International Republican Institute Public Opinion Survey of Ugandans December 4-23, 2014.

International Republican Institute

Public Opinion Survey of Ugandans

December 4-23, 2014

2

Detailed Methodology• The International Republican Institute (IRI) carried out a survey of Ugandan citizens aged 18 years

and older.

• The questionnaire was designed by Professor Robert Mattes of the University of Cape Town, in consultation with IRI, Uganda’s political parties and civil society stakeholders. Sample design, interview training and fieldwork was carried out by Hatchile Consult, a social research firm, in consultation with IRI and Professor Mattes.

• Face-to-face interviews were carried out with 2,402 respondents between December 4–23, 2014.

• The margin of error for the entire study is plus or minus two percentage points.

• In Stage 1, IRI stratified all Enumerator Areas (EU) from the most recent Uganda census by sub-region and rural-urban status. IRI then randomly selected 300 EUs with the probability proportionate to the population size of each stratum.

• In Stage 2, interviewers followed random walk patterns within the selected EU to identify eight households. Within each household (Stage 3), all members of the household aged 18 years and older were listed and one was randomly selected to participate in the survey. Interviews at each household alternated between men and women. One respondent from each household was selected by creating a numbered list of adults in that household and a number was randomly drawn.

• All interviewers were conducted in the language of the respondent’s choice.

• In total 3,039 houses were visited to obtain 2,402 interviews. Thus, the response rate for this survey was 79 percent.

• The survey was funded by the United States Agency for International Development.

• Charts and graphs may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

http://www.uct.ac.za/

http://www.hatchileconsult.com/HachileConsult/Default.aspx

http://www.usaid.gov/uganda


Country Headed in Right Direction

Since the last national election in 2011, would you say that each of the following have gotten better, stayed the same or become

worse?

4

Ugand

a Ove

rall

Own Living

Con

ditio

ns

Polit

ical S

ituat

ion

Nationa

l Eco

nom

y0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

6% 5% 6% 4%

46% 43% 40% 37%

21% 21% 22%19%

21% 25% 22% 31%

5% 7% 5% 8%2% 1%

6% 2%

Much Better Better SameWorse Much Worse Don’t Know

Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse in 12 months time?

5

Own Living

Con

ditio

ns

Ugand

a Ove

rall

Nationa

l Eco

nom

y

Polit

ical S

ituat

ion

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

7% 6% 5% 6%

42% 38% 38% 33%

21%19% 19% 18%

14% 18% 19% 20%

6% 6% 7% 8%

10% 14% 12% 15%


What about the overall direction of the country? Do you feel Uganda is going in the right direction or going in the wrong

direction?

6

Wrong Direction

Don't know

Right Direction

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0.29

3%

0.69

Right Direction Don’t Know Wrong Direction

In your opinion, who do you think is responsible for the overall direction in which the country is going?

7

Big Business

Churches

Int'l Donors / Int'l Financial Institutions

Military

National Resistance Movement

People of Uganda

Government

President Museveni

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

4%

5%

6%

7%

20%

45%

67%

80%

How well or badly would you say the national government has been handling:

8

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

7% 8% 4% 4%

44% 37% 28% 26%

26% 27%33% 30%

17% 23% 32% 35%5% 5% 3% 5%

Very Well Well Badly Very Badly Don’t Know


9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

13% 17% 12% 11% 11%

48% 42% 45% 47% 33%

22% 20% 21% 24%22%

15% 21% 22% 15%31%

1% 1% 1% 2% 3%



10

Reducing Crime Fighting Corruption in Gov't0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19%

5%

43%

20%

21%

20%

16%

49%

2% 5%


With regard to government hospitals and health clinics, please tell me whether you think the following matters have gotten

better, stayed the same or become worse since the 2011 elections?

11

Quality of Facilities

Quality of Medical Staff

Distance to Nearest

Health Center

Availability of Medicines

Cost of Health Care

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

4% 5% 6% 4% 4%

41% 38% 32% 31% 27%

25% 24% 37%

18% 21%

21% 21% 14%

29% 30%

8% 8% 11%16% 17%

2% 4% 1% 2% 2%


The National Resistance Movement made a series of campaign promises before the 2011 elections. Do you think that it was able to deliver on all, most, a few or none of these promises?

12

Don't Know

None

Few

Most

All

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

6%

15%

58%

18%

2%

Which of the following statements comes closest to how you feel about the National Resistance Movement’s 2011 campaign

promises?

