English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies.

The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities.

Investment Strategy

v

Shop for Nation coming soon, but where? U.S. stocks plunged yesterday due to political game leading to twists and turns of presidential election results, having negative sentiment on SET Index. Foreigners are still net sellers, while institutional buying is not as strong as before since there is no more LTF buying. Investors have to watch economic stimulus measures and budget, especially Shop for Nation that is more likely to be launched. These measures would have positive sentiment on commerce plays like CRC, property rental plays like CPN and SF, and property funds and REIT that has revenue from shopping mall leasing. Property stimulus measures are also likely (e.g. interest expense reduction for homebuyers), benefiting many property plays; we favor ORI and AP. We sell STGT to take profit (resulting in 28% gain) and sell DIF while switch to CPN and ORI by 10% each. Top picks are CPN, ORI, and TU.

Outperformers during Shop for Nation

Source: ASPS Research

SET Index 1,250.15 Change (pts) 7.16 Market Cap (Million B) 56,520

Net Trading Value by Investor Type (Million B) Foreign -3,469.49 Proprietary -583.22 Institutional 2,988.73 Retail 1,063.97

RESEARCH DIVISION

Asia Plus Securities

Therdsak Thaveeteeratham Fundamental Investment Analyst on Capital Market,

Technical Investment Analyst License No: 004132

Paradorn Tiaranapramote

Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 075365

Takit Chardcherdsak

Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 087636

Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn

Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 110506

Pawat Pattrapong

Quantitative Analyst Assistant

SET Index is supported by not many factors, while foreigners are still net sellers. We recommend selective buying for stocks benefiting from surrounding factors. Top picks are CPN, ORI, and TU. We sell STGT (to take profit) and DIF and switch to CPN and ORI by 10% each.

October 7, 2020

| 2

v

MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

Trump recovered, but stock markets not rebounding Global markets are keeping an eye on the U.S. presidential election on November 3, the battle between U.S. President Donald Trump and Joe Biden (former vice president during Obama's term) in the next 28 days, especially these issues:

Trump has recovered from COVID-19. After he announced his infection with COVID-19 on October 2, he has gradually recovered, left the hospital, and returned to the White House. Yesterday, he stated he is ready for the next debate on October 15 and he is putting the economic stimulus package phase 2 worth US$2.2tr on hold until after the November 3 presidential election. The delay weakened U.S. stock markets Dow Jones (-1.34%) and NASDAQ (-1.6%) and gold price (-2%) yesterday.

Bloomberg's latest poll suggests that Biden is still taking a lead over Trump and Democrat is likely to win a majority both in the Senate and the House. Currently, Republican has a majority in the Senate with 53 seats (versus Democrat's 45 Senate seats), whereas Democrat has a majority in the House of Representatives with 232 MP seats (versus Republican's 198 MP seats).

U.S. Presidential Election Poll

Source: Bloomberg

We believe Joe Biden is very likely to become U.S. new President and implement Democrat's policies as follows:

Democrat is supporting clean energy (e.g. electric cars) and coal usage reduction, which would keep coal price low and adversely affect coal plays (BANPU, LANNA)

Democrat is supporting trade. Trade protectionism measures against China would soften. Biden considers bringing the US back to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) consisting of 11 countries. Import tariff may be lowered. However, Biden will still proceed with trade war with China, seeing that China is aggressively developing 5G

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Donald Trump Joe Biden

%

38

62

| 3

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MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

network and Chinese tech may catch up with U.S. tech. Chinese tech industry – from downstream production (e.g. Huawei, ZTE, and CCTV plays DAHUA and HIKVISION) to upstream production (e.g. chipmaker SMIC) – is still projected to be pressured by the US in the long run.

Democrat will raise taxes. Corporate tax will be hiked from 21% to 28% (still lower than 35% before Trump's tax cut), while would hurt market earnings. Goldman Sachs expects Biden's interest rate hike to decrease 2021 EPS of S&P500 by US$20 or 12% from US$170 to US$150, probably triggering fund outflow from U.S. markets. Meanwhile, fund flow may switch to Asian markets (including Thailand), both direct investment (machinery and factory) and indirect investment (money market, e.g. stocks).

