Roberto SiagriPresident & CEOEUROTECH Spa

Udine 20 Giugno, 2013

Accelerating change, Moore’s law and human ingenuity

45th Annual Meeting

The Eurotech Engine

EurotechImagine.

Build.Succeed.

NanoPCPervasive

Computersfor distributed

intelligence and to enable

the IoT

HPCHigh

Performance Computer for Data center,

Science, Engineering

2

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“The most profoundtechnologies are those that

disappear.They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until theyare indistinguishable from it “

The Computer for the 21st Century

"The Computer for the 21st Century", Scientific American,

Vol. 265 No.9, pp. 66-75, 1991

Mark Weiser

4

’92: From where we started

Reducing Overall ComplexityC

ost

Time

HW

SW

5

Wirth’s law: Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster

Moore's law : the number of transistors doubles approx. every 18 months

Value follow simplicity

The Essence of Eurotech's strategy

Finding the right PLATFORM that reduce Customer’s TCO and TTM

It's a matter of SW vs. HW

Cos

t

Time

HW COST

SW COST

-$

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For Embedded the PC

is the platformchoosen by

Eurotech

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The power of industrystandards

20 years of progress

’92: A Personal Computeron the palm

of a hand

’12: A Personal Computeron half the palm

of a hand

16Mhz-1MB

1,6Ghz – 2GB RAM 8

X 10.000

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Less

More

Malthus was wrong. He forgot a factor: our continual ability to do more and more with less and less because of

Technological Innovation

R. Buckminster Fuller1895 - 1983

“The principle of doing ever more with ever less

Space, Time, Matter and Energy

per each given level of functional performance”

Innovation moves from material to abstract

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MIPS vs. Time

SpaceTimeEnergyMatter

Information

Computation

STEM compression :the Engine of Innovation

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Mainframes

MiniComputers

ParallelComputers

Computers Food chain : part 1Once upon a time ……….

VectorComputers

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Computer Food Chain : part 2the new Computer Ecosystem

PervasiveComputer

Computer Network/Cluster

MiniComputerMainframe

VectorComputers

ParallelComputers

Dave Patterson, UC/Berkeley

RIP RIP RIP RIP

Componentization

“The rate of evolution ofany system is dependentupon the organization ofits subsystems”

Theory of Hierarchy and ComponentizationHerbert A. Simon 1916-2001

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Amdahl’s Law

APE project

1999: 0,1 TeraFlops per rack

QCD needs Supercomputers

APEmille

2005: 1 TeraFlops per rackAPEnext

SISSAMCA 2013

GPUs vs CPUs

comparing GPUs with CPUs over the last

decade in terms FLOPs, we see that

GPUs appear to be far ahead of the CPUs

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Aurora Tigon: 140 TeraFlops per Rack

CPUs and GPUs power Aurora Tigon HPC cluster to 3.2 GFLOPS/W

Sets World Record for Energy Efficiency

At the Top of the GREEN500

11000 CO2 tons saved1500 cars that do not circulate for 1 year

11500 saved trees15 Km2 of rain forest left untouched

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Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration

IDEAS are the new “ultimate” raw material

Moore's Law Miniaturization ‘65 Transistors increase 2 times over 18 months

Metcalfe's Law Interconnection ‘93 Value of a network increases with the square of the

number of connections

Gilder's Law Quantization ’00 Bandwidth increases 1,5 times over 12 months

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• Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the Internet at all times

• Massive computation available on demand through the CLOUD

• Tiny Computers embedded in

– the environment,– our clothing,– our body

Augmented real reality

Computers are becoming pervasive and ubiquitous

THE PLANETARY COMPUTATIONAL EXOSKELETON

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Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)

Geosphere/Geogenesis(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis(Biologic-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)

Le Phénomène Humain, 1955

The noosphere is a "planetary thinking network" an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback

and planetary communication

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin(1881-1955)

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Internet of Things: Embedded PC and IT integration

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What IoT needsAn universal infrastructure where data can exist anywhere and be available to any device with

some form of consistency guarantee

Wearable

NotebookAppliance

SensorSensor

Server

ClusterNetwork

Camera

IoT : i.e. from Embedded to Pervasive computing

Cos

t

Time

HW COST

SW COST

-$For the IoT

the Cloud is the platform

choosen by Eurotech

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Finding the right PLATFORM that reduce Customer’s TCO and TTM

Again, it's a matter of scalable SW vs. scalable HW

“A Period of Combinatorial Innovation”In the 1800s, it was interchangeable parts.

In the 1920s, it was electronics.

In the 1970s, it was integrated circuits.

In the 1990s, it was the VLSI functions.

In the 2010s, it was the SW Components.

Hal Varian Google Chief Economist

The Internet of ThingsModern M2M Systems

Technology advances and standardization lead to a commoditization of distributed systems

Where today’s solutions differ:

• Scaling up to larger applications & implementations• Scaling down to smaller applications & implementation• Interconnecting solutions on a platform level• Much lower upfront investment• Much faster implementation / deployment• Much better TCO

APIs, Dashboards, Console, etc.