13

Don't Know

Never was Committed, No Intention to Deliver

Committed to Promises, but Failed to Deliver

Committed to Promises, Delivered on Them

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

7%

24%

57%

12%

Now let’s speak about the performance of various parts of the government of Uganda. Do you approve or disapprove of the

way the following people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say?

14

President Mu-seveni

Elected MP Elected Councilor Mayor0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

30%

11% 8% 8%

47%

38% 44%33%

12%

26% 26%

20%

6%

17% 14%

8%

4% 7% 8%

30%

Strongly Approve Approve DisapproveStrongly Disapprove Don’t Know / Haven't Heard

In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing the country that government should address? (Open-Ended)

15

War

Civil War

Gender Issues / Women’s Rights

HIV/AIDS

Services (Other)

Land

Loans / Credit

Democracy / Political Rights

Food Shortage / Famine

Transportation

Electricity

Farming / Agriculture

Corruption

Education

Water Supply

Unemployment

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%0.3%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%2%2%3%3%3%3%3%4%

5%6%

8%8%8%

11%11%

13%21%

24%24%

25%26%26%

29%

In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing the country that government should address? (Open-Ended)

16

CRIME

Land


CORRUPTION

Education

Orphans / Street Children / Homeless Children

Poverty / Destitution

Transportation

TRANSPORTATION

Services (Other)

Water Supply

Sickness / Disease

Availability of Health Care

Overall Wages, Incomes and Salaries

Unemployment

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

8%

3%3%

11%

21%

24%

2%5%

25%

8%26%

2%8%

26%

1%4%

13%24%

3%6%

11%29%

Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, how well or badly would you say government has handled that issue

since the 2011 elections?

17

Don't Know

Very Badly

Fairly Badly

Fairly Well

Very Well

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

2%

29%

34%

32%

2%

Thinking of the most important problem just identified, how well or badly would you say government has handled that issue since

the 2011 elections?

18

Rates / Taxes

Unemployment

Corruption

Management of Economy

Poverty / Destitution

Infrastructure / Roads

Education

Water Supply

Availability of Health Care

Health


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

21%

27%

28%

34%

34%

34%

35%

38%

39%

42%

46%

78%

73%

72%

64%

64%

65%

65%

62%

62%

58%

51%

1%

0.3%

0.5%

2%

1%

0.4%

0.5%

1%

2%

Well / Very Well Badly / Very Badly Don’t Know

Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, could any other political party have done a better job than the National

Resistance Movement in handling this issue?

19

Don’t know

No

Yes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

21%

60%

17%

Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, could any other political party have done a better job than the National

Resistance Movement in handling this issue? IF YES: Which political party is that?

20

Other

Conservative Party

Democratic Party

Uganda People's Congress

Forum for Democratic

Change

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1%

0.1%

2%

3%

12%


Committed to Multi-Party Elections but Skeptical of Process

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

22

Who people vote for can make a big difference to what happens in this country.

No matter who people vote for, it won't make any difference to what happens in this country.

It makes a big diference who is in power. The right people can change things for the better.

It doesn't make any difference who is in power, things just go on the same way.

We should choose our leaders in Uganda through regular, open and honest elections.

Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing the country's leaders.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0.74

0.79

0.82

22%

17%

15%

Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2

Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country.

23

Many political parties are needed to make sure that Ugandans have a real choice in who governs them.

Political parties create division and confusion. It is therefore necessary to have many political parties in Uganda.

The country's opposition parties represent real causes and interests.

The country's opposition parties are personal platforms for disgruntled politicians who have left the NRM.

Oppositon parties should regularly examine and criticize government policies and actions.

Opposition parties should concentrate on cooperating with government and helping it develop the country.

I vote for a candidate who belongs to the political party that advances ideas I support.

I vote on the basis of the individual merits of a man or woman. The party they belong to is of secondary interest.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

63%

53%

38%

33%

35%

35%

56%

65%


On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national elections, held in 2011?

24

Don't Know

Not Free or Fair

Free and Fair, but with Major Problems

Free and Fair, with Minor Problems

Completely Free and Fair

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%10

0%

12%

10%

11%

25%

41%

During the 2011 election, did you / were you:

25

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

61%

12%4% 4% 2%

39%

88%96% 96% 98%

Yes No / Don’t Know

Do you expect the upcoming 2016 elections to be:

26

Don't Know

Not Free or Fair?

Free and Fair, but with Major Problems?

Free and Fair, with Minor Problems?

Completely Free and Fair?

