Investment Strategies for a Changing World · 2017. 2. 1. · Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10...
Transcript of Investment Strategies for a Changing World · 2017. 2. 1. · Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10...
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Investment Strategies for aChanging World
The Ben Graham Centre’s 2013 Value Investing ConferenceToronto, Ontario
Dr. A. Gary ShillingApril 10, 2013
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1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 20120%
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Nonfinancial CorporateHouseholdState and Local
Federal GovernmentFinancial
Sector Cumulative Debt and Equity Issuance to GDP
Last points: 4Q 2012
Source: The Federal Reserve
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Jan-59 Jan-67 Jan-75 Jan-83 Jan-91 Jan-99 Jan-070
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U.S. Personal Saving Rate(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Last Point Jan. 2013: 2.4%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-1600
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Federal Budget Balance$ Bil.
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Last Point 2012: -1089
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U.S. Fed. Funds Target RateECB Repo Rate
UK Bank RateBOJ Call Rate
Source: The Central Banks
Central Bank Rates
Last Points: 03/14/13
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Jan-07 Oct-07 Aug-08 May-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Jul-12600
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S&P 500 and Quantitative Easing
Source: Thomson Reuters, A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Last Point 03/14/13: 1563
QE1+42%
QE2+24%
Op. Twist+20%
Greece 1
Greece 2 / Fed. Debt CeilingEuro Crisis /Fiscal Cliff
QE3
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Jan-08 Dec-08 Dec-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Oct-120
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Required reserves of depository institutionsTotal reserves of depository institutions (excess + required)
Required and Total Reserves of Depository Institutions$ Bil, SA
Last Points 03/06/13: Required: 115.8, Total: 1764.0
Source: The Federal Reserve
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Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12282
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Average Real Weekly Earnings of Private Production and Nonsupervisory Employees ($1982-84)
Last Point February 2013: 294.29
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Aug-11 May-12 Feb-1375
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Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar
Source: Thomson Reuters
Last Point 03/14/13: 96.09
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Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-1375
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Yen per Dollar - left axisNIKKEI 225 Index - right axis
NIKKEI 225 and Yen Exchange Rate
Source: Thomson Reuters
Last Point 03/14/13 - Yen/$: 96.09, NIKKEI: 12,381
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Dec-02 Nov-04 Oct-06 Sep-08 Aug-10 Jul-12500
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Total factors supplying reserve funds ($bil.) - left axisS&P 500 Index Level - right axis
S&P 500 and Federal Reserve Assets
Source: Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance
Last Point 03/13/13 - S&P: 1555, Fed Assets: 3209
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Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-1390
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S&P 500 (US)FTSE 100 (UK)
STOXX 600 (eurozone)NIKKEI 225 (Japan)
Global Stock Exchanges I
Source: Bloomberg
Last Points 03/14/13 - US: 124 UK: 117 EZ: 122 JP: 146
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Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-1370
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Shanghai Composite (China)TSX Index (Canada)
ASE General Index (Greece)ASX 200 (Australia)
Global Stock Exchanges II
Source: Bloomberg
Last Points 03/14/13 - CN: 103 CA: 107 GR: 142 AU: 124
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Chart 14
Jan-07 Oct-07 Aug-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Aug-120%
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Junk Bond Spread vs 20 Yr TreasurysJunk Bond Yield
Source: Bianco Research, LLC, Bloomberg
Junk Bond Yields and Spread vs. Treasurys
Last Points 03/14/13 - Yield: 6.41, Spread: 3.54
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Jan-95 Mar-99 May-03 Jul-07 Sep-111
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AA Rated Corporate Bond YieldS&P 500 Dividend Yield
Yield on Corporate Stocks and Bonds
Source: Haver Analytics, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Last Point Feb. 2013 - Stocks: 2.21, Bonds: 2.07
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125%
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Chinese Gross Domestic Productyear / year percentage change
Last Point 4Q 2012: 7.9%
Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics
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Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12100
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Reuters/Jefferies Commodity Research Bureau Index
Source: Jefferies and Company
Last Point 03/14/13: 296.3
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Real U.S. Commodity PricesCRB Index Deflated by CPI
