International Outlook for Energy Efficiency in Existing ......World Energy Outlook - 2016 Global...
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© OECD/IEA 2015 Dr Stéphanie Bouckaert EUSEW, June 2016 International Outlook for Energy Efficiency in Existing Buildings
Transcript of International Outlook for Energy Efficiency in Existing ......World Energy Outlook - 2016 Global...
© O
ECD
/IEA
20
15
Dr Stéphanie Bouckaert
EUSEW, June 2016
International Outlook for Energy Efficiency in Existing Buildings
© OECD/IEA 2015
The start of a new energy era?
Universal agreement from COP21 is an historic milestone that can stimulate energy sector innovation
Pledges of almost 190 countries account for almost the entire energy-related emissions
Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014
2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels
Oil & gas is facing second year of falling upstream investment in 2016
Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China
Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction?
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised (WEO-2012)
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Power generation
Buildings
Unrealised energy efficiency potential
Realised energy efficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2015
Efficiency measures on the rise, but significant potential still exists
Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption
Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors; they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done
Industry Steam boilers
Process heat
Motors
Buildings Heating/Cooling
Lighting/Appliances
Transport Cars
Trucks
Ships
10%
20%
30%
40%
19
74
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
14
20
20
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25
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30
20
35
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40
© OECD/IEA 2015
Building Energy Performance
Historic energy consumption in buildings: reality check
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
Few countries have decoupled building’s energy consumption and population growth
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1990 2013 1990 2013 1990 2013 1990 2013 1990 2013 1990 2013 1990 2013
UnitedStates
EuropeanUnion
China India ASEAN Middle East Africa
Energ
y inte
nsity (
MW
h/p
ers
on)
Fin
al en
erg
y u
se (
EJ)
Solar
Commercialheat
Electricity
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Biofuels
Energy perperson
© OECD/IEA 2015
Buildings Sector Energy Demand
Global Building Final Energy Demand in the New Policies Scenario
Global building energy consumption increases by a quarter to 2040 without assertive energy efficiency action
1000
2000
3000
4000
2013 2020 2030 2040
Appliances
Lighting
Cooking
Water heating
Space cooling
Space heating
Mto
e
© OECD/IEA 2015
Global Buildings Outlook
Global building energy growth and savings potential to 2040
More than half of energy reductions needed in the 450 scenario come from heating and cooling
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Appliances
Lighting
Cooking
Water heating
Space cooling
Space heating
New Policies Scenario Mto
e
450 Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2015
Policies needs diverge by region
Residential floor area by region in 2040
Retrofit is key in OECD regions, while codes for new buildings will shape future energy consumption in emerging economies
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60
80
US EU China India ASEAN ME Africa
Bill
ion
m²
Additional to 2040
Existing
in 2013
© OECD/IEA 2015
0
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1990
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2020
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Tota
l Floo
r Ar
ea (
billion
m2 )
New Stock (Compliant)
New Stock (Non-Compliant)
Refurbished Stock
Historic Stock
Total
Global Residential Floor Area Growth and Opportunities
Assertive building codes for new buildings in developing regions are needed
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Tota
l Floo
r Ar
ea (
billion
m2 )
New Stock (Compliant)
New Stock (Non-Compliant)
Refurbished Stock
Historic Stock
Total
Building Envelopes: Challenges and Opportunities
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
Global Residential Floor Area Growth to 2050 (6DS)
In a 6DS world, we would expect continued high levels of non-compliance in building construction and marginal retrofits of existing stock
Building Envelopes: Challenges and Opportunities
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2016
0
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100
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250
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350
400
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Tota
l Floo
r Ar
ea (
billion
m2 )
New Stock (Compliant)
New Stock (Non-Compliant)
Refurbished Stock
Historic Stock
Total
© OECD/IEA 2015
Global Residential Floor Area Growth to 2050 (2DS)
In a 2DS world, far smaller levels of non-compliance and high levels of deep retrofits will contribute to significant energy reductions
Building Envelopes: Challenges and Opportunities
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2016
0
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1990
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2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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2045
2050
Tota
l Floo
r Ar
ea (
billion
m2 )
New Stock (Compliant)
New Stock (Non-Compliant)
Refurbished Stock
Historic Stock
Total
© OECD/IEA 2015
WEO 2016 Milestones and outlines
Energy and Air Quality Special Report
Launch: 27 June 2016
World Energy Outlook - 2016
Global energy trends: Outlooks for oil, gas, coal, power, and energy efficiency; Energy and climate change; Energy and water
Renewables: Renewable energy outlook; Economics of renewables; Integration of renewable energy;
Mexico: Energy in Mexico today; Outlook for Mexico’s energy consumption and energy supply; Implications of Mexico’s energy development
Launch: 16 November 2016
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ECD
/IEA
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www.worldenergyoutlook.org
For more information about IEA buildings work, contact: [email protected]
