Investor presentation -_january_-_final

23
January 2012 TSX: FM LSE: FQM LuSE: FQMZ www.first-quantum.com A Rapidly Growing Metals & Mining Company 1

Transcript of Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Page 1: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

January 2012

TSX: FM LSE: FQM LuSE: FQMZ www.first-quantum.com

A Rapidly Growing

Metals & Mining

Company

1

Page 2: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Some of the statements contained in the following material are forward looking statements and not statement of facts. Such statements are based on the current beliefs of management, as well as assumptions based on management information currently available. Forward-looking statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results. Readers must rely on their own evaluation of these uncertainties.

Note: all dollar amounts in US dollars unless otherwise indicated

Cautionary Note Concerning Forward-Looking Statements

2

Page 3: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

First Quantum - A Compelling Investment

A mid-tier and growing mining and metals company currently producing LME grade "A" copper cathode, copper in concentrate, nickel and gold.

A Compelling Investment:

— Solid track record • Operational - developed five mines, within nine years, on schedule and within

budget

• Return to shareholders - delivered an annualized return of ~32% since 2000

— A significant and growing copper producer • Increasing annual production capacity to over 1 million tonnes

— An emerging nickel producer

• Developing a large-scale nickel business

— Solid financial position • Cash of $0.8 billion @ Sept 30 2011

— An industry with strong fundamentals

• Forecast demand exceeds supply

3

Page 4: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

4

Strong Operating Base & Development Pipeline

Operations – Kansanshi, Zambia

– Guelb Moghrein, Mauritania

Projects — Ravensthorpe, Australia

— Kevitsa, Finland

— Sentinel, Zambia

— Enterprise, Zambia

Exploration — Haquira, Peru

Other Investment — Mopani (16.9%), Zambia

Page 5: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Asset and Project Update

Page 6: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

6

Targeting annual production of

~400 kt by end of 2014

Enhanced throughput and recoveries to

increase copper production to ~45 kt

Guelb Moghrein

First production in 2006

2010 production of 37 kt copper / 82 koz of gold

Optimizing recent expansion

Kansanshi

First production in 2005

2010 production of 231 kt copper / 110 koz gold

Multi-phase expansion plans in progress:

Mine pit development to optimize long term grades

Oxide circuit - Phase 1 to 7.2 Mtpa by Q1 2012

Phase 2 to 12 Mtpa by end 2012

Potential addition of sulphide circuit – incremental 16 Mtpa

On-going program of resource development and exploration

Existing Assets – Focus on Development / Expansion

Page 7: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

7

Projects

Successful commissioning achieved On schedule for continuous operation in 2012

Kevitsa

Over 90% complete

Continuous operation planned for mid 2012

Target operations:

10 ktpa nickel @ ~$6.70 / lb

20 ktpa copper @ ~$1.10 / lb

Seeking to increase the annual throughput capacity by 50% to 7.5 Mtpa

On-going drill program continues to deliver

encouraging results

Ravensthorpe

Continuous operation in 2012

First production October 4 2011

Re-constructed plants consistently achieving design throughputs

Atmospheric Leach and Pressure Acid Leach plants successfully brought on line

Target operations:

39 ktpa for the first five years; 28 ktpa over the life of mine; C1 cost of ~$7.00 per lb (1)

(1)At current sulphur prices

Page 8: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

8

Projects

World-class deposit with huge potential

Sentinel – Copper

EIA and land use agreement obtained

Resource drilling complete; finalization of resource estimate underway

Expected to produce 240 ktpa copper concentrate initially, rising up to 300 ktpa

Construction works planned to start in 2012

Targeting commercial production in 2014

Zambian Copper Smelter

Limited smelter capacity in Zambia currently

Enhanced benefits to First Quantum include:

Production of sulphuric acid for use in Kansanshi’s oxide circuit

Allows more mined ore to be treated as oxide with higher recoveries

Leverages existing infrastructure

Available workforce in nearby community

Reduce dependence on limited 3rd party capacity

Improved treatment costs

Page 9: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

9

Projects

Enterprise – Nickel

Focused drill program with eight rigs currently on site

140 holes for 49,750 metres completed to an average depth of ~350m, over an area of ~2.2 kms x 1 km