Source: Bianco Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Historical Statistics of the United States
Last Point February 2013: 128.2
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1947-I 1959-III 1972-I 1984-III 1997-I 2009-III 56%
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Compensation of Employees - left axisCorp. Profits with IVA and CCAdj - right axis
Corporate Profits and Employee Compensationas a percentage of National Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Points 3Q 2012 - Corp. Profits: 14.3%, Employee Comp: 61.6%
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Cyclically Adjusted Stock Price to Earnings RatioS&P 500 price /avg. earnings from previous 10 years
Source: Robert Shiller
Average:16.5
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Nominal S&P 500Real S&P 500 (deflated by CPI, 1982-84 prices)
Real and Nominal S&P 500
Source: Haver Analytics
Last Points February 2013 - Real: 650, Nominal: 1512
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1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 201110
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Real S&P 500log scale, February 2013 prices
Source: Robert Shiller
Last Point February 2013: 1512
Bull BullBull
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Bear Bear
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Chart 23
Period Military Engagement No. of Years Annualized Wholesale Price Change1749-1755 Peacetime 6 -0.50%1756-1763 French-Indian War 8 2.27%1764-1774 Peacetime 11 -0.35%1775-1783 American Revolution 9 12.31%1784-1811 Peacetime 28 -1.91%1812-1815 War of 1812 4 7.78%1816-1845 Peacetime 30 -2.36%1846-1848 Mexican-American War 3 -0.40%1849-1860 Peacetime 12 1.05%1861-1865 Civil War 5 14.75%1866-1916 Peacetime 51 -0.74%1917-1918 World War I 2 23.92%1919-1940 Peacetime 22 -2.31%1941-1945 World War II 5 6.12%1946-1992 Cold War 47 4.20%1993-2000 Peacetime 8 1.43%2001-2012 War on Terror 12 2.90%
No. of Years Avg. Price ChangeWartime: 95 5.72%
Peacetime: 168 -1.16%Years Total: 263 1.25%
Historic Inflation and Deflation
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Chart 24Long Run Investments to Buy
1. Treasurys and other high-quality bonds.
2. Income-producing securities.
3. Food and other consumer staples.
4. Small luxuries.
5. The U.S. dollar
6. Rental apartments
7. Health care.
8. Productivity enhancers.
9. North American energy.
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Oct-81 Oct-86 Oct-91 Oct-96 Oct-01 Oct-06 Oct-110
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25 Year Zero Coupon Bond (Oct-81=100) 23,118 or 18.9% Annual ReturnS&P 500 Total Return (July-82=100) 3,109 or 11.9% Annual Return
Comparative Stock and Bond Performances
Last Points February 2013 - Stocks: 3,109; Bonds: 23,118
Source: Bianco Research & Haver Analytics
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1947Q1 1957Q1 1967Q1 1977Q1 1987Q1 1997Q1 2007Q120%
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Dividend Payout Ratio - left axisDividend Yield - right axis
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Payout Ratio1947 to present
Source: Standard and Poor's
Last Points 4Q 2012 - Payout Ratio: 35.6%, Dividend Yield: 2.19%
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Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Aug-11 May-12 Feb-131.15
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U.S. Dollars per Euro
Source: Thomson Reuters
Last Point 03/14/13: 1.300
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U.S. Homeowner and Rentersmillions of households
Source: Census Bureau
Last Point 4Q 2012 - Owners: 75.2, Renters: 39.8
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2007-I 2008-I 2009-I 2010-I 2011-I 2012-I4.5%
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Vacancy Rate - left axisAvg. Asking Rent ($ / month) - right axis
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / REIS
Apartment Vacancy and Rental Rates
Last Points 4Q 2012 - Vacancy: 4.5%, Rents: $1,097
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20104%
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National Health Care Expendituresas a percentage of GDP
Last Point 2011: 17.9%
Source: Department of Health and Human Services
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1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 20700%
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Social SecurityMedicareMedicaid + CHIP + Exchange Subsidies
Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaidas a percent of GDP
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Social Security Administration
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Without Healthcare BillWith Healthcare Bill
Insured Nonelderly Populationwith and without health care bill
Source: Congressional Budget Office
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1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 20090%
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Total Net ImportsNet Imports excluding Canada and Mexico
Net Petroleum Imports as a % of Supply
Source: EIA
Last Point 2011 - Total: 44.8, Ex. Canada & Mexico: 28.6
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Chart 34Long Run Investments to Sell or Avoid
1. Big-ticket consumer purchases.
2. Credit card and other consumer lenders.
3. Conventional home builders and suppliers
4. Selected banks and similar financial institutions
5. Junk securities
6. Commodities
7. Developing country stocks and bonds.