U.S. Presidential Election Poll

Source: Bloomberg

Statistically, during the past three U.S. presidential elections, SET Index and U.S. markets fell 7.5% and 4.1% on average in the one month before election but then rebounded in the one week before the election by 2.9% and 5.8% on average.

S&P500 Return During U.S. Presidential Elections

Source: Bloomberg / ASPS Research

Basic Policy Republican Democrat

o Slogan • Keep America Great • Rebuild America

o International

Trade

• Tariff and non-tariff protectionism policies against

worldwide trading partners to minimize trade deficit.

• Preferring bilateral to multilateral trade deals

• Seeing that China has unfair trade policies with

the US, similar to Republican.

• Interested in CPTPP agreement

o Minimum

Wage

• Disagreeing with minimum wage hike

(since mid-term election) that may increase

operating cost for SMEs.

• Hiking minimum hourly wage from US$7.25

to US$15.

o Corporate

Tax• Cutting corporate income tax from 21%.

• Hiking corporate tax from 21% to 28%

(lower than pre-Trump rate of 35%).

o Personal Tax• Cutting personal income tax for

medium-income people from 22% to 15%• Hiking corporate tax ceiling from 37% to 39.6%

o Environment• Not supporting greenhouse gas emission rules,

withdrawing from the Paris Agreement

• Supporting environment conservative investment

with US$2tr budget in four years.

o Health Care • Not supporting government health insurance • Supporting government health insurance

o Refugee• Not supporting Dreamer right for immigrant youths

to study and work in the US

• Supporting immigrant youths Dreamer rights

to study and work in the US.

o Infrastructure• US$50bn budget for infrastructure development

(e.g. road, bridge, railway) in rural areas.• Developing infrastructure (e.g. road, airport, bridge).

-4.1

%

1.3

%

2.9

%

-3.8

%

-4.6

%

-8.3

%

0%

33%

100%

33% 33%

0%

-1m

-2w

-1w

1w

2w

1m

Average Return Probability (Return>0)

Before Election After Election

| 4

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MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

SET Return During U.S. Presidential Elections

Source: Bloomberg / ASPS Research

Shop for Nation coming soon, but where? In the final quarter of 2020, the government is pushing forward economic stimulus measures focusing on household consumption for all consumers (low-medium-high income) as follows:

Some packages were launched in September, e.g. Half-Half co-payment and extra B500 welfare card allowance for low-income people with the total budget of B51bn (0.5% of GDP).

Yesterday, the cabinet approved One Tambon One University scheme worth B16.3bn, employing 60,000 people to work in government, private, and local segments with the help of a university in each tambon.

Speaking of measures expected in October-December, the Center for Economic Situation Administration (CESA) will implement a measure similar to Shop for Nation at the meeting today. Participating consumers can submit receipts from spending on goods and services under this measure for tax deduction (originally up to B15,000). Statistically, Shop for Nation boosted spending in the economic system by B17-22.5bn

SET Return During U.S. Presidential Elections

Source: Bloomberg / ASPS Research

-7.5

%

-1.5

%

5.8

%

-2.2

%

-3.9

%

-6.2

%

33% 33%

100%

0% 0%

50%

-1m

-2w

-1w

1w

2w

1m

Average Return Probability (Return>0)

Before Election After Election

Year Period Participating GoodsTax Deduction

(B)

Spending

(Million B)% of GDP

2015 25-31 Dec 2015 (7 days) Domestic goods & services 15,000 22,000 0.13%

2016 14-31 Dec 2016 (18 days) Domestic goods & services 15,000 17,000 0.10%

201711 Nov - 3 Dec 2017

(23 days)Domestic goods & services 15,000 22,500 0.13%

201815 Dec 2018 -15 Dec 2019

(1 month)Car tile, books & OTOP goods only 15,000 12,000 0.07%

| 5

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MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