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%10

0%

26%

9%

13%

16%

34%

How free will you be to choose who to vote for without feeling pressured?

27

Don't Know

Completely Free

Somewhat Free

Not Very Free

Not at All Free

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7%

62%

21%

5%

4%

Thinking about politics today in Uganda, how often do people have to be careful of what they say about politics?

28

Don't Know

Never

Rarely

Often

Always

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

6%

20%

18%

18%

36%

How much do you personally fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence?

29

Don't Know

Not at all

A Little Bit

Somewhat

A Lot

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

5%

32%

14%

17%

32%

How likely do you think it is that:

30

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

22% 26% 32%

61% 56%46%

17% 18% 22%

Very/Somewhat Not Very/Not At All Don’t Know

Do you think each of the following groups of people support the same political party as you, support another political party, or is their support divided among several different parties, or don’t

you know enough about their views to say?

31

Neighbors Co-Workers0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

22% 17%

30%29%

37% 43%

11% 9%

Same Party Divided Don’t Know Different Party

To what extent do you think people in your area will suffer negative consequences if they vote for the party of their choice?

32

Don't Know

Not at All

A Little

Somewhat

A Great Deal

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

24%

34%

17%

15%

11%

Would the presence of armed security personnel (army or police) at polling places make you feel more secure, make no difference

or make you feel less secure?

33

Don't Know

Much Less Secure

Less Secure

Make No Difference

More Secure

Much More Secure

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2%

10%

10%

9%

24%

44%

Would the presence of observers from other countries make things better, make no difference or make things worse?

34

Don't Know

Much Worse

Worse

Make No Difference

Better

Much Better

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

9%

3%

4%

22%

33%

30%


Support Term Limits and Election Commission Overhaul

Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country. Which of the following

statements is closest to your view?

36

There should be no constitutional limits on how long the president can service.

The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum two terms in office.

There should be no constitutional limits on the age of the president.

No one should be allowed to stand for president if they are older than 75 years of age.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%

30%

30%

65%

66%


How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say?

37

Religious Leaders

Army President Museveni

Commu-nity

Leaders

Police Parliament Electoral Com-

mission

Courts of Law

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

70%56% 51% 49%

23% 20% 20% 15%

20%

18% 23% 28%

26% 28%21%

24%

7%

11% 15% 14%

23% 25%

21% 24%

3%

5%8% 7%

25% 19%

25% 23%

1%9%

3% 2% 4% 8% 12% 14%

A Lot Somewhat Just A LittleNot At All Don’t Know / Haven't Heard

Which of these statements is closest to your opinion? The composition of the Electoral Commission:

38

Don't Know

Is Fine as It Currently Is

Needs to Be Changed so It Has a Broader Representation of All the Country's Political Parties

Needs to Be Changed so That It Is Independent of All Political Parties

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%

7%

23%

25%

45%

Which of the following statements about our political system is closest to your view?

39

As head of state, the president should continue to appoint members to the Election Commission as provided for in the Constitution.

Don't Know / Agree With Neither

Since the president is also a political contestant, he should not appoint members to the Electoral Commission who is the referee of the electoral process and the Constitution should be changed accordingly.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%

23%

7%

64%

Agree / Strongly Agree


Likely Voter Participation2016 Elections

In the next elections, in 2016, will people be able to register using the same documents as before, or do they need to get the new National ID card in order to register, or haven’t you had a

chance to hear about this yet?

41

Don't Know / Haven't Had a Chance to Hear

Can Register with Old Documentation

Need New National ID Card

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%10

0%

19%

16%

65%

I know it’s a long way off, but what are the chances of your voting in the national elections for president and parliament in 2016? How likely, if at all are you to vote in the next elections?

42

Don’t Know

Refused to Answer

Very Unlikely

Somewhat Unlikely

Somewhat Likely

Very Likely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

4%

1%

4%

4%

20%

60%


Free and Fair Elections Campaign

Have you heard of the Free and Fair Elections campaign, or haven’t you had a chance to find out about this yet?

44

Don't Know / Haven't Had Chance

No

Yes

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

11%

36%

54%

Do you think that the Free and Fair Elections Campaign represents the interests of government, of opposition parties, or

of ordinary citizens, or haven’t you heard enough about it to say?

45

Don't Know / Haven't Had Chance

Government

Oppositon Parties

Ordinary Citizens

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

26%

24%

9%

42%


Electoral Reform



47

Since some groups are so important, like the Army, women, youth and people with disabilities, we should set aside a certain number of seats for representatives of those groups.

