INVESTMENT CLUB NATIONAL CONFERENCE 2007 Shooting Stocks With Shotguns Paul Dolman-Darrall.

INVESTMENT CLUB NATIONAL CONFERENCE 2007

Shooting Stocks With Shotguns

Paul Dolman-Darrall


How do you pick shares?


How do you pick shares?

• Newspapers• Specialist Magazines (IC and Shares)• Friends• Rising/Falling Shares• Lucky Dip(!)• Popular Stocks• Maybe a discipline (Fundamental/Tech Analysis,

but how did you select which stock?)


Examine some sample stocks

• Why did you purchase?

• What do you know about the sector?


Examine some sample stocks

• Is the reason always sound?

• Do you know about the company?


Examples of Complexity

• ABS and CDO positions held on the trading book were acquired for market-making, ABS and CDO structuring purposes. These positions, which include ABS bonds, CDOs and sub prime residuals, are valued by reference to observable transactions including the level of the ABX indices and on a pool-by-pool basis, implied cumulative loss projections. RMBS backed CDOs have been valued consistently to the ABS CDO super senior exposure as noted above.



• In addition, during the appraisal phase, the well encountered gas condensate in the currently producing horizons extending the field to the south. Test flows were at the maximum capacity of the on-board equipment of 35 million standard cubic feet a day (1 million standard cubic meters a day). Results confirm sufficient gas at Shah Deniz for a second stage of development. Although further work is required to define this second phase it will likely be similar or larger than stage 1 -- 8.6 bcma (billion cubic metres a year).



• The FDA has requested that we further address the Agency's concern, prior to approval, about the potential implications from one preclinical in vitro chromosomal aberration study (one of four standard genotoxicity assays) in which genotoxicity was seen for the combination of naproxen sodium and sumatriptan, but not with either component alone. None of the other three standard genotoxicity studies (Ames test, mouse lymphoma TK assay, in vivo mouse micronucleus assay) demonstrated any genotoxicity for the combination of naproxen sodium and sumatriptan.


How do I pick shares?

• Stock Screening (Sometimes called Mechanical Investing)

• Local Knowledge


Stock Screening

• Pick the most popular ratio?


Stock Screening

• Pick another?

• Lets hope this works!


My Experiences

• Zweig

• Magic Formula

• Custom Produced Screens

• Can Fit Any Strategy

• Allows you to invest in what you don’t know and also not worry about it.


Further Resources

• Marketstarshttp://www.digitallook.com• CD Refs (http://www.companyrefs.com)• AAII (http://www.aaii.com)• IC Stock Screening Newsletter(http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk)


But Picking Mechanically Is Boring

• Local Knowledge Theory

• Invest In What You Know is the solution to the boredom factor.


Local Knowledge Theory

• Pick what you know

• Make it simple

• Use stock screening for candidates (this combined good selection, and uses local knowledge to maybe make a larger investment)

• Pick small companies (easier business models)


Q&A

INVESTMENT CLUB NATIONAL CONFERENCE 2007 Shooting Stocks With Shotguns Paul Dolman-Darrall.

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Transcript of INVESTMENT CLUB NATIONAL CONFERENCE 2007 Shooting Stocks With Shotguns Paul Dolman-Darrall.