During Shop for Nation, SET Index rose 0.81% on average and the following sectors tended to outperform the SET: tourism (+3.9%), commerce (+1.43%), transportation (+1.22%), and property (+1.14%). However, fundamentals of the tourism-hotel sector are still dull amid COVID-19, so we reiterate UNDERWEIGHT. Tourism plays (ERW, CENTEL, MINT) already rallied and they are now overvalued, so we reiterate Switch. We still recommend speculating on retail plays, especially those benefiting from Shop for Nation, e.g. CRC, CPN, SPVI, and CPALL.

Outperformers during Shop for Nation

Source: ASPS Research

For property stimulus measures, the Government Housing Bank (GHB) was proposing two support measures for people affected by COVID-19 to new finance minister Arkom Termpittayapaisith: 1) Halving housing loan rate – From the housing loan rate of 2.99%, GHB

requests the finance ministry to help pay 1.50% in compensation for homebuyers.

2) Two-gen loans – GHB is proposing for 70-year two-generation loans worth B10bn to help people have home sooner than before.

These measures have positive sentiment on property plays (AP, ORI).

Government stimulus plays: ORI, CPN, TU SET Index rose 7.16 pts or 0.58% yesterday, mainly driven by energy and petrochemical plays that boosted SET Index by 1.53 pts and 0.21 pts, respectively. Oil production facilities in Gulf of Mexico has been temporarily shut down due to hurricanes, pressuring oil supply.

Meanwhile, foreigners were still net sellers at B1.2bn (15th day, totaling over B22bn), while institutional funds were net buyers at B2.9bn (second day).

| 6

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MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

Oil prices are still rising inconsistently, while foreign buying is not returning yet. We recommend stocks that have solid fundamentals and benefit from government economic stimulus measures (focusing on medium- to high-income people) that already underwent correction. Top picks are ORI, CPN, and TU.

ORI(FV@B8.10) – 3Q20 presales B7.5bn, falling 32%yoy and 14%qoq. Thus, 9M20 presales were B19bn and made up 88% of ORI's target of B21.5bn (versus our projection of B20bn). 4Q20 presales are projected to enjoy positive momentum from 3Q20, driven by nine projects worth B14bn; 4Q20 presales are expected at B7bn, boosting 2020 presales beyond ORI's target and our forecast. Valuation is still favorable with upside almost 20% and dividend yield almost 7%p.a.

CPN(FV@B66.00) – CPN's businesses already passed the lowest point and recently start to improve, mainly from the shopping mall business that is recovering better than expected. Traffic almost rebounds back to normal. CPN is providing smaller rental rate discount, from 30-50% to 25% now. Tenants are leasing CPN's leasable spaces, so occupancy rate rebounds to 92%. If Shop for Nation takes effect for the rest of this year, CPN will be able to give smaller discount. It plans to open three new malls in Ayutthaya, Sriracha, and Chanthaburi in 2H21-2022. It will also sell leasehold rights in four malls to CPNREIT, probably within end-2020 or the latest in February 2021. Having 50% upside, we recommend gradually accumulating.

For TU, see Market Talk yesterday.

SET vs Sector Return 2019 SET vs Sector Return 2020ytd

Source: ASPS Research Source: ASPS Research

116.9%55.5%

2.5%-5.3%

-8.2%-11.6%-13.2%-14.1%-14.7%

-20.0%-20.1%-21.7%-23.1%-24.3%-24.9%-25.6%-26.7%

-31.0%-31.2%

-44.4%

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130%

ETRONAGRI

INSURFOOD

STEELSCOMM

AUTOCONMAT

FINCONS

ICTSET

HELTHTRANSMEDIA

TOURISMENERGPETRO

PROPBANK

| 7

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MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

Market Talk Top Picks

Source: ASPS Research

Start

Date Avg. Cost Last

DOHOME 21 Sep 20 10% 14.50% 13.10 15.00 15.00 44.46 1.01 14.80

DOHOME is expected to show strongest profit in 3Q20. Gross margin is projected

to grow. New store is opened with business model focusing on customer need,

boosting market share.