The Internet of ThingsEurotech Offer

Consumers of Data

M2MInfrastructureSolutionTechnologyBuilding Block

M2MIntegration Platform

Multi-Service

Gateways

Producers of Data

Standard Interfaces

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Calm Technology

Mark Weiser

Ubiquitous computing just might help to free our minds from unnecessary work, and..

.. Connect us to the fundamental challenge that humans have always had:

to understand the patterns in the universe

and ourselves within them.

SISSAMCA 2013

Addressing the increase in Software Complexity

Per

form

ance

/Pro

duct

ivity

Complexity and Size

AssemblyLimited reuse of written code

PC –ProgrammingEasy A lot of available programsBackward compatible

Cloud based appsMultitenantMesh-upScalable

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SISSAMCA 2013

In general the growth is exponential

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Aurora & Aurora TigonEurotech PETAscale HPC

Eurotech is part ofDEEP

the EU EXAscaleResearch Project

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Growth

Time

today today + 3 years

One order of magnitudechange

“.. is really about human activity, it’s about vision, it’s about what you’re allowed to believe… People are limited by their beliefs, they limit themselves by what

they allow themselves to believe is possible."Carver Mead

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

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1949: …a panel of expert

…. predicted that some day,

a computer as powerful as ENIAC would contain: only 1,500 vacuum tubes; weigh 3,000 pounds; and require 10 kilowatts of power to operate. Such a machine would be about the size and weight of an automobile with power consumption to match.

Popular Mechanics

March 1949

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…we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century,it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate)

Law of accelerating returns

Ray KurzweilThe singularity is near

Sustainable Growth vs. Saturation

S curves get old

Time

Performance

Evolution phase

Take-off

Research,Invention phase

Return reduction New technology

Existingtechnology

New Evolution phase

36Each new TECHNOLOGICAL substrate is more efficient than the previous one

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clock speed blocked

CPU clock speed for a single CPU hovering

around 3.4Ghz.

…but the computational power per die is growing

Although single CPUs have been limited, due to the rise of multi-core

machines, the computational power per

die has still been increasing

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SISSAMCA 2013

CPU Trends

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SISSAMCA 2013

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Cal

cula

tions

per

seco

nd

The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), by Ray Kurzweil

One insect brain

One mouse brain

1040

1035

1030

1025

1020

1015

1010

105

10

10-5

$1,000 of computing buys…

One human brain

All human brains

The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-2100

SISSAMCA 201341

The fundamental limits of computatio

the Fundamental Limits of Computation

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Ultimate (zetta-wattaflop) Computing Machine according to Seth Lloyd

a 1-kg computer compressed to the black-hole limit can perform :

1051 ops/sec

on its: 1016 bits, updated at a rate of about : 1035 update/sec

Seth Lloyd - “Ultimate physical limits to computation” Nature, 2000

Quantum Physics Theory

Super computers nowadays achieve

1015 ops/sec

with a pace of Moore’s law: x2 every 1.5 years technology needs~ 250 years to reach these limits

The Benchmark…

~ 1016 ops/sec

25 Watt

1350 cm3

1500 gr

SurfaceI7 CPU: 160 mm2Brain : ~ 160 000 mm2

Assuming an I7 of the same surface

Operations per SecondI7 CPU: 10^11 Ops x 1000 = 10^14Brain : ~ 10^16 Ops

PowerI7 CPU: 77 Watts x 1000 = 77 K WattsBrain : 25 Watts

Computing Platforms in 2030• Personal Computer [$1000]

– 10^10 Flops/sec in 2010 ⇒ 10^16 – 10^17 Flops/sec

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• Supercomputer [$100,000,000]– 10^15 Flops/sec in 2010 ⇒10^21 – 10^22 Flops/sec

• Number of Computers [global population ~10^10]– SCs ⇒ 10^-8 –10^-6 per person ⇒ 10^2 – 10^4 systems– PCs ⇒ .1x – 10x per person ⇒10^9 – 10^11 systems– Embedded ⇒ 10x – 10^5x per person ⇒ 10^11 – 10^15 systems– Nanocomputers ⇒ 0x – 10^10 per person ⇒ 0 – 10^20 systems

Available Flops Planet-wide10^24 – 10^30 Flops/sec

[assuming classical models of computation]

Many Paradigm Changes• Vertical Integration

– High core-cache bandwidth (new scaling roadmap for 15 years)

• Heat Removal– Liquid cooling and heat re-use

• New Materials– Carbon Nanostructured

• Supply and Cooling area vs. Transistors area– Electrochemical power supply

• Production process– 3D printing

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Annual meeting American Physical Society 1959

Still … Plenty of Room at the Bottom… But there is plenty of room to

make them [computers]smaller.

There is nothing that I can see in the physical law that says the computer elements cannot be made enormously smaller than they are now.….

R. FEYNMAN

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The only stable component in nature

is the change!

The tentative fourth law of thermodynamics. S.E. Joergensen

Thank you for your attention