NI-43-101 compliant resource anticipated in 2012

Targeting concentrator facility of 40 – 70 ktpa of Ni capacity

Development cost could benefit from

proximity to Sentinel

Large-scale copper product in well-established mining region

Haquira

Acquired in December 2010

Large scale copper project located in southern Peru

M&I resource of 3.7 Mt of copper equivalent and an inferred resource of 2.4 Mt of copper equivalent

Currently focused on:

Community relations and land access

Expanding infill and condemnation drill program and environmental matters

Page 10: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

What We Have Delivered So Far

10

Total Annualised Shareholder Return (2)

January 2000 – December 2011 (%)

Copper Growth (1)

2000-2011 CAGR (%)

(1) Source: Brook Hunt. Inclusive of corporate acquisitions. (2) Source: CapIQ.

(4)%

(1)%

0%

1%

1%

3%

4%

7%

10%

12%

18%

20%

22%

23%

34%

Rio Tinto

Kazakhmys

KGHM

Codelco

Norilsk

BHPB

Anglo American

Antofagasta

Glencore

Freeport

Teck

Xstrata

First Quantum

Southern Copper

Barrick

0%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

6%

6%

7%

12%

15%

21%

22%

24%

32%

ENRC

Kazakhmys

Anglo American

Vedanta

Xstrata

Rio Tinto

Lundin

Hudbay

Freeport

Eramet

Teck

BHP Billiton

Vale

Norilsk

Antofagasta

Southern Peru

Inmet

First Quantum

Page 11: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

What We Are Looking to Deliver: Copper Growth Remains Best in Class

11

2016 Copper Producer Landscape

(Mt)

Copper Growth

2011 – 2016 CAGR (%)

1.0

0.3

29.2%

Teck

Antofagasta

Freeport

Anglo

Codelco

Norilsk

BHPB

KGHM

Vedanta

Barrick

Kazakhmys

Rio Tinto

Glencore

Xstrata

S Copper

Vale

FQM

Source: Brook Hunt. First Quantum estimates based on management projections.

6th Largest Global Copper Producer

by 2016

13th Largest Global Copper Producer

Currently

Page 12: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Long-Term Targets

12

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Kansanshi Guelb Moghrein Kevitsa Sentinel Haquira Ravensthorpe Enterprise

Copper Production

ktpa

Nickel Production

ktpa

0

25

50

75

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 13: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Long-term Copper

Dynamics

15

Page 14: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Surpluses Overestimated & Deficits Underestimated

14

Brook Hunt Supply / Demand – Forecast vs. Actual

(77)

0

(422)

236

1,137

424

648737

(293)

(1,080)

(334)

(134)

78

295

960

(135)

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3-Year Prior Estimate Actual Copper Demand

Supply / Demand Surplus (Deficit) (ktpa)Copper Demand (ktpa)

Source: Brook Hunt and USGS

Page 15: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Grades of Global Copper Mined % Cu

Copper Grades Have Declined Significantly

15 Source: Brook Hunt. Broker Research

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Initial production of Grasberg and Escondida

Lack of sizeable, high quality production coming on-stream…

Page 16: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Emerging Markets – Substantial Growth Ahead

16

Source: Maddison

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1835 1855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995

USA

UK

China

Brazil

Russia

GDP per Capita US$

Page 17: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Projected Impact on the Copper Market

17

Illustrative Scenarios Assuming Increased Intensity of Cu Consumption for China, India and Brazil

Key Points

Should China, India and Brazil all grow in line with population forecasts and reach copper use per capita equivalent to, say, the EU-27 country group by 2020, the increased annual copper demand would be approximately 10 Mtpa, equivalent to:

– ca. 60% of current annual global copper demand

– Nine new Escondidas being brought on line

If China, India and Brazil reach the copper

intensity of EU27 countries by 2020, this equates

to...

(1) Defined as copper consumed by semis fabricators or “first users” of refined copper (ingot makers, master alloy plants, wire rod plants, brass mills, alloy wire mills, foundries and foil mills)

(2) Based on Escondida 2010 production of 1.09 Mt (3) Based on FM 2010 production of 323 kt

If China, India and Brazil reach the copper

intensity of Japan by 2020, this equates to...

If China, India and Brazil reach the copper

intensity of Germany by 2020, this equates to...