DCC 30 Sep 20 10% -7.03% 2.56 2.38 3.10 13.60 6.10 2.25DCC's 3Q20 profit is expected to grow further. Sales growth in July-August

already reached 3Q20 target.

TU 6 Oct 20 10% 1.39% 14.40 14.60 17.00 13.81 4.25 13.70TU's 3Q20 net profit is expected to grow 5.6%qoq and 31.9%yoy (far beyond forecast). Red Lobster restaurants in the US are reopening as

normal. Chilled-frozen food business is rebounding.

DIF 29 Sep 20 10% -3.62% 13.80 13.30 N.A. N.A. 7.85 13.10DIF is an infrastructure fund, a good safe haven amid SET fluctuation. Dividend

yield expected over 6%p.a

STGT 26 Aug 20 10% 28.00% 68.75 88.00 100.00 12.69 3.15 88.00

STGT's 3Q20 net profit is expected to jump 258.8%qoq and 2,965.8%yoy and

make a new high for the second quarter thanks to a continuous rise in rubber

glove selling price.

MCS 25 Sep 20 10% 0.00% 12.80 12.80 17.70 7.20 6.74 12.50MCS has high cash in hand and good liquidity. It may consider capital decrease.

2021 EPS is expected to rise from B1.86 to B1.95.

INSET 24 Sep 20 10% 1.81% 3.32 3.38 4.18 12.91 3.10 3.20INSET's 2020 profit is estimated to grow 23.8%. 2021 profit has wide upside

from new business opportunities in data center, 5G, and mass transit.

MTC 29 Sep 20 15% -1.30% 51.17 50.50 57.00 20.81 0.72 47.75MTC's 3Q20 profit is expected to make a new high, driven by continuous net loan

growth after lockdown easing.

NER 5 Oct 20 5% 3.03% 3.30 3.40 4.40 6.55 6.11 3.00NER benefits from China's rapid economic recovery thanks to good COVID-19

infection control. Plus, it has a new rubber processing facility.

WORK 30 Sep 20 10% 8.33% 10.80 11.70 12.00 37.87 2.11 10.80WORK jumped 60% in one month during debut of 10 Fight 10 Season 1. 10 Fight

10 Season 2 is coming soon, while WORK has limited downside now.

Stocks WeightAccumulated

Return

PriceFair Value

PER

2020F

Dividend

Yield

Cut Loss/

Stop ProfitStrategist Comment

Beta Portfolio

Yesterday we cut BEM from our portfolio and switch to TU

Today we sell STGT to take profit and cut investment in DIF from our portfolio and switch to CPN and ORI by 10% each

