Kasich 2 2 4

George Pataki - - -

Rand Paul 3 3 6

Marco Rubio 10 14 24

Rick Santorum 1 2 3

Donald Trump 21 14 35



3 3

Not sure 4 4

No first choice 7

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question code No first choice

and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers First Second Combined

Jeb Bush Dec-15 6 5 11 Oct-15 5 5 10

Aug-15 6 4 10

May-15 9 7 16

Jan-15 8 7 15

Ben Carson Dec-15 13 14 27 Oct-15 28 19 47

Aug-15 18 14 32

May-15 10 5 15

Jan-15 9 10 19

Chris Christie Dec-15 3 3 6 Oct-15 1 2 3

Aug-15 2 1 3

May-15 4 4 8

Jan-15 4 3 7

Ted Cruz Dec-15 31 20 51 Oct-15 10 9 19

Aug-15 8 10 18

May-15 5 8 13

Jan-15 5 6 11

Carly Fiorina Dec-15 1 4 5 Oct-15 4 13 17

Aug-15 5 11 16

May-15 2 3 5

Jan-15 1 1 2

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First Second Combined

Jim Gilmore Dec-15 - - - Oct-15 - - -

Aug-15 - - -

Lindsey Graham Dec-15 - - - Oct-15 - - -

Aug-15 - - -

May-15 1 1 2*

Mike Huckabee Dec-15 3 5 8 Oct-15 3 3 6

Aug-15 4 4 8

May-15 9 8 17*

Jan-15 10 7 17

John Kasich Dec-15 2 2 4 Oct-15 2 2 4

Aug-15 2 3 5

May-15 2 1 3

Jan-15 1 1 2

George Pataki Dec-15 - - - Oct-15 - - -

Aug-15 - - -

May-15 - 1 1

Rand Paul Dec-15 3 3 6 Oct-15 5 4 9

Aug-15 4 3 7

May-15 10 5 15

Jan-15 14 9 23

Marco Rubio Dec-15 10 14 24 Oct-15 9 11 20

Aug-15 6 8 14

May-15 6 12 18

Jan-15 3 8 11

Rick Santorum Dec-15 1 2 3 Oct-15 2 1 3

Aug-15 1 2 3

May-15 6 6 12

Jan-15 4 6 10

Donald Trump Dec-15 21 14 35 Oct-15 19 9 28

Aug-15 23 9 32

May-15 4 2 6

Jan-15 1 1 2



Dec-15 3 3 Oct-15 3 2

Aug-15 5 1

May-15 4 2

Jan-15 2 1

Not sure Dec-15 4 4 Oct-15 7 2

Aug-15 5 4

May-15 7 5

Jan-15 5 6

No first choice Dec-15 7 Oct-15 11

Aug-15 10

May-15 11

Jan-15 7

*“Combined” does not match the “ever/never” question below for certain candidates due to rounding.

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could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first

choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)

Among all Rep CGs

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=400 ±4.9% pts 33 66 1 Oct-15 n=401 ±4.9% pts 22 78 1




Among Cruz supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=120 ±9.0% pts 43 55 2 Oct-15 n=36 ±16.6% pts 37 63 -




Among Trump supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=86 ±10.6% pts 45 55 - Oct-15 n=80 ±11.0% pts 32 67 1




Among Carson supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Dec-15 n=49 ±14.1% pts 34 61 4 Oct-15 n=109 ±9.4% pts 15 83 1

Do you think you will have your mind made up at least a week before the caucus, or will you still be deciding the

week leading up to the caucus?

All Rep CGs

Cruz

supporters

Trump

supporters

Carson

supporters

n=400

±4.9% pts

n=120

±9.0% pts

n=86

±10.6% pts

n=49

±14.1% pts

33 43 45 34 Mind is already made up (Code only if “mind is

made up” in previous question) 30 30 31 26 Will make mind up at least a week before the caucus

32 23 22 35 Will still be deciding the week leading up to the

caucus

5 5 1 4 Not sure

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(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) I’m going to mention the candidates who are

not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or

would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If

selected as first or second choice, code as “1st or 2nd choice and do not ask.)