No. of New

Escondidas (2) New Annual

Cu demand

No. of New

First

Quantum’s (3)

0.551.80

5.506.30 7.00

13.7

18.50

21.50

0

5

10

15

20

25

India Brazil China EU 27 Japan Germany Korea Taiwan

Intensity of Refined Copper Consumption (1) kg Cu per capita

Aggregate Copper Use per Capita: 3.0 kg per capita

Multiple of India, Brazil, China Average Intensity of Use (x)

2.1x 2.3x

6.1x

7.1x

Source: International Copper Study Group

4.5x

Page 18: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Copper Price Estimates Over Time

18

Copper Price (US$ / lb Cu)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Broker Research

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003 2002

2001

Actual

2000

Long Term Price Estimate

2011 Long Term

2010 LT 2009 LT

2008 LT 2007 LT

2006 LT

2005z LT 2004 LT

2003 LT 2002 LT 2001 LT 2000 LT

Page 19: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Projects Less Sensitive to Copper Prices

19

Top 25 Copper Projects

$ 6,130

$ 8,061

$ 9,079

$ 10,696

$ 10,794

$ 11,550

$ 13,611

$ 14,290

$ 14,667

$ 14,672

$ 15,000

$ 15,435

$ 15,470

$ 15,474

$ 15,514

$ 15,759

$ 16,602

$ 17,325

$ 18,400

$ 18,472

$ 18,551

$ 19,895

$ 20,045

$ 20,421

$ 21,622

Konkola Deep (Vedanta)

Buenavista DC (South. Cop)

Sentinel (FQM)

Galeno (Minmetals)

Antapaccay (Xstrata)

Antamina (BHP)

Rio Blanco (Zijin)

Haquira (FQM)

Quellaveco (Anglo Amer.)

Canariaco (Candente)

Quebrada Blanca (Teck)

Ministro Mina Hales (Codelco)

Cerro Verde (Freeport)

Los Bronces (Anglo Amer.)

Salobo (Vale)

Las Bambas (Xstrata)

Oyu Tolgoi (Ivanhoe)

Toromocho (Chinalco)

Tampakan (Xstrata)

Telegrapho (Antofagasta)

El Moro (GoldCorp)

Sierra Gorda (Quadra FNX)

Caserones (JX Nippon)

Caracoles (Antofagasta)

Cobre Panama (Inmet)

Cumulative Production (paid kt Cu)

Minimum Required Copper Price to Generate 15% IRR (US$ / tonne Cu)

Capex Intensity (US$ / t)

Source: Brook Hunt, equity research estimates.

Page 20: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Agreement to Dispose of DRC Assets

• Agreement with ENRC to dispose of all residual claims and assets

• Total consideration of $1.25B – consisting of: – $750M payable on closing – $500M three-year promissory note with a 3% interest coupon

• Condition of closing – FQM, ENRC and DRC government will settle all disputes relating to the companies

beings sold, their assets and operations in the DRC, and – FQM. ENRC and DRC government will be releasing one another in respect of all

claims and judgments related to the foregoing or to any other matter arising in the DRC on or before the date of closing

• Transaction closing expected on or before February 29, 2012

20

Page 21: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

A Rapidly Growing Mining & Metals Company

• Unique core technical strength behind the strong track record of value creation

• Existing operations provide a solid platform to support growth

• Strong financial position and cash flow

• ~$5 billion investment in growth over 2012 – 2016 to significantly increase copper and nickel production

• Growth program expected to position First Quantum as the world’s 6th largest copper producer and a top ten nickel producer

21

Page 22: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

January 2012

TSX: FM LSE: FQM LuSE: FQMZ www.first-quantum.com

A Rapidly Growing

Metals & Mining

Company

1

Page 23: Investor presentation -_january_-_final

Corporate Profile

Average daily trading volume - shares

Market capitalization – $ millions

Recent share price – January 17, 2012

Dividend paid in regards to year 2010 – per share

52-week share price range

Geographic breakdown of institutional shareholders

Fully diluted

Shares issued and outstanding

Stock exchange listings & symbols – (S&P/TSX 60 Index)

2.1 million

C$11.4 billion

C$23.91

C$0.80

C$29.60 – C$12.60

US=36%; UK=26%; Canada=23%; other=15%

476.3 million

476.3 million

TSX: FM LSE: FQM LuSE: FQMZ

23