There should be no parliamentary seats reserved for specific sectors or special interest groups.

The vice president should be appointed by the president and serve as long as the president has confidence in him/her.

The vice president should be directly elected by the voters and serve for the same term of office as the president.

Mayors should be appointed by the national government.

Municipal mayors should be directly elected by the voters in that town/village/city.

75%

52%

16%

19%

45%

74%




48

I prefer to keep the present system where we vote for individual candidates for parliament.

I would rather have an electoral system where we vote for a political party for parliament, rather than for individual candidates.

I prefer to keep the present system where we vote for a candidate.

I would rather have an electoral system where political parties received seats in the national parliament in direct proportion to the number of votes it wins.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%

64%

67%

29%

23%



Money and Politics

It takes a great deal of money and skilled people to run an effective political party organization and conduct election

campaigns. Who should be primarily responsible to provide the funds for parties to carry out these activities?

50

Don't Know

Refused to Answer

Foreign Governments

Foreign Organizations

Party Members

Government, Out of Taxpayer Funds

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

10%

2%

7%

9%

37%

35%

Which of the following statements about our political system is closest to your view?

51

Since people are free to decide what to do with their money, people should be able to give as much money as they want to a political party or candidate.

There should be legal limits on how much money any individual or business can donate to a candidate or a political party.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0.53

34%

Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2

For each of the following please indicate whether you think the act is not wrong at all, wrong but understandable or wrong and

punishable?

52

0%20%40%

60%80%

100%

63% 73%

23% 17%11% 7%2% 2%

Wrong and Punishable Wrong But UnderstandableNot Wrong At All Don’t Know


Roles and Expectations of Elected Representatives

Members of Parliament have different responsibilities. Which of the following do you think is the most important responsibility of

your Member of Parliament?

54

Don't Know

None of These

Monitor the President and his Government

Make Laws for the Good of the Country

Help Constituents with their Personal Problems

Deliver Jobs or Development to the Constituency

Listen to Constituents and Represent their Needs

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

3%

0%

3%

11%

7%

11%

64%

Elected local government councilors have different responsibilities. Which of the following do you think is the most

important responsibility of your elected local government councilor?

55

Don't Know

None of These

Monitor the Mayor and his Sub-County Government

Make Laws for the Good of the Sub-County

Help Constituents with their Personal Problems

Deliver Jobs or Development to the Sub-County

Listen to Constituents and Represent their Needs

0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%

5%

2%

2%

4%

15%

18%

54%


Gender, Youth and Politics



57

Men make better political leaders than women, and should be elected rather than women.

Women should have the same chance of being elected to political office as men.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

25%

71%

Strongly Agree / Agree with Statement 1 Strongly Agree / Agree with Statement 2

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?: Women are equally represented in the political decision-making positions

in Uganda.

58

Don’t Know

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Agree

Strongly Agree

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7%

9%

13%

34%

37%

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections for a woman candidate?

59

Don’t Know

Very Unlikely

Somewhat Unlikely

Somwhat Likely

Very Likely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

4%

58%

25%

5%

8%

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections for a candidate younger than 30?

60

Don’t Know

Very Unlikely

Somewhat Unlikely

Somwhat Likely

Very Likely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

5%

28%

24%

16%

26%


Demographics

How interested would you say you are in public affairs?

62

Don't Know

Not at All Interested

Not Very Interested

Somewhat Interested

Very Interested

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

2%

11%

19%

31%

37%

When you get together with your friends or family, would you say that you discuss political matters:

63

Don't Know

Never

Occasionally

Frequently

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1%

32%

51%

16%

How often do you:

64

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

59%

16% 5% 7% 3%

21%

8%11% 3% 3%

Every Day Few Times A Week

Respondent’s Gender

65

Female

Male

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

50%

50%

Respondent’s Age

66

60 and older

50 to 59

40 to 49

30 to 39

18 to 29

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

8%

11%

19%

26%

35%

What is the highest level of education you have completed?

67

No Formal Schooling

Some Primary

Primary Completed

Some Secondary

Secondary Completed

Post Secondary Qualification

Some University

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

13%

30%

14%

22%

9%

8%

4%

www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal

International Republican Institute(202) 408-9450 | [email protected]

http://www.usaid.gov/

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International Republican Institute Public Opinion Survey of Ugandans December 4-23, 2014.

Documents

Transcript of International Republican Institute Public Opinion Survey of Ugandans December 4-23, 2014.