Ever Never Not sure

1st or 2nd

choice

Jeb Bush Dec-15 45 41 3 11

Oct-15 48 40 2 10

Aug-15 50 39 2 9

May-15 38 35 10 16

Ben Carson Dec-15 55 17 2 26

Oct-15 41 10 3 47

Aug-15 50 12 6 32

May-15 47 18 20 15

Chris Christie Dec-15 51 40 3 7

Oct-15 45 48 4 3

Aug-15 44 48 5 3

May-15 34 45 13 8

Ted Cruz Dec-15 31 17 2 50

Oct-15 49 27 5 19

Aug-15 54 24 4 18

May-15 49 21 18 13

Carly Fiorina Dec-15 57 33 5 5

Oct-15 54 23 6 17

Aug-15 55 20 9 16

May-15 38 27 30 5

Jim Gilmore Dec-15 14 59 28 -

Oct-15 17 59 24 -

Aug-15 20 51 28 -

Lindsey Graham Dec-15 29 61 9 -

Oct-15 25 63 11 1

Aug-15 30 57 13 -

May-15 29 43 25 3

Mike Huckabee Dec-15 57 32 3 8

Oct-15 60 31 3 6

Aug-15 60 28 4 8

May-15 51 24 9 16

John Kasich Dec-15 32 53 11 4

Oct-15 36 45 14 4

Aug-15 41 40 14 5

May-15 29 28 40 3

George Pataki Dec-15 19 66 15 -

Oct-15 19 63 18 -

Aug-15 26 57 17 -

May-15 20 41 38 1

Rand Paul Dec-15 47 44 4 5

Oct-15 43 45 4 9

Aug-15 43 43 6 8

May-15 45 30 10 15

Marco Rubio Dec-15 56 19 2 23

Oct-15 55 20 5 20

Aug-15 60 19 6 15

May-15 49 18 15 18

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Ever Never Not sure

1st or 2nd

choice

Rick Santorum Dec-15 54 40 3 3

Oct-15 53 38 5 4

Aug-15 56 35 6 3

May-15 51 26 11 12

Donald Trump Dec-15 33 30 3 34

Oct-15 35 34 3 27

Aug-15 36 29 3 32

May-15 28 58 8 6

*“Combined” in the horserace question does not match “1st/2nd choice” for certain candidates in the ever/never

question due to rounding.

All other things being equal, which of the following is a more attractive candidate for president at this time: (Read and

rotate list.)

Rep CG

19 A governor, who has worked with a legislature and who has been responsible for balancing a budget

30 A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national security and international relations and diplomatic issues

39 A government outsider who has handled complex issues and managed teams

12 Not sure

I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON], [TED CRUZ], [MARCO RUBIO], and [DONALD TRUMP].

Which one do you think: (Rotate candidate names and rotate list.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers Carson Cruz Rubio Trump

Not

sure

Has the best temperament to be president 23 34 25 11 7

Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin 10 31 13 34 13

Would work most effectively with Congress 18 31 29 12 10

Has the most appropriate life experience to be president 10 34 19 24 13

Knows the most about how to get things done 6 22 13 49 10

Cares the most about people like you 24 28 19 17 12

Has the right values to lead the nation 22 34 18 16 10

Would be best at managing the economy 7 24 10 50 8

Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem 5 22 15 50 8

Can best combat Islamic terrorism 5 32 13 35 16

Would make the best commander in chief 12 34 18 25 11

Would do the most to make all abortion illegal 23 32 7 6 32

Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit 6 27 10 48 10

Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton 11 26 20 30 14

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Have you attended any events hosted by Republican candidates this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many different

candidates have you attended at least one event?

Rep CG

2 10 or more

1 8-9

1 6-7

4 4-5

9 2-3

9 One

73 No, have not attended any candidate events this season

- Not sure

Have you signed pledge cards for any Republican candidates in this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many

candidates have you signed pledge cards?

Rep CG

- 10 or more

- 8-9

- 6-7

- 4-5

1 2-3

3 One

95 No, have not signed any pledge cards this caucus season

- Not sure

Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican?

Rep CG

29 Establishment

47 Anti-establishment

13 Neither (VOL)

11 Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to

support: (Rotate list.)

Rep CG

24 Tea party

32 Evangelical conservative

35 Mainstream Republican

10 Not sure

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PAGE 15

I’m going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or

disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers Agree Disagree

Not

Sure

Says climate change is a hoax 57 35 7

Wants to deport 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally 54 37 9

Wants to stop all U.S. resettlement of refugees from the civil war in Syria 67 25 9

Wants to make all abortion illegal, without exceptions for rape, incest, or to save

the life of the mother 40 56 5

Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law 49 35 16

Supports a tax reform plan that cuts taxes on every American, including the very

wealthiest 74 21 4

Wants to send at least 20,000 troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria 61 28 11

Wants to repeal financial reform laws enacted after the banking crisis in 2008 58 20 22

Would be willing to shoot down Russian planes if they violated a no-fly zone in

Syria 44 41 15

Wants to abolish the Internal Revenue Service 61 31 8

If Donald Trump were to think he lost the nomination because he had not been treated fairly and decided to run as an

independent, do you think you would or would not consider supporting him? (If consider, ask:) Do you think you would

strongly consider supporting him, or just consider?