Accumulated returns since our recommendation Stock Classification

Accumulated returns Accumulated returns since beginning of the year

Stop Profit 28.0%

14.5%

8.3%

3.0%

1.4%

1.8%

0.0%

-1.3%

-3.6%

-7.0%

-15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0%

STGT

DOHOME

WORK

NER

TU

INSET

MCS

MTC

DIF

DCC

Dividend, 35%

Defensive, 10%

Positive Factor, 55%

MCS

DCCNERTU

STGTDOHOME

INSETMTC

WORK

DIF

Min,0.387350794

Beta Portfolio, 0.812709156

Max,1.643275356

SF, -0.04%AP, -0.10%

RJH, -0.19%

MTC, -0.21%BCH, -0.27%

TVO, -0.28%KBANK, -0.29%

RS, -0.39%EGCO, -0.53%TKN, -0.54%

TTW, -0.65%BEM, -0.72%

MAJOR, -0.81%TPIPL, -0.89%

IVL, -0.91%CPF, -0.95%

PSH, -0.95%AOT, -1.35%

MCS, -1.52%WHA, -1.95%

BTSGIF, -2.63%PTTEP, -2.96%

STEC, -3.09%CRC, -3.56%

JMART, -3.92%DIF, -4.87%

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1%

STGT, 4.43%NOBLE, 4.40%

BAM, 3.40%DCC, 2.84%

INSET, 2.56%RATCH, 2.44%

DOHOME, 1.91%SEAFCO, 1.67%

CENTEL, 1.53%STA, 1.40%BCP, 1.39%COM7, 1.38%

BDMS, 1.32%LH, 1.26%

GULF, 1.18%WORK, 0.89%EASTW, 0.85%

SVI, 0.84%ADVANC, 0.80%

TU, 0.67%CPALL, 0.65%ROBINS, 0.60%

SCCC, 0.56%THCOM, 0.51%BBL, 0.46%SCC, 0.44%EA, 0.43%

BGRIM, 0.31%POPF, 0.28%TFG, 0.27%AMATA, 0.25%BCPG, 0.24%PTT, 0.22%AAV, 0.20%INTUCH, 0.19%KSL, 0.18%NER, 0.17%CPN, 0.16%KKP, 0.15%SPVI, 0.14%SAT, 0.12%PYLON, 0.06%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

9.15%

1.61%0.02%

-20.84%

1.06% 0.58%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

YTD MTD -1D

ASPS Portfolio SET Index

Equity Calendar Research DivisionOctober 7, 2020

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday5 6 7 8 9

XD Par decrease New listing - MAI > Services New listing - MAI > Property & Construction

MODERN @B0.05 SLM B0.50 par (from B25, "SP") K&K Superstore Southern (KK) 230m shrs Sirakorn Pcl (SK) 460m shrs, B0.50 par

B0.50 par (IPO 69m shrs @B0.88) (IPO 115.348m @B0.80)

New shares trading Last trading day

W 2,817.392m shrs (xr) SANKO-W1 XE New shares trading

S5013P2012D 50m units SANKO-W1 1:1w @B1.00 ("SP", final) BROOK 1.598m shrs (w)

XD

CHAYO @B0.0027777 New shares trading Conversion

CHAYO 20 existing : 1STD @free JMART 14.825m shrs (w) SWC-W1 1:1w @B1.00

JMT 84.583m shrs (w)

MPR Press Conference

12 13 14 15 16

XD XD XD

MK @B0.11 TLHPF @B0.25 LHSC @B0.100

SSP @B0.11 QHPF @B0.1540

PUBLIC HOLIDAY XR

(H.M. King Bhumibol Adulyadej XR WHART @tba XN

The Great Memorial Day) BCPG 8:1n @B11.50 MIT @B0.375

Conversion

XW EMC-W6 1:1w @B0.15

BCPG 1:1BCPG-W1 @free

BCPG 1:1BCPG-W2 @free

19 20 21 22 23

XD Conversion

AEONTS @B1.85 LIT-W1 1:2w @B4.00 PUBLIC HOLIDAY

(Chulalongkorn Day)

26 27 28 29 30

Conversion

SANKO-W1 1:1w @B1.00 (final)

BOT : Sep-20 Trade

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday2 3 4 5 6

XD

MC 0.20

XR

NBC 5:2n @B0.53

XW

MOC : Oct-20 CPI JCK 2 existing: 1JCK-W6 @free MPC meeting

9 10 11 12 13

XW XR

JMT 9.76092:1JMT-W3 @free KC 1:1n @B0.10

16 17 18 19 20

23 24 25 26 27

XD

TNH @B0.45

NESDB - GDP 3Q18

30

BOT : Oct-20 Trade

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday1 2 3 4

MOC : Nov-20 CPI

7 8 9 10 11

PUBLIC HOLIDAY

(Substitution for H.M. King Bhumibol Adulyadej PUBLIC HOLIDAY ADDITIONAL SPECIAL HOLIDAY

The Great's Birthday/ National Day / Farther's Day) (Constitution Day)

October 2020

November 2020

December 2020