INTRODUCTION TO TERRORISM

FAHEEM UL HASAN

Outline Definitions• Conceiving and Evaluating the Threat• Waves Theory• Terror Typologies• Old Vs. New Terrorism• Terrorist Organizations• Terrorist Attack Cycles• Response trends and Issues

Terms & Definitions

Terrorism – A Functional Definition The use or threatened use of violence against non-combatants, for the purposes though not exclusive purposes, of changing the policy or policies of a given society. International vs. Domestic Terrorism

Radicalisation & Extremism

Radical Latin radix for the rood Extremism is a label, usually pejorative meaning outside the mainstream.

Conceiving the Threat

Ideas – Internet STRATEGIC Groups – Al Qaeda, Jemaah Islamia, ASG,

OPERATIONAL Individuals and small groups – homegrown

jihadists TACTICAL

Evaluating the Threat

Ideas – Internet STRATEGIC Groups – Al Qaeda, Jemaah ,Islamia, ASG, OPERATIONAL Individuals and small groups – homegrown

jihadists TACTICAL

The Waves Theory Anarchists -1880’s -1914 Ethno-Nationalists/ Independence -

1919-1998 Ideological -1920s-1991 Religio Political -1979-current

Traditional “Old” Terrorism

Secular motivations Hierarchical structure Symbolic violence

ETHNO-NATIONALIST GROUPS Nationalist: LTTE (Sri Lanka) PKK (Turkey) ETA (Spain) FRETILIN ( East Timor) ETA (Spain) PLO (Palestine) FLN (Algeria) Lehi, Irgun (Israel) MNLF (Philippines)

ETHNO-NATIONALIST GROUPS

Irredentist: IRA (Northern Ireland) PIRA (Northern Ireland) JKLF (Kashmir) KLA (Kosovo) EOKA (Cyprus)

Leftist / Revolutionary FARC (Colombia) Shining Path (Peru) Tupac Amaru (Peru) PFLP (Palestine) RAF (Germany) Maoists (Nepal) Japanese Red Army (Japan) Red Brigades (Italy) November 17 (Greece) Weather Underground (USA)

Rightist / Reactionary Ku Klux Klan (USA) Aryan Nations (USA) Arizona Vipers (USA) Skinheads (Europe) AUC (Colombia) Omega 7 (USA/Cuba) Independent Committee for the Liberation of the Kidnappers (Colombia)

The New Type Of Terror Religious Motivation Networked structure Binary world view: Us and Them, Tag

hoot Violence a “moral imperative” Cyberspace, Critical Infrastructure and

the Danger of CBRN Terror.

Religio-Political Groups Al-Qaeda Jemaah Islamiyah GIA (Algeria) GSPC (Algeria) Hamas (Palestine) Islamic Jihad (Palestine) Babbar Khalsa (India) Hezbollah (Lebanon) Kahane Chai (Israel)

Single issue groups

Animal rights (ALF) Environmentalist (Earth First!) Anti-abortion (Army of God) Other

TERRORIST ORGANIZATION OPERATIONAL NETWORK LEADERS EXPERTS CELLS SUPPORT NETWORK SUPPORTERS SYMPATHIZERS PUBLIC

JMB-A Case Study

Founded in 1998 Foundational Roots in the Ahle Hadith Movement Bangladesh (AHAB) Mutation into Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) in 2002-2004 Major Attacks in the period 2001-2005. The Dirty Flot – A Foray into the Domain of CBRN Terror?

The Serial Bomb Blasts Key Points

Specific target sets Leaflets at every attack site Not intended in mass killing Size and Scale of the Attack Achieving Surprise

Strategic Communication Strong emphasis on strategic communication• Multi Platform strategy for communication• Making strong arguments using religion• Fighting the ‘Tag hoot’• Increased reliance on audio visual means

Operational Structures Organizational Linked Cells

Semi-Linked Cells Independent Cells Lone Wolf

Terrorist Attack Cycle

Concept Planning and Development Rehearsal Attack Escape & Evasion Exploitation

The Evolving Threat

STRATEGIC

OPERATIONAL

TACTICAL

Strategic Trends

Terrorist• Al Qaeda in a Strategic Cul de Sac• Shift in Motivations • Shift in Focus

Non-Terrorist• Fear and Uncertainty Rule• What model is next?• Is the Interwar Period ending?

Operational Trends

Think Globally Act Locally• Return of the Organization• Networks less Important• Aviation Remains a Critical

Target

Tactical Trends

Home-Grown Cells• Increase Attacks on Transportation• Devolution of Attacks• Knowledge Transfer

Global / Regional UN no political impact limited practical impact Lack of Comprehensive Regional Approach towards CT in South Asia Transnational Cooperation Still at a Minimal Level In the Absence of Effective Bilateral or

Multilateral Cooperation, the Terrorist Organizations Thrive

Response Trends

•Strong and EffectiveKinetic Response• Lagging but IncreasingIdeological Response• Anti-Jihadi Backlash

Conclusions Religio-Political Terrorism is a long-term threat Need to Address the Deeper Issues of

Radicalisation and Extremism Addressing the Governance Deficit Identity and Integration will be Significant Think Globally act Locally Primary Response is Political and Primarily non-

Kinetic

Thank You