Rep CG Dem CG

17 3 Strongly consider

13 4 Just consider

64 91 Would not consider

5 2 Not sure

On a different topic now, which of the following best reflects your view of a potential U.S. role in degrading and

destroying ISIS, the Islamic State? (Read list; do not rotate.)

Rep CG Dem CG

7 26 This is not our fight, and nations in the Middle East should lead, with the U.S. providing

intelligence support but staying out of the fight.

34 49 The U.S. has a role in actively supporting nations and groups in the region with weapons and, if

needed, committing limited U.S. military personnel in training, intelligence, and support roles.

55 20 This is a battle for civilization vs. barbarism, and therefore it is our fight, and the U.S. should

commit whatever military forces are necessary to eradicate the Islamic State.

4 6 Not sure

Which of the following do you think is the best approach for Iowa to take with refugees fleeing the civil war in Syria?

(Read list; do not rotate.)

Rep CG Dem CG

28 83 For those who have passed federal screening, Iowans should welcome and resettle refugees as

we have done in the past

18 6 Iowans should welcome Christian refugees from Syria but fight against resettling others

47 9 Iowans should fight against resettling any Syrian refugees here

7 2 Not sure

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When it comes to the Islamic faith, which of the following is closer to your view? (Rotate options.)

Rep CG Dem CG

38 9 Islam is an inherently violent religion, which leads its followers to violent acts

56 87 Islam is an inherently peaceful religion, but there are some who twist its teachings to justify

violence

6 4 Not sure

Are you mostly confident or mostly not confident the U.S. has done enough to protect the homeland against an attack

similar to what happened in Paris?

Rep CG Dem CG

20 66 Mostly confident

78 27 Mostly not confident

3 7 Not sure

Which of the following do you think did the most to destabilize the Middle East and allow the rise of the Islamic State?

(Read list. Rotate.)

Rep CG Dem CG

18 63 The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, ordered by President George W. Bush and supported by a

majority of members of Congress

18 10 The Obama administration’s decision not to help Syrian rebels in their civil war to remove

Syrian president Assad from power

54 17 The Obama administration’s decision to remove the last U.S. troops from Iraq at the end of

2011

10 10 Not sure

Do you think there should or should not be a complete ban on Muslims entering the U.S. as immigrants for the

foreseeable future?*

Rep CG Dem CG

n=355 n=355

±5.2% pts ±5.2% pts

49 11 Should

43 87 Should not

8 2 Not sure *Question added after poll was in field

Regardless of how you plan to caucus in February, which of the following comes closest to your view of Donald Trump:

(Read list.)

Rep CG Dem CG

17 48 I didn’t think Donald Trump was serious when he announced he would run for president, and I

still think he is just playing some sort of game

38 34 I did not think Donald Trump was serious when he got into the race, but I think he’s serious

now

43 15 I’ve always thought Donald Trump was a serious candidate, and I still do

2 3 Not sure

____________________

SELZER & COMPANY

PAGE 17

Regardless of how you plan to caucus in February, which of the following comes closest to your view of Donald Trump:

(Read list.)

Rep CG Dem CG

8 62 I’ve never liked anything Donald Trump has said in the course of his campaign

40 27 Initially, I thought Donald Trump said some things that needed to be said, but he has gone too

far

50 9 I like that Donald Trump says things that need to be said, and I hope he continues

2 2 Not sure

Do you think there are too many, too few, or about the right number of guns in the U.S.?

Rep CG Dem CG

12 72 Too many

39 6 Too few

40 15 About the right number

9 7 Not sure

Which of the following better reflects your view of recent mass shootings in the U.S.?

Rep CG Dem CG

30 6 Nothing can be done to reduce the number of mass shootings that wouldn’t violate our 2nd

Amendment rights, so we should all work to make ourselves more secure

56 30 While care should be taken to preserve 2nd Amendment rights, more should be done to keep

guns away from people linked to the terrorist watch list

9 60 Much tougher gun control laws are needed to reduce the number of mass shootings in the U.S.

6 4 Not sure

Compared to:

Study #2128 October 16-19, 2015

401 Republican likely caucusgoers 2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and

402 Democratic likely caucusgoers congressional district to conform to active voters

Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2125 August 23-26, 2015



404 Democratic likely caucusgoers in the Iowa voter registration list

Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2122 June 19-22, 2015

401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa 1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters

in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118 May 25-29, 2015



437 Democratic likely caucusgoers in the Iowa voter registration list

Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

____________________

SELZER & COMPANY

PAGE 18

Study #2113 January 26-29, 2015


401 Democratic likely caucusgoers congressional district to conform to active voters

Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104 October 1-7, 2014

425 Republican likely caucusgoers 3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform

426 Democratic likely caucusgoers to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted December 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des

Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend

the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016

Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by

telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter

registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees

each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were

repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the

percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of

respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

Iowa Poll: National security

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